I also support
I'm not a Bogle head as I am more active,, but I do use passive instruments (ETF) a lot. My portfolio has more % in ETFs compared to stocks or mutual funds.
Bogleheads Local Chapter [Malaysia Edisi]
Bogleheads Local Chapter [Malaysia Edisi]
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Feb 9 2022, 11:15 AM
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#1
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I also support
I'm not a Bogle head as I am more active,, but I do use passive instruments (ETF) a lot. My portfolio has more % in ETFs compared to stocks or mutual funds. |
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Feb 11 2022, 09:15 PM
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#2
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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 11 2022, 08:35 PM) 4. We have access to EPF/SSPN as amazing pseudo-bond options. This is the most important thing to us Malaysian Boglehead. I would love to get comments, thoughts and counter point to reasons #4. What you are missing out is the capital gain you get from bond funds (in particular Treasuries). And this capital gains happen when the economy starts to slow down or is in a recession, which is the time equities do badly. This gain is on top of the interest you receive. Eg compare the performance of SPx and TLT between early 2019 to end March 2020. In 2019, global economy started to slow down and then got into a recession (by covid). |
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Feb 11 2022, 10:26 PM
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#3
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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 11 2022, 10:07 PM) I'm not sure if the performance listed at fund pages include both coupons and capital gains, but if it does give me around 3% or above overall there's an argument to be made to not put money into SSPN but bonds instead, given that MYR is circling the drain and threatening a dive 24/7 with such weak confidence in Malaysia market and it's government... Total return is just the combination of capital gains n interest.But during period I mentioned, (Jan 2019-April 2020), TLT which is a US Bond ETF provided about 35% capital gains. The interest /dividends is probably about 3% only. During the same period , SPx was down about -10%. It would be a great time to rebalance, n reallocate into SPx. P/S I'm not a Boglehead as Im more active going in and out. Hoshiyuu liked this post
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Feb 12 2022, 09:27 AM
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#4
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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 11 2022, 11:53 PM) Haha was considering VAGU but a lot of people seem to think buying bonds before 40 is a mistake since you want to let equities do most of the heavy lifting when you're still able to take risks. Currently considering 100% VWRA on my IBKR as I slowly transition my other investments (FSMOne, SA, Bursa stocks etc...) over as they hopefully turn green. Unfortunately entered SA @ ATH so it'll be quite a long wait If u go 100%, you must be mentally prepared to experience volatility, including something like a 30% or more fall in your portfolio. Most people can't handle that. |
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Feb 12 2022, 12:59 PM
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#5
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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 12 2022, 12:47 PM) Me included. I’m waiting for a real crash to test my resolve. I tested StashAway’s thematic portfolio and also a UT with Ark Innovation’s funds and decided they're not for me when ARKK dropped 40-50% from my highest entry price. I’m still waiting to see my risk appetite when it comes to purely index fund volatility, although common sense seems to be that the swing should be smaller because of the total world nature of VWRA, but like I mentioned, we’ll see The swing could be smaller, but it still dropped about 30% in March 2020. VWRA doesn't have a long enough track record to extend to the GFC. But during the GFC, a similar strategy ETF like ACWI dropped about 50%.This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 12 2022, 01:04 PM KingArthurVI liked this post
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Feb 12 2022, 08:36 PM
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#6
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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 12 2022, 04:12 PM) Yeah the emotions aspect is of course the age-old big question, of one’s risk tolerance. I don’t claim to fully know my limits either. One other way may be to increase bond exposure as I start to feel more uncertain? I’m honestly not sure if that’s counterproductive behavior or not yet. Bogleheads will call that market timing, which is against their principles. Hoshiyuu liked this post
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Feb 12 2022, 10:54 PM
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#7
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Feb 12 2022, 11:03 PM
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#8
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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 12 2022, 10:57 PM) When growing older I suppose. That’s my main concern is after 40, how much to allocate in bonds. But seems like Malaysia has quite a few different options aside from bonds Ok. Changing portfolio allocation as you age is not market timing. I mentioned earlier that those alternative bond options lack the capital gain feature of bond funds. This s what you need to reduce portfolio volatility. This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 12 2022, 11:04 PM KingArthurVI liked this post
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Feb 14 2022, 02:39 PM
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#9
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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 14 2022, 02:10 PM) If u r the type who is not limited to US market, I can suggest Abfmy Singapore bond ETF listed on SGX for a safe heaven play.It invests in SG government bonds, which is AAA rated country (higher than US). You get interests which is a bit higher than SG FD and, depending on market, can even be higher than US Treasuries. And, more importantly, there is no witholding tax. As of yesterday, SGS 10 year yield 1.93% and US 10 year Treasuries yield 1.95%. Pretty close. KingArthurVI liked this post
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Feb 14 2022, 03:23 PM
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#10
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QUOTE(sgh @ Feb 14 2022, 03:02 PM) While ABF SG BOND ETF (A35) is safe the latest traded price is close to like 5 years ago in 2017. For such ETF/stock I generally won't buy becuz it don't move. Imagine you bought in 2017 and DCA 5 years later the share price at 2022 is back to 2017 ? Some could argue add more just to get the half yearly dividends of cuz but I think otherwise. To me long term is the investment must overall be on the rising trend not go back down. It moves up only when economy goes bad. When economy improves it goes down, and then will remain roughly stable..until economy goes bad again. This inverse relationship with equities, is the important thing when it comes to diversification. During that month in March 2020, global equities markets dropped 30%. This one was up 2% in that month. In 2008 GFC, global equities market dropped 50%.This one was up 7%. N while u wait for these recessions, u earn the dividends, which is above FD rate. This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 14 2022, 03:24 PM Hoshiyuu liked this post
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Feb 14 2022, 03:33 PM
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#11
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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 14 2022, 03:06 PM) Out of curiosity, thoughts on ABF Malaysia Bond Index Fund? Also, which platform do you use to buy SGX stuff? Most platform I know do charge a rather hefty fee for SGX access. QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 14 2022, 03:18 PM) Abfmy can be decent as well if u know the timing.As the Malaysian economy started to slow down in 2019, Abfmy returned 8.74%. 2020 it was 7.32%. This is total return (price and dividends). Not bad at all. I will probably avoid it for now for the time being as Malaysian economy recovers n BNM hikes. Malaysia is behind Singapore in monetary tightening. But there could be entry point next year. This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 14 2022, 03:35 PM |
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Feb 14 2022, 05:09 PM
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#12
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QUOTE(sgh @ Feb 14 2022, 04:15 PM) Thanks for sharing. Also the reason why I am not a big fan of bond. As you pointed out, equities drop 30%, bond up only 2% ? equities drop 50% bond up only 7% ? And that is your monies will be tied up for quite a lot of years which can be used to invest to get higher returns like equities etc in good times. It's 2% because the 30% drop was fast, within a month. So it's 2% in a month In another SG forum, I have asked can the definition of "bond" be stretched further like bank FD, insurance endowment plans, CPF (Msia EPF) etc with guaranteed capital protected investment? If yes then the so called "bond allocation" need not be strictly confined to bond or bond ETF or bond mutual fund. If u take a look at the whole 2020, Abfsg total return was 7.9%. quite respectable, considering it didn't give u a near heart attack in March 2020. Compare this with the STI which still closed -13% in 2020. Those other things u mentioned are not bonds tho. So it has different behaviors. I'm not a Boglehead (far from it), I view my portfolio like a football team. I have defenders, midfielders n strikers. N I tend to switch formations depending on market conditions. So I don't have a fixed bond allocation like a Boglehead. |
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Feb 15 2022, 09:06 AM
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#13
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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 14 2022, 04:36 PM) Same at as we’ll as with you never liked bonds and I rather buy commodities stapled ETF or REITs instead of bonds as timing is important because it is difficult to get out bonds without incurring any minor losses QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 15 2022, 01:42 AM) In fact I bought REITs and Staples during the pandemic crash and it was major red all along until recently I sold them off recently early this year when it was hitting 52 week high Buying during pandemic? That shouldn't be too bad. (Why did u sell btw?)Just need to find the right time to buy again now with geo news running amok now The test for a real defensive asset is what happen if u bought before the pandemic/recession? For eg. The Singapore REITs index dropped 30% in from Feb-March 2030, in line with the broader market. Basically kaput as well. This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 15 2022, 09:08 AM |
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Feb 15 2022, 02:48 PM
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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 15 2022, 01:25 PM) You brought up a good point here. SA Simple / Versa or other MMF locally, their returns are kinda on par with international bond markets, right? I'm pulling this out of my ass probably, but last I checked US long-term treasury yield was 1.9x or 2.x%? If they're on par then perhaps Versa would work well But..but..local MMF is in that hated currency..MYR 😁/S But seriously l, if u want to compare MYR MMF then it should be with MYR Bonds. Malaysia 10 year MGS is 3.75% now. |
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Feb 15 2022, 03:10 PM
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#15
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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 15 2022, 02:50 PM) Versa's still great for emergency fund though, it's what I use them for. I'd rather not have to go through remittance in an emergency. U should trust MGS more than any local MMF and even FD tho..MGS issued in MYR, govt can always print MYR.But yeah, if I wanted bonds I would get non-MYR denominated bonds just because the coupon payment might not even recoup inflation If I am being honest I trust MGS as much as I trust SC, that's to say I'd rather trust some other country's counterpart Btw u can also consider USD money market ETF as a defensive option.eg SHV. |
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Feb 15 2022, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(alexkos @ Feb 15 2022, 02:43 PM) Just a quick one. Our EPF is mandated by law to deliver at least 2.5% return every year. Also, fund composition normally hovers around 50% equity, 45% bond, and 5% cash. Agree with this.There's less discussion on incorporating EPF as part of our asset allocation. Our western counterpart have their 401k and IRA stuff alike. With penalty fee, they can withdraw their 401k earlier to meet extraordinary financial challenge like the pandemic. For us, there's no way to withdraw unless one decides to leave the country. As our EPF fund is illiquid until age 55, I exclude them in my typical 70/30 asset allocation. For me, I also exclude my emergency fund. Other deposits n financial investments I consider part of my 100%. |
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Apr 4 2022, 09:15 AM
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#17
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QUOTE(sgh @ Apr 3 2022, 06:17 PM) Some oldbirds told me many years ago when I started investment "only invest with monies you can afford to lose" else just stick to bank FD and other lower return but capital guaranteed investment instruments. There is hardly any high returns capital guaranteed instruments and via legal means of cuz. That will result in an extremely conservative portfolio wouldn't it?Many years later that sentence still hold true based on my experience. |
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Apr 4 2022, 09:45 PM
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#18
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Apr 28 2022, 07:54 AM
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May 7 2022, 09:24 PM
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