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 USD/MYR v4

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Hansel
post Dec 4 2016, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 4 2016, 04:41 PM)
I think right now the jury is out on where is the direction next week
*
QUOTE(nexona88 @ Dec 4 2016, 06:46 PM)
Well it's hard to say the movement next week..
Too much speculation blush.gif
*
Bros,... hmm,... I'm going to do this,... I'll wake up earlier tomorrow morning and look at how the interbank rates below start :-

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYR%...=MYR=X;range=1d

If the 'number at the top' drops below 4.4400, then I would know the RM is strengthening,... smile.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2016, 09:30 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 4 2016, 09:18 PM)
Bros,... hmm,... I'm going to do this,... I'll wake up earlier tomorrow morning and look at how the interbank rates below start :-

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYR%...=MYR=X;range=1d

If the 'number at the top' drops below 4.4400, then I would know the RM is strengthening,... smile.gif
*
i will also look at the $ index, now at 100.75.

it came from <98 a month ago and peaked at 102.12 just a week ago.

i will not be surprised if RM swings to 4.30 or 4.55 in the next few days.


RE57
post Dec 4 2016, 10:48 PM

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maybe higher oil price might strengthen ringgit...
Hansel
post Dec 4 2016, 11:05 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 4 2016, 09:18 PM)
Bros,... hmm,... I'm going to do this,... I'll wake up earlier tomorrow morning and look at how the interbank rates below start :-

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYR%...=MYR=X;range=1d

If the 'number at the top' drops below 4.4400, then I would know the RM is strengthening,... smile.gif
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2016, 09:30 PM)
i will also look at the $ index, now at 100.75.

it came from <98 a month ago and peaked at 102.12 just a week ago.

i will not be surprised if RM swings to 4.30 or 4.55 in the next few days.
*
Putting together my theory and yours, bro,.. then I thought of the following,...

1) IF the dollar index goes UP, and the USDMYR goes DOWN, then we know BNM's tactics has worked, at least for the short term.

2) IF the dollar index goes DOWN, and the USDMYR goes DOWN, then BNM's tactics may or may not have worked.

3) IF the dollar index goes UP, and the USDMYR goes UP, then we can be quite sure that BNM's tactics have not worked.

It is not possible for the dollar index to go UP but the USDMYR to go DOWN.

Anyway,... as a quick way, if my graph shows the USDMYR going down, then we know the MYR is strengthening-lar,... no need to refer anywhere else. Deciphering 1), 2) and 3) above are just academic,...

The curve pattern tomorrow morning will decide if we have a'dead chicken' event in our favour tomorrow,... smile.gif
cherroy
post Dec 4 2016, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 4 2016, 10:51 PM)
Well,.. now you are saying you do not have a crystal ball, but earlier you said there is not going to be stricter rules of capital control in the foreseeable future. You have started to contradict yourself even before the days start to go by. Why back down so fast ?

All that I have said earlier have been blanketed by my two main sentences, which I have also included into my signature at the bottom of my posting space. So,.. please do not harp again and again, and repeat unnecessarily what you have said of me earlier. Since you used the word allegation in your first 'hit' against me, I have been respectful enough to you to include those two sentences.

I will respect all who put in their opinions and comments, NOT only the ones from you. So, I have put in a caveat into my earlier postings, what else do you wish me to do ? You are the admin, if you don't like those postings, you know very well what to do with your keyboard. You do not need to repeat what you have indicated to me earlier.

You are OT'ing unnecessarily by repeating what I have adjusted !

It is a critical juncture for investors between : the door is closing and the door has closed. You are of the opinion that everything is fine, and with no possibility of further 'closures'. You kept telling the forummers that the central bank's steps are still mild, and not too bad. You kept telling the forummers that things were very much worse back in 1998, and things are better today.

I, on the other hand, am giving the forummers an alternative view. Then, this afternoon, you called my postings as allegations,.. sure, I respect that, hence I put in two sentences to be 'fair to the readers'.

I am relaying this message to the forummers : act first in preparation BEFORE the full closure comes, should it come. No point to delay and suddenly if it comes, regret why mitigation steps were never taken earlier. Events have happened once back in 1997/8, how would we know that such events will not repeat this time ? Anyway, forummers reading my posts are free to do what they think they should or should not do, even before I put in those two sentences.

By the way, what's wrong with taking quicker steps to take up some investments outside, as a form of diversification, even if the full closure does not come ? What's wrong with taking quicker steps to invest in a stronger currency outside ? What's wrong with doing all the above now since the motivation is there, seeing all these events taking place now ?

Now's the time to do so, since,... as you said, there is NO capital control in place, and if we follow the rules and provide the proper docs, it should not be a problem to TT out. If not to do now, then wait till when ??

Till the events of 1998 appear again ? Or,.. to trust what you said that 1998 will definitely not come again,.. and we don't have to do anything at all forever....

My point of view,...you can choose to do what you wished to !
*
As mentioned before, my pov is that if central banks want to impost capital control, it won't start with miniature move, it will be a blanket control.
You want to have control and plug the leak, you stop at the source and big tap, just like what had happened during 1998.
By stopping the small "tap" by only imposing restriction on borrowing to invest abroad, while no limit with no borrowing, is not a blanket capital control.

As mentioned before, one can opine the door may be closing soon, no problem, this is one's opinion,
but posting statement of "please move money quickly as can't even transfer fund out anymore" is a serious statement made.

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 3 2016, 01:51 PM)
Hence,... forummers,... [B]please move quicker before you can't even transfer funds out anymor[/b]e,....
*
I don't think you get the message I want to raise. My message is simple.
There is no capital control in place currently, except 75% of exporter proceed issue.
There is no capital control in place for forseeable future, because I see the move is miniature, it really want to have capital control, it won't be like that, but start with a "bang" one just like what happened in 1998.
I may be wrong, this is my opinion, but I won't tell people should or shouldn't invest abroad.

I do not speculate what will be happening, nor saying 1998 crisis will or will not repeat.
I do not say thing is better or worst than 1998.
I just pointed out real example how capital control was imposed, not guessing or speculating.

Moving money abroad now due to speculating the door is closing is not a preparation but a speculating and panicking move.
Making investment decision is not through speculating whatever event may occur.

As mentioned before, this is a finance section not /k section, we expect forumer to post serious and more responsible statement definitely not this kind of statement. smile.gif
We just do not want to see any uninformed forumer seeing this statement then thinking capital control is or will be definitely in place and asking, they cannot TT money out now? money locked in local bank? etc. <-- we already have some kind of similar posts.

As mentioned I do not have crystal ball, if the door is opening now, I said it is opening.
When the door is closed, then I said the door is closed.

Not all investment abroad are sound one, taking Lehman mini-bond as example. One is way better off with local good stocks or even FD vs the bond.
So please do not panic and rush in making any investment decision merely based on speculating the capital control must be in place or not.








TSwil-i-am
post Dec 4 2016, 11:45 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 4 2016, 09:18 PM)
Bros,... hmm,... I'm going to do this,... I'll wake up earlier tomorrow morning and look at how the interbank rates below start :-

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYR%...=MYR=X;range=1d

If the 'number at the top' drops below 4.4400, then I would know the RM is strengthening,... smile.gif
*
B xtra careful on the movement as it could due to knee-jerk reaction
limeuu
post Dec 4 2016, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 4 2016, 09:18 PM)
Bros,... hmm,... I'm going to do this,... I'll wake up earlier tomorrow morning and look at how the interbank rates below start :-

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYR%...=MYR=X;range=1d

If the 'number at the top' drops below 4.4400, then I would know the RM is strengthening,... smile.gif
*
how can you look at a snapshot of initial trading and extrapolate it to trend?....
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2016, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 4 2016, 11:05 PM)
1) IF the dollar index goes UP, and the USDMYR goes DOWN, then we know BNM's tactics has worked, at least for the short term.

2) IF the dollar index goes DOWN, and the USDMYR goes DOWN, then BNM's tactics may or may not have worked.

3) IF the dollar index goes UP, and the USDMYR goes UP, then we can be quite sure that BNM's tactics have not worked.

It is not possible for the dollar index to go UP but the USDMYR to go DOWN.
*
??

I would think:

.. $ index up and RM up = measures effective.
.. $ index down and RM down = measures failed, backfire.
.. $ index down and RM up; $ index up and RM down = neutral, measures no impact.

The US Dollar Index
Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 4 2016, 11:54 PM
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 4 2016, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2016, 09:30 PM)
i will also look at the $ index, now at 100.75.

it came from <98 a month ago and peaked at 102.12 just a week ago.

i will not be surprised if RM swings to 4.30 or 4.55 in the next few days.
*
The pressing issue is to Short or Long hmm.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 4 2016, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 4 2016, 11:54 PM)
The pressing issue is to Short or Long  hmm.gif
*
don't press yourself so much, take at least a day or two, see what happens first! biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 06:09 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2016, 11:53 PM)
??

I would think:

.. $ index up and RM up = measures effective.
.. $ index down and RM down = measures failed, backfire.
.. $ index down and RM up; $ index up and RM down = neutral, measures no impact.

The US Dollar Index
Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

*
Good morning all,

AV,... USDMYR going up means MYR going down and vice-versa. I refer to the movement of the curve named USDMYR to interpret the changing strength of the MYR. I actually look at the direct movement of the two graphs side-by-side. Hence,

.. your first sentence = to my point 1), YES, again, at least for the short term, or could even be a knee-jerk reaction only,... agreed with William's point here.

..frankly,.. notwithstanding the fact that the ratios are only for academic purposes, I am more concerned with the above single relationship only needing to turn out to be true. Hopefully,...




Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 06:27 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 4 2016, 11:45 PM)
B xtra careful on the movement as it could due to knee-jerk reaction
*
QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 4 2016, 11:54 PM)
The pressing issue is to Short or Long  hmm.gif
*
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 4 2016, 11:56 PM)
don't press yourself so much, take at least a day or two, see what happens first! biggrin.gif
*
Actually.... for myself,... monitoring closely and knowing quickly allows me to, actually, again,.. convert my funds out. Asset prices for my chosen mkts are good now, hence, on top of what I have abroad, I would really like to convert out more asap because I have an objective here on buying what assets at good prices.

And of course, secondarily, though I am aware of varying opinions of what form of capital controls may come in in future, I just do not wish to risk having my funds locked-in should the authorities come up with more creative methods later-on.

For my plans, there is no harm in sending the funds out asap because of my objectives. Even if 'creative methods' do not materialise later-on, and even if the MYR should even strengthen to, say,... 3.5 again later on, biggrin.gif ,... I have decided that I will not regret it because by then, I would have collected enough dividend in foreign currency to offset this drop in value, and I would have bought my instruments at good prices with large margins-of-safety.

The uncanny things that I have noticed recently is when the RM weakens, asset prices overseas weakened too, and vice-versa.

[/B]Hence,.........converting quickly now and doing it asap when the RM strengthens at every moment is of paramount importance, so that I have more bullets to use overseas at this point in time, with good asset prices there currently now.
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 06:32 AM

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QUOTE(limeuu @ Dec 4 2016, 11:49 PM)
how can you look at a snapshot of initial trading and extrapolate it to trend?....
*
You are right - Everybody would need a longer timeframe to perform a graphical extrapolation, but at my current state of rushing for the door, I am trying to capture the initial movements to my advantage, by converting over every single time there are such movements.
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 06:43 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 4 2016, 11:38 PM)
As mentioned before, my pov is that if central banks want to impost capital control, it won't start with miniature move, it will be a blanket control.
You want to have control and plug the leak, you stop at the source and big tap, just like what had happened during 1998.
By stopping the  small "tap" by only imposing restriction on borrowing to invest abroad, while no limit with no borrowing, is not a blanket capital control.

As mentioned before, one can opine the door may be closing soon, no problem, this is one's opinion,
but posting statement of "please move money quickly as can't even transfer fund out anymore" is a serious statement made.
I don't think you get the message I want to raise. My message is simple.
There is no capital control in place currently, except 75% of exporter proceed issue.
There is no capital control in place for forseeable future, because I see the move is miniature, it really want to have capital control, it won't be like that, but start with a "bang" one just like what happened in 1998.
I may be wrong, this is my opinion, but I won't tell people should or shouldn't invest abroad.

I do not speculate what will be happening, nor saying 1998 crisis will or will not repeat.
I do not say thing is better or worst than 1998.
I just pointed out real example how capital control was imposed, not guessing or speculating.

Moving money abroad now due to speculating the door is closing is not a preparation but a speculating and panicking move.
Making investment decision is not through speculating whatever event may occur.

As mentioned before, this is a finance section not /k section, we expect forumer to post serious and more responsible statement definitely not this kind of statement.  smile.gif
We just do not want to see any uninformed forumer seeing this statement then thinking capital control is or will be definitely in place and asking, they cannot TT money out now? money locked in local bank? etc. <-- we already have some kind of similar posts.

As mentioned I do not have crystal ball, if the door is opening now, I said it is opening.
When the door is closed, then I said the door is closed.

Not all investment abroad are sound one, taking Lehman mini-bond as example. One is way better off with local good stocks or even FD vs the bond.
So please do not panic and rush in making any investment decision merely based on speculating the capital control must be in place or not.
*
I get your points, bro(a friendly gesture),.. not necessary to repeat, okay ?

If you think there is not going to be any stronger controls in future due to whatever reasons or whatever signs you are seeing now, I am happy for you and for us, but personally, I am not going to stop rushing for the door and not going to stop converting whenever given the chance because I have my own opinions.

Forummers are getting tired of your ramblings,... and would be of mine too if I don't stop replying to you..
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2016, 08:19 AM

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Euro skids as Italy votes "No" on reform, dollar in demand
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/e...m-dollar-demand
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2016, 08:49 AM

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Bank Negara can deal with short-term volatility of ringgit
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ity-of-ringgit/

Time will tell whether MYR will stabilize or continue to depreciate
bbgoat
post Dec 5 2016, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 08:49 AM)
Bank Negara can deal with short-term volatility of ringgit
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...ity-of-ringgit/

Time will tell whether MYR will stabilize or continue to depreciate
*
For me, I am still taking a cautious watch moment. Lets see how it played out. But definitely not moving whatever I can out. biggrin.gif
Shanglin
post Dec 5 2016, 09:24 AM

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Seems it is an "no event" for bnm measures
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 09:32 AM

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Yeah,... can't do much this morning,... looks like no knee-jerk reaction at all,... hmm.gif

We just lost our value since November 9th., but so did other currencies. If things remained like this, then the only hope we can have is for the USD to weaken due to whatever events. Apart from that, this will be the new norm,...

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYR%...ol=MYR=X;range=


TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2016, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(bbgoat @ Dec 5 2016, 09:13 AM)
For me, I am still taking a cautious watch moment. Lets see how it played out. But definitely not moving whatever I can out.  biggrin.gif
*
M not sure whether there is any window dressing activites on 30/12 to make the numbers look gud
Thus, u need to get redy MYR n shop around

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