previously, for election year at what rate?

Put at it this way. Are your stocks able to beat unit trust performance? If no, better to put into UT. Of course, best to put into UT which can beat the ETF consistency. Got such funds? Got.

Didn't know you can invest EPF funds in stocks directly.

There are hundreds of UTs. Only a handful can beat gold's performance. Why bother?

I made a quick comparison to check / verify your statement.

Gold ETF [ using SPDR Gold ETF as proxy ] made a annualized return of 3.32% p.a. over the last three years.

While I checked Mutual Fund and definitely more than a handful beat Gold performance in the same period. The top performer is 25% p.a. [ United Japan Fund ] for the past three years. Whereas there are 450 Mutual Funds that return above 3.32% p.a. over the past three year on.

450 Mutual Funds is definitely more than a handful.

Xuzen

p/s I use FSM SG's data.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 24 2018, 02:54 PM

Why not try last 15 years?

If I do, will you later say... try 30 years? 60 years? 100 years?

So why 3 years?

You can't. What I meant is self contribution of RM60k. You have control over this factor. You can choose how much to contribute a year. If you have no confidence of EPF/think you can beat the EPF returns then just reduce the amount of self contribute. And take the balance and invest it yourself.

Apa pulak gold? No one's talking about gold performance. Gold is high risk and high gain as volatility is high.

I used 15 years as I bought gold in 2002 and just held. No manager. NO TRUST.

CAGR is around 11% pa

Employee contribution is fixed. Cannot reduce.

3 years = 252 x 3 = 756 observation points.

NB: 252 trading days per year.

Google Central Limit Theorem. In lay person speak, It states that given a large data set, the mean becomes stable and very close to the population mean.

In lagi layman's / kopitiam apek talk : CLT states that if you have 3 years / 5 years / 10 years, your mean is not going to chance significant.

Hence for active management, 3 years is just nice... not too long that the old data comes in to make the analysis obsolete and not too short to make your analysis short term fire - fighting style, in another word, it is in the Goddilock range.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 24 2018, 03:13 PM

Seems like the CLT has limits on minimum data, not maximum. Who's looking at MEAN? We are looking at total returns over a time period.

But not personal voluntary contribution. Not to mentioned 30% of the excess of the min amount can be used to invest elsewhere to get higher returns.

I have no voluntary contributions.

That's why must withdraw the excess and invest it ourselves.

As you get older your risk appetite diminishes.

6% is not too shabby.

So asset allocation plays an important role. We cannot put everything in stocks. Reason i have gold as well.

Your post above piqued my interest and I went back to do some quick calculations mainly because to satisfy my curiosity.

I look up 10 years gold spot price from www.kitco.com.

In Jan 2008, gold spot is USD 850 and ten years later in Jan 2018, the gold spot is USD 1,310

Using a quick financial calculator, the annualised return for gold spot for ten years period is 4.42% p.a.

To compare, in the FSM S'pore UT table, there are 140 Mutual Funds that have annualised return above 4.42% p.a. for the past ten years.

Why I did not use 15 years?

Because FSM S'pore UT data is max'ed out at 10 years historical.

For FSM M'sia , there are 70 UTF that return > 4.42% p.a. for the past ten years.

Xuzen



This post has been edited by xuzen: Jan 25 2018, 11:46 AM

No way gold can achieve 11% CAGR over 15 years. That's just some pipe dream. The actual figure should be less than 5% CAGR

This post has been edited by Singh_Kalan: Jan 25 2018, 12:40 PM

For self contribution and for states not having public holiday on 31/1 , will one’s self contribution in 29/1 be reflected in the I akaun by 31/1 or by 1/2?

agreed...

seriously I don't think Gold can perform that good..