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 USD/MYR v4

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Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 09:42 AM

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The thing that is painful is,.......... sure, other currencies ALSO lost their value against the USD, that's fair,... 'not too bad', 'not as bad as 1998',.. BUT why must my RM also lose against the SGD and the AUD ??

Yes, sure, sure,... there are many economics reasons, etc, etc,... but for whatever reasons out there,.. I have lost my purchasing power there.

Vs the AUD : https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AUDM...AUDMYR=X;range=

Vs the SGD : https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SGDM...DMYR=X;range=1y

Okay-lar,.. maybe some will say,... why compare with stronger currencies ?

...... Then perhaps we should move our investments to countries with weaker currencies than the MYR during this event,... I don't think I'll do that.

I think I'll shift out my RM before the 'next event' hits the RM, which may create a 'lower par value' for the RM after that.
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 09:41 AM)
M not sure whether there is any window dressing activites on 30/12 to make the numbers look gud
Thus, u need to get redy MYR n shop around
*
Okay,... another opportunity there,.. thanks for the heads-up, bro,...
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 09:44 AM

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.. italian vote caused uncertainty, euro falls to 20 month low.
.. $ index spiked on the news, now 101.40.
.. most currencies fell against $.
.. RM holding at same old 4.45.

maybe still early, but my take is no change from last week.

new measures not showing any impact (yet); BNM probably still intervening to keep around 4.45.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2016, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 09:44 AM)
.. italian vote caused uncertainty, euro falls to 20 month low.
.. $ index spiked on the news, now 101.40.
.. most currencies fell against $.
.. RM holding at same old 4.45.

maybe still early, but my take is no change from last week.

new measures not showing any impact (yet); BNM probably still intervening to keep around 4.45.
*
I need to KIV my Long or Short position until d dusts clear
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2016, 10:23 AM

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Bau for MYR despite new BNM guidelines
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 10:29 AM

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QUOTE(xpmm @ Dec 5 2016, 10:12 AM)
myr already hit bottom, lagi pun bnm already peg usd at 4.45, so its not a good idea to convert now. unless convert to gbp at 5.60 now, i think gbp myr will hit 5.8 to 6.0
*
Yeah,... MYR is at a record low against all my targetted currencies now,.... should stop converting now,... UNLESS,.. we think the MYR will drop further, which means no faith in BNM's actions,...

Another way to think is : ..unless the MYR should drop further, and BNM is forced to put in MORE tight measures.

Edited by adding : Should have converted before the US presidential elections,... biggrin.gif , this is hindsight,...

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 5 2016, 10:31 AM
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 10:23 AM)
Bau for MYR despite new BNM guidelines
*
$ index continues to rise.

oil price softening on us rig count rise, opec incr production before cut.

italian and nz prime minsters resign.

trump tweets against china.

fed rate hike imminent on dec14.



all ingredients pointing to a stronger $.

still hoping $ will fall?! tongue.gif
bbgoat
post Dec 5 2016, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 09:41 AM)
M not sure whether there is any window dressing activites on 30/12 to make the numbers look gud
Thus, u need to get redy MYR n shop around
*
U not going to catch "anything" ? laugh.gif

Ya, always ready from now till early Jan to take some action, buy USD. biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 10:32 AM)
$ index continues to rise.

Comment : frightening,...

oil price softening on us rig count rise, opec incr production before cut.

Comment :  shocking.gif where did you see this news, bro,.. increasing production first before cut ? Then as good as no cut,..

italian and nz prime minsters resign.

trump tweets against china.

fed rate hike imminent on dec14.
all ingredients pointing to a stronger $.

still hoping $ will fall?! tongue.gif

Comment : Actually, we know that all factors point to the USD not falling, and even strengthening in the near to medium term. What I'm hoping for is the measures taken by BNM to be able to contain this rise of the USD against the MYR. The immediate question that pops into mind will then be how long will the 5 (is it 5 ?) tactics by BNM unveiled last Friday, Dec 2 be able to defend against the onslaught of the USD...
*

Comments above.
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2016, 11:59 AM

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CIMB Research sees new forex measures reducing ringgit speculation
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...it-speculation/

Reduce speculation doesn't mean MYR will strengthen
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2016, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 10:32 AM)
$ index continues to rise.

oil price softening on us rig count rise, opec incr production before cut.

italian and nz prime minsters resign.

trump tweets against china.

fed rate hike imminent on dec14.
all ingredients pointing to a stronger $.

still hoping $ will fall?! tongue.gif
*
Tat was the hope of our policy makers
Anyway, m keen to c whether they will roll out Plan B, C n so forth
nexona88
post Dec 5 2016, 12:26 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 10:32 AM)
$ index continues to rise.

oil price softening on us rig count rise, opec incr production before cut.

italian and nz prime minsters resign.

trump tweets against china.

fed rate hike imminent on dec14.
all ingredients pointing to a stronger $.

still hoping $ will fall?! tongue.gif
*
USD become stronger devil.gif
aspartame
post Dec 5 2016, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 11:59 AM)
CIMB Research sees new forex measures reducing ringgit speculation
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...it-speculation/

Reduce speculation doesn't mean MYR will strengthen
*
It is not in BNM interest for RM to strengthen. They are satisfied with a stable and undervalued RM at 4.45.

QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 12:00 PM)
Tat was the hope of our policy makers
Anyway, m keen to c whether they will roll out Plan B, C n so forth
*
As long as RM is stable, it is unlikely that BNM will introduce more measures. Their objective is achieved. They are not stupid to push RM upwards only for speculators to sell more RM to them at higher prices. At current prices, sellers of RM are selling at undervalued levels and I think the longer RM stays at this level, the more exhausted sellers of RM will be. After speculating interest die down, RM will then strengthen.

This post has been edited by aspartame: Dec 5 2016, 01:58 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 5 2016, 10:53 AM)
Comment : Actually, we know that all factors point to the USD not falling, and even strengthening in the near to medium term. What I'm hoping for is the measures taken by BNM to be able to contain this rise of the USD against the MYR. The immediate question that pops into mind will then be how long will the 5 (is it 5 ?) tactics by BNM unveiled last Friday, Dec 2 be able to defend against the onslaught of the USD...
*
hard to tell at this time...

can be continuous intervention, can be some effect from measures.

guess next fx reserves no. will tell something.

QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 11:59 AM)
CIMB Research sees new forex measures reducing ringgit speculation
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...it-speculation/
Reduce speculation doesn't mean MYR will strengthen
*
righto!

and it is always easy to pin "speculation" as the main culprit, politically correct.

really, does anyone have any data to show that?

or perhaps investors and biz people alike just have fear and lack of confidence?

or just wanna take their money and go somewhere to get better returns?

e.g. how is bursa doing when usa markets are hitting record highs almost everyday?
nexona88
post Dec 5 2016, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 5 2016, 01:57 PM)
It is not in BNM interest for RM to strengthen. They are satisfied with a stable and undervalued RM at 4.45.
As long as RM is stable, it is unlikely that BNM will introduce more measures. Their objective is achieved. They are not stupid to push RM upwards only for speculators to sell more RM to them at higher prices. At current prices, sellers of RM are selling at undervalued levels and I think the longer RM stays at this level, the more exhausted sellers of RM will be. After speculating interest die down, RM will then strengthen.
*
Well some will say 4.45 is good for export & tourism doh.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 5 2016, 02:11 PM)
Well some will say 4.45 is good for export & tourism doh.gif
*
good for perodua to raise price, goemn collect more gst?

QUOTE
Perodua: Price review if ringgit remains weak
Read More : http://www.nst.com.my/news/2016/12/194428/...it-remains-weak
nexona88
post Dec 5 2016, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 02:13 PM)
good for perodua to raise price, goemn collect more gst?
*
When perodua does that, others will follow too..
Consumers will the one would suffer by paying more mad.gif

Who says weak myr is good.. Needs to give one slap in the face.. Every thing is related yo..
cherroy
post Dec 5 2016, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 5 2016, 01:57 PM)
It is not in BNM interest for RM to strengthen. They are satisfied with a stable and undervalued RM at 4.45.
As long as RM is stable, it is unlikely that BNM will introduce more measures. Their objective is achieved. They are not stupid to push RM upwards only for speculators to sell more RM to them at higher prices. At current prices, sellers of RM are selling at undervalued levels and I think the longer RM stays at this level, the more exhausted sellers of RM will be. After speculating interest die down, RM will then strengthen.
*
Yup,
Remember there was a time, everyone is in the race for devalue their money to boost economy.

Current economy situation doesn't allow currency to strengthen too much, it hurts competitiveness, even for the like Japan, they also need weak Yen to boost their economy. When Yen appreciated too much, we can see many corporate top and bottom line are hurting as well.

It is about a stable currency level, not about push up or down the currency.
Either way of drastic movement has its consequences.





TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2016, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 5 2016, 10:47 AM)
U not going to catch "anything" ?  laugh.gif

Ya, always ready from now till early Jan to take some action, buy USD.  biggrin.gif
*
Dunno wat to catch coz still in dilemma sweat.gif
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(aspartame @ Dec 5 2016, 01:57 PM)
It is not in BNM interest for RM to strengthen. They are satisfied with a stable and undervalued RM at 4.45.
As long as RM is stable, it is unlikely that BNM will introduce more measures. Their objective is achieved. They are not stupid to push RM upwards only for speculators to sell more RM to them at higher prices. At current prices, sellers of RM are selling at undervalued levels and I think the longer RM stays at this level, the more exhausted sellers of RM will be. After speculating interest die down, RM will then strengthen.
*
Unfortunately for us, and for consumers in general, you are very right in the first sentence. We would have to suffer a weak currency which has lost its purchasing power. But,... still, it is better that BNM put in some 'defensive measures' in-place, otherwise, really don't know how far will the RM plunge.
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