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 Gold investment corner v4, Will gold price achieve USD2000 by 2012?

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prophetjul
post Nov 30 2011, 08:30 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 30 2011, 06:50 PM)
10 years correlation chart is short term volatility?  hmm.gif Like I say correlation does not mean it has the same value, it measures the correlation between up and down.

W. Buffett does not earn the title as the worlds' best investor for nothing, in fact he does not favor metals very much at all, hence he unloaded all his silver into ETF holdings and made comments on the 'value' of gold. He is a value investor, if he does not see value even as the price is rising fasts he will not touch it. In fact during 1995-2001 when dot.com stocks is going sky high, he said the same thing and did not touch tech stocks even though thousands upon thousands of people got fabulously rich overnight. That time even a magazine declared the end of Warren Buffett's investment style and he is 'behind times' and does not understand the 'new wave'.

Anyway just enjoy the ride while it last, but please diversify properly and not put everything in one basket. Also falling in love with an investment is a no no.  In fact I do diversify into gold via Newcrest Mining, but it is just a small percentage rclxms.gif
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Tell me that the S&P is going the same direction over the last 10 yaers by this chart


user posted image

You gave me a two year chart. If the S&P was going the direction as gold as YOU have indicated in your post, the
the chart should be pretty FLAT. How come S&P vs gold is DECREASING

If Warren did not value silver why in the world did he buy all of 130mil ozs of the stuff in the first place? rolleyes.gif
Its not he didnt see value when he unloaded. He just unloaded TOO early.......silver went from $7 to $12 in the next 18 months and to $50 in the next 5 years.

i have been enjoying since 2002........not seen any change in fundamentals to see otherwise....... nod.gif
cherroy
post Nov 30 2011, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(FrancescoTop8 @ Nov 30 2011, 05:35 PM)
+1.
J.P Morgan also accept physical gold as collateral.
However, J.P Morgan did not accept any paper gold even from it`s own product.   
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405...2457252596.html
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Collateral is not a payment. whistling.gif
You can use house, land or whatever asset even person (in the form of guarantor biggrin.gif ) as collateral to loan money from banks.
But they are not the payment or settlement instrument like money.


Added on November 30, 2011, 11:48 pm
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 30 2011, 04:49 PM)
Maybe Warren is not as smart as one thinks?
Maybe he doesnt understand precious metals?

He bought physical silver and was widely specualted that he sold to the SLV startups..

i am not argiung why is he not in silver now. Why did he sell at $7?  
After he sold, went to $12.........must be real smart.

He must be real smart that he cant beat me at investing in the last 10 years.......   whistling.gif
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Don't forget to donate a little tiny some to lyn, as we have newly born billionaire here. rclxms.gif


Added on November 30, 2011, 11:53 pm
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 30 2011, 05:52 PM)
selling at the rise of the silver bubble?  What bubble at $7???     biggrin.gif
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Why into the debate of how $7, $50?
I taught value of 1g of silver forever is 1g.
Why care about price in fiat money?

Only investor of fiat money system care about pricing. Value investor of silver and gold only care about how many oz.

Whenever one start to think about fiat money pricing, it just mean they are valued in fiat money.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 30 2011, 11:54 PM
prophetjul
post Dec 1 2011, 07:48 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 30 2011, 11:46 PM)
Collateral is not a payment.  whistling.gif
You can use house, land or whatever asset even person (in the form of guarantor  biggrin.gif ) as collateral to loan money from banks.
But they are not the payment or settlement instrument like money.


Added on November 30, 2011, 11:48 pm

Don't forget to donate a little tiny some to lyn, as we have newly born billionaire here.  rclxms.gif


Added on November 30, 2011, 11:53 pm

Why into the debate of how $7, $50?
I taught value of 1g of silver forever is 1g.
Why care about price in fiat money?

Only investor of fiat money system care about pricing. Value investor of silver and gold only care about how many oz.

Whenever one start to think about fiat money pricing, it just mean they are valued in fiat money.
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Does successful investing always make a billionaire? whistling.gif
Next you have not answered whther since DJ beats gold and is proven by Warren B, then everyone
who invested in the DJ must be a billionaire?
Likewise if i beat Warren, i MUST be a billionaire? rolleyes.gif

We are refering to SILVER, NOT GOLD.....you are getting your wires XXXXXXX-ed.
Next the context is WB and his WISDOM or lack of....in this case.... nod.gif

The wisdom in this is: DONT Broadbrush everything just because of an ODDity, in this case...Warren. nod.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Dec 1 2011, 08:16 AM
SUSthis.ia.a.ball
post Dec 1 2011, 08:58 AM

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I just finish analyze and my conclusion is gold investment difficult make money. The reason is because the selling buying price of the bank is to far apart approximately RM9 apart.

So in other words, the price of gold have to go up at least rm9 to make u break even. If want to profit, then depending on how much your target it have to go up higher.

Analyzing the graph of price changes, it takes quite some time before the price can go up so not reliable to make money.

What you guys thoughts?
TSmingophoria
post Dec 1 2011, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(this.ia.a.ball @ Dec 1 2011, 08:58 AM)
I just finish analyze and my conclusion is gold investment difficult make money. The reason is because the selling buying price of the bank is to far apart approximately RM9 apart.

So in other words, the price of gold have to go up at least rm9 to make u break even. If want to profit, then depending on how much your target it have to go up higher.

Analyzing the graph of price changes, it takes quite some time before the price can go up so not reliable to make money.

What you guys thoughts?
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In other words, u did not read thoroughly, There is a bank Name UOB that offered a Rm2 or RM 1 spread depending on the weight u invested.

Recently just a few hours ago gold spike for 40 USD. Gold investment is for long term purpose, if u are looking for a quick buck might as well go for stocks n shares.

SUSthis.ia.a.ball
post Dec 1 2011, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(mingophoria @ Dec 1 2011, 09:38 AM)
In other words, u did not read thoroughly, There is a bank Name UOB that offered a Rm2 or RM 1 spread depending on the weight u invested.

Recently just a few hours ago gold spike for 40 USD. Gold investment is for long term purpose, if u are looking for a quick buck might as well go for stocks n shares.
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UOB doesnt have online banking so means when want to buy sell have to call the bank or go to the bank? Seems very hassle. Maybank can do online transaction right?
gark
post Dec 1 2011, 10:02 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 30 2011, 08:30 PM)
You gave me a two year chart. If the S&P was going the direction as gold as YOU have indicated in your post, the
the chart should be pretty FLAT. How come S&P vs gold is DECREASING
You still don't want to read the correlation chart do you? Read the bottom figure the chart is from September 2000 until Mid 2011. How can this be a 2 year chart? Once again correlation chart is not impacted by prices doh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Dec 1 2011, 10:03 AM
TSmingophoria
post Dec 1 2011, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(this.ia.a.ball @ Dec 1 2011, 09:46 AM)
UOB doesnt have online banking so means when want to buy sell have to call the bank or go to the bank? Seems very hassle. Maybank can do online transaction right?
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UOB need to go to bank to do transaction
Maybank also need to go bank do online transaction
only public bank got online transaction... that also the spread i think around RM7

Do you seriosly read properly the previos posting before? I encourage you to re-read again from pg 1 when you are free... almost all the answers your are seeking have been discussed. Reading improves knowledge.
SUSthis.ia.a.ball
post Dec 1 2011, 10:24 AM

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QUOTE(mingophoria @ Dec 1 2011, 10:17 AM)
UOB need to go to bank to do transaction
Maybank also need to go bank do online transaction
only public bank got online transaction... that also the spread i think around RM7

Do you seriosly read properly the previos posting before? I encourage you to re-read again  from pg 1 when you are free...  almost all the answers your are seeking have been discussed. Reading improves knowledge.
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I have read from page one to this page yesterday. Most discuss the gold price and time to invest and stuff like that.

Eh wat u mean by go bank do online transaction? I already have maybank2u online account. So is mean I can direct buy sell from my laptop during working office right?
ooorait
post Dec 1 2011, 10:31 AM

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QUOTE(this.ia.a.ball @ Dec 1 2011, 10:24 AM)
I have read from page one to this page yesterday. Most discuss the gold price and time to invest and stuff like that.

Eh wat u mean by go bank do online transaction? I already have maybank2u online account. So is mean I can direct buy sell from my laptop during working office  right?
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iinm, maybank only allow u to view the MGIA..
cannot topup or sell.. coz i just opened MGIA yesterday, and check it online..
nothing can be done.. pls correct me if im wrong
potenza10
post Dec 1 2011, 10:33 AM

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QUOTE(this.ia.a.ball @ Dec 1 2011, 10:24 AM)
I have read from page one to this page yesterday. Most discuss the gold price and time to invest and stuff like that.

Eh wat u mean by go bank do online transaction? I already have maybank2u online account. So is mean I can direct buy sell from my laptop during working office  right?
*

Dear sir,

Only Public Bank can do online transaction for gold investment.Other banks, you have to go to the bank.Maybank2u just can check your holding amount of gold in gram.

Have you check gold price in Jan 2011 compare to current price?
SUSthis.ia.a.ball
post Dec 1 2011, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(potenza10 @ Dec 1 2011, 10:33 AM)
Dear sir,

Only Public Bank can do online transaction for gold investment.Other banks, you have to go to the bank.Maybank2u just can check your holding amount of gold in gram.

Have you check gold price in Jan 2011 compare to current price?
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Ya ig ot check the graph from yearly to daily trend. I know is increasing but no wvery high maybe will stagnant around this price. Not sure la.

But Im looking at 1 or 2 months trend for buy sell and gain of around 5%. If longer than that maybe better put in fd or do other stufff?

Cos might have risk lose money if keep too long.

Lets share your throughts.
OneBuck
post Dec 1 2011, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(this.ia.a.ball @ Dec 1 2011, 10:38 AM)
Ya ig ot check the graph from yearly to daily trend. I know is increasing but no wvery high maybe will stagnant around this price. Not sure la.

But Im looking at 1 or 2 months trend for buy sell and gain of around 5%. If longer than that maybe better put in fd or do other stufff?

Cos might have risk lose money if keep too long.

Lets share your throughts.
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Is this your investment comparison: 2 months 5% = 30% pa vs fd 3% pa?

You must be comparing the return based on your experience isn't? Can you share the investment that can generate 30% perannum without fear losing money?

Sharing is caring rclxm9.gif
potenza10
post Dec 1 2011, 11:23 AM

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I am not sure if you can lose your money when convert to gold.In fact, I am more confident to hold physical gold vs paper gold right now.Its up to you.
prophetjul
post Dec 1 2011, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 1 2011, 10:02 AM)
You still don't want to read the correlation chart do you? Read the bottom figure the chart is from September 2000 until Mid 2011. How can this be a 2 year chart?  Once again correlation chart is not impacted by prices  doh.gif
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I dont use your methood of correlation....my correlation chart of S&P 500 expressed in price of gold shows CLEARLY that its DECREASING meaning its getting CHEAPER to buy S&P with gold

user posted image

Meaning your post is nonsense

QUOTE
(gark @ Nov 30 2011, 10:51 AM)

Gold nowadays is more like a trading instrument, where it performs more or less like the stock market, if stock falls, it falls, if it goes up, gold goes up. The 'hedging' is no longer there as the 'beta' of gold is correlated to the world stock market. Gold is looking more and more like the 'tulip' mania like you so casually mention, as then a 'tulip bulb' is perceived to hold a 'value' equivalent to the price of a house, and many is willing to pay the 'price' for it, until someone realized that a 'tulip bulb' does not feed you, gives you any constant returns or have any economical use. Then guess what happened?

gark
post Dec 1 2011, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 1 2011, 02:19 PM)
I dont use your methood of correlation....my correlation chart of S&P 500 expressed in price of gold shows CLEARLY that its DECREASING meaning its getting CHEAPER to buy S&P with gold

Meaning your post is nonsense
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Well it is no longer a discussion, if you refuse to see the point and cycling the same thing over and over again. Anyway good luck with your gold investment. rclxms.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 1 2011, 10:05 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 1 2011, 04:49 PM)
Well it is no longer a discussion, if you refuse to see the point and cycling the same thing over and over again. Anyway good luck with your gold investment.  rclxms.gif
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This i agree since you cant see the fact that that chart refutes your statement.

Thanks thumbup.gif
alex_quah
post Dec 1 2011, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(this.ia.a.ball @ Dec 1 2011, 10:24 AM)
I have read from page one to this page yesterday. Most discuss the gold price and time to invest and stuff like that.

Eh wat u mean by go bank do online transaction? I already have maybank2u online account. So is mean I can direct buy sell from my laptop during working office  right?
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It means you did not read previous post thoroughly. hmm.gif

I went to PBB checked already, the spreading is too much which is around RM7, but with the best benefit to trade gold online from 9am to 4pm business days. However, consider invest 100g@RM200, you losses RM1400 immediately.
Compared to Sg, the spreading using UOB Sg is surprisingly as low as S$0.20 only. However, UOB Sg incurs charge which is 0.12g/month or 0.25%/year whichever is higher. If you are small kaki, then not worth to invest gold with this scheme, but if you are big kaki can easily buy >100g every time, pls consider come in Sg to invest gold instead of in Malaysia cause the spreading charge in Malaysia simply too high already. Looking at long term investment and if you stay in JB south peninsular, you may consider to do that. Somemore, dollar conversion to RM may get higher over the next 10 years.
Btw, I work in sg, and planning to buy some lately. These were my findings to share here. wink.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 2 2011, 09:41 AM

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Nice Essay on Gold's present situatiion

---------------------------------------------------------

My original post called for a short period of asset deflation across the board. I was sure to explain that gold is an asset and therefore the expectation was that gold might deflate in the short term as well. This may still come to pass yet I am not willing to wait…I will explain.

The history of debt has taught us: Inflation makes debts easier to pay. People take on large debts and inflation allows them to pay back the debts with a devalued currency. This is nothing new… the farmers of 1896 backed William Jennings Bryan’s presidential run because he wanted to inflate the money supply-and therefore reduce the farmer’s debt burden.

When examining government debt, history has taught us that governments abandon all stable currency when an emergency threatens their existence: after that perceived emergency governments inflate away the debt. In every case when the debt service threatens to consume the majority of a country’s GDP, the government causes inflation. Right now in history there is no other course for the extremely indebted western world.

As an indebted individual, you could win the lottery or inherit a fortune. Unfortunately there is no possibility of this happening for the indebted governments of the Western world. There is only painful austerity and inflation.

It is dangerous to think: "This Time is Different" because it never is. The Republicans have been using a talking point of American exceptionalism. To define this term: Exceptionalism is the belief that America is exceptional, in particular the capitalism of the US constitutes an exception to the general economic laws governing national historical development. Sadly this is the same kind of thinking that caused the failure of every empire in history. This theory can explain why the U.S. rejects international treaties and uses its veto power to thwart the wishes of the international community. It is the reason why the U.S. has been allowed to be a poor steward of the world reserve currency.

Many countries and empires have claimed exceptionality, including the modern, Britain, Imperial Japan, Iran, Spain, the USSR, France and Germany. Even historic empires such as ancient Rome, the Ottoman Empire and China, have presented a basis as to why their country is exceptional compared to other countries, drawing upon dozens of flawed justifications. We will soon find out rather painfully that there is no American Exceptionalism...there is just a ridiculously indebted empire which has been hollowed out at the core.

Since it is never “different”: gold is the monetary metal, which is a prudent way to short the western world's currencies. Sadly, the average citizen has no idea that their economic system is going to end in a magnificent crash. People wrongly believe that their system is the exception.

To answer the poster's question: the time to buy gold is when the average citizen is unaware that a crash is coming. During the coming election there will be hope...it will be the same kind of hope that ushered in the Obama administration. That hope which now appears to have been killed by the reality of President Obama’s broken promises.

Consequently there will be dips in the price of gold as average citizen puts faith in the rhetoric of candidates, and trusts in their nation’s ability to change course. I do not wait for these dips but a prudent investor might get lucky in doing so.

It appears that price of gold is rightly expecting massive inflation. Unless something comes along to challenge the expectation of inflation in Europe and in the U.S.-gold will continue to rise. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would stay low into 2013-there is no restraint on inflation. Low interest rates are exactly the wrong medicine for America, yet they are exactly the right medicine for a government which wants to retain power. The correct course of action for America is higher interest rates and a painful recession-but just try to sell that to Americans and you begin to see why Ron Paul is labeled unelectable.

I would like to point out that you will not get rich beyond your wildest dreams by purchasing gold. You will however protect yourself from the inflation which is assured. To believe in a sudden recovery or a deflationary course is to believe in the impossible.

I cannot suggest to you that there will not be a pullback in gold. I will only tell you that I do not try to time gold purchases based on dips because I do not know when the end of this fiat system will come. I buy gold now because I want to be short the U.S. dollar. I buy gold now because the direction of the U.S. dollar in the long run is ultimately into the trash bin of failed currency. I buy gold now because the average citizen still believes in exceptionalism.

potenza10
post Dec 2 2011, 06:21 PM

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Price went up again before closing trade for this week.

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