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 V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls

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TSkochin
post Jun 5 2013, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(himalaya81 @ Jun 5 2013, 05:09 PM)
I have asked this question to my bank investment officer.

Should based on amount of property as your risk is also that amount.

Should also add into other opportunity cost like tax, rpgt, legal fees, loan interest charges and etc.
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but in truth, a lot of seasoned investors have fully paid off their props.
it might be a miniscule 1% return on present market value, but it could still be 20% return based on their original price.
eg. sungai wang retail lots?

some would be easily contented to benchmark against original price because that's the only payment they paid.
not everyone is a finance wizard. no need future value, net present value, etc jargons to work out precisely.
old ah pek just know pay rm100k today, 10 years later rm10k per annum is good enough. biggrin.gif
Steven83
post Jun 5 2013, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(sylar111 @ Jun 5 2013, 04:35 PM)
Not necessary. If price to high. I can still rent. If I feel that next year will have a property crash. You think it is still wise to buy even for own stay?
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If you were you, it will be not wise. But there are some unknown reason which can lead people to purchase something out from their budget. Such as pressure from internal relationship factor. But the % were low, therefore we can see the transaction drop since 2012 until now. I can't wait to see this quarter transaction data. Hopefully the data are valid and not "modified"
Steven83
post Jun 5 2013, 05:59 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Jun 5 2013, 04:58 PM)
Yes, a boring 3% a year housing price increase is good.
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hahaha....during the 2008 -2012 times, the property price rise more than 3% per annum. Even better then you work in a factory or so. Funny when I saw the price hike like money fall from the sky.
AMINT
post Jun 5 2013, 05:59 PM

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Sylar111 got crystal ball ka? Dont simply say 2014 property will crash bro. Later tak jadi then die wor people hentam u. I also cannot guarantee when. Of course one day it will occur but not for the time being.

This post has been edited by AMINT: Jun 5 2013, 06:00 PM
Steven83
post Jun 5 2013, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Jun 5 2013, 05:59 PM)
Sylar111 got crystal ball ka? Dont simply day 2014 oroperty will crash bro. Later tak jadi then die wor people hentam u. I also cannot guarantee when. Of course one day it will occur but not for the time being.
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Seriously, I still observing. Now Penang stopped to increase in price, but KL still rising I think. But we just need one zone bubble blow to trigger a chain effect. I don't think we should take lightly of any signal. Now I'm looking at Kuching, KL, Sabah too.
Steven83
post Jun 5 2013, 06:03 PM

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Interesting note from CIMB bank auction department...
"Looking to buy property? We've got more than 100 properties up for auction at the CIMB Property Mart Home Fiesta.

Sign up as a member now as we're offering free consultation on the properties for auciton @ Hotel Istana KL, 8 June from 9am onwards."

Last time where got so much of property on auction...hahaha... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Steven83: Jun 5 2013, 06:04 PM
AMINT
post Jun 5 2013, 06:24 PM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ Jun 5 2013, 06:01 PM)
Seriously, I still observing. Now Penang stopped to increase in price, but KL still rising I think. But we just need one zone bubble blow to trigger a chain effect. I don't think we should take lightly of any signal. Now I'm looking at Kuching, KL, Sabah too.
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I think when really crash, then we will see who is the true taikor that can just laugh while others will bleed. Most investors i know have reserves of a minimum of 1 year installment just in case.
Aventador360
post Jun 5 2013, 06:26 PM

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What happens when the property value is less than the loan amount?
Do the banks here recall the loan and auction the property if you dont top up??

This post has been edited by Aventador360: Jun 5 2013, 06:26 PM
joeblows
post Jun 5 2013, 06:49 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 5 2013, 04:48 PM)

of course, the ever crystal ball question of, if property crash does not happen next year, what next?
factor in your 'losses' of another year's rental into the property crash value before you make your move?
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Are there "losses" really?

1) Even the most bull of the bullish UUUU camp dare not claim prop will increase on average more than low single digit % in this year. So net loss due to price appreciation is negligible.

2) Good property takes time to find anyways. Never know that, even if prop prices is stagnant, if the renter takes time to slowly wait and look for the right prop to come along he/she may "save" in a different way: quantitative or qualitative.
Quantitative: Someone may be desperate to sell, or good prop may come up for auction.
Qualitative: Better location, prop sold may be in better condition, sometimes reno done as well.

If you pay rental for one yr but able to buy a prop which has pre-existing good reno done for you at similar price, did you lose?
Martinis
post Jun 5 2013, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 5 2013, 05:12 PM)
yeah lah.
but so many creative people at work nowadays.

5 years? sap sap sui.
there's launches stretching to 48 months delivery now.
so only need to hold one additional year.

some also allow free maintenance for 2 years.

coupled with DIBS, renovation loan, blah blah blah.
the average joe can still leverage to the max.

may i suggest:
1. no dibs (goes together with no creative financing nor funny rebates)
2. 20% downpayment ... period (no financing, no rebates, no discount, etc). if insist on discount, pay 20% of absolute final price. no subsidy into mark up price
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Agree. More effective than RPGT. If property still go up after implement above, so be it. It will go up and down according to market forces. Implementing the above just weed out all the excessive speculation. PLUS, all the buyers will buy subsale because cheaper. rclxms.gif Let the developer and the owner compete on equal ground.
joeblows
post Jun 5 2013, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 5 2013, 05:02 PM)

btw, if someone buys at RM100k the first year.
upon VP is RM150k.
he rents out at say 5% of ori price = RM5k/annum.
adjusted to present price is only 3.33%.
so consider beat inflation or not?
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I consider it return at 5%.

Then also depends what you mean as "Inflation" lah. The one Ah Jib tells you or the one you see with your own eyes.

If vs the figure Ah Jib says it is but everyone doesn't believe because we all know it's a lie then yes it beats inflation.

If vs the actual figure then I'd say it is about at par or slightly below for gross income.

Still, 5% is a reasonably good figure.

But I reckon 5% is still hard to get for 2013 properties, maybe if you bought pre-2011. That is, if you prop can rent out in the first place lah.
AMINT
post Jun 5 2013, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jun 5 2013, 06:58 PM)
I consider it return at 5%.

Then also depends what you mean as "Inflation" lah. The one Ah Jib tells you or the one you see with your own eyes.

If vs the figure Ah Jib says it is but everyone doesn't believe because we all know it's a lie then yes it beats inflation.

If vs the actual figure then I'd say it is about at par or slightly below for gross income.

Still, 5% is a reasonably good figure.

But I reckon 5% is still hard to get for 2013 properties, maybe if you bought pre-2011. That is, if you prop can rent out in the first place lah.
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It makes u ask urself is it worth it doesnt it? Considering that AS1M could give u 7.6%
zuiko407
post Jun 5 2013, 07:07 PM

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Good to see the down camp came back, make the topic move on, so now predict 2014? 2015?
We always give chance my dear friends
TSkochin
post Jun 5 2013, 08:36 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Jun 5 2013, 07:00 PM)
It makes u ask urself is it worth it doesnt it? Considering that AS1M could give u 7.6%
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As1m might give u 7% base on amount vested but props gives u 5% of return by 10% of ur vested amount.
Cocr wise, which is better?

Disclaimer: am not dissing as1m nor promoting prop investment! smile.gif
Steven83
post Jun 5 2013, 08:38 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Jun 5 2013, 06:24 PM)
I think when really crash, then we will see who is the true taikor that can just laugh while others will bleed. Most investors i know have reserves of a minimum of 1 year installment just in case.
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yes, the true taikor will always have reserves. They must have the holding power to do so without over leverage.
AMINT
post Jun 5 2013, 08:42 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 5 2013, 08:36 PM)
As1m might give u 7% base on amount vested but props gives u 5% of return by 10% of ur vested amount.
Cocr wise, which is better?

Disclaimer: am not dissing as1m nor promoting prop investment! smile.gif
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If one thinks straight forward like that, yes cocr for prop is better. What if u refinance ur old house and get a few hundred thousand cash and dump that money in as1m or asb if u r a bumi? Which cocr is better? This is not really our money but money that we loan to generate our money. Hehe. I am not promoting as1m nor property invesment here. Just merely a discussion
EddyLB
post Jun 5 2013, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Jun 5 2013, 03:27 PM)

Prop price crash? Lots of data showing sign of it? Yeah.... Tell me When? Crash how much? If not, what can I do, wait? Wait how long? And the next last question, "What if it didn't crash, and it went up?"
U'll never get these answer dude.......  tongue.gif  tongue.gif  tongue.gif
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That is the million dollar question ! thumbup.gif

The DDD camp can keep on saying it will crash 1 day. And historical trend showed this day will definitely come because everything that goes up, will come down. So, they are bound to be correct 1 day.

But when ? By believing "that day" will come, they have lost so much opportunities. They have missed the boat this round while many others make money. Of course, there is always risks to invest. High risk, high return. No risk, no return.

I have seen so many people become millionaires for the last 6-7 years, all because of property prices going up 2-3 folds. Buta-buta a man walking on the street who bought 2 DSL or 2 Condo in 2006 onwards is a millionaire now. Those who own land make even more money. Although many millionaires are still on paper, but at least they are millionaires in their own rights.

Sometimes, I really pity those who missed the boat. Opportunity of a life time is lost. Some DDD camp like tat3179 and tikaram realised their mistake and turn to BBB mode. So, it is still not too late. I think they are clever, because they 不跟钱过不去. Whereas some die hard DDD camp still in denial mode after so many years and never given up on their belief. The only good thing about holding to their belief is that they limit their risk laugh.gif

As long as an investor has holding power, it is never too risky to invest. Even if the market crashed, but in long term property will shoot up again as proven in the 1980s and 1990s (2000s property market never really came down). So the key is holding power. If an investors have other sources like a job to service bank loans, even if it is not tenanted, the investors do not need to do fire sale. The real risk is the investor does not have holding power and over-leveraged.
kh8668
post Jun 5 2013, 11:32 PM

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AMINT
post Jun 5 2013, 11:35 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Jun 5 2013, 11:32 PM)
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Wtf. Bukit jelutong and alam impian so f***ing cheap last time. Now damn expensive
kh8668
post Jun 5 2013, 11:37 PM

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