What on earth are you talking about.... Are you just regurgitating what you have read on Bloomberg? Or are you a local in Mainland China? You still did not answer my question. If China is SOOOO worried about the trade, IF one day US decides to impose on ALL their items, at what percentage point it would hit China's GDP? When you find out the answer maybe you will know you are just as hypnotised as the media and reading all the headline news only.

Capital control? Did you also know that President Xi is slowly deregulating and opening up? Aiya nevermind stick to your Bloomberg. We shall see

I for one am extremely bullish on China in the medium to long term, hence holding 60% in Asia Pacific and Greater China combined. But everyone's different. So no worries

Some graph show recovery phase up to 20 months T.T

my provision port also 45% on Asia Pac and GC hehe.

then it shows historically, keep on investing, no matter what the economic situations are?

I thought you had gotten out of GC fund and went into ASN/FI
left only 20% of your investment port in Asia Pac?

Dividend investor = stocks. Not UT. You and I should know dividend in UT not important.

I give you an example with UT. Maybe can understand better.
In UT you want the price to goes up. But if it went up because there's plenty of FOMO, you don't buy.
Why? When price drops you need the same amount just to break even. A 10% drop means the fund needs to perform 10% just to break even. Now how easy is it to break even? In bull market is easy. In a bear market good luck. Now we don't want to just break even right? You don't want to wait so long just to break even right?

What are the odds of it dropping if the price is already expensive? High right? Yes high can go higher. But how high can high go? What are the odds of you needing to wait longer just to see some gains? If you want to wait longer time for it to break even and made gain then buy. Clearly the odds are not in your favour. Maybe slightly in this case (high can go higher)

Now instead of chasing, you decide to wait. Price drop. What are the chances price can go up if is already cheap? Yes low can go lower. But right now when things drop, chances of it going up is higher vs dropping (especially if it's cheap, if it drop but still expensive, then yes low can go lower).

I don't know how to explain it in words. When market is expensive, you only have small odds of making money. When market is cheap, odds are stack hugely in your favour.

So in the case eof UT
One is assumed guaranteed 6%p.a in ASNB.
Now if invest in UT, at expensive point, market drop by 10% the fund needs to wait ~2 years just to outperform ASNB.
Now if you invest in the 2nd year (when is cheaper) what are your odds to outperform ASNB? Higher right when compare if you buy in the first year?

Last I check mainland Chinese/Chinese companies cant buy overseas property anymore. Can only send limited amount of cash overseas/year. Cc have limits on international spending. Something USD 50k if I am not wrong.

Again why do you think they are trying to revamp their economy and speed up consumption? They want to be less dependent on trades. They need to increase the amount of consumption by x% to off set the effects of US trade war by x%.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 12:13 PM

yeah this is FSM thread, so we're all discussing about unit trust.

I think uncle waiting when they will offer for free.

well that is in theory....now how do you know at that point of buy....that the price is high?
will it be based on higher than your previous purchased price is high?

why not just stick to your frequently preached "no brainer" approach of having a risk free 6% for in UT you can never sur know you will get any returns at all.?

Based on previous chart and based on market sentiments. You see market rebounded so fast, so yeah we are still in a bull market.

Again like I said if the odds are in your favour of outperforming ASNB FP funds, take it. If not, don't.

So far for me my S-reits have all outperform ASNB FP beautifully with capital gains of 20% even in this market condition. Am I selling? No. Why? When I sell, dividend stops. God knows how long I need to wait for the market to offer me the same price again.

Will I accumulate more if it drop to my entry price or below it?
Yes I will.

Some goes for my other dividend stocks.

Am I confident to outperform ASNB returns currently?
No. The odds are not really in my favour now. Hence I am waiting. Market is expensive and bull market is intact.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 12:30 PM

based on the chart?
based on how long the data?...
is the point of reference for rebound starts at the lowest?
is the point to start calculating the bull runs start from that lowest point?
if yes, then for how long does it takes considered a bull run?
how much rises from that lowest point in % and at what durations can it be considered as a bull run?
how does one know if it is not a trap or if that bull run is a mini one or a full all out crazy bull?

how to prevent from seeing a bull run before the prices are not high enough to be considered not buying when the prices are high?
you preached before...why buy when the prices are high?

how can one be sure the odds is in one favour of outperforming ASNB FP? .....
buying something at low, (cheap now) may lead to it going cheaper again or remaining low for a long time too.....
the only what to know is by looking back in history some time later.

This post has been edited by MUM: Oct 19 2018, 12:48 PM

provision port ma. I now hand picked it and built it so I can migrate from FI to EQ when the time come without wasting my time on think which fund to go. I believe gfc is just around the corner. seeing how the fund does in this turbulence time is good.

in my holding now don't have any Asia Pacific and GC.

only FI and 10%. in ta tech.

some leftover amount in India

that's it.

This post has been edited by [Ancient]-XinG-: Oct 19 2018, 12:49 PM

Ramjade you are a different breed la.
You do provide entertainment.
Not only in investing but also lifestyle. So having a partner won't make economic sense for you right? How to survive within 1k if got partner? Make her eat Maggi everyday?
Save save save for tomorrow but what if when you 40 your kuku can't stand? What if you sick and unhealthy? Can't even enjoy your passive income that you spent last 2 decades saving and sacrificing? Don't throw your youth away.

This post has been edited by ssajnani: Oct 19 2018, 01:02 PM

do you mean sort of "gambling" port?

careful for possibility of out bursting of emotions that may requires medication --- bro

yes, I think China/Hk and Asia Pac is the going to place...but I am more in favour of China/HK if I can see they tighten the RMB

This post has been edited by MUM: Oct 19 2018, 12:53 PM

as far as we know for now, he is single and happy remaining that way. he once opinionated that it is a liability to have one.

Hahaha agree

wow.. kopitiam thread ka?
i thought i clicked on the wrong link.. devolved?

my bad.. just thinking logical investing thread or kopitiam thread <back into the shadows>

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Oct 19 2018, 12:58 PM

yea just like he has his ways of investing, he's happy with his life. somewhere out there, is a female version of him as well. so, good luck in ur undertakings.

more for thought clarification and for some colors other than RED from both the indexes and compiled ROI data

For this short term, use the price prior to trump election. Anything after trump is considered expensive and irrational. Anyhirng change after trump? I don't think so.
For longer can look at brexit, greece issue.
Look at deepest bottom. That's your support level. Anything near that level can consider mega discount.
Super long term. Look at 2008. A repeat a 2008 will appear again. The question is when. You can't predict but you can be prepared for it.
Bullrun can be seen when markets is irrational drastic increase in price eventhough fundamentally nothing much changes.
I don't need to see how long bull run. all I need to know for myself market is still not cheap enough for me to risk my money in UT.
Yes I believed in the 10 years cycle. If we are lucky, maybe can stretch to 15 years but Bullrun is ending.
That you have to depend on yourself. If you feel the market is expensive and want to chase because of FOMO, then give chase. I wouldn't give chase.

What are the odds of losing money in an expensive market vs cheap market? The odds are higher to lose money in an expensive market. The global economy depends on US no matter what people want to think. Us market aren't cheap now. Who cares about Malaysia, Hong Kong or India market. When US down, the world follows US.

Again it comes down to market is expensive or cheap. In a cheap market chances to outperform ASNB is huge. In an expensive market, good luck man.

Of course when it comes to stocks, different question. Different stocks have different levels of cheapness. Different people different. Right now, I can give chase to S-reits but I won't as it's totally not worth my effort. The yield I am getting by buying now is totally not worth my money.

The way I see it is end of the day, unit trust still a basket of stock and can't run away from that fact. My thesis still hold true as proven recently.

Not sure if you are trying to make fun of me.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Oct 19 2018, 01:03 PM