Aug 27 2018, 12:59 PM
QUOTE(xuzen @ Aug 27 2018, 12:24 PM)
There are about 250 UTFs in the FSM universe. My first step is to select the top ten most desirable UTFs and this is based on what I read and understand from various media sources including reports from the various Fund Houses. This is the part which is subjective and is solely based on my biased opinion and personal gut feel. This part takes a certain je ne sais quoi.
Out of these ten short-listed candidate I will throw them into Algozen™ ver four and let her do the computation. Then I will use her to churn out various scenario & outcome. This is the analytical part. Pure computational work. Too tedious for human to do it, only a computer can do it.
Then of the many outcomes that are churned out, I will select the outcome that in my opinion, which I am most comfortable with. Again, this is based on personal experience. So, if let say I choose outcome A, and suddenly the world changes with some new info that will move the market wildly, I will already have in my library outcome B, C, D... so forth and I can quickly change my port accordingly. That is why I rarely lose money. Lackluster ROI yes, lose money no, except in this 2018... in the 12 preceding month of tracking, my port made 5 months of lost and that is a record for my port. Prior to 2018, I rarely lose money. But prior to this, we do not have a mad Trump to disturb the market. But nonetheless, the port as a whole made money 12 mths preceding.
China centric and emerging market is very reactive to what Trump say. It is too volatile and hence I discard it for the time being until Trump gets booted out or the market decide to ignore Trump tantrum.
Surprisingly ES Eq Income is very uncorrelated to the other UTF in my port and hence that is why it is there.
On Reits, it is something I have to be more concern with, thank you friend Yklooi for highlighting it.
Thanks Xuzen for laying out your methodology and also caveats in your approach.Out of these ten short-listed candidate I will throw them into Algozen™ ver four and let her do the computation. Then I will use her to churn out various scenario & outcome. This is the analytical part. Pure computational work. Too tedious for human to do it, only a computer can do it.
Then of the many outcomes that are churned out, I will select the outcome that in my opinion, which I am most comfortable with. Again, this is based on personal experience. So, if let say I choose outcome A, and suddenly the world changes with some new info that will move the market wildly, I will already have in my library outcome B, C, D... so forth and I can quickly change my port accordingly. That is why I rarely lose money. Lackluster ROI yes, lose money no, except in this 2018... in the 12 preceding month of tracking, my port made 5 months of lost and that is a record for my port. Prior to 2018, I rarely lose money. But prior to this, we do not have a mad Trump to disturb the market. But nonetheless, the port as a whole made money 12 mths preceding.
China centric and emerging market is very reactive to what Trump say. It is too volatile and hence I discard it for the time being until Trump gets booted out or the market decide to ignore Trump tantrum.
Surprisingly ES Eq Income is very uncorrelated to the other UTF in my port and hence that is why it is there.
On Reits, it is something I have to be more concern with, thank you friend Yklooi for highlighting it.
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when things go bad.
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..i am thinking to go into bonds, but currently lack of capital. i think i can wait till good times as u said and slowly add up bonds into my portfolio.
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