Nov 12 2009, 02:20 PM
QUOTE(Talbac @ Nov 12 2009, 01:33 PM)
to be honest, streamyx has built-up so much dissatisfied users that it is not difficult to get those users to switch, hence the results of late. streamyx, it can hardly compete on current or future grounds. right now, streamyx is clogged and people just switch to WiMax for faster connection.
true, fiber connect is the best broadband connection at current technology. however, it is so costly to replace copper with fiber, it is not economical to laydown the fiber to all connection points without guaranteed users. say for every 3 connection points, only 1 sign up for fiber broadband, hence making the laydown cost extremely high. however, fiber broadband will still find its place in corporate offices, etc. houses are increasingly becoming high-rises, and for all i know, fiber are extremely expensive and no apartment or condos (not sure about super-condos) have fibers in place at unit (even new buildings do not have fiber) - meaning, if you stay in a high-rise, you are unlikely to get fiber broadband connection in the foreseeable future. Unlike WiMax, they can provide decent connection at a lower cost regardless of location so long it is in their 'radius'. Once the traffic is near capacity, P1 will simple build a new transmittion tower in the outer radius to improve traffic + widen coverage. The plan is so clear that it is almost definite that P1 will dominant the new broadband users. if everything goes as planned, don't be surprised that it will hit 1.76 by end of 2010.
the green packet management has chosen to exercised the private placements at 1.39, which if it is delayed for another day or two would become 1.45. so this would imply the management value the share at more than 1.45, or else they would not raise their stakes if they do not think they can get more out of their investments. i say 1.43 can buy, the prices may fluatuate a bit, but it is unlikely to go below 1.4 again.
1) All it takes is for TM to offer cheaper broadband/high bandwidth maintaining the same price and GP stock could plunge.true, fiber connect is the best broadband connection at current technology. however, it is so costly to replace copper with fiber, it is not economical to laydown the fiber to all connection points without guaranteed users. say for every 3 connection points, only 1 sign up for fiber broadband, hence making the laydown cost extremely high. however, fiber broadband will still find its place in corporate offices, etc. houses are increasingly becoming high-rises, and for all i know, fiber are extremely expensive and no apartment or condos (not sure about super-condos) have fibers in place at unit (even new buildings do not have fiber) - meaning, if you stay in a high-rise, you are unlikely to get fiber broadband connection in the foreseeable future. Unlike WiMax, they can provide decent connection at a lower cost regardless of location so long it is in their 'radius'. Once the traffic is near capacity, P1 will simple build a new transmittion tower in the outer radius to improve traffic + widen coverage. The plan is so clear that it is almost definite that P1 will dominant the new broadband users. if everything goes as planned, don't be surprised that it will hit 1.76 by end of 2010.
the green packet management has chosen to exercised the private placements at 1.39, which if it is delayed for another day or two would become 1.45. so this would imply the management value the share at more than 1.45, or else they would not raise their stakes if they do not think they can get more out of their investments. i say 1.43 can buy, the prices may fluatuate a bit, but it is unlikely to go below 1.4 again.
2) I am a dissatisfied P1 customer. As much as I dislike TM, $ vs Bandwidth, TM is still the best, unfortunately.
3) 100% sure that GP will need more $ to spend on CAPEX/OPEX, I don't know when the return is going to be.
4) TM is backed by Gov, in spending and in giving them monopoly status.
5) That radius thing, assuming they need to rent and maintain the base station @ RM 5K/month, you need to have 100 customers within the radius to cover the CAPEX. Not including marketing cost, customer care, sales commission etc. How many base station they have? How many subscribers they have?
6) Do a research on "LTE". It is a mobile technology that is better than WiMax, Telco like Maxis and DiGi would probably eat these WiMax players alive. DiGi have 2K employees, consistent revenue and giving out dividends, even Axiata is not bad, GP?
If there is a put warrant for this counter, I definitely put all my $ in.
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