So you believe TTb gonna make 20.4% CAGR in the next 7 years?
He is better than WB......NO ARGUEMENT!

If you want to contribute something useful, you can start by arguing with facts rather than ad hominem attacks.

Or is that too much to ask from you?

No, anyone can comment on what ever they would like to say and readers judge on it. Why stop them spreading their stupid comments? Sometimes it's fun to feed some troll and monkey over here .

Indeed I think I got raise my issues and points but I doubt you read between line or you are just too smart to understand? Maybe you choose not to understand or you just do not get it.

How about you, do you have any useful contribution over here also? If not, you are also 'ad hominem' attacking me.

This post has been edited by kinwing: Nov 16 2012, 02:30 PM

I agree on your part that someone is here to belittle the ICAP performance. He is not like dicussion about ICAP performance. It is wasting time to reply to him.

This post has been edited by Denis: Nov 16 2012, 02:36 PM

Silly dooddah.........

As i have mentioned before, its easy to point out fanstastic gains in a BULL year of 2008.
Thats the reason i brought out the last 4 yaers....did TTB do well? What was his performance?
The KLCI gained in the last four years, went PAST its PEAK in 2008 and YET Icap did not.

How well? ............ yo are not gettin it.

Hows it investors cant buy at high price? Its always a scenario for discussion.
i dont need ICAP to make money for me.......
i guess you are a deluded SHEEPLe waiting for TTb to do a CAGR of 20.4% for the next 7 years.....HAHAHA

Yes, I believe, so I buy. This is my apple.

If u don't believe, then don't buy lor! What for make you life so difficult!

So silly to pay TTB Rm6 mil for buying a dicsount?

---

Added on November 16, 2012, 2:48 pmAND wait another 7 years ti realise the discount? BRILLIANT!

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 16 2012, 02:48 PM

Is it confirmed that iCap will liquidate in 2020? If that's the case, you can consider it as your kids' education fund. (Assuming that they will be in the higher education 7 or 8 years later.)
I'm only worried if TTB wants to earn manager's fees indefinitely.

No idea...........he may enjoy his fees to much to liquidate!

If not mistaken, there is no word of guaranteed that it must/will liquidate in 2020. It may, or may not. Correct me if I am wrong.

Fund manager can come and go as well, like fund manager willingness to manage, or majority shareholder wish to have who to manage.
Fund manager can quit the job as well (the recent saga).

If anyone manage to get enough shareholding then it is major shareholder call then who to manage, how to manage as well.

Very well written.
I like the way u express.
Keep it up!

TTB is recommanding dual listing of ICAP to narrow down the gap between its market price and its NTA.
BTW, it is a norm for closed-end funds to trade below NTA.

I noted that the recent trade volume for ICAP is greater than previous, it is good signal indeed!

A good value posting.
Sad to say is disappointing that we cannot have a good discussion without ego getting in the way.

prophetjul, I have small issue with the numbers you have posted.
ICAP was listed on 17/10/2005.
Its NAV on 20/10/2005 was 0.99.
Its 2012 Annual report was dated 12/9/2012.
NAV on 13/9/2012 was 2.93.
That's a CAGR of 16.77% since listed.

Not sure how you got the CAGR of 18%.
Also in maths, when one compounds for many years, the slightest variance in the growth rate would see a drastic different result.

Here's an assumption that ICAP can grow at CAGR of 16.77% till 2020.

year NAV
2005 0.99 === icap NAV when it was listed
1 2006 1.156023
2 2007 1.349888057
3 2008 1.576264284
4 2009 1.840603805
5 2010 2.149273063
6 2011 2.509706155
7 2012 2.930583878 === where we are now.
8 2013 3.422042794
9 2014 3.995919371
10 2015 4.666035049
11 2016 5.448529127
12 2017 6.362247461
13 2018 7.429196361
14 2019 8.67507259
15 2020 10.12988226 === NAV of ICAP by 2020.

A NAV of 10.13 by 2020?
Possible? We will get to that later.

This is a CAGR of 18%.

year NAV
2005 0.99
1 2006 1.1682
2 2007 1.378476
3 2008 1.62660168
4 2009 1.919389982
5 2010 2.264880179
6 2011 2.672558611
7 2012 3.153619162 === if ICAP compounded at 18% since inception, its NAV would have been 3.15!
8 2013 3.721270611
9 2014 4.391099321
10 2015 5.181497198
11 2016 6.114166694
12 2017 7.214716699
13 2018 8.513365705
14 2019 10.04577153
15 2020 11.85401041 === NAV of ICAP by 2020!!

A NAV of 11.85 if ICAP compounded at 18% since inception!!!

Where is ICAP NAV headed?
CAN ICAP grow at the SAME CAGR for the next 8 years?
ICAP 2012 annual report had some interesting points.

From page 4.
1. "There are no purchases made since 31 May 2011.. "
2. "For the financial year ended 31 May 2012, your Fund sold 4,400 shares of Boustead Holdings
Berhad, 383,000 shares of Fraser & Neave Holdings Berhad, 350,000 shares of Integrax Berhad
and 300,000 shares of Petronas Dagangan Berhad. These sales generated realised gains of
RM8.329 million with a cost of RM3.647 million."
3. In the year ending 31 May 2012, your Fund received 113,800 shares of Pharmaniaga Berhad from
Boustead Holdings Berhad on the basis of one Pharmaniaga share for every 57.5 ordinary shares of
RM0.50 held in Boustead.

My interpretation (this is mine, what's yours? )
Teng Boo is a proclaimed value investor who believes that one should let the power of compounding works for the investor.
But for the fiscal year, Teng Boo, sold or take profit a portion of the fund's stake in several stocks and bought nothing.
My interpretation is that he sees no value in the current market since he bought nothing.
And that he took profit by selling a small portion of the fund's holding on F&N and Petronas Dagangan suggests to me he thinks the stock value is rich and is a good time to take profit.
Which means I thinks he wants to build a war chest to buy stocks once they fall lower.

In the fund's current portfolio at 12/9/12, the following stocks carries the most value.
Petronas Dagangan - 51 million
Padini - 46.5 million
Parkson - 41.8 million
F&N - 41 million
Boustead - 36.3 million

This 5 stocks carries a value of 216.6 million.
ICAP total stock value at 12/9/12 is 269 million. (all this info from page 37)
Cash is 133 million. (page 26)

To say ICAP compound at 18% since listing until 2020, says that ICAP should be around 11.85.
ICAP NAV value now is 2.93.
How many percent increase from 2.93 to 11.85?
With the current stocks ICAP have and its cash position, can Teng Boo do it?

Very nice evaluation! Not so easy to get a nice and friendly discussion without the ad hominien coming in nowadays!

You are right...it should be around 16.77%

You have done many further favours by looking deeper into his investments and come upwith
further questions on his outlandish claims.


So BEGS the question: Can TTB do it?

Can he achieve 19.1% for the next 8 years or so to achieve his bizarre claims?

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 17 2012, 12:29 PM

Ahh Boon, took me quite some time to digest all of your sentences

IMO, with the fund getting bigger, is very hard to get a return at that rate at 18% which TTB claim

With the fund only invested 60-70%, as 130+ million is in cash with RM2.9x NAV (total share with 140million), which the 130+ million represent nearly 30% of the fund NAV, the most can generate 3% (current situation) through FD,
means the other portion of invested money or the portfolio stock needs to work harder or achieve a gain better than 18% in order to achieve a total NAV increment of 18%.

Summarise
About 30% in cash the most can generate is 3%,
The rest about 70% needs to achieve about 24%,
So that you have a total average of near 18%.


Unless the cash is being invested afterwards, buy at low point of the market and reap a good profit, then different story.

I have no comment whether it is hard or not then.

Ahh Tan....



I try write shorter.

Teng Boo's 18% CAGR target.
NAV now is 2.93.
Compounded at 18% for the next 8 years, the NAV would be 11.01.
NAV would have increased by 8.08 or by 375.7%!!!

Can achieve?
One, at least, should know what stocks the fund holds, what the fund is doing (is it selling or buying more?) the past year, the cash level.
Right now, last fiscal year, he sold (or took profit) of some stocks.

The fund stock portfolio at 12/9/12 is valued at 269 million.
The fund hold five main stocks.
Petronas Dagangan - 51 million
Padini - 46.5 million
Parkson - 41.8 million
F&N - 41 million
Boustead - 36.3 million
This 5 stocks carries a value of 216.6 million.
Cash is 133 million.

If Teng Boo hold firms to value investing and use the power of compounding to work for the fund, he's expecting this portfolio to increase by 375% in 8 years time.
Can?

Some scenarios I am thinking... (if wrong say la... cos you know I no investor. )

If he hold...
Petronas Daganan - love the growth story. Solid.
Padini? Errr.....
Parkson? Errrrrrr...
F&N? Now no COKE? How? Properties?
Boustead? I think got potential but can it double or triple its value in 3 years time?

If he waits for market to fall and then buy cheap stuff...
Good idea but if market falls enough for Teng Boo to bargain hunt, this 5 stocks would see some lost in value too.

Sell and buy cheap stocks?
Possible but he hasn't been selling much.....

18% target?
I think I think ... I also agree with you.. hard target.




This post has been edited by Boon3: Nov 17 2012, 05:57 PM

It's always funny to read all the comments here. Supporters of ICAP/TTB will always support whatever TTB said without any questioning as well as dismiss, ridicule, and mock at other people differing views.

Anyway, i feel (lol) I am treading a thin line here because i don't want to be viewed as having an agenda against my ex-employer (yes, they do monitor posts in lowyat forum). Not that i am sucking up to CD, but just being more neutral.

So much has been said about NAV - especially by TTB's supporters. But unless the fund liquidate, what matters is the stock price...

If you buy all the components shares of the KLCI, in exactly the same proportions, not only your capital appreciates, but you also get dividend. When dividend is taken into account, ICAP underperforms the market by an even larger margin.

I have a rookie or newbie investor ask me, I find interesting, below summarise the conversation.

A: what is a ABC closed ended fund
I : Blar blar explain and tell fund is investing in value stock, or undervalued stocks, which can reap good profit over the long term.

A: (Seem understand what I explained), so now the fund holding large amount of cash, the reason?
I : Yes, some fund manager does hold cash for their strategic and marking viewing. As it may wait opportunity to buy as the manager may not that bullish and slight bearish about the market

A: There is a stock traded below its NAV around 20-30%, is it considered undervalued?
I: Yes, by definition, and in theory.

A: The stock is a closed ended fund, so wise to buy below 20-30% of its NAV?
I: It is a bargain.

A: The stock is performing well or having sterling performance since inception, and traded at discount, and the stock is ABC fund itself, so since ABC holding plenty of cash, why not ABC bought its own share, as it is a undervalued stock that traded below 20-30%? Isn't it fund can make even more money and objective is to buy undervalued stock?
Also isn't it ABC fund/stock itself had magnificent performance and perform well?
So isn't it, it is a good target to invest by the fund?

I: ........