If Putin is still president, sanctions will still bite everyone though. Commodities and oil prices will remain high.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Apr 22 2022, 07:58 PM

The Boglehead's take: It's all just noise, barely a blip in 10 years much less 30, stay the course.

Aha~ boglehead thread in lowyat forum.

Btw, does anyone here implement factor investing in their portfolio?

15% of my portfolio is small cap value-tilt (about twice the size of normal small cap allocation) implemented via factor filtered small cap ETFs provided by Avantis in a 60% US 40% ex-US ratio. (AVUV 9%, AVDV 6%)

Personally I don't believe it's a move a true purist Boglehead's would do, so I wouldn't recommend that actively to anyone here. But my reasoning for this allocation is that:

1. VWRA do not contain any small caps.

2. Large-medium caps and small-caps rotates in performance much like International and US performance rotates.

3. Unfiltered small caps Unfiltered small caps often have too much bad stocks dragging it's performance down.

So I'm only taking slightly more compensated risk to complement my portfolio and every so slightly increased the long term (~20y) expected rewards (~0.5% or so).

However my strong recommendation is still to avoid complexity as much as possible, and go with a life-long 2-fund portfolio of VWRA+(VAGU/AGGU).

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: Apr 24 2022, 03:48 PM

oh cool, you're implementing the Rational Reminder Model Portfolio! I was looking into this but was a bit hesitant when i found out that AVDV does not invest in emerging markets (no China & South East Asia ) there is the VSS (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap ETF) but that is just small cap blend, not small cap value. that said, maybe EM market too inefficient so it's a challenge for the fund managers, lol.

Ah, I'm only implementing it on the small caps part of my portfolio (VWRA+AVUV+AVDV), while a proper RR factor tilted portfolio would apply it to large and medium caps too.

Emerging markets are generally one hell of a mixed bag leaning towards mostly negative anyway, so I am only interested in the large caps of EMs which are already included in VWRA - and I don't need factor tilting for that.

And yeah, I don't really see a reason to buy generic small cap or small cap blends - even among factor filtered ones, Avantis (basically Dimensional really) seems to be the only ones implementing the Fama French asset pricing model properly.

Still, kinda happy to meet folks who knows about Rational Reminder on this forum too.

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: Apr 24 2022, 10:58 PM

With major indices going on a discount recently, I'd imagine there are a few investors thinking whether to act on the price changes or not, so here's my 2 cents:

It doesn't matter if you are a Boglehead. Stay the course.

Invest early, invest often, stay invested, time in the market beats timing the market.

That is to say, set up an amount you are comfortable to DCA in fixed interval, amend that amount when your financials changes. If you receive a windfall/a sudden sum of extra money that can be invested, invest all of them as early as you can.

If you insist on "buying on a discount"...

Best case scenario, you save a few bucks per share buying at the absolute dip, but the chances that you buying at the "right time" every time for the rest of your portfolio's life span is basically 0 so it's all gonna even out.

Worst case scenario... you miss the best days of the market that almost single handedly defines your total returns. miss the best days of the market.




What if you just bought in at the worst possible time? The world's worst market timer

Should I hold onto my cash and wait for it to drop more? Buy the dip! (For lower returns?)

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: Apr 27 2022, 10:16 AM

Waiting for fund to buy in again. Sea of red this few weeks

Liquidated my SA to go full DIY

🤤

This post has been edited by AthrunIJ: Apr 27 2022, 10:33 AM

What will.u be buying for your DIY portfolio?

VWRA sort of growth stock and some REITs in Singapore as dividend stock.

Probably 2vwra to 1 Singapore REITs for now as monthly funds and forex is not very good at the moment.

After maybe when i achieved about 10k sgd of REIT then I will add/rotate to Singapore bank as dividend stock also.

All in all VWRA as growth and Singapore stocks as dividends stock for now. I still love my dividend stocks 🤤

By end of this year's I would probably also sell some local burse portfolio and continue to pump into above stocks. 😆

At least do not need to pay fees and can keeps most of the dividends.
🤤

Not sure if there is some comment regarding SA simple vs any other FD, MMF or bond that can be added in as diversification.👀

Do you have any comments?

This post has been edited by AthrunIJ: Apr 28 2022, 08:13 AM

Up to 10% of your portfolio can put into Stablecoins to earn 15-20% APY. If got guts can try Anchor Protocol for 19.5% (myself I'm using USDC in Finblox for 15%). Our latest discussions here: https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/5263492/+30

As to gambling in Bitcoin or other cryptos, I would suggest short term trade. Right now don't see them shooting up like last time. Or can avoid this altogether and just focus on stablecoins. IMO USDC is the safest due to tied to real USD and treasuries. I have less trust on algorithmic stablecoins like UST (Anchor).

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Apr 28 2022, 10:38 AM

Block chain tech I will invest in.

Coins on the other hand nope until there is some regulations. But thanks for the info 👍

My portfolio is the exact opposite of yours.
Not only is my portfolio heavily skewed toward size, value, and momentum, but I'm also underweight US stock and overweight ex-US stocks. Yes, I sin a lot
I only hold 15% of VWRA, 33% small value ETF (AVUV 10%, AVDV 10%, AVES 13%), 22% momentum ETF (11% QMOM, 11% IMOM), the remaining 30% are bonds.

This is definitely not a portfolio Boglehead recommends, but I think my decisions on these allocations is kinda reasonable. FFirst, there's plenty of evidence that the US is by far the most expensive stock market, and ex-US are dirt cheap. Given the current valuation of the US market, I think it makes more sense to overweight ex-US market rather than ‘blindly’’ following the market-cap weights.

Besides, many studies have found out that size, value and momentum are able to increase return over the long run (20-30 years). I do acknowledge that the factor investing might leads to decades of underperforming market returns (such as the poor performance of value stocks in the past decade), but for someone with an investment horizon of over 30 years, this shouldn't be a big deal.

If you want a small-cap ETF in emerging markets, you might consider DGS. However, DGS has high expense ratio of 0.63%, and the high dividend payout strategy is not friendly to non-US investors like us.

Another emerging market value ETF is AVES, but it is more skewed towards mid-cap and large-cap companies.

I'm having a serious case of FOMO here with most index funds going on a discount of late. I just finished my home renovation and so need cash for paying the contractors. But also hurting from seeing everything being on discount... Fellow Bogleheads, anyone been in this situation before? What did you do to stop yourself from doing something stupid like liquidating certain "safer" emergency funds like backup FD to put into index funds at this time?

because, what is low now can still goes lower or stayed low for a long duration of time,..

these certain emergency funds has its purposes in your overall wealth portfolio... has their purpose changed since they are 1st set up?

unless that emergency funds has a value that could last your > 3 yrs or you can access your money in EPF soon...that is another equation in question liao...

It might go down even lower. Estimate another 4 more times interest rate will rise by Fed. As long inflation level is high.

You can prepare by putting some cash in IBKR, to prepare to buy when u feel it's the right time.

lol, I had the exact same dilemma! Just think of every horrible scenario that involves touching your emergency fund and project it happening in the next few days. Quite morbid but it worked for me, haha.

Previously anything China don't touch now it is soon anything US don't touch. Wait it will go down further. Emergency fund don't touch please

Now I am touching countries outside US China small capital to try diversify away from China,US for new investment. Existing already invested stay put.

Don't time the market. When in doubt, zoom out.

Nobody knows if it's going to go up or down tomorrow - you could be dropping 100k into current price thinking it's 30% off, but it could just as well be the best price you will see in 10 years. Or, the ATH you bought at next month could be the last time you ever see this price for the rest of your life.

Let's say you miss this "dip" and the market goes up 10% in the following months when you can finally buy in again - the difference in 10-20 years is minimal at best, because you only won one coin toss, you will still need to go through the rest of the coin tosses.

Emergency fund is emergency fund, if it isn't an emergency, don't touch it. It's there to safe guard your investment and it's a key player in your portfolio.

Just make your regular deposits every month, do a lump sum if you had a windfall that you don't need right now. Don't invest money you need. Close the app and live your life, don't look at the market every day.

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: May 1 2022, 02:49 PM