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 Bogleheads Local Chapter [Malaysia Edisi]

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Davidtcf
post Feb 10 2022, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(Pewufod @ Feb 9 2022, 11:59 PM)
thank you for spending the time
was just bouncing ideas around
my initial intention was to get exposed to US stocks particularly in tech (qqq) and value stocks (cspx) then add a little bit of global flavour via (VWRA)

but after reading your analysis, it seems it would make more sense to me to just buy VWRA alone
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buy VUAA if you want lower cost for S&P 500. ETF managed by Vanguard and it is growing fast. Irish Domiciled and dividend reinvesting also.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 10 2022, 09:42 AM
Davidtcf
post Feb 11 2022, 10:29 PM

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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 11 2022, 07:25 PM)
One thing I'm curious is how much fellow Bogleheads are allocating on bonds? I'm almost 30 y/o so still have quite a ways to go. There are some people on r/Bogleheads suggesting "age minus 25 in bonds" rather than Bogle's "age in bonds" due to equities' tendencies to outperform bonds over the long term, and to only lean into bonds when you're closer to 40+

For now I'm not holding any bond ETFs, but I have the Amanahraya Syariah Trust Fund on FSMOne (Islamic sukuk fund) that I'm debating if I should keep or sell eventually in favor of something like VAGU
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Bonds are for old age people to buy.. they grow slow and steady.
I prefer dividend investing if I’m an old 60-70 yr old dude one day.. pick a bunch of safe dividend stocks in SG and MY and keep DCA into them will do. Or if lazy just put some money into FD or EPF.

When younger better to go for growth stocks or ETFs. We still have time on our side. VWRA is a good choice. I personally prefer CSPX/VUAA more (S&P 500). Some would invest in SWRD and EIMI as this would cover both developed and developing markets.
Davidtcf
post Feb 12 2022, 10:48 AM

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What bond to buy that are good? So far I see the bond ETFs not doing so well also. Might as well just continue DCA in good stocks or ETFs.
Davidtcf
post Feb 13 2022, 01:14 AM

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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 12 2022, 11:02 PM)
Making decision on feeling and tinkering with your portfolio too often is detrimental more often than not.

Portfolio success rate are often much more fragile on investor behavior than whether it makes another 0.5% more than the other fund.

I wouldn't go to the extreme length of one of Bogle's anecdotes, where he recommended someone to just deposit and never peek until 30 years later.

But you should have a an investment policy statement, documenting what you hold, why you hold them (this is very important when you are tempted to switch to other asset), and under what conditions you are allowed to change them (e.g. net worth, age). Having it and having the discipline to follow through will prevent your "appetite changes" after a major loss affecting your portfolio.

If you allow yourself to switch assets and allocation at will, you are more likely to cause damage and decrease your portfolio success rate.

And, you need to review the conditions you've set for yourself too. "I'll increase my bond allocation when market feels uncertain" is a rather poor reason in my opinion. Your asset allocation should be based on something more fundamental, like "If another 2008 happen, I do not believe I can endure an extended 30% drawdown. I can stomach 15% drawdown at best and according to portfolio backtester, that meant (sample number) having 40% in bonds".

Then perhaps you would have a clause that "I will only allow once allocation change per year when the decision is well reviewed and at least 3 months has passed since the decision is made and it remains logically sound".

Finally, you execute the change while rebalancing your portfolio on such dates to save on fees and hit multiple bird with one stone.

At least, that's what I do myself and I am interested to receive opinions on that thought process.
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So means buying bonds is to reduce chance of drawdown for overall portfolio? Since I notice they don’t fluctuate much. While earning steady dividends at the same time?

I notice bond related still get taxed 30% on dividends if buy US domiciled. Need to hunt for Irish domiciled to reduce tax down to 15%

I’m in late 30s but feel I can stomach the risk. I set aside 2-3 months of my savings in case if anything happens. One day if I retired will definitely look into bonds.


Davidtcf
post Feb 13 2022, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 13 2022, 01:37 AM)
It's not to reduce chance of drawdown, it's reducing the amount of drawdown when a bear market happens because bonds is a different asset class.
e.g. if you had portfolio A 100 Equities : 0 Bonds and portfolio and a 50 Equities : 50 Bonds portfolio, then when a 50% market drop happens, Portfolio A would lose 50% of its value but Portfolio B would only lose about 25% of its value, roughly.

A higher amount of equity will obviously bring you higher return, but the higher you go the more diminished is the reward-per-risk so to say. By having 10-20% in bond no matter how young you are helps reduce maximum portfolio drawdown and doubly serve as a balance mechanism to ensure you buy low, sell high.

My target bond is VAGU - Vanguard Global Aggregate Bd UCITS ETF USD Hgd Acc, which is Irish domicile, has only 15% witholding tax.

Side note, people often equate "risk tolerance" = "how far I can accept temporary losses". But in reality when a real, extended bear market happen, it quickly goes beyond "emotional tolerance" but become a physical problem of "how long I can survive without liquidating my equities at a loss" - and you don't know if its 3 days, 3 months, or 3 years. Most people barely have an emergency fund of 6 months of expense as it is.
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Thanks.. good info there.

Found this article that explain more on difference of individual bond vs bond ETF:
https://www.etf.com/etf-education-center/et...its%20portfolio.

No idea how to buy individual bond.. have not tried. Really that difficult? Individual bond can ensure capital return.. as long wait for its maturity.

Found a thread on Reddit saying AGGU etf is better due to longer in the market:
https://www.reddit.com/r/eupersonalfinance/...utm_name=iossmf

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 13 2022, 11:33 AM
Davidtcf
post Feb 13 2022, 08:35 PM

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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 13 2022, 03:23 PM)
I don't think direct bond is easy to buy at low amounts, but I wouldn't know much about that regardless.

From a liquidity and longevity standpoint AGGU is pretty much widely accepted as the better option, as well as AGUG. VAGU is a pure personal preference since Vanguard reduces ongoing cost when possible on their own.

In general I do believe Bond ETFs are much more easier to work with, and easier to sell when you need the cash and doesn't miss out on coupons as much when done so.
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Thanks will consider either bond etf once I research further.

Yea tried to search for individual bonds to buy some US gov bond could cost usd3k just for one bond. Also need to have willing buyer if wanna sell a bond. Some like SG bond need to wait gov to issue a bond after a few mths. Everything so complicated about them. I think to simplify things just leave it to a bond ETF.

Found some good videos today as this topic now pique my interest:





The first video more reliable. Second video Kelvin feels he don’t need bonds due to SG retirement fund, but shows an important part which is suggested bond ratio in one’s portfolio.. in Reddit someone else mention is your age -10 = how much percent of bonds one should have.



This couple instead forgo bonds completely due to some research they quote. The comments below the video are interesting to read. Many disagree and say bonds have a role to play.
So in the end depends what you’re comfortable with, and stick with the plan.

I’m thinking locally to substitute bond we could buy fixed deposit since those are guaranteed returns? If a FD is offering good rate would be wise to go ahead? But yea downside is we’re using MYR which any day might plunge lower.

Will look into SG to see if got any good dividend distributing type bond etf.. since SG don’t charge taxes on dividends.
Edit: best SG bond etf is - ABF SG bond etf. Performance is similar to AGGU etf so depends which u prefer or can just get both.

Found an article that mentioned that it is better to invest in short term bonds when interest rates are expected to rise:
https://www.im.natixis.com/us/portfolio-con...-term-bond-etfs

Found a good short term bond etf which is IBTU or IB01. One is accumulating another distributing. Reason for price difference of USD 5 vs USD 100 per etf: https://www.reddit.com/r/eupersonalfinance/...utm_name=iossmf

Other list of good short term bonds here (need to ownself search for UCITS Irish domiciled counterpart): https://seekingalpha.com/article/4379128-be...1hoCproQAvD_BwE

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 14 2022, 02:05 AM
Davidtcf
post Feb 14 2022, 12:25 PM

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Yea true also if focus too much on US treasuries alone. Will have more risk if something bad happens to US debt (such as a default).

Will buy some AGGG. At least will get dividend semi annually even if ETF price goes down.
Davidtcf
post Feb 14 2022, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 14 2022, 02:10 PM)
Just curious, why AGGG instead of something like VAGU which is accumulating?
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I notice bond ETF prices could end up having negative growth (even when they drop it's a small % usually). So rather have some dividend in my broker account when its price drop.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 14 2022, 10:31 PM
Davidtcf
post Feb 14 2022, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 14 2022, 04:36 PM)
Same at as we’ll as with you never liked bonds and I rather buy commodities stapled ETF or REITs instead of bonds as timing is important because it is difficult to get out bonds without incurring any minor losses  doh.gif
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Staples ETFs and REITs right now many in the red also. We just need to hodl through this tough time.. things will get better later. Treat it as a discount to get the stocks or ETFs that you like.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 14 2022, 07:57 PM
Davidtcf
post Feb 14 2022, 10:29 PM

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this Reddit thread has given me an inspiration on how to utilize bonds:
https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/co...y_bonds_at_all/

QUOTE
If you rebalance periodically, it allows you to take advantage of the markets ups and downs.

Let's say you have a portfolio that 80% stocks and 20% bonds.

The market takes a big down turn, stock values plummet. Your portfolio has now shifted to 50% stocks and 50% bonds because your stock shares lost so much value.

So it is time to rebalance. You sell off some of your bonds which gives you the money to buy stocks while they are cheap, bringing you back to 80%/20%.

Then the market takes a huge upswing. Stock values skyrocket. Your portfolio is now at 90%/10%. It is time to rebalance again. You sell off some stocks to buy bonds bringing you back to 80%/20%.

This is how you buy low and sell high.

When stocks are low and cheap, you have the money available to buy up more, when their value is high and possibly peaking, you can take some of those profits and move them to a more secure position.


QUOTE
The idea is you don't try to time the market.

You pick a time once or twice a year to rebalance and stick to those regardless of what you think the market is about to do.

You might not get the full advantage of a multiyear bull market, but you get the benefit of taking big advantage of the downswings.

I think someone much smarter than me would need to crunch the historical numbers and see which way works out better and how often.



QUOTE
You also don't have to actually sell stock positions to buy the bonds during bull runs (and miss the rest of the run with that chunk), you can just weight contributions more towards bonds to stay in balance.

It's effectively the same, I think, but psychologically appeals to never having to sell.


This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 14 2022, 10:34 PM
Davidtcf
post Feb 15 2022, 08:49 AM

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QUOTE(blackchides @ Feb 15 2022, 12:59 AM)
Yeah this is a good portfolio management technique, except I hold 20% in cash instead (MMF, housing loan accounts, SSPN, etc), rather than buy bond funds. I just feel like there are enough instruments that provide more steady, less-volatile, risk-free returns than buying bonds.

Happy to hear a different perspective on this of course.
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just found out Malaysia's own popular MMF (money market fund) is Versa.. interest payment being bi-weekly and able to withdraw next day (if submit before 2.30pm business day) is great! It is also SC approved launched just last year in Malaysia.
downside is they invest using MYR it seems.

Stashaway simple would be using USD. However withdrawal part then really slow usually 3 days at least. sweat.gif And interest payment only done once a month. Both Versa and Stashaway Simple has a projected return of 2.4% per annum.



Just tested Versa with some small funds. Interface really clean. Find some referral code via google so that will get RM10 on first 100.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 15 2022, 09:09 AM
Davidtcf
post Feb 15 2022, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Feb 15 2022, 09:06 AM)
Buying during pandemic? That shouldn't be too bad. (Why did u sell btw?)

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Likely he sold it coz he already made from the REITs from prev growth.

So right now use the money from the sale to buy more good stocks or ETF. They are on a discount now. Since these has a higher chance to grow and shoot to the moon once this downturn is over.

Once Fed stop increasing interest rates, that’s when you’ll see market return to normal. Maybe not as good as 2 years ago but definitely some growth that time.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 15 2022, 09:51 AM
Davidtcf
post Feb 15 2022, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 15 2022, 01:25 PM)
You brought up a good point here. SA Simple / Versa or other MMF locally, their returns are kinda on par with international bond markets, right? I'm pulling this out of my ass probably, but last I checked US long-term treasury yield was 1.9x or 2.x%? If they're on par then perhaps Versa would work well
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yea bond ETFs dividends are around 1-2%.
there's a chance to grow the investment, though really small even after many years.
also a risk to lose some % of original capital if it goes down.
Plus side is the ETFs we buy are in USD.. so can hedge against MYR if somehow our Ringgit drops in value further.

If invest in Stashaway Simple or Versa, plus side is there's no such risk of losing capital.
Downside of Versa is it is denominated in MYR
SS in MYR also, but downside is 3-5days to withdraw. doh.gif

In the end really depends on one's preference. smile.gif

For now with so many stocks and ETFs on discount.. I rather put money in those first. biggrin.gif
Once they start going up a lot then it is time we start putting more money in these bonds / MMF.

If older 60 yrs old + then good to focus more on FD, MMF, Bonds etc (at least 60% or so of portfolio) since we can't take as much risk to see market drop 30% or more in a month. REITs, good dividend stocks will then be the focus.. those defensive type stocks or ETFs (for remaining 40%). For older people keep add more FD, MMF, Bonds etc according to age.

If sick about to die then just sell everything and put in bank, ready the will to distribute to kids/charity etc. Can't bring money to grave. laugh.gif
(Just a suggestion I'm no financial expert here.)

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 16 2022, 08:39 AM
Davidtcf
post Feb 16 2022, 06:41 AM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 16 2022, 05:04 AM)
If you checks properly SS is in RM buying Amincome MMF  doh.gif
Yea i checked again and it mentioned denomination is in MYR. Might as well choose Versa.

Let's see the new one by Kenanga is better or not.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 16 2022, 06:41 AM
Davidtcf
post Feb 16 2022, 08:54 AM

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QUOTE(chiacp @ Feb 16 2022, 07:42 AM)
Hw about total wealth distribution between overseas and local funds? What's ur take on that?
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I'd prefer overseas.. my portfolio has SG and US stocks / Irish Domiciled ETFs denominated in USD (such as VUAA/CSPX, VWRA, etc).
SG focusing on good REITs.
Looking at bonds ETFs also in the future (USD denominated Irish domiciled such as AGGG/AGGU)
Our MYR keep going down so better to put in USD or SGD. (just my preference, I don't know the future if somehow MYR become stronger one day)

Bursa can have some also la, for me only Maybank stock and a few REITs just to earn high interest and ease of withdrawal.
Then local MMF fund (stashway simple, versa etc) in MYR denomination.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 16 2022, 08:57 AM
Davidtcf
post Mar 28 2022, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(naranjero @ Mar 28 2022, 03:49 PM)
thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif Thanks, going to have a look in the KDI save.

I share similar view that REIT correlates just too much to the stock market, not worthy to be considered as different asset - a small amount in capital weighted index fund already done a good diversification.

Well said. Index investing are actually picking up the free breadcrumbs - almost like parasite - reaping small return without paying any effort to set the market price right.
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myself I will put some money into good stocks too. Good stocks has higher growth/returns than ETFs.

But mainly still focus ETFs such as VWRA, CSPX/VUAA to minimize my risk and ensure steady growth.

Also as I'm heading to late 30s now will put more money into lower risk income and inflation hedge investments such as bonds, reits, FD, etc. Some say ratio would be your age = low risk investment or -10 for low risk.
Davidtcf
post Mar 31 2022, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(blackchides @ Mar 29 2022, 02:59 AM)
Why so much allocation to ex-US by the way? I know the usual answer is diversification but reading some of the Boglehead forums out there, there's a school of thought for 100% US allocation as companies in those baskets would have global exposure anyway. And also US index has been outperforming international for the last 10-15 years, I believe.

My index portion of my portfolio right now is 100% VTI.  My only non-US exposure is through Stashaway ETFs.
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coz US so far performing well. It's your money so up to you. If don't believe in US then choose VWRA for all world ETF.

Fund manager will help you rebalance and more options for them if VWRA.

If we got crystal ball can see future, then we can safely choose what to invest in.. in reality we don't have that power. So all of us taking some risks here and there too when it involves the stock market. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Mar 31 2022, 10:41 AM
Davidtcf
post Apr 1 2022, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Apr 1 2022, 06:43 PM)
Well, I am leaning towards VUAA as lower priced which I am able to buy more shares. Since all things considered constant. Seems like the logical thing to do. However it seems like I am missing something. 👀
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VUAA is for poorer ppl like me to buy.. since cost wise cheaper. CSPX cost of entry is high.. if got some spare change after converting also hard to buy.

VUAA one day will catch up to CSPX liquidity trust me. Vanguard is more popular than iShares.

The difference now is liquidity.. which CSPX is more liquid since longer time in market. If you don’t sell often don’t have to worry. As for buy wise don’t rush when buying.. set at reasonable price and willing to wait. If see current price too high (high spike) then wait a few more hours come back.. likely it will drop down to cheaper price for VUAA.

If true boglehead don’t wanna time then set it to market price and just get in. TradingView is a good free tool to see current market price for ETF or stock.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Apr 1 2022, 08:09 PM
Davidtcf
post Apr 1 2022, 08:26 PM

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QUOTE(Icehart @ Apr 1 2022, 07:34 PM)
Why not crypto staking? Higher % and can be accessed within 15 minutes.
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Crypto is the most volatile asset, even more so than Forex.

Also staking has chance of the underlying fund doing a rugpull, disappear, get hacked etc and your cryptos lost with it since they are the custodian.

I bought crypto end of last year at their all time high. Lost 50% of value and have not recovered since then (after China ban). Any big news like China’s ban will trigger another sell off.. most ppl can’t take such losses in such a short time. Also crypto trading is 24/7. Even weekends can’t rip esp if own a lot of them.

Most ppl say don’t own more than 10% crypto of your entire portfolio.. I can see why.

In 50 years crypto might be very valuable.. or just fail and most cryptos disappear. Nobody knows since they are pure speculative. So would also suggest if wanna buy also go for famous ones like BTC, ETH good enough. At least they have higher value. Going for less known ones is high risk.. you’ll need to monitor them often.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Apr 1 2022, 08:29 PM
Davidtcf
post Apr 1 2022, 08:46 PM

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QUOTE(Icehart @ Apr 1 2022, 08:34 PM)
Crypto is volatile if you choose to stake non stables/blue chips.
If you choose stablecoins then you are literally pegging your asset/investment value to US dollars, and since we are on this topic, your investment is in USD anyway.  smile.gif
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I would not convert all my crypto to Stablecoins. Never know when the next spike would have increasing BTC value by double? Hence I’d want to be ready for that.

Right now I converted my ETH and LTC to BTC and store them at Nexo. Then lock in one month each time earning in Nexo. After one mth convert just enough Nexo to BTC to still keep that platinum membership for higher interest.
That is my plan on keeping BTC now. Till I manage to recover or profit from my previous investment.

For new ppl buying into staking. If they don’t mind the high risk then go ahead. Many other articles warning ppl about dangers of staking.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Apr 1 2022, 08:47 PM

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