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 Gold investment corner v4, Will gold price achieve USD2000 by 2012?

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prophetjul
post Nov 14 2011, 02:38 PM

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Fake Silver and Gold Flood Global Markets.......
We have read about one Chinese counterfeiter openly bragging about producing 100,000 fake U.S. Silver Dollars per year, and that’s just one counterfeiter. At this point, we are telling all investors of gold, or silver coins, and or any type of precious metal bar to only buy from a reputable U.S. dealer, that has an established track record, and a money back guarantee. We fear this Chinese counterfeit gold, or silver coins, or bars, could be a multi billion dollar a year business, and we greatly fear many innocent investors could be taken to the cleaners.



Based on our research some of the Chinese counterfeit coins, are of such high quality, it is not uncommon for even experts to be deceived. We think its smart for every investor to have gold, or silver, our big worry is pretty simple, what if they invest 10%, or 20% of their net worth in what are counterfeit precious metal coins, that are basically worthless? We would call this a disaster for the investor, and out big fear is there are probably tens of thousands of investors in the United States, who have been duped. Even worse, once again for all intents, and purposes the U.S. Federal Government is a no show-once again.”



“The world needs to come to grips with the largest counterfeiter in the world, the fact that 10% of China’s GDP is a direct result of counterfeiting. If it’s not knock off pharmaceuticals, that can kill people, it’s high tech smart phones, or electronics. Our new worry is pretty obvious related to Chinese counterfeiters bankrupting innocent precious metal, or coin investors, with what could be their life savings. At what point do consumers in the United States, Europe, Japan, or the rest of the world say no thanks to any more Chinese products, given its uncaring attitude about flooding the global markets with counterfeits, or fakes?”

Source: GPCC via prweb



Gold and silver remain one of the few alternative investment methods to preserve wealth during crisis scenarios like inflation or government instability, but taking extra precautions now is absolutely essential to ensuring your wealth is protected when it comes time to sell.

Don’t assume that the dealer you are working with is legitimate, and even if they are, it is possible that they themselves have been duped by a counterfeit.

Those of our readers investing in gold and silver assets, especially if you are committing a large percentage of your net worth, should consider some safeguards.

Work with multiple dealers who have been in business for several years.
Like any investment strategy, diversifying your eggs into multiple baskets will protect you if one of them happens to fall. In this case, buying different products from multiple dealers, all with solid reputations, will prevent you from losing your entire investment in the event one of the dealers was duped by counterfeiters. While not exactly ideal, it’s better to lose just a portion of your investment than all of it.
Trust but verify.
Buy from one dealer and get your investment appraised by another. If you’ve invested $5000.00 into precious metals, paying an additional $100 to have another dealer (most will take a look for free) verify the quality of the assets you purchased is not a bad idea. If you were sold a fake, you can then take immediate action against the offending dealer (as opposed to waiting five years only to find out you’re holding a worthless metal).
Understand dimensions and weight.
One of the best ways to determine if your asset is legitimate is to know what dimensions it should have (circumference, thickness, weight). Every government issued coin, and even privately issued rounds or bars, should have manufacturer dimensions available either online or by simply giving them a call (otherwise go with a different product). Get a digital scale and a caliper and take measurements. Even though fakes can come close to the real thing, the density of gold and silver are unique, so if a particular bar or coin shows an inaccurate weight or dimension, you’re likely looking at a fake. It may cost you a couple hundred dollars to acquire the appropriate tools, but if you’re investing multiple thousands of dollars into these investment then we’d consider the cost of doing business. Take the time to learn about your investments (it won’t take long) and you can save headache and heartache down the road.
Gold and Silver Acid Tests.
Gold and silver have unique properties when mixed with certain chemicals.......
http://www.shtfplan.com/precious-met...eiter_11102011
prophetjul
post Nov 15 2011, 02:07 PM

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=playe...d&v=inn8iVASxLY
prophetjul
post Nov 18 2011, 08:23 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 18 2011, 12:40 AM)

The buying power has been stolen without your notice only.
Gold doesn't necessary hedge you 100% on inflation when there is money printing going on.
In fact, gold has not peak at inflation adjusted pricing even it reached USD1900.
It still fail to hedge your inflation adjusted valuation.

2kg of gold can buy you a terrace house during 1980, but you need at least 3kg to buy the same terrace house now.
Buying power has been stolen even owning the gold.
Not necessarily true.........depends on where the house is.......ask the YANKs...

If your house was in a normal location which has become a prime location
because some politician has an adjacent land, that does not reflect
INFLAtion...
prophetjul
post Nov 29 2011, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 28 2011, 02:39 PM)
I am responding to the statement below.  smile.gif

I feel sad because gold cannot preserve a bowl of mee for me.  cry.gif
aka 1oz of gold can buy me the same goods forever?
It cannot buy me the same bowl of mee, after 20 years.

Last time 1980, need 0.0002oz of gold can buy me a bowl of hawker mee to fill the stomach fully.
Now need  0.0008oz of gold only can buy the same bowl

Where is the preservation of wealth?  cry.gif
*
Are you refering to the the 1980 peak?

Are you saying now is equivalent to that peak?

If not, then its a flawed comparion.
prophetjul
post Nov 29 2011, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 29 2011, 02:52 PM)
I don't know what is peak or bottom. I never know, I am not a good predictor.
I don't know how gold price will be in the future, can be USD 5000, can be USD2000, I am not good in predict those.

But during late 70's, 1980 or early 80's, people also said the same thing, invest gold will protect your money value.

So there were people follow what being said (whether it was me or not, never mind, as this is not the point), now they feel being cheated by this statement for 20+ years or even after 20+ years until now.
Because the last time 0.0002 oz that can buy, now need 0.0008 oz already,  cry.gif  where is the value protection or preservation.
*
Exactly....thats why its a flawed comparison....


Added on November 29, 2011, 3:07 pmIn 2005, a mee soup cost me .00175 oz of gold. Now its .00127 oz of gold.....so value has been preserved between those years

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 29 2011, 03:07 PM
prophetjul
post Nov 29 2011, 03:29 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 29 2011, 03:19 PM)
Conclusion
Gold is a value preservation is a flawed statement to start with.

Gold is selectively preserve value depended on your entry point.
The timing and level of entry is important to determine whether it can protect your value or not, so it is an investment class asset as same as other investment class/asset/object like property, stock etc.
*
Yes and No....which you answered in your next breath!

In your past statement, you mentioned gold has no intrinsic value,no returns?

You are right...an oz of gold will FOREVER be an oz of gold; no more, no less. So essentially, its not an investment.
WHICH brings us back to value preservation........ biggrin.gif


Added on November 29, 2011, 3:31 pm
QUOTE(quackpack @ Nov 29 2011, 03:24 PM)
I think what cherroy trying to say is, we should feel sad when we see the "return of investment" from gold because of the depreciation of paper money.
*
Why should we feel sad?
Afterall paper money(fiat) is a manmade inflationary TOOL used by the powers that be to screw the honest public.

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 29 2011, 03:32 PM
prophetjul
post Nov 29 2011, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 29 2011, 03:36 PM)
Yes, gold is just a shinning yellow metal that is scarce.
It has no fundamental, no valuation point, you cannot value a gold what price should be. It depends on willingness to buy or sell only.

So you own gold because you want to see the shinning yellow reflection of the metal?
Aka you want to own 1kg of gold for the sake want to have 1kg of the yellow metal?
Preserve the 1kg?  biggrin.gif

You don't care about gold value?
So why inflation hedge statement, can protect your wealth statement come out?
This is money term already.   whistling.gif
*
If you say its has no fundamentals, then why call it an investment?
Would you invest in a one oz granite stone?

Did i say i dont care about gold value?
i said an oz is an oz....isnt that 'value'?

Dont understand yer last bit............


Added on November 29, 2011, 3:47 pm
QUOTE(quackpack @ Nov 29 2011, 03:37 PM)
righto but not many realize that when they venture into precious metal, they feel the return is drop from the sky.

many people here wants to invest in precious metal for those gain.
*
Maybe those are wrong reasons? smile.gif


Added on November 29, 2011, 3:50 pm
QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 29 2011, 03:38 PM)
What I want to highlight is don't be naive to think by investing in gold will preserve your money value or a wealth preserve.
Or don't need to worry about inflation or an inflation hedger.
Yes, it can make even more money for you, just like period from 2004-2011, exceed inflation hedge.
But it can fail you totally in inflation hedge as well.

I had seen many this kind of statement gold protect value, gold is inflation hedge etc.

In reality, it is just another investment class asset, your entry point and exit point is the criteria that dictate whether money is preserved or can hedge the inflation or not.

It can make even more money for you, it can fail to beat inflation.
It never "preserve".
If it really preserve, then 1980-2011 lose of value shouldn't happen at all.
*
Can you define investment class when you mention "it has NO FUNDAMENTALS"?
Are Tupils "investment class" assets?

Whattabout 1900 to 2011? biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 29 2011, 03:50 PM
prophetjul
post Nov 30 2011, 07:59 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 29 2011, 04:38 PM)
Who said cannot invest into something that has no fundamental?  biggrin.gif

Value is money term like USDxxx.xx.
1kg of gold is 1kg, just like 1kg of stone is 1kg. There is no "value" in it. Until we define or someone willing to pay for it in money term.

Undeniable, 99.99% of people own gold because of reason?
Because of money issue circulating us.
We buy gold using money, if said the gold cannot converted to money after you buy with the money, do you willing to buy gold?
If the answer is yes, then I agreed on your statement you are willing to own the gold, and 1oz of gold is value at 1oz, but not RM170.  smile.gif

Yes, anything got buyer afterwards, that you can sell at profit, is considered an investment. At least my noob definition.  tongue.gif
Investment - something you can make money from it.

Probably the fundamental I can find from gold, is about gold perception by everyone, aka always got people want to buy it.
Fundamental of gold - got people to buy it, just we don't know what price they are willing to pay in the future.
*
Someone who invest in some thiing without fundamentals is called an A$$$.....tulips?

Value is money like USDXXXX? Is that YOUR rule?
An oz of gold is an oz of VALUE.
Otherwise when bad times come and your 'money' is no longer trusted why do humans
ALWAYS fall back to the valuable GOLD? Is that not perpetual VALUE?
Is not fiat just noisy 'value'?
There is NO question of IF gold cannot be converted.
IT does NOT even need conversion. You could easily exchange gold for goods....its universal money
since time began. So no, ther is no question of IF............

Perception fo a moment? OR is it called peception when this relic called GOLD has been accepted
a store of VALUE since time and tested since time? Is that a PERCEPTION?
i suggest that value perception is found in FIAT, not GOLD....thatsis the REASON
when fiat fails, humans fall back to GOLD.


prophetjul
post Nov 30 2011, 01:41 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 30 2011, 10:51 AM)
Price is what you pay and value is what you get. Do not confuse yourself with either one. If value and price (USD) is not interchangeable then there will not be a pricing and trading of gold. You may 'value' your gold highly but others may 'price' it higher or lower. So gold is not a store of value, but a perception of value based on what the market 'price' it. If the market decides to 'price' it lower, do you still get your 'value'?

Gold has been recently drum up as hedge against 'fiat' money, but even as USD strengthen no longer have any effect on gold, 'fiat' money is theoretically will be devalued constantly. Also the 'inflation' hedge argument, is also not so apparent anymore. If an item is truly a hedge, it should not be correlated to equities at all. The rise and fall of commodities is usually due to supply and demand, but it no longer correlated much with gold.

Gold nowadays is more like a trading instrument, where it performs more or less like the stock market, if stock falls, it falls, if it goes up, gold goes up. The 'hedging' is no longer there as the 'beta' of gold is correlated to the world stock market. Gold is looking more and more like the 'tulip' mania like you so casually mention, as then a 'tulip bulb' is perceived to hold a 'value' equivalent to the price of a house, and many is willing to pay the 'price' for it, until someone realized that a 'tulip bulb' does not feed you, gives you any constant returns or have any economical use. Then guess what happened?

If lets say you decided strongly that 'fiat' money should fails, do you rather own gold or farmland? If you want to eat or feed your family, how much gold are you willing to trade for a sack of rice? The if your gold is only trade able for food, then where is the perceived value? The person with the farmland can constantly produce and since he might not need so much gold (which is a chunk of metal to him), wouldn't he rather get something else in return (like meat?)?

Gold is only useful as part of diversification of your total portfolio, where you are trading to earn from the 'pricing' (mispricing? wink.gif ) of the gold, otherwise it is just another lump of metal, which does not feed you, gives you any constant returns or have any economical use. Sounds familiar?  laugh.gif
*
Who says the value of gold has to be priced by your perceived method of fiat?
It does not necessarily need fiat to price gold. Ask the Zimbaweans. Ask the boat people of Vietnam.
Theres always value on gold because it has for eons being the value storer in good or moreso
nowadays in bad times- thereby humans returning to it, and NOT tulips in bad times.
Funny i dont see humans ever using tulips for trading or exchanging that with goods? Do you? whistling.gif

What you see in trading is fiat gold, not physical gold.
You are right about the mispricing/under pricing.
Is gold REALLY corelated to world stock mkt in the way that you described?
Shorter reaction perhaps due to emotions...but longer term?

user posted image

i am not here to debate gold vs farmland but that gold is value.
What you are doing is speculating whareas history has shown that gold has been used to purchase farmlands.
This is the real precption that you mentioned- GOLD is MONEY/valuable.

Sounds familair but it is value and has always been even when i started recently in 2002.
As far as gold not giving me constant returns, valued in fiat ringgit, gold has returned me 19% p annum since 2002
when i exchange for ringgit. 24% p.a when i exchange in for fiat uSD...... Sounds unfamiliar...... whistling.gif
An oz of gold is an oz of gold.....

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 30 2011, 01:52 PM
prophetjul
post Nov 30 2011, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 30 2011, 02:26 PM)
I don't see I can buy a bowl of mee with gold, nor I can buy a house with 1kg of gold, or buy a car with 1/2kg of gold. They do not accept it as payment, do they?  rolleyes.gif

Correlated or not, I don't know, but I only know stock market beat gold "value", at least from Dow Jones perspective in longer term perspective.
That's why Warren Buffett become the richest man in the world.
If using 2000-2011, surely gold beat stock market, but for the 20 or 25 years period, stock market still beat gold.
Because 1999-2000 we had tech bubble in stock market.

Can we purchase farmland using gold right now?
Do seller accept gold as payment?
I don't know, may be there is, but so far I never see people use gold to pay off car purchase, house purchase or land purchase.
If can without converting to fiat money for valuation, then may be we have a case.   biggrin.gif
Like I want to sell a land at 1kg of gold like that, disregard how much the gold price is.

When you use fiat ringgit or USD, then gold is valued at fiat face already, the value is depended on fiat money already.
The gold value is 1oz, and never will give you more than 1oz.
If you use fiat as benchmark for return, then it is investment, and benchmark valuation is fiat money.
*
Corelated or not? DJ beat becos of Warren Buffet?
i suppose everyone is Warren and all are billionire as long as they are invested in Dow Jones? whistling.gif
Warreb Buffet sold his 130mil ozs of silver at $7 per oz in 2006....hes real smart..... rolleyes.gif

On the matter of farmland i presume gark is refering to badtimes as in TSHTF. Pls read the context.
Dont just shoot off yer hip.

i guess you have not seen Zimbawe or Utah accepting gold as payment. Hell, even Trump Donald accept
gold for payment of his properties! whistling.gif


Added on November 30, 2011, 2:48 pm
QUOTE(gark @ Nov 30 2011, 02:39 PM)
If you say the trading of gold is fiat gold, then why is your physical gold 'value' follow the 'price' of fiat (traded) gold?  hmm.gif Try selling your gold to it's true 'value' (whatever you perceive it to be) without following the traded price, see anyone want to buy from you or not?

The graph is nothing new, as price of gold exceed the rise in equities, it is natural the price of single equity is worth less than the traded gold. It still brings to the argument that price is what you pay, value is what you get.  laugh.gif  Still you say you have earn so much and much, isn't that also follow the 'price' of traded (fiat?) gold? Correlation is based on beta, and not a comparison graph. Beta means if no1 goes up, no 2 also goes up and vice versa.

Oh yeah, they do trade tulips for land, food, etc during the tulip mania...  wink.gif
*
You said when mkt falls, gold falls......dont detract from that. i showed you it depneds on the timeline.

Beta is reaction.....i am showing you a trend which rebutts your saying

QUOTE
Gold nowadays is more like a trading instrument, where it performs more or less like the stock market, if stock falls, it falls, if it goes up, gold goes up. The 'hedging' is no longer there as the 'beta' of gold is correlated to the world stock market.


Show me evidence where they traded using tulips.....during the tulip mania. Thanks

Link pls?

Did tulips ever return as an asset for exchange? Did gold?

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 30 2011, 02:50 PM
prophetjul
post Nov 30 2011, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 30 2011, 02:56 PM)
Come come.. i show you pretty pictures...  the first is gold vs SP, the second is beta S&P vs GOLD for the past 10 years. The correlation is 0.12.. which is 'highly correlated'.  laugh.gif

[attachmentid=2560302]

[attachmentid=2560303]

For the full story of tulip trading for food and land please read the book 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds', published in 1841 by Charles Mackay or you can just search wiki for tulip mania.  laugh.gif

Yep Warren Buffett did sell off all his silver, but is was a derivative contract (fiat metal?) and he did not hold any physicals.  wink.gif  Here is what he says on gold...
And you say W. Buffett is smart to sell of his silver at $7 an ounce, now according to traded 'fiat metal' it is about $30 an ounce. Why don't he wants to speculate anymore now as the price is surging? Maybe be cause he did not see 'value' at such 'prices'?
*
You showed me two years, i showed you long term...does it look the same? biggrin.gif

user posted image

Did tulip become an asset fro exchange again like gold?

Maybe Warren is not as smart as one thinks?
Maybe he doesnt understand precious metals?

He bought physical silver and was widely specualted that he sold to the SLV startups..

i am not argiung why is he not in silver now. Why did he sell at $7?
After he sold, went to $12.........must be real smart.

He must be real smart that he cant beat me at investing in the last 10 years....... whistling.gif

prophetjul
post Nov 30 2011, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 30 2011, 05:42 PM)
Aiyah.. I am showing you the correlation or beta, not the actual worth, look at the graph carefully. The correlation graph is from 2000 to 2010, which is when gold start to gain popularity. Warren intuition of 'value' in stocks, bonds or metals has been unmatched for more than 40 years, so he sold out metals during the rise of the bubble as he perceives the value is no longer there.

If you think you are better than Warren Buffet, then good luck and please don't forget to come visit LYN forum when you are a billionaire.  laugh.gif
*
Aiyah i am trying to show you that your correlation is only for shorterm volatility..............

In fact in the last 10 years as shown by my graph, S&P500 index has been falling vs gold. Hows that the samw characteristics as you claimed?

i have no qualms about Warren B in stock picks but metals? Think again.......

selling at the rise of the silver bubble? What bubble at $7??? biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 30 2011, 08:30 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Nov 30 2011, 06:50 PM)
10 years correlation chart is short term volatility?  hmm.gif Like I say correlation does not mean it has the same value, it measures the correlation between up and down.

W. Buffett does not earn the title as the worlds' best investor for nothing, in fact he does not favor metals very much at all, hence he unloaded all his silver into ETF holdings and made comments on the 'value' of gold. He is a value investor, if he does not see value even as the price is rising fasts he will not touch it. In fact during 1995-2001 when dot.com stocks is going sky high, he said the same thing and did not touch tech stocks even though thousands upon thousands of people got fabulously rich overnight. That time even a magazine declared the end of Warren Buffett's investment style and he is 'behind times' and does not understand the 'new wave'.

Anyway just enjoy the ride while it last, but please diversify properly and not put everything in one basket. Also falling in love with an investment is a no no.  In fact I do diversify into gold via Newcrest Mining, but it is just a small percentage rclxms.gif
*
Tell me that the S&P is going the same direction over the last 10 yaers by this chart


user posted image

You gave me a two year chart. If the S&P was going the direction as gold as YOU have indicated in your post, the
the chart should be pretty FLAT. How come S&P vs gold is DECREASING

If Warren did not value silver why in the world did he buy all of 130mil ozs of the stuff in the first place? rolleyes.gif
Its not he didnt see value when he unloaded. He just unloaded TOO early.......silver went from $7 to $12 in the next 18 months and to $50 in the next 5 years.

i have been enjoying since 2002........not seen any change in fundamentals to see otherwise....... nod.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 1 2011, 07:48 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 30 2011, 11:46 PM)
Collateral is not a payment.  whistling.gif
You can use house, land or whatever asset even person (in the form of guarantor  biggrin.gif ) as collateral to loan money from banks.
But they are not the payment or settlement instrument like money.


Added on November 30, 2011, 11:48 pm

Don't forget to donate a little tiny some to lyn, as we have newly born billionaire here.  rclxms.gif


Added on November 30, 2011, 11:53 pm

Why into the debate of how $7, $50?
I taught value of 1g of silver forever is 1g.
Why care about price in fiat money?

Only investor of fiat money system care about pricing. Value investor of silver and gold only care about how many oz.

Whenever one start to think about fiat money pricing, it just mean they are valued in fiat money.
*
Does successful investing always make a billionaire? whistling.gif
Next you have not answered whther since DJ beats gold and is proven by Warren B, then everyone
who invested in the DJ must be a billionaire?
Likewise if i beat Warren, i MUST be a billionaire? rolleyes.gif

We are refering to SILVER, NOT GOLD.....you are getting your wires XXXXXXX-ed.
Next the context is WB and his WISDOM or lack of....in this case.... nod.gif

The wisdom in this is: DONT Broadbrush everything just because of an ODDity, in this case...Warren. nod.gif

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Dec 1 2011, 08:16 AM
prophetjul
post Dec 1 2011, 02:19 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 1 2011, 10:02 AM)
You still don't want to read the correlation chart do you? Read the bottom figure the chart is from September 2000 until Mid 2011. How can this be a 2 year chart?  Once again correlation chart is not impacted by prices  doh.gif
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I dont use your methood of correlation....my correlation chart of S&P 500 expressed in price of gold shows CLEARLY that its DECREASING meaning its getting CHEAPER to buy S&P with gold

user posted image

Meaning your post is nonsense

QUOTE
(gark @ Nov 30 2011, 10:51 AM)

Gold nowadays is more like a trading instrument, where it performs more or less like the stock market, if stock falls, it falls, if it goes up, gold goes up. The 'hedging' is no longer there as the 'beta' of gold is correlated to the world stock market. Gold is looking more and more like the 'tulip' mania like you so casually mention, as then a 'tulip bulb' is perceived to hold a 'value' equivalent to the price of a house, and many is willing to pay the 'price' for it, until someone realized that a 'tulip bulb' does not feed you, gives you any constant returns or have any economical use. Then guess what happened?

prophetjul
post Dec 1 2011, 10:05 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 1 2011, 04:49 PM)
Well it is no longer a discussion, if you refuse to see the point and cycling the same thing over and over again. Anyway good luck with your gold investment.  rclxms.gif
*
This i agree since you cant see the fact that that chart refutes your statement.

Thanks thumbup.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 2 2011, 09:41 AM

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Nice Essay on Gold's present situatiion

---------------------------------------------------------

My original post called for a short period of asset deflation across the board. I was sure to explain that gold is an asset and therefore the expectation was that gold might deflate in the short term as well. This may still come to pass yet I am not willing to wait…I will explain.

The history of debt has taught us: Inflation makes debts easier to pay. People take on large debts and inflation allows them to pay back the debts with a devalued currency. This is nothing new… the farmers of 1896 backed William Jennings Bryan’s presidential run because he wanted to inflate the money supply-and therefore reduce the farmer’s debt burden.

When examining government debt, history has taught us that governments abandon all stable currency when an emergency threatens their existence: after that perceived emergency governments inflate away the debt. In every case when the debt service threatens to consume the majority of a country’s GDP, the government causes inflation. Right now in history there is no other course for the extremely indebted western world.

As an indebted individual, you could win the lottery or inherit a fortune. Unfortunately there is no possibility of this happening for the indebted governments of the Western world. There is only painful austerity and inflation.

It is dangerous to think: "This Time is Different" because it never is. The Republicans have been using a talking point of American exceptionalism. To define this term: Exceptionalism is the belief that America is exceptional, in particular the capitalism of the US constitutes an exception to the general economic laws governing national historical development. Sadly this is the same kind of thinking that caused the failure of every empire in history. This theory can explain why the U.S. rejects international treaties and uses its veto power to thwart the wishes of the international community. It is the reason why the U.S. has been allowed to be a poor steward of the world reserve currency.

Many countries and empires have claimed exceptionality, including the modern, Britain, Imperial Japan, Iran, Spain, the USSR, France and Germany. Even historic empires such as ancient Rome, the Ottoman Empire and China, have presented a basis as to why their country is exceptional compared to other countries, drawing upon dozens of flawed justifications. We will soon find out rather painfully that there is no American Exceptionalism...there is just a ridiculously indebted empire which has been hollowed out at the core.

Since it is never “different”: gold is the monetary metal, which is a prudent way to short the western world's currencies. Sadly, the average citizen has no idea that their economic system is going to end in a magnificent crash. People wrongly believe that their system is the exception.

To answer the poster's question: the time to buy gold is when the average citizen is unaware that a crash is coming. During the coming election there will be hope...it will be the same kind of hope that ushered in the Obama administration. That hope which now appears to have been killed by the reality of President Obama’s broken promises.

Consequently there will be dips in the price of gold as average citizen puts faith in the rhetoric of candidates, and trusts in their nation’s ability to change course. I do not wait for these dips but a prudent investor might get lucky in doing so.

It appears that price of gold is rightly expecting massive inflation. Unless something comes along to challenge the expectation of inflation in Europe and in the U.S.-gold will continue to rise. Since the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would stay low into 2013-there is no restraint on inflation. Low interest rates are exactly the wrong medicine for America, yet they are exactly the right medicine for a government which wants to retain power. The correct course of action for America is higher interest rates and a painful recession-but just try to sell that to Americans and you begin to see why Ron Paul is labeled unelectable.

I would like to point out that you will not get rich beyond your wildest dreams by purchasing gold. You will however protect yourself from the inflation which is assured. To believe in a sudden recovery or a deflationary course is to believe in the impossible.

I cannot suggest to you that there will not be a pullback in gold. I will only tell you that I do not try to time gold purchases based on dips because I do not know when the end of this fiat system will come. I buy gold now because I want to be short the U.S. dollar. I buy gold now because the direction of the U.S. dollar in the long run is ultimately into the trash bin of failed currency. I buy gold now because the average citizen still believes in exceptionalism.

prophetjul
post Dec 3 2011, 08:30 AM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Dec 2 2011, 11:14 PM)
i read some where. It's a private deal lah.
4 more info PM me.
Yes. It was supposedly for the startup of the SLV-Silver EtF....still Warren SOLD at low price at $7
prophetjul
post Dec 7 2011, 09:24 AM

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QUOTE(Irresistible @ Dec 6 2011, 09:31 PM)
This topic is not so hot anymore .....  hmm.gif
*
Just like 2002.......... No one wants to know..... biggrin.gif

Typical........ these threads are just like Kopitiam......not really educational et al...... *yawn
prophetjul
post Dec 19 2011, 08:09 AM

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Liquidation of Customer Stored Gold and Silver Bullion From MF Global
Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011
Dec 17, 2011 - 12:27 PM

By: Jesse


The bottom line is that apparently some warehouses and bullion dealers are not a safe place to store your gold and silver, even if you hold a specific warehouse receipt. In an oligarchy, private ownership is merely a concept, subject to interpretation and confiscation.

Although the details and the individual perpetrators are yet to be disclosed, what is now painfully clear is that the CFTC and CME regulated futures system is defaulting on its obligations. This did not even happen in the big failures like Lehman and Bear Sterns in which the customer accounts were kept whole and transferred before the liquidation proces
Obviously holding unallocated gold and silver in a fractional reserve scheme is subject to much more counterparty risk than many might have previously admitted. If a major bullion bank were to declare bankruptcy or a major exchange a default, how would it affect you? Do you think your property claims would be protected based on what you have seen this year?

You always have counter-party risk if you hold gold and silver through another party, even if they are a Primary Dealer of the Federal Reserve. As Ben said, the Fed offers no seal of approval.

If a Bankruptcy Trustee can pool your bullion into the rest of the paper assets and then liquidate it at prices that are being front run by the Street, you will have to accept whatever paper settlement that they give you.

The customer money and bullion assets are not lost, or rehypothecated or anything else. This is a pseudo-legal fig leaf, a convenient rationalization.

The customer assets were stolen, and given to at least one major financial institution by MF Global to satisfy an 11th hour margin call in the week of their bankruptcy, even as MF Global was paying bonuses to its London employees.
And now that powerful financial institution does not want to give the customer money back. And they are so powerful that the Trustee and the Court is reluctant to try and claw it back. And so in the great Wall Street tradition they are trying to force the customers and the public to take the loss. The regulators and the exchange are aghast, and are trying to imagine how to resolve and spin this to preserve investor confidence and prevent a run on the system.

'Let them eat warehouse receipts.'

For many this would have been unthinkable only a few months ago. They had been cautioned and warned repeatedly, but chose to trust the financial system. And now they are suffering loss and anxiety, frozen assets, and the misappropriation of their wealth.

How more plainly can it be said? The US financial system as it now stands cannot be trusted to observe even the most basic property rights as it continues to unravel from a long standing culture of fraud.

Get your money as far away from Wall Street as is possible. And if you want to own gold and silver, take delivery and store it in a secure private facility outside the fractional reserve system.


Barrons
The Silver Rush at MF Global
By ERIN E. ARVEDLUND
December 17, 2011

It's one thing for $1.2 billion to vanish into thin air through a series of complex trades, the well-publicized phenomenon at bankrupt MF Global. It's something else for a bar of silver stashed in a vault to instantly shrink in size by more than 25%.

That, in essence, is what's happening to investors whose bars of silver and gold were held through accounts with MF Global.

The trustee overseeing the liquidation of the failed brokerage has proposed dumping all remaining customer assets—gold, silver, cash, options, futures and commodities—into a single pool that would pay customers only 72% of the value of their holdings. In other words, while traders already may have paid the full price for delivery of specific bars of gold or silver—and hold "warehouse receipts" to prove it—they'll have to forfeit 28% of the value.

That has investors fuming. "Warehouse receipts, like gold bars, are our property, 100%," contends John Roe, a partner in BTR Trading, a Chicago futures-trading firm. He personally lost several hundred thousand dollars in investments via MF Global; his clients lost even more. "We are a unique class, and instead, the trustee is doing a radical redistribution of property," he says.

Roe and others point out that, unlike other MF Global customers, who held paper assets, those with warehouse receipts have claims on assets that still exist and can be readily identified.

The tussle has been obscured by former CEO Jon Corzine's appearances on Capitol Hill. But it's a burning issue for the Commodity Customer Coalition, a group that says it represents some 8,000 investors—many of them hedge funds—with exposure to MF Global. "I've issued a declaration of war," says James Koutoulas, lead attorney for the group, and CEO of Typhon Capital Management.

At stake is an unspecified, but apparently large, volume of gold and silver bars slated for delivery to traders through accounts at MF Global, which filed for bankruptcy on Oct. 31. Adding insult to the injury: Of the 28% haircut, attorney and liquidation trustee James Giddens has frozen all asset classes, meaning that traders have sat helplessly as silver prices have dropped 31% since late August, and gold has fallen 16%. To boot, the traders are still being assessed fees for storage of the commodities...

By Jesse

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com



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