Guys just want to ask. Is the lower boundary of KLCI reach which is 1500 points? Because some forumsr do say KLCI boundary is 1200points

The charts will say it does within a given timeline.

Without time, the equation is not logical. One can always say something will happen, of course anything and everything can happen if given infinite time...Hence, time must be declared upfront for an event to take place for accuracy.

yes, i agree.

and add these:

.. there are lots of tankers on land and floaters at sea now holding all that excess oil.

.. china been stockpiling and will stockpile more.

it is a fact that the world now has excess oil, no shortage of supply for a long time.

you can have war in one place, other supplies will spring into action to fill the void.

and there are new oilfields being discovered; alternative energy sources being developed, esp solar and wind.

but... there are hedge funds driving price up and down but they only care for own profits in their longs and shorts.

i doubt we will ever see $100 oil again for a long time.

more likely $30-40 low and 50-60 high in the next decade.

Shale oil was not in the market until recently.

do u foresee any scenario which would cause demand to spike ?

$50 per barrel is the new status quo. they will have to accept it whether they like it or not.

as someone else already told u , USA develop new fracking tech which did not exist 10 years ago. with this tech, USA has ability to become largest producer of oil even more than saudi.

Lower production to increase price = your country economy affected. (your cash supply decrease)
Increase price of oil = I just buy oil from your neighbour lo.

You tell me how the price going to increase?

I read it as HLIB is so confident RM will appreciate back up to a best of 3.55. The worst also is 4.20. In any case, RM will strengthen in their view and the worst is over.

The most optimistic banker in the market now.

At least the banker has BALLS to predict a time frame - by the fourth quarter of this year. That is what I call a prediction. Come with a time frame so we can judge his prediction is right or wrong. Not an open-ended prediction. People is not afraid to make mistake

Unlike some negative and pessimistic balls-less people here who like to bull shit without a time frame. They will never be wrong and can keep BSing here forever 

It is Hong Leong Investment Bank. A big organisation. They put their reputation on the line in the open. At least they make a complete prediction which we can judge them within a time frame.

I do care IBs or stock brokers are right or wrong. Their opinions affect my decision. And yes, I will form an opinion on who is good at prediction as times go. At least I can judge them if they give a time frame.

For those who refuse to give a time frame while still love to give their prediction with rhetorics, I can't tell whether they are right or wrong ever. They could be right after all. But they have not balls or intention to prove themselves. That makes a debate very difficult and with no ending

BTW, what do you think of RM by this year end ? Just curious to know

this may push the rm to 4.50 tmrw:

not sure what u mean...

today is public holiday, rm not traded directly, no bnm figures.

but credit swaps and fx forward contracts continue. u can see what's going on right now:

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=MYR
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDMYR:CUR
i stopped putting a number to it.

like i said many times, as long as commodities prices stay low, usual gomen carefree spending, more bijan chronicles, putrajaya/bnm do nothing about int rates, it will just keep going in same direction. yes, for me, it's that simple.

this one, we don't know the details.

bankers/economists/rating agencies surely have their way of using models, possibly many models.

these are big orgs, brainy people with high pay, highly influential.

surely not hlib standard.

I have PMed you the good bankers I use now. I won't tell the bad ones 

I also think it won't be better for RM. I will buy if it dips below 4.30 now. I expect RM to fall at least to 4.50 by the end of the year

i think this one has been the main factor of late.

10 yr mgs yield went up to 4.46% yesterday, closing 4.37%.
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?tpl=govtsecuritiesyield

let's watch end of today and tmrw.

The price to pay for insurance on a US$5mil bond has hit US$210,000 in the credit default swaps (CDS) market, said Pong Teng Siew, head of research of Inter-Pacific Securities.

“Malaysia has never defaulted on its debt and has been highly rated but this latest development indicates the market’s heightened perception of risk in owning Malaysian bonds.

“Our CDS has traded better than those of the Philippines and Korea, both of which have defaulted before. Now, the CDS rate of the Philippines, which used to be called the sick man of Asia, is half of ours and that of Korea, one third,’’ said Pong.

“We are approaching that (the CDS rate) of Indonesia,’’ he added.

this is also very bad.

maybe expectations of something some people know enough, and we don't?

like more and bigger skeletons in the closet coming out soon?

e.g., this?

It depends how it is being viewed.
eg.
if we take 2008 as reference point, USD/RM was about 3.40 during that time

Now 2015, USD/RM is 4.40 today.

A person used 34K RM to exchange for 10k USD on 2008, as USD was paying virtually zero interest since 2008, now A person still has 10k USD, which is equivalent to RM44K today

So, A person gain RM10K by holding USD since 2008, now A has RM44k worth.

B put 34K in RM FD on 2008, which carry interest range from 3~4% in this period of time, if we takes average of 3.5%, 7 years x 3.5% compounding is about 27%.
34K x 27% = RM43.2K.

B person has RM43.2K vs A RM44K.

But on paper, A looks like the person "win" big, but in real fact, A only slight better off than B,
while if USD vs RM dropped below 4.30, A actually lose out to B.

Do pay consideration on this issue as well in term of comparison. That's the reason why I emphasis a lot of importance on the yield of every investment.

there is also D whose timing was... kept that money in usd since 2008 and then converted to rm last year.

if can so easily make money/predict the future, there won't be people in this forum anymore, will it?

everyone would be rich already