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 FundSuperMart v18 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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T231H
post Mar 18 2017, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 18 2017, 09:54 AM)
You can backtest rebalancing vs. no rebalancing in the simulator.. for my port it wasn't worth the extra effort smile.gif
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for some, maybe due to the portfolio's asset classes composition, % of allocation, range of coverage it may not helps much....
rclxms.gif so you can be right when you said...."for my port it wasn't worth the extra effort".

but for this old article.....it does....

Rebalancing Works For Your Portfolio
June 7, 2007
Investors hear it often enough that it is important to rebalance one's investment portfolio, but just how effective is rebalancing? Our General Manager delves deeper to find out.
Author : Wong Sui Jau

https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/resea...?articleNo=2215

http://www.fundsupermart.com.hk/hk/main/re...6-4863?lang=en#

but just don't do it too frequently....
You might have heard this one before: frequent rebalancing to simultaneously lock in profits and dollar cost average into lower priced assets will provide better returns. We examined the myth and here’s what we found.....
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/artic...Mythbusting.pdf

This post has been edited by T231H: Mar 18 2017, 10:10 AM
puchongite
post Mar 18 2017, 10:16 AM

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It is time to invest in Malaysia ?

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...st-in-malaysia/

Ramjade
post Mar 18 2017, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Mar 18 2017, 10:16 AM)
I think is a little late for it as best time was when Malaysia was beaten down badly at the end of last year.
puchongite
post Mar 18 2017, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 18 2017, 10:21 AM)
I think is a little late for it as best time was when Malaysia was beaten down badly at the end of last year.
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So in your opinion what is the best place to park the money now ?

Bond fund ? That's what I gathered from your posts .....

This post has been edited by puchongite: Mar 18 2017, 10:24 AM
T231H
post Mar 18 2017, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Mar 18 2017, 10:16 AM)
thumbup.gif thought provoking article...

this would definitely spooked those that has opposite views and has drastically reduced or eliminated their exposures in Malaysia for the past few months....

well, I would just continue with my planned allocation, sit tight and wait to see if this article is correct.
will see in 6 mths... innocent.gif
Ramjade
post Mar 18 2017, 10:25 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Mar 18 2017, 10:24 AM)
So in your opinion what is the best place to park the money now ?

Bond fund ? That's what I gathered .....
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If you read the Stock exchange thread, it seems the the upwards trend is unnatural.
T231H
post Mar 18 2017, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 18 2017, 10:21 AM)
I think is a little late for it as best time was when Malaysia was beaten down badly at the end of last year.
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hmm.gif maybe that is why many "experts" used to say....have a diversified portfolio....allocate some to it even it is bad now...for no one knows when it would strike back....

ex...Brasil was for the last few years...."Bad'.....
then
Brazil Seized The Throne In 2016
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...razil!-8117

T231H
post Mar 18 2017, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 18 2017, 10:25 AM)
If you read the Stock exchange thread, it seems the the upwards trend is unnatural.
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hmm.gif me too think it is unnatural...too high a level of rise in too short time...but this scenario is almost through out Asia Pac regions.....
just look at how some of UTs performance for the past 3 months......just loved it on those that I had and hated it for those that I did not.
puchongite
post Mar 18 2017, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(T231H @ Mar 18 2017, 10:25 AM)
thumbup.gif thought provoking article...

this would definitely spooked those that has opposite views and has drastically reduced or eliminated their exposures in Malaysia for the past few months....

well, I would just continue with my planned allocation, sit tight and wait to see if this article is correct.
will see in 6 mths... innocent.gif
*
Can consider an alternative strategy of keeping say 80% fairly static emotionless allocation but 20% of "go-with-the-flow" ? devil.gif
wongmunkeong
post Mar 18 2017, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 18 2017, 10:21 AM)
I think is a little late for it as best time was when Malaysia was beaten down badly at the end of last year.
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yup, already made or up 5%+/- to 8%+/-
same deal with "oh lord, the sky's falling for Asian markets"

still the same folks chasing higher highs VS same folks buying lows & sitting on hands
different strokes = is good, is good - else too competitive laugh.gif

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Mar 18 2017, 10:55 AM
T231H
post Mar 18 2017, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Mar 18 2017, 10:49 AM)
Can consider an alternative strategy of keeping say 80% fairly static emotionless allocation but 20% of "go-with-the-flow" ?  devil.gif
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then at the end of the year, when compared to others's YTD ROI...... ranting.gif should have "gambled" more the last 12 months..... devil.gif
Nemozai
post Mar 18 2017, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(T231H @ Mar 18 2017, 10:07 AM)
for some, maybe due to the portfolio's asset classes composition, % of allocation, range of coverage it may not helps much....
rclxms.gif so you can be right when you said...."for my port it wasn't worth the extra effort".

but for this old article.....it does....

Rebalancing Works For Your Portfolio
June 7, 2007
Investors hear it often enough that it is important to rebalance one's investment portfolio, but just how effective is rebalancing? Our General Manager delves deeper to find out.
Author : Wong Sui Jau

https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/resea...?articleNo=2215

http://www.fundsupermart.com.hk/hk/main/re...6-4863?lang=en#

but just don't do it too frequently....
You might have heard this one before: frequent rebalancing to simultaneously lock in profits and dollar cost average into lower priced assets will provide better returns.  We examined the myth and  here’s what we found.....
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/artic...Mythbusting.pdf
*
The last link showed that conservative 20/80 yield much higher return than agressive 80/20. Why so? Any expert can give opinion? blink.gif

This post has been edited by Nemozai: Mar 18 2017, 11:05 AM
xuzen
post Mar 18 2017, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(dasecret @ Mar 17 2017, 10:20 PM)
Nah... it's a once in a blue moon thing, that's why worth mentioning. This fund probably can lose 4 digit in a week as well... the big question is, shd I keep or shd I sell
Your maths is quite spot on for an IT guy who doesn't keep track of IRR. What I omitted here is, I had this fund for almost 4 years now, so a lot of it is accumulated profits
I wished... but no... it's a borderline 4 digit; which is worth a brag anyway
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T321H FSM Fund pick of the month = suxs! Algozen™ wub.gif wub.gif wub.gif pick of the season is still Ponzi 2.0 thumbsup.gif & Ponzi 1.0 thumbsup.gif for the Asia Pac ex Japan region.

QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 17 2017, 10:37 PM)
What are the chances for the fund to move to 21% vs 9%? I think chances for it to drop is higher than for it to hit 21% hmm.gif 
My thinking once it reached a certain target, withdraw all and put into the select bond fund. Then wait. Eg 15% returns. After all it's already 15% return in less than a year. Even if didn't pump back inside after one year, the return is already 15% pa. Still decent...
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Let's use India UTF for illustration. One year ROI is 33.83. Three years annualized is 24.5%, Std-Dev = 17.44%. At this moment, it is still behaving normally. However, if you use the regression to the mean argument, there is a high chance the fund wants to go back to its home ground of 24.5. That is why I have been skimming profit from it and not selling it terus-terus all of it. If the other way around, I would have add into it by DCA.

QUOTE(drew86 @ Mar 17 2017, 11:19 PM)
And what if u dont feel lucky enough to re-enter? Again it's a dilemma in UTF investment. There just isn't a clear cut "resistance" or "support" point to TP/SL at.

I'm as clueless as some people here are. On one hand I would like to just reap the profits in the long run regardless of the volatility. On the other, why let profits dwindle? No right or wrong.. I hope some veterans can shed some light.
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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 17 2017, 11:32 PM)
Xuzen uses allocation. If it exceed that certain value he transfer it out so that the allocation come back to what he want.

Eg. The fund is supposed to be 10% of his total portfolio, it increase to 20%, so he take 10% and divert it to another fund which is (-)
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Ramjade, yar! yar! Kasi lu satu like.... you have been paying attention. With asset allocation model, there is already an in-built buy and sell mechanism that is independent of emotion.

QUOTE(puchongite @ Mar 18 2017, 10:16 AM)
Algozen™ sezs NO!

Xuzen
T231H
post Mar 18 2017, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Nemozai @ Mar 18 2017, 11:05 AM)
The last link showed that conservative 20/80 yield much higher return than agressive 80/20. Why so? Any expert can give opinion?  blink.gif
*
maybe
1) sedikit, sedikit lama lam jadi BUKIT.
2) when is the starts and end points of the volatility cycle that you measure......the cycle high and low points makes alots of different
wayne84
post Mar 18 2017, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Mar 18 2017, 10:21 AM)
I think is a little late for it as best time was when Malaysia was beaten down badly at the end of last year.
*
alot of expert claiming they will be a pull back nx week after recent bull run, jus wait for the pull back to its resistant or support level then buy in, u hav more potential to gain higher yeild. go in timing is important
puchongite
post Mar 18 2017, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(wayne84 @ Mar 18 2017, 12:28 PM)
alot of expert claiming they will be a pull back nx week after recent bull run, jus wait for the pull back to its resistant or support level then buy in, u hav more potential to gain higher yeild. go in timing is important
*
References ?
Kaka23
post Mar 18 2017, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 18 2017, 09:52 AM)
How many years?
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some 3-4, some 4-5....

wodenus
post Mar 18 2017, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(wayne84 @ Mar 18 2017, 12:28 PM)
alot of expert claiming they will be a pull back nx week after recent bull run, jus wait for the pull back to its resistant or support level then buy in, u hav more potential to gain higher yeild. go in timing is important
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Actually it's not, it just makes you feel better about it. In most cases, time in the market is more important than timing the market.

This post has been edited by wodenus: Mar 18 2017, 05:59 PM
wongmunkeong
post Mar 18 2017, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(wayne84 @ Mar 18 2017, 12:28 PM)
alot of expert claiming they will be a pull back nx week after recent bull run, jus wait for the pull back to its resistant or support level then buy in, u hav more potential to gain higher yeild. go in timing is important
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er.. bro.. if one is timing things instead of value cost averaging or DCA-ing, shouldn't one be trading stocks, options, forex, etc instead? wrong vehicle aint it?

Yaya. i do timing + probabilities but NOT for mutual funds.. which gawd knows hold what stocks (specifically - no, reports dont count as that's like gawd knows how many moons/weeks ago. Also totally not worth the cost & time Vs returns.

Or U really prefer to trade /switch/twitch mutual funds like made hoping to make 2 correct guesses (in then out, or out then in)?

oh well, no absolute right/wrong - IMHO, just.. time, effort & cost could be better used for other vehicles if timing. notworthy.gif
wayne84
post Mar 18 2017, 09:04 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Mar 18 2017, 08:36 PM)
er.. bro.. if one is timing things instead of value cost averaging or DCA-ing, shouldn't one be trading stocks, options, forex, etc instead? wrong vehicle aint it?

Yaya. i do timing + probabilities but NOT for mutual funds.. which gawd knows hold what stocks (specifically - no, reports dont count as that's like gawd knows how many moons/weeks ago. Also totally not worth the cost & time Vs returns.

Or U really prefer to trade /switch/twitch mutual funds like made hoping to make 2 correct guesses (in then out, or out then in)?

oh well, no absolute right/wrong - IMHO, just.. time, effort & cost could be better used for other vehicles if timing.  notworthy.gif
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erm, i do DCA as well monthly 2k into fsm, but i will separate it into 1k each time, buy when only asia/ msia market or the market where my fund is touching drop.. if the whole month no drop or promo, then normally last few day i will all in. no right or wrong, but i hope i can have slightly better return in long run.

This post has been edited by wayne84: Mar 18 2017, 09:06 PM

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