QUOTE(kimyee73 @ Oct 18 2016, 12:15 PM)
How much data is needed for meaningful calculation? 1 year is sufficient or need 3 years? Also using weekly or monthly performance? Right now I use 1 year monthly data. Thanks.
Story telling time.
At the end of 2014, I noticed that the one year historical Sharpe ratio of China specific fund namely Manulife China Equity was awesome. It looked so good! My darling Algozen was screaming into my ears:
MASUK! MASUK! Moh Man Tai! Sai Lang! Show Hand!Relying purely on numbers, and without wisdom, I was 80% China at that time. That was how good the China numbers were at that time.
Then mid 2015 China came tumbling down. It dropped 20% or so and since I was 80% China, 0.2 x 0.8 = 16% drop in my portfolio. Aduhai! Sakit hati-nya.
So, you see,
Kimyee, one year historical data can be quite daunting. I was like Officer Harry Callahan.... Do you feel lucky punk? Well do ya? It felt lucky for a while until mid 2015.
Now a days I use 3 years data. So far so good. Three years data provides a better margin of safety.
AIYH,
So you see, again if you are only book-smart and rely only on numbers or algorithm alone, it can bite you. You need a little bit of numbers plus some real life experience to be a successful investors. For those who are always scare to lose (kiasu), and never really participate and keep on asking and asking only and only rely on reading lots of book, you will never be able to learn it properly.
Xuzen
p/s If I were to show you my IRR, taken into account my misstep, it surely will not look good. Similarly with
Pink Spider, both of us have gone through some rough patches before as part of our leaning curve. In the end, we learned our lessons and came back stronger and became a more mature investor.
IRR is basically a number and is meaningless on its own without knowing its context. So showing IRR can be misleading.
BTW, if you ask me what is my IRR now, I will tell you straight off, I don't know because I erased it and start a new from there on. I do not want to dwell on my past painful memory. Lesson learned, moved on.
This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 18 2016, 02:39 PM