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 Gold investment corner v4, Will gold price achieve USD2000 by 2012?

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cherroy
post Nov 15 2011, 09:24 PM

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QUOTE(bigwolf @ Nov 15 2011, 09:11 PM)
1. if you buy paper gold, most probably you already decided its for speculating and not for delivery. had you wanted physical in the first place, you'd buy physical n not paper

2. not sure abt other banks but i asked uob before and they advised if i want to take physical, i need to top up the price difference (1gm GIA vs. 1gm physical) and also RM150 conversion fees. So better to just liquidate the GIA and then use the cash to buy physical. same price difference but you dont need to pay that RM150 fees.

3. Now my opinion here is that although the bank dont have the physical gold, you can still get back your money. And if the bank dont have physical for sale, you can always run to the nearest poh kong/wah chan/etc with the money and buy biggrin.gif
*
2) I asked before as well, if want physical, need 1kg in paper gold, as they won't "chop" into smaller like 10g or 50g for you. biggrin.gif
Not sure about it, this is what I being told, correct me if I am wrong.

3) Price different or can be more expensive than bank what offering, aka the spread.
cherroy
post Nov 15 2011, 09:58 PM

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QUOTE(bigwolf @ Nov 15 2011, 09:40 PM)
2. wah, 1kg? they didn't tell me that so i don't know ler. but uob only selling 1oz sizes, why would they want 1kg then only convert? weird...  hmm.gif

3. yup price spread is definitely more expensive outside than the bank coz bank is selling the physical gold at close to spot rate. thats why uob always out of stock  laugh.gif

my point is there's not much difference if u buy paper vs. physical gold as you can convert paper gold to physical anytime either via sell-paper-then-buy-physical from the bank or take the money n go to the nearest goldsmith shop
*
2) What I mean is the gold account based one, they have 1kg min based gold account one, whereby spread only Rm1 difference, and I was told this 1kg can convert to physical one, but whether there is admin charges on this, I am not sure.

3) The problem, you can buy paper gold at Rm170 and sell paper gold at Rm168, but you cannot buy at RM170 physical with goldsmith out there. smile.gif


cherroy
post Nov 16 2011, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(bigwolf @ Nov 15 2011, 11:04 PM)
i'm highlighting this for the discussions on pro's & cons of physical vs. paper gold. many believe physical gold offers capital security and is easy to liquidate but i'd say paper gold is just as easy to liquidate and secure:

1. same pricing mechanism. a simple example: if you buy 1gm of physical gold for rm200 and spot price goes up rm10, and you sell for rm210, you untung rm10. with paper gold, if you buy at rm170 and spot price goes up the same rm10, and you sell at rm180, you still untung rm10  nod.gif

ofc, if the day comes when the price of physicals starts to disconnect from spot & paper (no more item 1), then i'll be the first to liquidate my paper gold and buys physical. otherwise rugi oh if later 1gm of paper gold says rm170 but 1gm of physical gold sells for rm400  nod.gif
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1. Wrong concept. smile.gif
Physical gold you buy at Rm200, even the spot price up Rm10, let say RM170 to RM180, you may only can sell back at RM180, not RM210.
Who is the person to buy at RM210 from you?
Unless you become the goldsmith to sell at retail price. But this is like doing business trading already, not investment, or sell back.

The real worth of gold is based on spot price, nobody want to buy above the spot price.

Physical price is always based on spot price or paper price, there won't be disconnection issue.
As if there is, many will take advantage of the spread and correct the market back.
Market is always efficient, you let people to have change to do arbitrage, the price correction come it to reconnect back.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 16 2011, 11:39 AM
cherroy
post Nov 17 2011, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Nov 17 2011, 08:40 AM)
paper gold is better and more efficient.
1. if you intend to trade, meaning to said, you will enter and exit the market (buy low, sell high) at various time (3-6 mths or less in between buy and sell).
2. you intend to have fiat money at the end of the day.
all these are true so long that COMEX gold did not default.

Physical gold is better if you intend to keep for long2 time (> 2 yrs) and other than thief or lost due to misplacement there is no other risk.
*
This risk (bolded) is quite big actually, 100% loss. tongue.gif

Another risk of physical gold is the purity of the gold.
Yes, for reputable seller, not much an issue.
But for third party or unknown party, this risk is quite big as well.
cherroy
post Nov 17 2011, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Nov 17 2011, 04:34 PM)
i think we belong to different school of thought.!  biggrin.gif
Option 1: For the reason of fear, trust, convenience, leave the money in financial system : fiat, stock, equity:- it will get indirectly stolen by ruling class over time.

Option 2:- get the money out from ruling class control:- get stored value $ in precious metal and store it aside. I take my chance.

given to choice, I take the bolded risk. Opt 2. for the rest of you, it up to U 2 decide.

purity : buy small size 1 oz or less. Pay the premium, don;t be greed.
*
Equity make a lot people become rich, not stolen, unless one owns rubbish stock then different story.

We live in a fiat system, even gold pricing itself is under fiat system. tongue.gif
Gold has no value at all, the value exist is because of fiat system aka what we seen USD1750 per ounce is valued under fiat money system.

But I trust the financial system more than security of the physical gold in term of theft.
Because if financial system freeze or in trouble, everyone fight hard and find solution to fix the system, just like what happened during 2008 crisis.
But if your gold being stolen, nobody care.

I respect you view and preference, there is no such thing right or wrong in this manner, as we belong to different school of taught. smile.gif


cherroy
post Nov 18 2011, 12:40 AM

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QUOTE(potenza10 @ Nov 17 2011, 10:40 PM)
Gold is tougher than money.thats it.
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Real 99.99% gold is actually very soft only. biggrin.gif

QUOTE(azizulego @ Nov 17 2011, 11:44 PM)
I'm here just to share my view:-

If you read book "Crash Proof" by Peter Sciff , you will understand that the way they fix the system in 2008 is by printing more money - devalue fiat currency. (Which is clearly legally stealing wealth of others). Basically our money / purchasing power got stolen. And nobody cares. but I care.

That is why having physical is important. If you're afraid that you lost your gold, then think of how to reduce the risk.

True story. I got reletives that has gold from great grandma which is more than 80++ years... and those central bankers can't steal the buying power... 

Cheers.
*
Having physical and paper is the same. Both price also go up.
In fact, physical pricing is following the paper one.
The different between paper vs physical is always whether you trust the banker or not only.

The buying power has been stolen without your notice only.
Gold doesn't necessary hedge you 100% on inflation when there is money printing going on.
In fact, gold has not peak at inflation adjusted pricing even it reached USD1900.
It still fail to hedge your inflation adjusted valuation.

2kg of gold can buy you a terrace house during 1980, but you need at least 3kg to buy the same terrace house now.
Buying power has been stolen even owning the gold.


Added on November 18, 2011, 12:46 amPrime location property is "harder" than gold. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 18 2011, 12:46 AM
cherroy
post Nov 18 2011, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(kakiayam @ Nov 18 2011, 10:17 AM)
if cherroy using overvalue housing price to compare with something undervalue, yes of course 2kg of gold nowadays cant buy a house. But overvalue property will get back to its own value once the market crash. If today US dollar back to gold standard, i believe 2kg is enough to get a house.
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Over valued, undervalued, I don't know.
But I just using my old house, and surrounding house and KL terrace house as benchmark.

I don't know how to value.
I only know last time, a terrace house can be bought at 50-100k during 1980, and gold price was USD 300-500.
Now a terrace house need at least 700k-1mil and gold price is USD 1750.

I don't know where to get a terrace house in urban area like Penang/KL with 2kg gold?

I only know last time, a bowl of mee cost me Rm0.20, when I was kid, when gold was USD300
Now, a bowl of mee, cost Rm4-5, and gold price is USD 1750.

I don't know how to calculate, I just use simple mechanism, especially a bowl of mee which is most important for me, as fill the stomach is the most important "hedge inflation" benchmark. tongue.gif
cherroy
post Nov 18 2011, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(ooorait @ Nov 18 2011, 11:16 AM)
if usd strengthen and gold drop... how will it effecting our gold price?
*
See which one has the greater move.
After all price of gold here = spot price x USD/RM exchange rate.
cherroy
post Nov 18 2011, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(kakiayam @ Nov 18 2011, 12:30 PM)
there's alot reason for the gold price up n down. You dont need to worry so much if you holding the real gold on your hand, unless you holding a gold saving bank book with numbers inside smile.gif
*
Same one lah.
Paper gold or physical gold, if spot gold price goes down, both value goes down.
But it doesn't matter if you are not going to sell it or intend to hold it.

Lose/gain doesn't materialise until one day you sell it.

Even you hold paper gold, you hold x g or x kg, it is the same with holding physical gold.
cherroy
post Nov 18 2011, 03:43 PM

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QUOTE(kakiayam @ Nov 18 2011, 03:23 PM)
its hard for me to explain, you can buy bank book gold to earn money and thats your reason why u want to buy gold. For me, my view is gold and silver will be the currency in the future, but not really bringing gold and silver go shopping of course. I mean i predict that USD will collapse in the future, so do our currency will collapse too because most of the currencies backed by USD. When the time come, no matter how many thousand paper currency you have in bank, you cant buy anything because no people want to accept it. If you want know more about gold or silver, there is few videos you can find in youtube. Let me show you the american dream



Added on November 18, 2011, 3:28 pm

you are correct from the above theory. What if bank facing bankruptcy? What is bank suddenly change their terms and cant withdraw physical gold? Bank has the rights to change anything without further notice. So im telling him what his purpose to buy gold. If he wants to generate some 'cash' then buy the paper gold, if he buy gold because he has the same thinking as me, then get the physical gold. No matter how, please do not borrow money to play with gold/silver, there is only 2 ending, either stay in heaven or go to hell.
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The theory is flawed.
There is impossible to have 2 currency at pair to collapse together.
If USD collapse, and RM also collapse, exchange rate will remain the same at 3.15. whistling.gif
Also, no currency is backed by USD, irrelevant.

If we do reach that stage, all paper money cannot be used, you may worry more about war, aka the society become chaotic, and your gold in your house may be robbed or even confiscated already.
When you need gold to buy foods, you better worry about your life and your family safety, not gold anymore. smile.gif

If buy gold because of worry about currency become devalued due to inflation due to massive money printing, then yes, it is logical.

But to say USD collapse and RM collapse and so does the rest of currency also collapse, every paper money cannot be used this is flaw already.

Currency exchange work in pair one.
If USD does collapse, it just means at least one currency is appreciating, just like Yen recently.

Yes, if you view bank will bankrupt, please buy as much as physical gold you can, as well as borrow as much as you can to buy gold.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 18 2011, 03:46 PM
cherroy
post Nov 18 2011, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(kakiayam @ Nov 18 2011, 04:30 PM)
How many countries are borrowing money to the US? When the USD collapse im pretty sure that the other countries unable to get back their money. Which country borrow the most to the US? Where did malaysian bank invest to? Im not talking about foreign exchange and of course i know foreign exchange works in pair.

Why did the US hold the physical gold instead of paper gold? They could save alot if they hold the paper gold and not building such a big vault, they could sell off all their gold to pay off some of their debts and purchase it back in the paper gold, why they didnt do it? Why recently many countries start to store physical gold? Why not diamond, diamond is more expensive than gold. Why not platinum??
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LOL, USD collapse cannot get back their money?
Who said this? laugh.gif
USD collapse, it is even cheaper for US to repay back to the lender.
It is lender hurt the most, not US.

Malaysia bank invested in loan mostly, especially housing loan, corporate loan to ordinary people and company locally.
So what it has to do with gold discussion here?

LOL, who want to have paper gold?
Paper gold is only for ordinary person or anchovies or small fly like me.
Because for small fly like me, storing physical risk is high.
If situation turn ugly aka when you need gold to buy food time, I am scare of my life and my family already, I don't care about gold anymore.
Only certain high ranking people care about gold.

Central banks do not need to invest in paper gold, they can print the money if they wish do.
Paper gold is just for investment purpose just like invest in equity, properties etc.

Countries store gold because there are simply too much money already, nowhere to store the money received (USD), so store gold loh. biggrin.gif
Treasuries return is pathetic and want to spread the risk of USD devaluation.

Gold is tradable in futures market, can easy get the liquidity needed.
Diamond is not.

cherroy
post Nov 23 2011, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(ccc8910 @ Nov 23 2011, 04:07 PM)
guys i m new in this gold investment...need to ask something..

when i check the "gold live" link in the first page, it stated RM208 for 999 gold...how come can get RM177 @ UOB...izit the same range?
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Probably 208 is the retail pricing.

Gold never reach Rm208 before, if not mistaken, it never cross the Rm200 mark.
RM17x is the spot price, the real worth/value of gold.
cherroy
post Nov 23 2011, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(ccc8910 @ Nov 23 2011, 04:36 PM)
ic..i never know can purchase at discounted price..thx for the info..

i been asking this as i was approached by my friends husband which is doing gold investment, he explain the plan to me:
i) buy 100g of 999 gold with current market price RM20,800 (RM208 x 100)
ii) upon purchased, he will hand me the physical gold which i can verified at goldsmith shop for purity
iii) after 3 months, he will buy back the gold with profit margin of 7% (RM1456)

that's y i m still considering if i wanna buy from his plan or direct from bank....i did heard alot of scams about gold coins before...sorry if this is not the right thread to ask this  blush.gif  anyone can shed a light  smile.gif
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It is not "discount" price. It is the real worth price of gold

Rm208 is the retail price is already taking into account or profit margin.
Instead of saying Rm17x is discount price, you can view Rm208 is gold real worth + profit margin/for retailers.

Gold doesn't yield any interest nor can grow, where he find the money to pay you the 7%? rolleyes.gif

cherroy
post Nov 23 2011, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(ccc8910 @ Nov 23 2011, 04:51 PM)
actually thats what i been wondering as well...i do google and found out that there is a company by the name of Genneva which offer similiar plan....FYI this company is :

CSG Fine Metal (http://www.csgfm.com.my/home.asp )
So-called sub-company of Caesar Gold (http://caesargold.com.my/)

i m thinking if the physical gold given to me is genuine, i still can keep it for future trade if the market grows (if the company run-away)...at the end of the day, is still risk.... blink.gif
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Do you know how to verify it is the genuinelity?
So are they selling genuine 999 gold to you at Rm17x/g? rolleyes.gif

cherroy
post Nov 23 2011, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(ccc8910 @ Nov 23 2011, 05:21 PM)
they r selling at RCP RM208/g...i just finished reading another topic of discussion about Genneva which offer the similiar scheme....too much doubts and risks...hence i decided to pull off and start doing my survey to buying gold from banks, even maybe with lower return but with lower risks as well...better safe than sorry  smile.gif

thx guys for all the useful reply  rclxms.gif
*
Rm208 - 7% still Rm19x.
Still higher than RM17x. whistling.gif

Lower return with bank?
If gold price surge Rm10, both paper, or physical gold sold by bank also up Rm10.
What is the different? No
How come you said it is lower return?

You get higher return because of lower spread in the first place.
cherroy
post Nov 23 2011, 06:27 PM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Nov 23 2011, 06:04 PM)
stock people will alway buy paper. They will treat paper as good as  gold. at the end of the day they will cash out.
no point talking them out for physical.
*
Then you need to see why want to buy gold in the first place.
Majority people want to buy gold so that they can gain money, want to have some inflation hedge etc.

All are about to gain money, so to gain money, the one has lower spread, lower risk is the one preferred.

Unless one really like the gold, want to see the yellow shining metal, want to own and hold the yellow metal, then yes, go for physical.

So you want to buy at Rm208 which the real value is RM17x (buyback), in the process to gain money?

Physical price is based on paper price, this is a fact.
cherroy
post Nov 25 2011, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(GoldChan @ Nov 25 2011, 10:39 AM)
everything you said is true
until
1. COMEX default.
2. Paper gold fraud.
3. Hyper inflation comes to picture like prior to WW2 in Germany.

If these 3 item did not come true or one cash out b4 it come true then paper gold is save lah.

Those who invest in physical gold they treat it as insurance as they believe that one of these will come true and they don;t want to get
stuck with paper gold which not convertable to physical. by the time they cash up, price of physical will bom bom up like no body business.
*
Yes, I fully aware the difference between physical and paper. smile.gif

Because my personal view, if that does happen, small fry like me, will be worry about my life, and whether there is foods around for me to eat, and even I have physical in my hand, I fear, may be robbed, gold being stolen, society is chaotic situation already.
Whether gold bom bom up, doesn't matter for me already, because financial system shut down, bank shut down, society is chaotic, business shut down, life and security already in doubt, small fry like me still care about money?

I am an just a small fry, I cannot like others can escape and bring KGs of gold to run away. smile.gif


Added on November 25, 2011, 11:35 am1. Unlikely, but if Comex default, it doesn't mean paper gold default, as paper gold is you with the bank.
2. Yes, it can happen if bank goes under, but chance is slim, most gov more willing to print money to bail out the bank, instead let it fails.
As the consequence of letting bank fail is too big to handle for gov.
3. Hyperinflation, if paper gold is not being defaulted, you still earn from paper gold.

Paper gold is with bank.
If one doesn't trust paper gold, one shouldn't trust the bank, so it is same with FD, saving put in the bank. Although FD/saving is guaranteed under PIDM while paper gold doesn't, bank run based on trust, so bank will not try to default the paper gold as same as FD/saving.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 25 2011, 11:36 AM
cherroy
post Nov 28 2011, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Nov 28 2011, 09:58 AM)
typically people buy gold as a safe heaven investment. when everything else is failing in the financial system, gold will be the ideal choice for people to park their money, it's safe. due to the fact that gold has been used as the backbone of monetary system for the past several thousand of years, the chances for gold to free fall like how share market did is very little.

if you look at the chart, history will tell u that gold has been rising slowly, steadily and consistently. it's one of the safest way to invest your currency (RM / USD/ etc) into real money that has real value. however due to recent years of economy stimulating packages from the west, gold has been rising rapidly and people would like to ride on the trend to reap some quick profit - as gold is no longer slow and steady but fast and steady.

right now, thanks to the west who has been printing money like crazy, the public uses gold and silver (real money) as a medium to store one's wealth. if one keeps his wealth in cash, the cash would very quickly drop in value. this is known as inflation. the fact is goods didn't rise in price (measure against real money), it's the paper money (cash / currency / RM / USD) has shrink in value, therefore we need more of paper currency to purchase the same amount of goods. if we use gold and silver (value) to measure against the goods, the price almost never change. 1 oz of gold (or silver) will still buy you the same amount of goods today and 1000 years ago.

gold has been used as the backbone of monetary system but it is very hard to use gold to trade in daily life. silver will be another form of real money that can be used.

i have hosted some really good video explaining the concept of gold, silver and paper currency by Mike Maloney, feel free to check them out at:
Videos - Silver in Malaysia
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Yes & No.

Gold has its dark day as well. Gold never rise steadily period from about 1980 to 2002. It stagnant throughout 20+ years. While others investment asset give more than 200-300% (even for pathetic FD) or even more for properties, stocks etc.

Gold is not a backbone of monetory system.
Printed money is not backed by gold. Although more gold in the coffer can instill confidence on your money. But printed money is not backed by gold.
Also there is not enough gold to back all the money out there.
Gold exist or not, doesn't alter the current financial system.
Gold is just another investment class out there in the financial system.

Use gold to measure against goods, price never change?
I don't know the answer, but I only know,
1980 1ounce of gold cost USD 300, while a bowl of hawker mee, cost RM0.20
2011 1ounce of gold cost USD 1700, while a bowl of hawker mee, cost Rm4-5.

So price got chance or not? whistling.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 28 2011, 10:42 AM
cherroy
post Nov 28 2011, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(basSist @ Nov 28 2011, 11:02 AM)
Gold is to preserve your wealth not for investment at first.  doh.gif
*
I am responding to the statement below. smile.gif

I feel sad because gold cannot preserve a bowl of mee for me. cry.gif
aka 1oz of gold can buy me the same goods forever?
It cannot buy me the same bowl of mee, after 20 years.

Last time 1980, need 0.0002oz of gold can buy me a bowl of hawker mee to fill the stomach fully.
Now need 0.0008oz of gold only can buy the same bowl

Where is the preservation of wealth? cry.gif

QUOTE
1980 1ounce of gold cost USD 300, while a bowl of hawker mee, cost RM0.20
2011 1ounce of gold cost USD 1700, while a bowl of hawker mee, cost Rm4-5.


QUOTE(property101 @ Nov 28 2011, 09:58 AM)
if we use gold and silver (value) to measure against the goods, the price almost never change. 1 oz of gold (or silver) will still buy you the same amount of goods today and 1000 years ago.
*
cherroy
post Nov 29 2011, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 29 2011, 02:40 PM)
Are you refering to the the 1980 peak?

Are you saying now is equivalent to that peak?

If not, then its a flawed comparion.
*
I don't know what is peak or bottom. I never know, I am not a good predictor.
I don't know how gold price will be in the future, can be USD 5000, can be USD2000, I am not good in predict those.

But during late 70's, 1980 or early 80's, people also said the same thing, invest gold will protect your money value.

So there were people follow what being said (whether it was me or not, never mind, as this is not the point), now they feel being cheated by this statement for 20+ years or even after 20+ years until now.
Because the last time 0.0002 oz that can buy, now need 0.0008 oz already, cry.gif where is the value protection or preservation.

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