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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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katijar
post Dec 12 2013, 08:55 AM

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sorry if slow ...

"In anticipation of a shock"

A FEW weeks ago, a friend of mine was having a discussion with a property agent. He wanted to flip his condominimum after taking vacant possession but was told by the agent he will find it difficult to sell his property at the price he wants. She told him it’s a buyers market out there.

He then confided in me that he was paying RM10,000 to service his loan on the property. If he were to sell his unit at the price he wants, the buyer will probably have to pay a higher monthly instalment. Just how many Malaysians can afford to pay for such a property?

full article: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...of-a-shock.aspx
tangibee
post Dec 12 2013, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Dec 12 2013, 08:55 AM)
sorry if slow ...

"In anticipation of a shock"

A FEW weeks ago, a friend of mine was having a discussion with a property agent. He wanted to flip his condominimum after taking vacant possession but was told by the agent he will find it difficult to sell his property at the price he wants. She told him it’s a buyers market out there.

He then confided in me that he was paying RM10,000 to service his loan on the property. If he were to sell his unit at the price he wants, the buyer will probably have to pay a higher monthly instalment. Just how many Malaysians can afford to pay for such a property?

full article: http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...of-a-shock.aspx
*
Can stay far away if budget is limited. It is a choice, not a constraint.


Kevin Chan
post Dec 12 2013, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Dec 12 2013, 08:55 AM)
He then confided in me that he was paying RM10,000 to service his loan on the property. If he were to sell his unit at the price he wants, the buyer will probably have to pay a higher monthly instalment. Just how many Malaysians can afford to pay for such a property?
2 million buck condo ??? ohmy.gif
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 12 2013, 08:05 AM)
Thanks for Sharing.

“Thailand and Malaysia economies are fine at this point in time (later ?),” S&P financial rating services’ managing director and lead analytical manager Ritesh Maheshwari said yesterday.

“But an unfavourable global economic event (QE Tapering ?) could affect Malaysia adversely, and this is why we have been highlighting in our reports that Thailand and Malaysia (Only these two only ? then we must be in bad shape)face risks,” he said in a teleconference on Asia-Pacific’s outlook for 2014.“


I think when those who are supposed to be in a very positive camp, like investors who just bought, agents, etc. are feeling pessimistic about the market, it is very very wrong now.

This post has been edited by gspirit01: Dec 12 2013, 09:55 AM
plumberly
post Dec 12 2013, 09:58 AM

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Attached Image

Saw this in today's The Star.

I just cannot believe what it says, at 10% of the price 20 years ago! Typo?

Or is the situation really that bad?

Cheerio.
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 10:01 AM

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QUOTE(Kevin Chan @ Dec 12 2013, 09:47 AM)
2 million buck condo ???  ohmy.gif
*
Taugh property to get loan.

I saw three bungalow projects, with CF and VP issued long ago, left vacant for a long time (at least over one year) already. The price tags is >2 mils. Out of 30 - 40 units completed, only 1 was occupied. One of these projects is in shah alam, the paint started to fade already.
SUStat3179
post Dec 12 2013, 10:08 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 12 2013, 10:01 AM)
Taugh property to get loan. 

I saw three bungalow projects, with CF and VP issued long ago, left vacant for a long time (at least over one year) already.  The price tags is >2 mils.  Out of 30 - 40 units completed, only 1 was occupied.  One of these projects is in shah alam, the paint started to fade already.
*
2 mil bungalows subsale of course will take forever to find buyer wanlah... biggrin.gif

You wanna play multi million props you betta have the holding power...

Flip is for less than 500K props...hence studios is always hot buys whenever developer launch wanlah....
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 12 2013, 09:58 AM)
Attached Image

Saw this in today's The Star.

I just cannot believe what it says, at 10% of the price 20 years ago! Typo?

Or is the situation really that bad?

Cheerio.
*
Actually this could be complicated. Only the insider will know. It may not be developer's fault sometimes. I would guess that the developer might hv spent lots of money developing the infra as well. RM40 and RM0.4 sounds different alot. But, how about RM0.0 vs RM0.4 ?
ManutdGiggs
post Dec 12 2013, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 12 2013, 10:08 AM)
2 mil bungalows subsale of course will take forever to find buyer wanlah... biggrin.gif

You wanna play multi million props you betta have the holding power...

Flip is for less than 500K props...hence studios is always hot buys whenever developer launch wanlah....
*
My fren sold his 6.8mil bungalow bout less than a yr ago. Vely niche but buyers r stil out there. Tats y vely few players. Most ppl buy bungalow for own stay. Vely few in the oledi vely few investors buying to flip. Holding power is important here.

This post has been edited by ManutdGiggs: Dec 12 2013, 10:55 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 12 2013, 10:54 AM

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QUOTE(TiramisuCoffee @ Dec 12 2013, 01:35 AM)
I know of a new agent who bought himself 4 properties last year using loan with intention to flip. With the new budget, I doubt he'd be able to earn much renting out / selling before 6th year is up.  rclxub.gif He really dug himself a very deep hole. He complained he only managed to collect a couple of rental commissions past months. For him bad time has started. The property we appointed him to sell 2 years ago, he still can't sell.  hmm.gif
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Likewise when remisiers buy for themselves is at peak of bull run, and these remisiers are newly joined the trade, strong advocates of BBB and UUU.

AVFAN
post Dec 12 2013, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Dec 12 2013, 08:55 AM)

r most agents now saying it's a buyer's market now?
wat happened to myprops dirt cheap, sgreans-foreigners will snap them all up??
did one stroke of rpgt caused a u-turn? says a lot about how strong really were the high prices just a few months ago?!!
QUOTE(tangibee @ Dec 12 2013, 09:09 AM)
Can stay far away if budget is limited. It is a choice, not a constraint.
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still, in far-away places, price decline can be much worse, demand can dry up faster.
that is not a no-brainer, do need to check n shop around too.
QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 12 2013, 10:08 AM)
2 mil bungalows subsale of course will take forever to find buyer wanlah... biggrin.gif
You wanna play multi million props you betta have the holding power...
Flip is for less than 500K props...hence studios is always hot buys whenever developer launch wanlah....
*
1/2, 1, 2 mil... holding power...
"with great power comes great responsibility"! tongue.gif

holding power is not free, it is simply costly.
some who can afford to hold may not want to do so.
can expect some will dump at zero profit or even a loss...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 12 2013, 11:02 AM
icemanfx
post Dec 12 2013, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 12 2013, 10:01 AM)
Taugh property to get loan. 

I saw three bungalow projects, with CF and VP issued long ago, left vacant for a long time (at least over one year) already.  The price tags is >2 mils.  Out of 30 - 40 units completed, only 1 was occupied.  One of these projects is in shah alam, the paint started to fade already.
*
In 1997, top end properties was not affected by the financial crisis e.g. Country Height Damansara hence some developers believe top end properties are immune to crisis and like to build bungalows. It is fairly common to see these bungalows vacant for a number of years.

SUStat3179
post Dec 12 2013, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 12 2013, 10:54 AM)
My fren sold his 6.8mil bungalow bout less than a yr ago. Vely niche but buyers r stil out there. Tats y vely few players. Most ppl buy bungalow for own stay. Vely few in the oledi vely few investors buying to flip. Holding power is important here.
*
At that level, i think whether you can flip quick or not quick really depends on luck.

Like winning the lottery.

How many taikors out here can afford to live in a 6.8 mil bungalow anyway?
TiramisuCoffee
post Dec 12 2013, 11:14 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 12 2013, 10:54 AM)
Likewise when remisiers buy for themselves is at peak of bull run, and these remisiers are newly joined the trade, strong advocates of BBB and UUU.
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Sorry, still very new here. Is BBB = buy! buy! buy!? what does UUU stands for?
ManutdGiggs
post Dec 12 2013, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 12 2013, 11:01 AM)
At that level, i think whether you can flip quick or not quick really depends on luck.

Like winning the lottery.

How many taikors out here can afford to live in a 6.8 mil bungalow anyway?
*
Since many wont choose tis type of prop for investment, guess the competition oso not there at all. So for those who dun mind to pour in the cash and wait for long, usually ll b rewarded handsomely in another way. Of cos the margin gain might best b on par with some flippers flipping 20 units of some small units studio under dibs upon vp. But lower risk for the bungalow holder imho. Cos he can service the loan. Guess if flippers fail in servicing loan upon vp without buyers, doomed liao. laugh.gif
gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 11:17 AM

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BBB = buy buy buy
UUU = up up up
TiramisuCoffee
post Dec 12 2013, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Dec 12 2013, 11:01 AM)
At that level, i think whether you can flip quick or not quick really depends on luck.

Like winning the lottery.

How many taikors out here can afford to live in a 6.8 mil bungalow anyway?
*
I think would need some luck to sell anything above 2m. Problem is trouble getting loan.
TiramisuCoffee
post Dec 12 2013, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 12 2013, 11:17 AM)
BBB = buy buy buy
UUU = up up up
*

Oh!!! rclxms.gif

gspirit01
post Dec 12 2013, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Dec 12 2013, 11:17 AM)
Since many wont choose tis type of prop for investment, guess the competition oso not there at all. So for those who dun mind to pour in the cash and wait for long, usually ll b rewarded handsomely in another way. Of cos the margin gain might best b on par with some flippers flipping 20 units of some small units studio under dibs upon vp. But lower risk for the bungalow holder imho. Cos he can service the loan. Guess if flippers fail in servicing loan upon vp without buyers, doomed liao. laugh.gif
*
So it comes back to my previous calculations. After vp, it takes +10% to break even after interest, rpgt, fees, etc. if hold for 1 yr. Price not up 10%, not rented = lose money.
SUStat3179
post Dec 12 2013, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 12 2013, 11:22 AM)
So it comes back to my previous calculations. After vp, it takes +10% to break even after interest, rpgt, fees, etc. if hold for 1 yr. Price not up 10%, not rented = lose money.
*
Rental also not easy.

At that level, who rents?

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