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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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Martinis
post Jan 24 2014, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 24 2014, 11:25 PM)
Buy to flip is not dissimilar to pre-1997 stock investor.

New launch take 3 to 4 years to vp, doesn't count as holding power especially those with dibs.

Among those who bought multiple units to flip, how many have other income to sustain all the loan repayment?
Among those who bought multiple units to flip, how many have other income to sustain all the loan repayment?
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If they can get loan for multiple units, why not? Why do people always assume flippers cannot sustain the installments? I cannot understand.
Martinis
post Jan 25 2014, 07:04 PM

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of course flippers provide economic function....they provide liquidity...just like investors of ipo or shares provide liquidity...without flippers...developers might take longer time to correct housing shortage which ultimately benefits existing house owners...flippers took away some of these profits

as for the higher price...that was necessary to induce further launching to correct shortage now
Martinis
post Jan 26 2014, 12:28 AM

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Instead of suppressing, government should encourage healthy appreciation of malaysian property market to correct the "cheapness" compared to regionals. Once there are more wealth created, malaysian economy will be bigger as spending power goes up....some goes to investment into capital goods, some consumpton, even more imports to spur the local enonomy growth.
Martinis
post Feb 2 2014, 02:27 PM

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z

This post has been edited by Martinis: Feb 2 2014, 02:28 PM
Martinis
post Feb 2 2014, 03:24 PM

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the further ringgit depreciate, the higher property price will go...property is the best hedge against inflation
Martinis
post Feb 2 2014, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(KChan @ Feb 2 2014, 03:33 PM)
Why RM goes down then properties go up? Based on what logic? Care to explain?
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When ringgit depreciates, we have imported inflation. With inflation comes higher cost of building which translates to higher property prices and hence if you own property now, you are hedged.
Martinis
post Feb 2 2014, 11:41 PM

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QUOTE(frederic9 @ Feb 2 2014, 09:04 PM)
Nobody (except those with vested interest) uses property as a HEDGE to inflation, gold is used as hedge, as gold have FIXED value everywhere. Your property only has discretionary value.

Even that, gold prices goes up & down, sometimes even against the expected inflation outcome.
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Only property can give meaningful hedge against inflation..unless you consider buying a few gold necklaces as hedges...99% of the wealthy people got rich through properties...almost 0% got rich through gold...that speaks volumes about the power of properties.

The moment I hear you say you use gold as a hedge I know you are just a theorist and a small player.
Martinis
post Feb 2 2014, 11:50 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Feb 2 2014, 07:35 PM)
When you WISH to see property price increase, you will justify whatever situation that will make property price increase.

Actually same applies to DDD camp  tongue.gif
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I don't wish to see property prices increase too fast. It is never a good thing. In fact, I hope that things will cool down soon. But for long term investing, properties are very good. Not all new launches are worth buying but try looking for some good value subsales and hold for long term.
Martinis
post Feb 4 2014, 08:55 AM

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QUOTE(stevepinto @ Feb 4 2014, 08:22 AM)
Most ppl says come Q3. its the best time to acquire Lelong houses, any truth ?
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Can give further tips whether to buy July Aug or in Sep is the best timing?
Martinis
post Feb 4 2014, 03:47 PM

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Who says property price increase no good? It creates wealth effect which spillover to consumer spending. Malaysia having problem with low wages and low property prices for too long. Stucked in middle income. You see now minimum wages implemented and also trying to boost wages level. Increasing property prices also force owners to charge higher rentals. In the long run, only businesess with higher value creatuion can survive. Win..win..win!

Do you know how many Singaporeans waiting to retire in Malaysia? Malaysia is ridiculously CHEAP!
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 10:36 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Feb 6 2014, 09:49 AM)
That's the message these people trying to get it though in the forum,  For own stays don't bother the price is too high so long as u can afford it, just pay seller asking price,  even if price fall later buyer r not selling it, only paper no real money losses.
These seller know the market going south, so trying to dispose it to a bigger fool,  if price going north do you think they would ask u to buy & let u earn profits ? die2 also they hold, better than fixed deposit or mutual funds mah.. hedge against inflation they said...lol
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what kind of nonsense is this? for own stay, any price will do? come come, i sell u my condo 3mil
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(yugimudo @ Feb 6 2014, 09:42 AM)
Woah, this statement is like "If you want to drink coffee it doesn't matter what the price is".

You are buying a properties that you may have up to 25~30 years of paying installment, and it is for staying.

Means that:
1. No liquidity. Investment properties already has the lowest liquidity, own stay properties is worse than that.
2. Let say DDD, no job, need money, also cant afford installment. Its either you let go at a price that benefit the "Vultures" or you default your loan to banks.
3. Let say UUU, your house doubled in price, but there is no point as you are staying in it. No increase in rental or no gain in capital. You can only proudly says your house worth $$$$ but it just on paper.
4. Increase in BLR also will bleed you to death if you buy overpriced house.

It doesnt mean dont buy. It means dont buy at overpriced value for whatever purpose.
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Wow! Seriously, just on paper? No wonder with this mentality, you will never invest in anything because paper gain is not gain. paper gain is gain --- go ask warren buffet or bill gates. It is not liquid. Not liquid does not mean no gain. doh.gif
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(yugimudo @ Feb 6 2014, 11:10 AM)
I maybe wrong but my point is like this:

1. You bought a flat at RM30k for own stay
2. At today price, it shoot up to RM80k

Now I ask you, Are you gaining anything? In "value", yes your property has increase tremendously but as long you are not using it as collateral or refinancing, it will only look nice on paper.

I know this because my parents flat which I am staying has increase in price but in no way we feel richer or helping us in economic matters.
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Even if you do not use it as collateral or refinancing, it matters because it affects your net worth. Gaining 50k might not be meaningful. If you are sitting on 3m to 5m of paper gain on props, of course you will take that into consideration for your financial planning. Just because you stay there does not mean it has no useable value other than providing a shelter. The value is still there.
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 12:03 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Feb 6 2014, 11:33 AM)
Paper gain is not a gain until u cash in.

I know some fellow bought a shop lot for 1+M later price shoot up to 2+M upon VP but still wanna wait,  price fall back to 1+M because very little tenants, so the earlier paper gain of few hundred K just a mirage isn't it ?

When price go down no sell no loss,  if price go up no sell no gain,  offcoz the longer u hold the higher ur cost, even stagnant or very slow gain is a loss..lol
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So I guess bill gates and warren buffet should sell all their shares to lock in gains. Otherwise, they are worth nothing. Who knows tomorrow their companies might be worthless. unless they sell now, they are worthless. With such mentality, no wonder you never hold any properties. hmm.gif
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 12:30 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Feb 6 2014, 12:27 PM)
You are really comparing a property investor in Malaysia to two of the richest people on earth? smile.gif
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It is the same concept whether 10k or 10b
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Feb 6 2014, 12:27 PM)
That why rich people can go bankrupted as all their wealth merely "figures" in paper which can dissappear when crisis come.

Most if not all rich man having more debts than their wealth.

Btw I do hold property, fully paid but I don't consider having that wealth as I stay in the property.
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rclxub.gif
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(yugimudo @ Feb 6 2014, 12:32 PM)
In a way, that is the correct way to look at it.

When their stock crashes, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet will be affected the most. However, that will not be the case as they already invested some of their in other forms of commodities or land asset.

It will be silly of them to amass their richness only in paper form. Especially not when their gov printing money like no tomorrow.

And dont assume people are not looking for properties because paper gain is not a gain. People have different strategies of investing. But by buying a house for own stay, you risking yourself from future opportunities if you are too attached to your prop (i.e. heavily invested on renovation).

I am sure that there people or investor that buy investment properties but also make it for own stay and ready to cash out on good deal.
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So when they invest in commodities or land assets, those assets must be also worthless because they have not sold yet? rclxub.gif The way you look at things are really appalling. notworthy.gif
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 6 2014, 01:12 PM)
Like stocks, until realized i.e sold and cash in bank, any gain is only on paper. Valuation assumed if liquidate at that time else is syok sendiri.
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Can I assume you have liquidated your stocks and properties years ago (if any) and very "syok" now? tongue.gif
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 6 2014, 03:23 PM)
Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are holding companies (asset) that are providing POSITIVE cashflow. The share value/paper gain via the stock market is there to either go up or down depending on the PERFORMANCE of this asset. If company is bleeding cash (negative cashflow), the value will drop in the market .... e.g. MAS Airline.

Actually, Bill Gates ALREADY cash out the value of Microsoft when he PUBLIC listed via IPO. He maybe holding 20% of his company but CASH OUT 80% the paper gain/value of Microsoft. And as public listed company, he can CASH OUT or BUY back the "PAPER GAIN" of his company.

Can your property asset do that or not?
Is your property asset's cashflow POSITIVE or NEGATIVE?
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Whether an asset is cash flow positive or negative depends on your leverage. Nothing to do with "marked to market" values, if you understand what I mean.
Martinis
post Feb 6 2014, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 6 2014, 04:08 PM)
Leverage or not .... profit (hence cashflow) is still calculated AFTER minus off financial obligation (installments).
And I'm not talking abt "marked to market" value either.....
Bcoz u use Bill Gates and Mr.Buffet in you comment .... which DOES NOT APPLY at all in the argument. THeir assets are of different class compare to property assets as I had presented earlier.
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Stocks and properties valued same way. Marked to market. No need to sell to justify value.

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