Continue from
v1 : https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3461956/+2500
v2 : https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3704916/+2440
v3 : https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3793092/+3300

2014
31/12/2014 - 3.4965

2015
31/3/2015 - 3.7035
30/6/2015 - 3.7730
30/9/2015 - 4.3955
17/12/2015 - 4.3135 (US Fed Reserve increase int rate)
31/12/2015 - 4.2935

2016
29/1/2016 - 4.1550
29/2/2016 - 4.2050
31/3/2016 - 3.9020
29/4/2016 - 3.9035
31/5/2016 - 4.1290
30/6/2016 - 4.0225
13/7/2016 - 3.9865 (BNM reduce OPR by 25bps)
31/7/2016 - 4.0535
30/8/2016 - 4.0495
30/9/2016 - 4.1455
31/10/2016 - 4.2040
30/11/2016 - 4.4660
30/12/2016 -

*29/9/2015 - 4.4565 (Highest)
*29 & 30/11/2016 - 4.4660 (New High)

This post has been edited by wil-i-am: Dec 2 2016, 06:18 PM

-Reserved-

i think 4.4 has a higher chance of happening than 3.8 in the next 18 months.

.. brexit longer term effects
.. persistent weak oil price amid continued oversupply
.. weak china, usa economies
.. currency wars continue
.. usd remains the top currency
.. lackluster local gdp with no major engines but stuck in energy-resources-money sucking @#$% politics
.. lots of debt, more required to keep status quo of "the way things are"
.. many happy with low rm, not complaining

but... most likely it will hang around 4.1x by year end and 4.2x by end 2017.

just my views.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 7 2016, 02:50 PM

Nope. I dont think Banks can afford to cut anymore rates. Look at the FD promos..

Rephrase: Banks in Malaysia only

This post has been edited by ninjawin: Jul 7 2016, 02:49 PM

can you explain a bit why fd promos determine bank int rates?

if gdp is too low, bnm need to loosen to stimulate the economy, cut opr, can the banks keep high rates fd? what about lending rates then?

Bank FD promos doing as high as above 4.4% while the rates are getting more attractive. This means that banks are having issues getting cash(liquidity) depositors. Meanwhile bank are giving out majority home loan at 4.45% ?? These are not the effective rates of course but it seems that banks are operating perhaps in very very thin margin or no margin. This is why home loan have very high rejection rates.

Yes.. bank can reduce interest rates to stir economy. The last time. BNM only dared to reduce the SRR instead of OPR. Cutting down interest rates will have huge effect of bank's profitability. A few banks are already retreching. This is why a few banks already increased their BR/BLR on their own. Not to mention NPL is increasing in Malaysia at around 2%.

1mdb default is also another issue. Since this company's debt is guaranteed by gov , borrowing cost by our gov may go up due to credit ratings.

Just my opinion.

does that mean bnm can cut whatever it wants but the banks can simply ignore it?

Ringgit can strengthen in the coming weeks
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ringgit-likely/

check in new Version


7 Jul 2016 03:30 UTC - 8 Jul 2016 03:31 UTC
USD/MYR close: 4.03998 low: 4.01155 high: 4.04502

i don't think so.. a lot of loans still tied wif old BLR.. It will be interesting to see BNM reducing interest rates...it's like using steroid. Short term benefits and long effects.

well, i am not so sure you are right.

if bnm cut rates, there are consequences on bonds, fx, swap rates, reserves, etc.

it is not possible normal banks can continue to do their own thing while major changes happen as a result of central bank action.


i'm not a banker and not a serious borrower, so i don't really know.

we need a knowledgeable banker here to answer this. anyone?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 8 2016, 11:54 AM

Cost of funding for banks will lower across when OPR being cut.

Banks can issue bond at lower rate to get funding, instead of getting through FD promo.

So FD rate or FD promo rate will also go down when OPR is lowered.

Having said that, I do not think there is urgency need to have a cut in OPR at the moment, as the economy although is growing at slower pace, it is dipping into recession trend.
There are still lot of uncertainty factors.

While household debt is still at elevated level, further cut in OPR that may boost house debt further is not something too healthy to see.

Also, it may weak RM vs USD further, which may cause problem for inflation front as well.

Rate cut is like central bank's ammunition, you only use it if really need to.
Use it too early or at the wrong time, it may not effective.

There is still room for SRR cut if bank short of liquidity (that prompt to higher FD promo rate), before the need of rate cut.
We have seen how FD promo trending lower, after BNM lowered SRR in the beginning of the year.

BNM will hold next OPR meeting on 13/7
Interesting to c new governor direction on d rate

tq for response.

can u confirm banks NEED to follow bnm if rate cut?

ninja seem to think otherwise - banks can ignore bnm, keep same own lending/fd rates.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 8 2016, 01:33 PM

If BNM cut OPR n Bank maintain current FD promo, v can expect Banks PBT to drop

banks can go bankrupt for all sorts of reasons. but that is not the question.

the question is whether banks need to follow bnm rate cuts or hikes by banking rules.

or they can stick to their own lending and deposit rates?

answer seems very hard to find!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 8 2016, 01:39 PM

China could cut interest rates if economic data disappoints - gov't researchers
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/c...ovt-researchers

MYR will follow CNY direction if PBOC decided to cut

There is no fixed rule that banks need to follow BNM rates, as long as not exceeding the ceiling rate, last time, yes, there is fixed BLR.

But when cost of funding is lowered across, if a bank is still stick to higher lending rate and higher deposit rate, then you will see depositors flock to the bank, while borrowers shy away from the particular bank, which in the end of the day, bank lose out in term of revenue, and higher cost of funding, which make the bank non-profitable.

Unless there is only one banks which is monopoly the market, then may be the bank can stick to own lending and deposit rate at their wish and ignore the

It is just like ordinary business competition out there,, if you do not follow the "market price, you may loose out business.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 8 2016, 02:28 PM

Ok.

That means banks will follow market forces.

Which in turn means banks will invariably lower rates if bnm cut rates.

And raise rates when bnm hike rates.

Internal control, layoffs, profits, survival, their own biz.

Except when gomen bail out a bankrupt one.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 8 2016, 02:56 PM

Closing was 4.0350 as per BNM @ 8 Jul 2016 (Friday)