Wow. Thanks so much everyone. I didn’t expect so many responses. You have all helped strengthen my resolve it’s hard to not time the market, but it’s what I’ll try to do moving forward.

Yea if you invest long term 5-10 years at least shouldn’t be a problem. Will recover any paper losses that time.

US economy will stabilise once inflation back to normal and Fed calms down. Ukraine war can’t last forever too..

The index fund concept was a novel one in the 70s, and many fund managers laughed at Bogle for his maiden First Index Fund. It was under subscribed, labelled as being unAmerican, a fund that is content with market return rather than seeking outperformance.

Hindsight is 20 20. If Bogle tried that in the 30s and 40s, the same era as Graham, both will very likely amend their strategies given the severe market condition at that time.

Fun fact: Graham was on margin on peak 28. He loss half of the fortune anyway soon after heeding a teacher to quickly liquidate his margin position. He became very defensive in his investing approach then, the popular book which then also influence the early approach of Buffett, ie the cigarbutt 40cents for a dollar investing.

The index fund concept is nice in theory but I notice its flaw. If majority of the stocks in the index perform poorly the index fund will reflect that accordingly too e.g kweb ETF saga. So this bring me to think there should be some active management to decide which stocks are to be included in the index. It cannot be say change once every few months? The word active will scare ppl as index supposed to be passive investing

ben felix says that when you buy an ETF, buy the general ETF and not industry specific ones. don't try to pick and choose. dominos actually outperformed all the other tech stocks

should be this video, sorry i've no time to double check. his videos are worth checking anyway

This post has been edited by Medufsaid: May 2 2022, 07:42 PM

Yeap. As far as Bogleheads are concerned, when we mention "index funds" - we mean market weighted, broad based index. That's basically VT or its analogues only. With these index funds getting a meteoric rise in popularity, active fund managers has been trying to getting a piece of the pie by perverting the term, on top general investor confusion between Index Funds and ETF to muddle the discussion.

Sector betting is highly discouraged, that's why you don't ever see a proper Bogleheads recommending QQQ, KWEB, or god forbid, ARK funds ETFs.

There's investing, and then there's gambling, and degenerate gambling.

A great add-on to my previous post.

"If you’re excited about an investment, it’s probably not a good investment."

This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: May 5 2022, 01:29 AM

Qqq have outperform the sp500 by miles for years and will continue to do so in the future. If you believed those tech companies with net margin of 30-50% cannot outperform companies with mari of say 7%

i was curious about your statement so i went to Portfolio Visualizer to verify. results below, dividend reinvested. like you said, the QQQ did incredibly well vs the S&P500 from 2010 - Present.

but stretch the time period from 2000 - Present and the story is a little different. QQQ (very slightly) underperforms the S&P500, lol.

but yea, who knows what the future might hold.

This post has been edited by encikbuta: May 5 2022, 10:25 AM


Attached thumbnail(s)

https://gdcdyn.interactivebrokers.com/Unive...iew?formdb=4289




If this applies to Irish domiciled LSE listed ETF, this is gonna be big for those who are buying VUSD purely because it has lower per share price.

so i guess the dot com crash made it underperform for many years.

If u bought QQQ at the peak in 2000, you will only broke even 15 years later.

Let's hope the Nov 21 peak won't take so long .. 😆


This post has been edited by Cubalagi: May 7 2022, 09:25 PM

Hello all Boglehead sifu here

What are the effective method to prepare for next economic crisis/stock market crash? Asking for more general in a very long term, anything possible to happen will happen, consider it already happened many time in history.

-considering events like 1997 or 2008 crisis, global index drawdown could be >50% and take years to recover. Holding a fully diversified equity portfolio might hardly avoid that.
-deliberate allocation to gold, US treasury or other kind of asset particularly useful for crashes
-always have some dry powder ready
-"I can smell it before stock market crashes!"

While waiting for value added responses, I google
"how to set up an investment portfolio in anticipation of market crashes"
https://www.google.com/search?q=how+to+set+...le-gws-wiz-serp

Planning for crash like1929 - bogleheads.org - forum
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&...Zw3Riqje1Fc3B0I

Standard Bogleheads answers are having a healthy asset allocation in Bonds/MMF/Inflation hedges that can either (1) rebalance into cheap stocks or (2) keep you liquid for prolonged market downturns so you aren't pressured into selling stocks at their worst prices. Keep in mind, if the market does go through a 80%+ downturn, chances of a person keeping their job isn't high either. However, if you already have emergency funds and safe allocations in your portfolio to help you weather the storm, a big ugly event like that might also counter-intuitively reduce your cost of living through deflation, impacting your savings/emergency fund a lot less than you'd think.

The best case scenario? You don't read financial news, you keep your job, you don't check your balance and just sit through the bad years oblivious and come out far richer.

JL Collins has a good write up regarding "The Big Ugly Event" that is a good read if you are interested.

As for "timing" the crash and holding dry powder for it.... well, that's far from what a Bogleheads could do. Again, no one can truly predict the market, the market could rally by 50% the day you liquidated everything to cut loss. I am sure those who lost money "cutting loss" during the covid dip is still feeling the sting.



This post has been edited by Hoshiyuu: May 10 2022, 01:56 PM

Keep calm and keep on DCA.

Now to slowly save up fund for the next buy. 🤤

Discount everywhere yet no fund currently...

Depends on what you are prepping for:

Financial crisis: USD, Treasuries

Stagflation: Gold, Commodities

Recession/Deflation : USD, Treasuries

It's not enough to be have a fully diversified equities portfolio to protect vs a massive drawdown, you need diversification across asset classes.

I'm not a Boglehead n I actively manage my portfolio allocation across these asset classes.

Saw this post in Reddit today... https://endlessmetrics.substack.com/p/when-...snt-work-an?s=r

Hmm wondering.

MMF is like a stock where you can buy and trade right. Is there an ETF of MMF?
As in the low risk and low return to park money?

yup https://www.investopedia.com/articles/etfs-...16-shv-near.asp