Ya lo...

Back to TG.....

There's basically nothing 'new' and this I have to say is all due to our lack of quality in the scientists. It's overdone. Giving new TP based on profit revision every couple of weeks early on will have its consequences, in which they set the bar way too high that whatever profit the glove makers will not make/cause any new surprises.. what's the latest profit estimate? It was 800m early on and they just went up and up... now 1.1 billion for q4? I lost count already

It's so high that it's not gonna seduce ppl like me unless it's 20% above their estimates... err... which is gonna reach 2 billion at the rate the estimates keep revising.

Yup... so for me... unless the numbers come in really big and force these already over optimistic scientist to drop their glasses.. TG next QR will be a non price boosting factor.... which is utterly stupid if TG reports a billion in profit for the quarter and these jokers say oh, no big deal, we were expecting much more...

and if the profits don't dazzle how these jokers gonna create higher earnings numbers?

.... and as it is... the 2022 numbers are not even indicating booming numbers....

just some few sen for you to ponder.. M

Ya lo...

Back to TG.....

There's basically nothing 'new' and this I have to say is all due to our lack of quality in the scientists. It's overdone. Giving new TP based on profit revision every couple of weeks early on will have its consequences, in which they set the bar way too high that whatever profit the glove makers will not make/cause any new surprises.. what's the latest profit estimate? It was 800m early on and they just went up and up... now 1.1 billion for q4? I lost count already

It's so high that it's not gonna seduce ppl like me unless it's 20% above their estimates... err... which is gonna reach 2 billion at the rate the estimates keep revising.

Yup... so for me... unless the numbers come in really big and force these already over optimistic scientist to drop their glasses.. TG next QR will be a non price boosting factor.... which is utterly stupid if TG reports a billion in profit for the quarter and these jokers say oh, no big deal, we were expecting much more...

and if the profits don't dazzle how these jokers gonna create higher earnings numbers?

.... and as it is... the 2022 numbers are not even indicating booming numbers....

just some few sen for you to ponder.. M

It’s all about the sentiment now. Ppl don’t really look into the details in such a bull run. Still plenty of newcomers will pick up the expensive stocks. No idea when the musical chair will stop.

then u probably will truly dislike KOSSAN!

kossan, QR due mon or tue, i think.

last 3 qtrs PATAMI - 64.8, 61, 49.2 mil.

kenanga gave it TP 17.1... expecting this qtr PATAMI between RM96m and RM116m.
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/56106.jsp

this is a bit worrisome:
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 935,620 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 353,200 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 261,800 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 228,800 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 335,000 shares on 17-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 639,900 shares on 14-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 346,100 shares on 14-Aug-2020.
21-Aug-2020 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 1,500,000 shares on 14-Aug-2020.

kossan currently rm16.40.

It’s all about the sentiment now. Ppl don’t really look into the details in such a bull run. Still plenty of newcomers will pick up the expensive stocks. No idea when the musical chair will stop.

YES... that is so true... sentiments is important.

However, take a step back... dont we need to ask what's causing the bullish sentiments?

Isn't the fact that glove makers are making obscene amount of money?

And with it... comes the higher and higher target prices set by these scientists?

So for TG... for the stock to push say 35 or 40 levels.. wouldn't it require a brand new catalyst to give the stock the oomph?

For me... it's simple. A big, big number is required from TG.

This is what will create an insane bullish market sentiment and push it to beyond 50 bucks... yup, show me 2 billion profit for Q4.

Someone already did a comparison between Maybank and Topglove profit for them or with other KLSE top 30. But a growth story is a growth story.

The only problem with glove profit story is the profit growth is not sustainable. The profit growth oomps will fizzle overtime instead of increase over time. Oh well better don't argue with the general market. Win also i get nothing out of it 

Are you kidding me? That's a terrible way to compare. Must be desperately trying to promote Maybank.

Clearly most knows that such profit growth is unstainble. Even in the reports.. the 2022 numbers are missing the growth.

But yeah in a bullish market its hard to talk sense with the punters... stocks like Karek, Notion, LKL, Nice...and many more.

The question then is what profit level is sustainable?

Very simply, if that touted 1.4bil for current qtr is sustainable, 1 year is 5.6bil... for 2.7bil shares.

About rm2 per share... pe of 30 already give a share price of rm 60.

Nobody is so silly to believe that will last.

When stabilized, how about half it... say 700mil per qtr... 2.8b pa.... or about rm1 eps, rm30 for pe30?

That wud be more reasonable... and if 50% to be paid as dividend, 50sen per share p.a.... i can live with that.
But of course, there is a doomsday scenario where a perfect vaccine arrives tmr, nobody need glove or mask or ppe anymore.

And everyone lives happily ever after!

Ahhh... I was lucky enough to be given some of the notes when our tech rally of MPI and Unisem. That was 2000. Not sure where I put it but to think of it.. it's pretty the same as TG and SM. MPI went up to 60s if iam not mistaken. The balance sheet was far superior too. Clean no debts. But when it collapsed back to 10 plus, the stock pe wasn't high. What was circled for me, was PE cannot be trusted. Lol. No joke. Anyway, the notes told me earnings growth or decline is more decisive. In MPI, when the earnings declined, the stock just got whacked until mummy also cannot recognise. Plus the global crash in tech at that time did not help.

Anyway, back to gloves. Declining earnings is something to dread about. Yes, if in the future, if earnings fall back to just 700m per quarter, I feel the first reaction is declining earnings, which means the stock will face correction pressure.

 

Those char koay teow fryer never inform public what they did to a stock once the growth story end and they cannot push it further anymore.

Later you angry again, but i must mentioned uncle Koon as he is one of those chef. Perfectly good company let him ruin due to over fried.

This Pharma is going to trap a lot of retailers in it, from what i interpret from the chart lah

Correct or not Boon3

This Pharma is going to trap a lot of retailers in it, from what i interpret from the chart lah

Correct or not Boon3

refer post #2250

whenever you have the time ....

Possible Top Top for TG forming .......

yep, all glove counters prices may be capped now becos:

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...-glove-industry
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/08/619...ngerang-complex

Ahh....

kinda explain the declining volume (waning interest) seen lately on TG....

every tom dick and harry wants to join the bandwagon ......


I guess over capacity will now be this industry biggest concern in the future....

Newcomers venture in Glove business (same situation seen in the past pandemic but not able to survive when demand normalize)
250 gloves manufacturers 30 years ago, and 40 players left now.