QUOTE(cherroy @ Jan 26 2016, 09:10 AM)
When economy goods, as inflation will spike, and loan demand is high ---> Interest rate higher, just like what is happening in US, interest rate raised.
When economy no good, inflation died down, loan demand is low -->
central bank often resort to lower interest rate to boost consumption to revive the economy.
If Malaysia GDP growth drops below 4%, the likelyhood of interest rate cut is there.
The recent of higher FD promo has a lot to do deposit growth slower than loan pace
, as recently financial market situation has led to plenty of funds outflowing since second half of 2015, but the outflow seems slowing down a lot lately.
While if loan demand slow down, there is no urgency for banks to chase after deposit already.
That's why we see banks starting offering higher rate for shorter tenure one.
Yes, BNM will definately resort to lowering interest rates to boost local consumption to review the economy. But the issue is, how much can local consumption go around? The country's economy cant just demand on local consumption. This is only a short term effort by BNM which will not help much once there is not enough money to go around locally.
Outflowing of funds slowing down because there are not much to 'outflow' anymore. Market is bad. Everybody needs to have money to run their business, pay their debts etc. Foreigners especially O&G sectors have long left the country and withdrawn their funds in Malaysia back to their own country.
I dont agree loan demand will slow down. Malaysians, majority of them like to be in debt. Every persons needs a loan. Even for a handphone which costs a few hundred ringgit, they prefer to get an installment plan for it.

But the issues lies in the willingness of the Banks to give out loans. NPL is at all time high, more and more people are sued for bankruptcy everyday. Borrrowers are saddled with many loans and bad credit records all contribute to banks being very stringent in giving out loans.