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 V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls

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Martinis
post Jun 5 2013, 06:51 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 5 2013, 05:12 PM)
yeah lah.
but so many creative people at work nowadays.

5 years? sap sap sui.
there's launches stretching to 48 months delivery now.
so only need to hold one additional year.

some also allow free maintenance for 2 years.

coupled with DIBS, renovation loan, blah blah blah.
the average joe can still leverage to the max.

may i suggest:
1. no dibs (goes together with no creative financing nor funny rebates)
2. 20% downpayment ... period (no financing, no rebates, no discount, etc). if insist on discount, pay 20% of absolute final price. no subsidy into mark up price
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Agree. More effective than RPGT. If property still go up after implement above, so be it. It will go up and down according to market forces. Implementing the above just weed out all the excessive speculation. PLUS, all the buyers will buy subsale because cheaper. rclxms.gif Let the developer and the owner compete on equal ground.
Martinis
post Jun 24 2013, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 23 2013, 01:40 PM)
compare to 2002 when i first live in sh, the price now has increased more than 10 times. from rmb6k/m2 (my apartment in xujiahui and now worth rmb60k/m2. many ppl do not expect so much increase 5, 10 years ago and keep saying bubbles, bubbles since 2005... (when sh prop 2-3x like now in KL)
i m lucky as i hv gone thru all these when work overseas n start accumulate kl prop since 20 years ago.
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Hi Lucerne,

It is hard to believe such appreciation rate. From 2002 to 2013, increase 10 times? In between this 11 year period, any correction before? Is your apartment in Xuijiahui considered the exceptional performers? What about other districts?


Thank you very much.
Martinis
post Jul 3 2013, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Jul 2 2013, 10:29 PM)
Every year there will be the normal inflation caused escalation in prices and property is not spared. We must be careful not to associate ALL price increases with a potential property bubble. Property bubbles are usually created after a prolonged period of sharp increases in prices which may not be sustainable in the long run. Im not sure if Klang Valley falls under this category or not. Yes we are seeing increases the past 6 years but does it qualify as a predecessor to a bubble?  hmm.gif
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Exactly.
Martinis
post Jul 3 2013, 11:06 AM

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QUOTE(lightbulk @ Jul 2 2013, 10:52 PM)
Ho chin soon a former valuer said property price appreciation over the past ten yrs at its reasonable value.
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Something like 5.9% per annum since 1990. Does not look like a bubble to me too unless the down camp have solid reasons to believe otherwise.

what are the 1 or 2 most solid reasons property must crash from here????
Martinis
post Jul 6 2013, 11:11 PM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Jul 6 2013, 05:24 PM)
you still don't get it. to sustain the price, the market need at least to maintain the increment rate. Even a slower growth, i.e from avg 16% become 8% (I cited an actual example), will kill the market if it is certain that the rate of buying was peak in 2012. Imagine that, once the supply was flood to the market, where there is enough credit available to absorb? Yes, if our economy is great and income growth compensate the shortfall but...... sign

I afraid there would be more and more distress sellers as days pass.....
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Why do you say a slower growth will kill the market? Dun understand. Please elaborate.
Martinis
post Jul 7 2013, 12:08 AM

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QUOTE(agentdiary @ Jul 6 2013, 11:41 PM)
1. When rate is 10%, you able to sell/built 100 car a month.
2. When rate drop to 5%, interests payment cut by half, you able to built/sell 200 cars as more people can afford.
3. Good time, profits good.
4. Rate drop further to 4%. Party even more rigorously. Bonus increase. Spending increase. Shopping every weekend.
5. Demand is so good and you increase capacity to 400.
6. Same time, more competitors comes to the party. Total capacity also increased substantially.
7. Suddenly authority intervene by limiting loan as debts mounting.
8. Buyer shrink as loan difficult to get.
9. Inventory built up and builder become distress seller.

POINT (5) is where the risk for the builder come. Capex increase and only able to meet by increase buyer (increase credit growth larger than previously). Get it? No?  cry.gif  cry.gif
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Read that Michael Yam says in fact there is insufficient supply. CIMB research also reports that housing starts lowest in 2011 or 2012. So, is it too much supply or insufficient supply? I think there is a shortage of supply. This shortage is going to get worse. How to drop?

Shortening tenure from 40 years to 35 years is not limiting loans and will hardly have any effects. Purchasers with the strongest purchasing power mostly 35 years or older. they could not even get more than 25 to 30 years for loans anyway.

Last thing, it is not a foregone conclusion that rates must go up. It might stay put or even go lower.

All you just stated are just your PROJECTION.

Get it? No?
Martinis
post Jul 8 2013, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(Iceman74 @ Jul 8 2013, 12:12 AM)
haha...very subjective wor.
Let said, if Serdang area factory brought last 3-5years ago. now  drool.gif & still hot hot
If PJ uptown area, how to enter now wor. either pay premium high price or watch & wait.
Bdr Puteri Puchong shoplot, u dare masuk or not? tongue.gif

All is my personal opinions, dun tembak me later  laugh.gif
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I see so many factory areas in Serdang and more being built. Not familiar with factories but is there so much demand? Or just speculation?
Martinis
post Jul 8 2013, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(doremon4 @ Jul 8 2013, 06:47 PM)
Try Taman Putra Prima, freehold G & G. slightly sub 400K
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Are those 18*60 type? Very narrow lah. And those are not really gated and guarded. Boom gate style.

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