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 USD/MYR v4

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AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 06:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 5 2016, 05:45 PM)
I'll just comment that your last sentence is also very right - I didn't want to think much of the rest. Maybe the 'right' of a strength of a currency is different for different people. Then for the RM, I am very sure the 'right' strength for them/us should be a currency that does not depreciate as the years go by.
*
u mean depr against $, which is correct since it is the #1 currency, many internationally traded items priced in $.

in the last 10 years, not many has stood strong against it - i can only think of Yen, SGD, swiss franc, AUD.

others lost incl RMB, Euro, GBP.

the worst losers, u already know.



the worst hit people are the pensioners/retirees.

next worse are low-mid salaried workers.

more so when most food and daily essentials are imported.

crime rate will rise for sure.

so, i don't buy this moronic statement "weak currency can be beneficial".






Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 06:14 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 5 2016, 06:03 PM)
Holding other currencies is not a good way to hedge inflation or protect purchasing power.

Inflation is everywhere and part of parcel of modern financial system, no doubt with a weaker RM, it hurts more than others.

A simple example would be investing in exporter will able to hedge the inflation as well as weak RM.

Investors those invested in those stocks, has gain handsomely over the year, it is not only protect the purchasing power, but also enhancing it, even though it is a RM denominated asset.
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Did I say the main reason for me to buy foreign currencies is just to hedge inflation or protect purchasing power in the country because of the RM falling ?

You can go invest more into your exporter companies,... you said it, "even though investing more into the RM-denominated assets",... the very instruments I am trying to run away from.

You are contradicting yourself more,... you say the the RM is weak, and this hurts more, then you use the eg of investing into Msian exporter companies, then you say no doubt these are RM-denominated assets,...
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 5 2016, 06:03 PM)
Holding other currencies is not a good way to hedge inflation or protect purchasing power.
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if u mean holding cash under the pillow, i agree.

but i would think those who do that do that with small amounts only.

the bigger amounts would have gone into foreign investment vehicles one way or another.
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 06:09 PM)
u mean depr against $, which is correct since it is the #1 currency, many internationally traded items priced in $.

in the last 10 years, not many has stood strong against it - i can only think of Yen, SGD, swiss franc, AUD.

others lost incl RMB, Euro, GBP.

the worst losers, u already know.
the worst hit people are the pensioners/retirees.

next worse are low-mid salaried workers.

more so when most food and daily essentials are imported.

crime rate will rise for sure.

so, i don't buy this moronic statement "weak currency can be beneficial".
*
Bro,...

Don't know if I understood your texts correctly,....

To your first four sentences, sure, the USD is no doubt strong if 'it wishes to be', and well,... okay, people can always say if all the other currencies are falling, RM fall can't be helped,... BUT,....... why must RM fall against the Yen, the SGD and the rest in yr list too ? Why must our RM come up as the worst losers ?

To your final 5 statements, I have the same stand as you do. Maybe a weak currency may be good from a certain economic viewpoint, or from a certain academic angle,... but what I know is this weak currency is hurting my butt now. Whatever theories abt countries racing to devalue their currencies is only as good as the acceptance level for the currency,..... and,......... the existing purchasing power of the users of the currency.

I know our RM does not have the above 2 qualities for BNM to devalue her, it's all in the textbooks,.... But reading some latest inputs here on possibly BNM is thinking abt devaluing the RM, since it's the way countries behave today makes me think of racing for the door again to convert everything out.

Makes me think like this now : "Even if the RM is weak now, never mind-lar,... better change now before BNM devalues it further"........

Edited to correct critical conceptual words.

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 5 2016, 06:31 PM
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 06:36 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 06:24 PM)
if u mean holding cash under the pillow, i agree.

but i would think those who do that do that with small amounts only.

the bigger amounts would have gone into foreign investment vehicles one way or another.
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Err,.. bro,.. sorry, can't agree with the bolded statement. Don't hold foreign currency cash to protect against inflation, be it inflation in Msia or inflation at the foreign country, depending on your plans for the foreign currency, and on yr plans in life. Especially if you are holding foreign currencies of the developed countries, the FD interest is too low,..

Edited by adding : maybe I misunderstood you, bro,.. maybe we are talking abt the same thing,... and are agreeable abt the same point,... biggrin.gif biggrin.gif it's the poster to whom we are replying to, is the one who claimed we are holding other currencies because we think that this is a good way to hedge inflation or protect purchasing power. He better read more of our other earlier postings before challenging on this point.

Better be more sure from now on of what we write,....

This post has been edited by Hansel: Dec 5 2016, 06:43 PM
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 06:39 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 5 2016, 06:28 PM)
To your first four sentences, sure, the USD is no doubt strong if 'it wishes to be', and well,... okay, people can always say if all the other currencies are falling, RM fall can't be helped,... BUT,....... why must RM fall against the Yen, the SGD and the rest in yr list too ? Why must our RM come up as the worst losers ?
...

I know our RM does not have the above 2 qualities for BNM to devalue her, it's all in the textbooks,.... But reading some latest inputs here on possibly BNM is thinking abt devaluing the RM, since it's the way countries behave today makes me think of racing for the door again to convert everything out.

Makes me think like this now : "Even if the RM is weak now, never mind-lar,... better change now before BNM devalues it further"........
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part 1... our power brains incl mo1 already answered u: "it's all external, beyond our control, not too bad".

part 2... i seriously think that is a real possibility given the way things are at this time.
watch dev in run up to GE14.
here, politics totally drive economics, like it or not, talk or not, deny or not.
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 06:41 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 5 2016, 06:36 PM)
Err,.. bro,.. sorry, can't agree with the bolded statement. Don't hold foreign currency cash to protect against inflation, be it inflation in Msia or inflation at the foreign country, depending on your plans for the foreign currency, and on yr plans in life. Especially if you are holding foreign currencies of the developed countries, the FD interest is too low,..
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u read wrong la!

i said holding cash under pillow is not good. biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 06:41 PM)
u read wrong la!

i said holding cash under pillow is not good. biggrin.gif
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Yes, bro,.. I realized that,... biggrin.gif ... I corrected it,... apologies,... notworthy.gif
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 06:39 PM)
part 1... our power brains incl mo1 already answered u: "it's all external, beyond our control, not too bad".

part 2... i seriously think that is a real possibility given the way things are at this time.
watch dev in run up to GE14.
here, politics totally drive economics, like it or not, talk or not, deny or not.
*
Hmm,... to part 1,... can't do anything,... circle of concern,.. smile.gif but if bro Jibby decides to retire to the Bahamas, then RM might not be trailing last ?!??? biggrin.gif

To part 2 : err,.. why would BNM want to devalue the RM as a run up to GE14 ? I was just theorizing earlier that BNM might be thinking of devaluing the RM since there was a posting abt this a few posts back.
Showtime747
post Dec 5 2016, 07:01 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Dec 5 2016, 05:24 PM)
Yes, what you say does have its truth. Investor confidence is one of the most important factor in driving up the value of the ringgit.
But who does those aunties need to komplot to go to midvalye and queue at centre court? rclxub.gif  Cant the just change directly?
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3-4 of them komplot (arrange to go together) and change thousands of USD and SGD. So need to have company
Showtime747
post Dec 5 2016, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 05:28 PM)
foreign analysts talk, plenty of reports, we read.

local analysts don't, cannot, so we follow, culture ma..

u know why la...

politics, emotional... thread gets locked la! tongue.gif
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But the posts before mine talks about BNM's new rulings. As if they can influence the RM back to 3.80 biggrin.gif
Showtime747
post Dec 5 2016, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 5 2016, 05:36 PM)
Yeah,... this makes sense.

I believed I too have said something similar of the above,... we can talk all abt econ theories, investors' psyche, academic equations, etc,... but end of day, I am still losing my purchasing power in my RM. And I continue to lose this as the years go by !!!!!!!!!!

So,... after this round,.. even the aunties know better that they should convert as soon as possible and hold other currencies. Not to wait and analyse anymore onto subjects like if things are bad this time, or worse earlier, and how are the signs this time,...
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You and me have been looking at forex for years. We already knew the trend. Especially SGD, I still remember when I was young going to Singapore, the exchange rate is still 1:1. Apple, pear, clothing, hand-held video games are dirt cheap. In just a few decades, RM depreciated from 1:1 to 2:1 and now 3:1.

Looking at long term, we have structural issues in our economic policies. Until we have a drastic change, RM is bound to reach 6:1 in the next few decades.

What can Bank Negara do ? Those policies announced last Fridays are just noise. They are like trying to build sand wall on the beach for the many tsunami coming in the next few decades.
Showtime747
post Dec 5 2016, 07:18 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 5 2016, 05:59 PM)
That's why BNM needs to act to stablise the situation.

No one will have confidence if a currency, stocks or whatever is free fall situation.
Eg. if a stock is dropping a cent or two, investors won't bother.
But if a stock is dropping 20 cents, 40 cents consecutive each day, even the hardcore followers also will question the stocks.

When a financial target is in free fall situation, punters and voucher of financial market loves it as it is an easy meat to chew on.
There are plenty of financial big boy that punt on trend to make big money.
Look at how oil price shoot to the sky, despite there was no shortage of oil even at USD140,
and look at how punters short the oil market until it breached USD30 mark. Punter long and short the market based on market trend and herding situation.

Herding behaviour can send price sky rocketing as well as freefalling, that's why I said we need to post responsible in the forum, and not spreading any unfounded rumour as it can induce herding situation.  smile.gif

Financial market, banking system is built on confidence, not gold.  tongue.gif
When confidence is lost, you will have problem, just like what happened during 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis mainly because investors lose confidence on banks, due to worry of subprime mess, and interbank leading freezing that leading to liquidity crunch.

You can't built confidence without some stablisation factor.
The peg of 3.80 back worked well, because it stablise the chaotic situation back then, by a stable exchange rate. Businesses don't like flying up and down rate, as it makes business more difficult actually, although it may result in huge gain, if exchange rate become favourable. But don't forget it can make huge loss if it is in reverse situation. Businesses just interested to make a profit through selling product, not to punt on exchange rate.

What we need now is a stable exchange rate, not up or down few% each day.
No doubt RM fundamental especially in term of foreign currency reserves and fiscal deficit may not as rosy compared to others, but there is also no doubt highly speculation factor is adding fuel on the fire.
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Too bad confidence building does not belong to BNM alone. In fact the large part is not in their control. They can only fire fight, like now.

We need a total disaster and melt down, only then we can re-build the confidence from ground up.

With the current economic structure, I don't think we have any chance

I don't know whether I can see it in my life time or not. I hope I can witness the history

Showtime747
post Dec 5 2016, 07:25 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 5 2016, 06:03 PM)
Holding other currencies is not a good way to hedge inflation or protect purchasing power.

Inflation is everywhere and part of parcel of modern financial system, no doubt with a weaker RM, it hurts more than others.

A simple example would be investing in exporter will able to hedge the inflation as well as weak RM.

Investors those invested in those stocks, has gain handsomely over the year, it is not only protect the purchasing power, but also enhancing it, even though it is a RM denominated asset.
*
2 option :

1. Buying shares in foreign currency with high dividend yield counters and bank instruments
2. Buying shares in RM with high dividend yield counters (including export counters) and bank instruments

In the past 1.5 years, in RM terms, #1 gives me ~23% return. #2 only ~6%

Definitely #1 is a better hedge against inflation and preserving purchasing power
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 5 2016, 07:25 PM)
2 option :

1. Buying shares in foreign currency with high dividend yield counters and bank instruments
2. Buying shares in RM with high dividend yield counters (including export counters) and bank instruments

In the past 1.5 years, in RM terms, #1 gives me ~23% return. #2 only ~6%

Definitely #1 is a better hedge against inflation and preserving purchasing power
*
Yeah,... we've been talking abt this all this time,...

Anyway,.. just for academic purposes, let's say we don't do 1. above, but we merely just converted our RM into the SGD a few weeks prior to Nov 8, and held on to the SGD cash till now, at last exchange rate, we would have made more than 6% IF WE ARE TO CONVERT BACK to the RM today at the money-changer. Don't talk too much about the spread,.. Maybank's spread is killing,...

biggrin.gif

The knowledge of investing into the SG instruments just compounded out profits multi-fold,..

Hmm,... having said the above,..I just realized something abt investing into ASX FPs,... 6.4% dividend rate,....sad,...
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 07:44 PM

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"If the RM's strength is like the SGD's, then ASX FPs will be the best investment in the world."
TSwil-i-am
post Dec 5 2016, 08:17 PM

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1st appeal by industry players

MARGMA Calls On BNM To Review New Policy On Conversion Of Export Earnings Into Ringgit
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bu/newsb....php?id=1309079
SUSXnet
post Dec 5 2016, 08:27 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 08:17 PM)
1st appeal by industry players

MARGMA Calls On BNM To Review New Policy On Conversion Of Export Earnings Into Ringgit
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bu/newsb....php?id=1309079
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1st rejection coming up
AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 5 2016, 07:41 PM)
Anyway,.. just for academic purposes, let's say we don't do 1. above, but we merely just converted our RM into the SGD a few weeks prior to Nov 8, and held on to the SGD cash till now, at last exchange rate, we would have made more than 6% IF WE ARE TO CONVERT BACK to the RM today at the money-changer. Don't talk too much about the spread,.. Maybank's spread is killing,...
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i have a real example.

in jan 2015, i bought some SGD with RM.

rate at that time was, on my record, 2.6765.

if i want RM today, i will get, on my broker data today, rate of 3.0885.

no interest, but 15% net over 2 years in RM terms.

ok or not? biggrin.gif


QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Dec 5 2016, 08:17 PM)
1st appeal by industry players

MARGMA Calls On BNM To Review New Policy On Conversion Of Export Earnings Into Ringgit
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v8/bu/newsb....php?id=1309079
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i know for a fact some of them moved part of their production offshore since a decade ago.

they are smarter than most people here. i will not worry for them.
Hansel
post Dec 5 2016, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 08:49 PM)
i have a real example.

in jan 2015, i bought some SGD with RM.

rate at that time was, on my record, 2.6765.

if i want RM today, i will get, on my broker data today, rate of 3.0885.

no interest, but 15% net over 2 years in RM terms.

ok or not? biggrin.gif
*
Ok ! biggrin.gif

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