It won't go back to premium anymore

hi hpcp and snowball,

There is no point for you guys to argue. Both of you guys have your own views, and i must say, some it's right, and some it's wrong.

Caveat: I'm an ex-ICap staff

This post has been edited by tohff7: Apr 1 2011, 02:05 PM

Oh well, here it goes.

Mr. Tan is not front-loading his newsletter readers
Let's get two things clear first. One, every buy and sell decisions for ICap fund management business is done by Mr. Tan himself. Two, buy or sell call by the newsletter advisory is done by his analysts. Of course, he will supervise, but he usually won't change his analysts' recommendation (only once he changed it as far as i was still there).

Why the conflicting calls between the two? Well, the main reason is because you are referring to a not-frequently-updated stock call list. The only time a buy/hold/sell call of a stock is being reviewed is either when; 1) The stock is being featured in the newsletter; or 2) Quarterly reporting. So, when Mr. Tan sell off a particular stock from his ICap fund due to whatever reason, the old recommendation is still there. And no, he never ask his analysts to issue a report or publish a short note subsequently to reflect his disposal. Hence, it appears that he is front loading, but he is not. You are just looking at an outdated stock call list.

Furthermore, there is no target price in their stock call list, simply because there is none in the first place. So you don't even know when a Buy call stock is already overvalued.

And do you guys really believe that the newsletter have the "power" to push up share price of a particular stock? A piece of advice if you really want to use the newsletter to invest. Just look at the paper portfolio in the newsletter and monitor what is the latest purchase or disposal by him. That is his conviction pick (which will usually be what he buy or sell for his actual fund portfolio). Ignore the stock call list and maybe also the company analysis.

Btw, i am the analyst who put a Hold recommendation on Axiata. Previous Buy call was done by other analyst who left the company shortly after i joined. In between the period i joined the company and issuing a report on Axiata, there is this Axiata rights issue and disposal by Mr. Tan (of which, the Buy recommendation was never updated during this period). Will this clear things up?

No "China Wall". In fact, why need "China Wall" at all in the first place in ICap?
To say investment advisory and fund management business is run by different group of staff is half-truth. After all, Mr.Tan is the fund manager, and he is also the head of research.

Mr. Tan have a team of analysts to cover stocks, and the main purpose is now more towards churning out report to fill in the weekly newsletter, rather than finding investment ideas for his fund. This is especially true after majority of his senior analysts left the company. On the fund management side, practically there is no one else except Mr.Tan.

This post has been edited by tohff7: Apr 2 2011, 12:02 AM

hmm..go to the Job & Careers and see lor...

Dear 2-post forumer, you do know the return that you quote for Public Bank (based on point-to-point share price) do not include the return from dividend?

Anyway, back to topic. Long-term performance is important, but one should also look at recent performance, IMO.

You are entitled to your view

Not all people have the chance to invest at inception. When ICAP was launched, i was still studying in college.

Let say an investor wants to invest now. Yes, he/she will still look at how the fund performance since inception (7 years ago), but what also matters to him/her is how the fund performance in recent years (1-3 years). Am i wrong?

Taking this to the extreme i.e. Berkshire Hathaway. Do you only look at the performance since inception, which is 46 years ago? If yes, then i nth to say . But i will suggest that you write a letter to Mr. Tan, because by your logic, he shouldn't compare his fund performance since inception with Berkshire performance starting from the same day. Likewise, we shouldn't compare ICAP performance with a particular stock/fund at other date because only return since inception is important.

Disclosure: Yours truly does not have any interest, or going to have any interest in the foreseeable future, in iCapital.biz Bhd share. Any conflict of interest, if any, is that yours truly used to be an ex-employee of Capital Dynamics.

Cheers

exactly my point. theoretically, if PBBank don't pay out dividend doesn't mean share price will be lower. With higher capital ratio, they can actually grow their loan books faster. Well, just another assumption

True (also higher fees btw). That's why i was pointing out to merger that you can't compare point-to-point return just like that without taking into account the dividend from PBBank

Saturday AGM and EGM will be very interesting. Laxey will definitely asked for voting by poll. Assuming Laxey and London are in together, their combined stake is 18.7m shares.

Typical crowd for iCap AGM is 500-600 ppl. Let say the turnout is good with 800 ppl. Each shareholders will need to have about 24,000 shares in order to collectively win/defeat the voting by poll.

Worrying? Fret not. By now, i think there might have been "calls" to "specially notify" individuals in the Top 30 shareholders to attend the AGM. Together with other shareholders, they can defeat the nomination of outside director.

Worrying that people might sway to Laxey proposal in order to realise quick return? Hardly a chance (Laxey crucial mistake). iCap shareholders are true believers in TTB. Just ask anybody who attended the previous AGM.

Haha. Seriously what Laxey wrote (about share buyback) do have points, no?

Well, i reserved my comments on TTB. Let's just hope things go smoothly this Sat.

To the extent of painting Laxey as a raider/evil/bad performing hedge-fund, why not address the core issue, which is doing share buyback for the fund?

Can't help but keep thinking about this scene. One of my favourite scene.

Gordon Gekko "Greed is Good".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF_iorX_MAw&feature=related

Told you guys so lol

It's always funny to read all the comments here. Supporters of ICAP/TTB will always support whatever TTB said without any questioning as well as dismiss, ridicule, and mock at other people differing views.

Anyway, i feel (lol) I am treading a thin line here because i don't want to be viewed as having an agenda against my ex-employer (yes, they do monitor posts in lowyat forum). Not that i am sucking up to CD, but just being more neutral.

He followed typical fund management fees of 1.5%. Just that split to 2 different companies - 0.75% to CDAM for fund management services, and 0.75% to CDSB for advisory

He re-invested the proceed from Axiata into Astro, which then get privatised in less than a year.

Can't remember how much was the gain but i think might have covered for his losses in Axiata