QUOTE(kochin @ May 31 2013, 03:40 PM)
The ones with least exposure to banks, developers and property.V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls
V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls
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May 31 2013, 04:33 PM
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#1
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Jun 3 2013, 03:48 PM
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#2
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QUOTE(kochin @ May 31 2013, 04:38 PM) not really the type of answers i'm trying to look for. Yes, since the market is overpriced it will (I believe) correct violently and for a short season properties may be underpriced (a la US housing market in 08 and 09). it's true that someone who have least exposure to banks, developers and property may suffer less compared to others who are more vested in those. but is there any industries or profession which actually benefits correspondingly with direct property downturn? eg.... when a prop drops 100k, does someone stands to pocket a % of that 100k through other means? Someone who has very little (or no) exposure to trouble, will stand to gain easily 100k from buying at the trough and holding. |
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Jun 3 2013, 03:52 PM
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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 3 2013, 08:36 AM) for starters, mk10 site is bigger than mk11 yet having less unit. MK 10 units are big though.mk10, being on slightly elevated ground, have higher height compared to mk11. it's elevated deck at the podium stretches more than 1km. each unit comes with steam bath. and of course, it also scored higher quality rating by bca between these 2. mk11 main focal was the architectural and it's floating deck podium. some may find it's facade too commercial like. while mk10 do seems boring but at least it would stand the test of time being the boring old look. but don't get me wrong, both are good product except i prefer 10 over 11. 11 is more expensive being smaller unit and launched later. what about seni? and the upcoming competition from icon, concerto, verdana? 700psf, not 700sf. Agree that it is more "value for money" (LOL as if any property is value for money now) than MK 11 but even in any sort of property market, big condo units are slower to shift. An investor needs to be patient. Rental for bigger unit also typically lower psf than smaller unit and lower demand (due to high cost they have limited takers, mostly expat, as locals who can afford the monthly rent already bought their own residence) and the cost of furnishing is usually far higher. |
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Jun 3 2013, 07:20 PM
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#4
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QUOTE(Aventador360 @ Jun 3 2013, 06:29 PM) If the banks collapse as severely as some of you insinuate no one will be spared. Please take note of what has happened in Cyprus. All of your immense cash holdings in your accounts will be receive haircuts if lucky and if the banks go under as so many of you are hoping then your deposits are only insured for up to RM250,000.00. SO what exactly are you hoping for and exactly how much money do you have tucked in your mattress ??? What makes you think my money is in Malaysian banks? |
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Jun 3 2013, 07:52 PM
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QUOTE(kumbaya @ Jun 3 2013, 07:08 PM) hi, im so sorry to change the subject....but i have a question to ask, lets say if i buy now mentari court at sunway for 150k for investment, what is the price 10 yrs down the road. Who knows? If anyone have such a crystal ball he would be a billionaire already.QUOTE(kumbaya @ Jun 3 2013, 07:08 PM) and lets say if i dont wanna sell it after i purchase it, what is the limit price that can be reach...how far it will go. No such thing as a limit, positive or negative.So far as rental properties go, it could be positive, double in value. It could be negative, stagnant in value, your rental just covering your interest and unit maintenance costs (yearly taxes, maintenance of things in the unit, paint, cleaning, etc). After a certain period it may have some slight appreciation but after taking off interests costs and opportunity cost you may be at the losing end. Any where between the two. For budget prop, lower chance of scenario (2) occurring, and probably not too difficult to find tenants. But managing tenants for low cost is very headache. |
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Jun 4 2013, 11:27 PM
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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jun 4 2013, 08:25 PM) 1 of these days the price sure will go down. Just a matter of time. So, the DDD camp will be right one day. This opinion is not grounded in any sort of reality. Cannot be denied, the 2013 property prices is not as hot as before. Investors are more cautious. Banks are also more cautious by rejecting more loan applications. But the prices are still either up up up, or maintain very steady. As long as investors has stable employment, they can service their loan and has continued holding power The only way malaysia property market will collapse is the world economy take a hard beating. And the effect spreads to malaysian economy. The last property slump in Malaysia is because of the Asia currency crisis in 1997/8. That time many companies were affected, and many properties went to auction. So to see a property market collapse now, you will have to have economies of China down, Europe down, USA down, Asia down. Then malaysian economy will be affected badly, and companies start to retrench, landlord hard to find tenant, foreign investors put up fire sale, and eventually property market will collapse But world economy doesn't look that way now. Although export in all countries are softening, but it doesn't look catastrophic. The property price does not seem to be falling in 2013. But nowadays everything is very fluid, so it may look very different in 6 months time. Malaysia can easily crash despite some of the other larger economies not being affected, or at most suffering only a small blip. Shouldn't even compare with 1997 Asian crisis - at the time the debt was much less, and Mahadey used all our EPF money to bail out the troubled companies. This time though, all the money in EPF two times over isn't even enough to bail out Syed Mohktar nevermind other cronies. Look at Spain. Look at Greece. Look at Vietnam. Greece and Spain economy is in the toilet, but Germany is still going strong. England is recovering. US and China are still okay. Doesn't your theory say that all the big nations must be in trouble before the small nations get hurt? Closer to home, Vietnamese real estate market just crashed 20% last year. Eh, how come? No effect to Malaysia one? USA didn't go bankrupt as well? Interconnection is not always as it seems, you need to look at debt to gdp ratio. And Malaysian debt - household, government and corporate, is very very high. |
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Jun 4 2013, 11:29 PM
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QUOTE(AMINT @ Jun 4 2013, 01:45 PM) Arent you DDD guys tired of saying property prices will go down but IT HAS NOT GONE DOWN SINCE I DUNNO... 2008? I have been monitoring this thread since 2011. after year 2011 ended, property prices have not gone down. ok now is 2012 and DDD keep saying property prices will go down. after year 2012 ended, property prices still have not gone down. ok now is 2013 and DDD keep saying property prices will go down. WTF ler.huhuhu. Like dat every year keep saying the same thing but it didnt happen. What happened was this: PROPERTY PRICES GONE UP. Prices has gone down from subsales right? Or are you still denying it?I am glad to state a few props here FROM DEVELOPERS (not subsales) have gone up. These are not recently launch phases but the exact ones launched before and price was increased: 1) nadayu 92 2) elements@ampang 3) tropicana metropark How about you DDD guys? Show me la at least 3 props from developers that have gone down in price. I am just stating the facts here. If I believe that propert price will go down, I will say it out loud. But from current scenario, I seriously dont see how that could be the case Why look at developers? They have strong holding power. Stronger than you, anyway, since they have a fat profit margin. By the time developers start reducing price from launch price - you will be in too much deep sh1t to worry, as a speculator. |
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Jun 5 2013, 08:38 AM
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QUOTE(AMINT @ Jun 5 2013, 01:04 AM) Ya maybe la. I also didnt wanna point out subsale price earlier (even though mr.joeblows bashed me for doing so) because all the subsales i have all increased in price. So i just quoted the same units from developer also increased in price, apatah lagi for subsales for good props. I think the difference here is good props vs bad props. Bad aka tahi props of course dont have good demand. Good props do. I am getting irritated by agents who keep calling me to sell some of my props and i can tell u the price that they r offering keep increasing month after month. Who is bashing you my friend? I don't bash people.All I'm saying is your experience is out of touch with 90% of the market. Even UUUUU camp can admit now market is very slow, especially subsales, yet you still claim got agents calling you for sales night and day. Ok, who am I to argue. |
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Jun 5 2013, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jun 5 2013, 08:06 AM) I have laid down very clearly the condition on how Malaysian property market will crash. Already stated how many times already?Don't just counter my points lah. Criticize people is always easy. You need also give opinion --> Can you also lay down clearly how in your opinion Malaysian property market will crash ? You guys have been talking about crashing, but until today nothing happen So, my opinion is still "right until proven wrong". Whereas your opinion is still "wrong until proven right" Interest rates rise (may happen), drying up of subsales market burying speculators(already happening), falling rental yields scaring away buy and hold investors (already happened) and bank tightening credit due to worries on prop (happening as we speak). Put all these things together, and you have recipe for a bubble burst. So which of these 4 things are completely not happening in your opinion? |
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Jun 5 2013, 09:46 AM
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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 5 2013, 09:23 AM) boss, i agree our debt is insanely high. as soon as pru13 was over, it sh!ts me to know that our big man is pushing for a RM1trillion transformation plan! while our debt is high, do you have any idea where the funds are coming from? internal or external. if it's external, surely the big boys out there would need some sort of collateral as well, right? else if bolehland go bust, how would they recover their $$$. any ideas boss? External debt = RM17B Internal debt = >> RM475B Its the internal debt one should be concerned about as it has higher repayment rates. Remember internal debt = EPF, LTAT, ASNB, etc and all these the government is duty bound to pay out >> FD Rates or risk public unrest. Imagine if EPF gave "dividend" (actually repayment) of 2-3%, how much complaints there will be. ASNB even worse, Govt needs to pay out about 7++% at a minimum. Any default on internal debt, guess whose money will be lost? Yep, ours!!! There can be no doubt Malaysian govt is in serious financial straits, otherwise they will not be looking at raising petrol prices, removal of subsidies and implementation of GST even though all these will be immensely unpopular moves. |
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Jun 5 2013, 11:50 AM
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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jun 5 2013, 11:25 AM) The 4 things are happening and we have recipe for bubble burst ? But.....but.....but.....where is the bubble burst ? Tak rasa pun ? Don't act foolish. If one can set a firm date for this, I can time the market and be a gazillionaire. Forget Malaysian market, may as well time NYSE.Any target has no value if there is no timeline. I have said it won't burst if the world economy has no drastic changes. I have said it won't burst in 2013. If it burst in 2013, then I am damn wrong Can you state a date so I have a more meaningful perspective of your opinion ? Some believe the bubble is already close to bursting, if not burst already. US Property Bubble Burst Timeline QUOTE 2005: United States housing market correction ("bubble bursting"). February: The Office of Thrift Supervision implemented new rules that allowed savings and loans with over $1 billion in assets to meet their CRA obligations without investing in local communities, cutting availability of subprime loans. September: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency allow loosening of Community Reinvestment Act requirements for "small" banks, further cutting subprime loans.[17][40] Fall: Booming housing market halts abruptly; from the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2006, median prices nationwide dropped off 3.3 percent.[41] Year-end: A total of 846,982 properties were in some stage of foreclosure in 2005.[42] 2006: Continued market slowdown. Prices are flat, home sales fall, resulting in inventory buildup. U.S. Home Construction Index is down over 40% as of mid-August 2006 compared to a year earlier. A total of 1,259,118 foreclosures were filed during the year, up 42 percent from 2005.[43] Look at the bolded part? 1) High foreclosures. What's all those lelong signs on our traffic lights tell you? 2) Market slowdown but flat prices for more than 1 year. Whats happening to our market now? |
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Jun 5 2013, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jun 5 2013, 01:49 PM) Foolish ? I for one is setting a firm date. And I say it again. MARKET WILL NOT CRASH IN 2013 Wow, this is so-called "firm date"? LOL! I wonder why you don't dare to set a date. No confident about what you said yourself ? Again, "I am right until proven wrong", and "you are wrong until proven right". If you don't give a date, 1 day you sure will be right. But when ? Until then, what you said are just rubbish That's the difference between the DDD and BBB camp.... Even if market again slips 3-5% on average you can claim it didn't "crash" just a "small blip". Come I set a firm date. And I say it again. MARKET WILL NOT SOAR IN 2013. Come I dare to make a bolder prediction. MARKET WILL NOT SOAR IN 2013-2017 LIKE 2007-2011. You will be lucky to get low single digit appreciation in 2013, most probably will get a depreciation - maybe slight, maybe large. |
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Jun 5 2013, 06:49 PM
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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 5 2013, 04:48 PM) of course, the ever crystal ball question of, if property crash does not happen next year, what next? factor in your 'losses' of another year's rental into the property crash value before you make your move? 1) Even the most bull of the bullish UUUU camp dare not claim prop will increase on average more than low single digit % in this year. So net loss due to price appreciation is negligible. 2) Good property takes time to find anyways. Never know that, even if prop prices is stagnant, if the renter takes time to slowly wait and look for the right prop to come along he/she may "save" in a different way: quantitative or qualitative. Quantitative: Someone may be desperate to sell, or good prop may come up for auction. Qualitative: Better location, prop sold may be in better condition, sometimes reno done as well. If you pay rental for one yr but able to buy a prop which has pre-existing good reno done for you at similar price, did you lose? |
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Jun 5 2013, 06:58 PM
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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 5 2013, 05:02 PM) btw, if someone buys at RM100k the first year. upon VP is RM150k. he rents out at say 5% of ori price = RM5k/annum. adjusted to present price is only 3.33%. so consider beat inflation or not? Then also depends what you mean as "Inflation" lah. The one Ah Jib tells you or the one you see with your own eyes. If vs the figure Ah Jib says it is but everyone doesn't believe because we all know it's a lie then yes it beats inflation. If vs the actual figure then I'd say it is about at par or slightly below for gross income. Still, 5% is a reasonably good figure. But I reckon 5% is still hard to get for 2013 properties, maybe if you bought pre-2011. That is, if you prop can rent out in the first place lah. |
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Jun 6 2013, 08:31 AM
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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Jun 5 2013, 09:17 PM) Sometimes, I really pity those who missed the boat. Opportunity of a life time is lost. Some DDD camp like tat3179 and tikaram realised their mistake and turn to BBB mode. So, it is still not too late. I think they are clever, because they 不跟钱过不去. Whereas some die hard DDD camp still in denial mode after so many years and never given up on their belief. The only good thing about holding to their belief is that they limit their risk What makes you think those who are believers in property crash "missed the boat"? There are many (including myself) here that bought before in 2007/2008, and seeing the state of the market, sold out. Some others are Rooney, cybermaster, etc. There was even one former member that was a supposed "taikor" who admitted he sold off fully his multi-million ringgit portfolio back in v10 thread. So yeah, continue believing in our "denial mode". But remember when you wanna fire sale that time, do post here. Maybe one of us will take the prop off your hands but of course for super cheap price la. |
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Jun 6 2013, 06:45 PM
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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 6 2013, 03:42 PM) i somewhat agrees with you. They could buy due to their circumstances.some flippers do think they are invincible. but having said so, it's even more puzzling to note some DDD actually bought something in recent months. They could be lying. No one knows. BUT if someone is going to buy just because few people like tat or tikaram claim they buy, shouldn't they do their homework? I mean, come on, it's 30 years loan of your life to the Bank. Someone who just buys cos some people on the internet who are bearish turned bullish is quite stupid imo. |
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Jun 7 2013, 12:04 PM
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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 7 2013, 10:07 AM) - "Anytime is a good time to buy". Y or N? - "Properties prices will usually go up in the long-term". Y or N? - "The market cannot collapse because of demand from foreigners." Y or N? nvrm, i answer for you for this one. N - "Mickey mouse units are the trend of the future". Y or N? 2) Y. But note that is "usually". Not "always". Also note "Long-term". 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? 15 years? 50 years? 3) N 4) N |
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Jun 7 2013, 04:53 PM
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Apparently got some UUUU camp that doesn't like money, that's why they are cashing out of the market and not buying.
Maybe he wants to become a monk? Like the book "The Monk who sold his Ferrari"? LOL!! |
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Jun 21 2013, 04:41 PM
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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Jun 21 2013, 03:09 PM) Meaningless without hardcore down camp mr Wayne, like mr debt who promised to stay till the end but now hiding somewhere, also mr blow job hiding too after cant get the link house in DAMANSARA jaya for 700k, we hope u are sustainable here, babe! Hiding meh?Currently I'm waiting for my shoplot to fully handover to me which I bought subsales end last year, I'm also looking for commercial land but nothing is cheap, one of my friend bought a commercial land many years ago and it was dirt cheap last time, not really big size but enough to develop 20 units shoplot, all facing main road, sold out and VP early last year, he keep the both corner lot and all intermediate units sold at 1.8mil at that time, construction cost only about average 330k per unit, so u can calculate how much he made from this project, I have intention to do so and still search around, making 100 or 200k from a condo is really interested for me nowadays, as I mentioned before I'm earning 2mil from every 3 years from my career, u can choose not to believe and keep shiok sendiri and waiting for price drop. Cannot understand ordinary people need to WORK? Not like someone claiming earning millions here and there but everyday free to TCSS on LYN. I know lots of multi-millionaires and very successful people. All of them work hard. The only rich people who got time to TCSS on LYN all day are rich playboys that live of mummy daddy money, or crony Barisan Nasional. Since you are not a rich playboy or a crony, means you're just a boastful small potato who's a bad liar. Btw, didn't I tell you within two years? Is it end 2014 yet? LOL. Already most share markets around the world starting to show red. Lets see how long Bolehland property party can last eh. |
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Jun 21 2013, 04:42 PM
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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Jun 21 2013, 04:41 PM) So! Have u ask anyone about the construction cost? Don't forget to ask the cost for just single unit and also 20 units or 50 units, I'm still waiting for this, unless my friend bluff me and his panamera and X6 is fake one which bought after earned from this project, and now he still continue his original F&B business also enjoy the rental from both corner units, for your info my brother also contractor ya! Aiyo.....not enough bluffing about your own so-call greatness now you got to bring your "friend" here to bluff us.Good one bro. Good one. |
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