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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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kochin
post Apr 7 2011, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE(soongkm @ Apr 7 2011, 05:40 PM)
Hey, some of these people are not buying is not because they can't afford it.  It's just that they see the truth in this "property illusion".  Suddenly in just one year, that is 2010, suddenly property goes up so much.  Must be manipulation!  These people who see this are smart.  Sometimes is not about affordability.  For example, would you pay RM100 for one durian?  Can you afford it?  Well, it is expensive but i am sure many people can afford it.  But would you buy it?  Not really, unless you die die also must eat durian or you think durian will cost RM110 tomorrow.

So please, not all people don't buy now is not because they can't afford.
good example.
but just to add on there are exceptions. i remember when chinese tea was 10 cents per glass. then 20 cents, then 30 cents. when it cost 50 cents per glass, i remember myself boycotting a drink during meals for the longest of time. eventually, not jus myself but everybody starts drinking chinese tea as it is still one of the cheapest drink during meals.
how much is a cup of chinese tea now and what will be a glass costs in the future? i dunno but i'm hoping the price will come down by heart, but my brain is telling me 'dream on'.
kh8668
post Apr 7 2011, 07:52 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 7 2011, 07:48 PM)
good example.
but just to add on there are exceptions. i remember when chinese tea was 10 cents per glass. then 20 cents, then 30 cents. when it cost 50 cents per glass, i remember myself boycotting a drink during meals for the longest of time. eventually, not jus myself but everybody starts drinking chinese tea as it is still one of the cheapest drink during meals.
how much is a cup of chinese tea now and what will be a glass costs in the future? i dunno but i'm hoping the price will come down by heart, but my brain is telling me 'dream on'.
*
Hmm...not a good example la....if you do not want to eat durian, you still got plenty of choices e.g manggo/apple/peach/etc to fill your stomach.

if you did not want to buy house/apartment/condo/flat/lcflat because of expensive, then you might need to consider buying sleeping bag/camping shelters to cover your head.

blush.gif
keith_hjinhoh
post Apr 7 2011, 08:01 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 7 2011, 07:47 PM)
One thing we need to rethink.....if property prices heading south, how far it will go from current level? 1km=10%, 2km=20%, and so on so.

For references, from 2008 till 2011 April, property prices in the selected prime location already hit up 30% - 60%.

so are we expecting it will go down to 50% or more? or 5% down from the current level and then shooting up again 10%/20% or more?

kekeke..who got crystal balls?
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A drop 50% is almost impossible, period. Unless our economy is hampered by great depression.

I'd say a gradual drop of 10%-20% from now till end of the year is more realistic.

Those who are hoping for 50% drop, you can continue to dream on. Or Bukit Beruntung perhaps? hmm.gif


Added on April 7, 2011, 8:04 pm
QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 7 2011, 07:52 PM)
Hmm...not a good example la....if you do not want to eat durian, you still got plenty of choices e.g manggo/apple/peach/etc to fill your stomach.

if you did not want to buy house/apartment/condo/flat/lcflat because of expensive, then you might need to consider buying sleeping bag/camping shelters to cover your head.

blush.gif
*
You don't need to buy. You can always rent it icon_rolleyes.gif

When property is booming, it's always cheaper to rent instead of buy icon_idea.gif icon_idea.gif

This post has been edited by keith_hjinhoh: Apr 7 2011, 08:04 PM
kh8668
post Apr 7 2011, 08:51 PM

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Yeah
Actually there are still a lot affordable housing. Don't be so picky then sure get one

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 7 2011, 08:58 PM
property101
post Apr 7 2011, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 7 2011, 08:51 PM)
Yeah
Actually there are still a lot affordable housing. Don't be so picky then sure get one
*
exactly
if the buyer's requirement are:
- MUST be DSL,
- MUST be located in prime location
- MUST be 20 min from KL city
- MUST be freehold
- MUST be NEW
- and the MUST list continues...

the buyer can always continue to pray and wait for property price to drop, while there are people who are not so picky already buying, flipping, receiving rental income
keith_hjinhoh
post Apr 7 2011, 11:14 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 7 2011, 10:35 PM)
exactly
if the buyer's requirement are:
- MUST be DSL,
- MUST be located in prime location
- MUST be 20 min from KL city
- MUST be freehold
- MUST be NEW
- and the MUST list continues...

the buyer can always continue to pray and wait for property price to drop, while there are people who are not so picky already buying, flipping, receiving rental income
*
Haha... No wonder the price of the property is up, up and up...

I wonder what would happened when the game is over..

Property broker and banker has been taking a lot of advantage from the bubble currently.. brows.gif brows.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 8 2011, 12:00 AM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 7 2011, 08:01 PM)
A drop 50% is almost impossible, period. Unless our economy is hampered by great depression.

Added on April 7, 2011, 8:04 pm
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Ya agree, imagine in what circumstances that property price drop more than 50%? War, Tsunami, earthquake, instability of politics..
Be more realistic, if one intend to buy a house for own stay, pls reconsider all yr criteria again, I found almost more than 50% of the home buyers couldn't reach their dream of owning theirs' "dream house",

All down grade, with the same budget in 2010 as compare to 2008-2009,
Bungalow (2008) - Semi-D (2011)
Semi-D (2008) - Superlink Link house corner (2011)
Superlink Link house corner (2008) - Link house end lot + 10ft land (2011)
Double storey (2008) - 1 1/2 storey (2011)
Link house (2008) - Condo / Servive apt (2011)
Condo / Servive apt - Prime area (2008) - Condo / Servive apt - non Prime area (2011)
Normal condo (2008) - Medium cost apt (2011)
Medium cost (2008) - Renting nice condo in MK (not a bad choice may be) biggrin.gif

Everybody facing the same scenario, you are not alone smile.gif
soongkm
post Apr 8 2011, 05:38 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 7 2011, 06:32 PM)
buy good location prop is like buy good bluechip stocks, price will only up (due to inflation). good location mean within KL centre, good blue chip mean those companies with ability to make profits eg maxis, petronas, ytl, shangrila, digi, nestle etc. dont go buy ulu ulu and far far prop, similarly dun buy risky stocks.
in fact genting, carlsberg, BAT (tobacco), GAB (guinness beer) is also very good stock but Malaysia not sure..

i recalled a shenzhen person form a group want to boycott buy prop some 10 years ago. til now shenzhen prop is still up up and i think this guy hv commited suicide.  so many ppl blamed him and he is broke.

i lived in many oversea big cities b4 (long stay) eg Singapore, HK, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and i always hear the same boycott, but til date i havent see prices drop in those big cities. I mean central not ulu ulu Shanghai, Beijing.
KL is still developing and will become same with those big cities one day.
if u buy within perimeter 30km from KLCC i think shud be safe. (especially in long term)

buy stock/prop 10, 20, 30 years ago, or buy now or buy 10, 20, 30 years later - u go figure. in short, if u got $, pls invest (stock or prop).
*
When the people here are saying "price will drop" means price will be adjusted from the present, all time high. Not crash. But in the long run say 10 15 years from now, it will still trend upwards.

Even blue chip stocks, gold, oil or even property prices in big international cities when they reached all time high, the "price will drop" means price will be adjusted. Not crash. But on the long run, it will of course always trend upwards.


Added on April 8, 2011, 5:44 am
QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 7 2011, 07:44 PM)
pretty strong words and bold statements. i would very much like to revisit your statement by end of this year.
would appreciate if others remind me by say mid of december 2011.
*
Well, that's my prediction and i am sticking with it. ALot of developers are putting off their planned lauching. But in the news they keep on saying that they are confident that the market is still strong. What do you expect them to say, their bread and butter is in this industry. Just like Bee End will always say foreign investors are as ever, very confident in the country's political situation and policy.

If they are so confident, why YNH is postponing the Kiara 163 project so many times??? If they believe their own words that market sentiment is very strong, why don't they fast fast launch it to "enjoy" the strong market sentiment. Go and check, how many times Kiara 163 has been postponed and until now, that piece of land is still hoarding there.

This post has been edited by soongkm: Apr 8 2011, 05:44 AM
cybermaster98
post Apr 8 2011, 08:13 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Apr 7 2011, 10:35 PM)
exactly
if the buyer's requirement are:
- MUST be DSL,
- MUST be located in prime location
- MUST be 20 min from KL city
- MUST be freehold
- MUST be NEW
- and the MUST list continues...

the buyer can always continue to pray and wait for property price to drop, while there are people who are not so picky already buying, flipping, receiving rental income
*
I think most ppl here are talking bout capital appreciation not rental income. Rental income is always subjective. But yes if i were to buy a property now (even if its more expensive) and i have guaranteed tenancy then surely ill go for it. Even now, im looking at areas like Damansara Perdana for rental income as well.

But on the basis of capital appreciation, established & mature areas like TTDI, Bandar Utama, Bangsar, etc will always hold their prices.
keith_hjinhoh
post Apr 8 2011, 09:26 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 8 2011, 08:13 AM)
But on the basis of capital appreciation, established & mature areas like TTDI, Bandar Utama, Bangsar, etc will always hold their prices.
*
This statement is flaw. They maybe able hold their price (capital guaranteed) but not capital appreciate tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Apr 8 2011, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 8 2011, 08:13 AM)
But on the basis of capital appreciation, established & mature areas like TTDI, Bandar Utama, Bangsar, etc will always hold their prices.
*
QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 8 2011, 09:26 AM)
This statement is flaw. They maybe able hold their price (capital guaranteed) but not capital appreciate tongue.gif
*
those 3 places plus sri hartamas are always used to justify "prime areas will always go up".
there is no doubt these old matured established houses will hold their value.
but i doubt a typical investor will go buy an old house there to goreng. biggrin.gif
not many available for sale, anyway.
Drian
post Apr 8 2011, 11:47 AM

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I'm predicting stagnant or very little growth. I doubt it will drop.
Overall no drop unless those oversupply kind of lcoations.

This post has been edited by Drian: Apr 8 2011, 11:48 AM
chubbyken
post Apr 8 2011, 01:37 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ Apr 8 2011, 11:47 AM)
I'm predicting stagnant or very little growth.  I doubt it will drop.
Overall no drop unless those oversupply kind of lcoations.
*
if inflation and hopefully salary continue to go up
property stagnant is kind of equivalent to drop...
cybermaster98
post Apr 8 2011, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Apr 8 2011, 09:26 AM)
This statement is flaw. They maybe able hold their price (capital guaranteed) but not capital appreciate tongue.gif
*
Do you understand the meaning of 'hold their prices"?

Have u observed the value of property prices in TTDI, Bangsar and Bandar Utama for the past 5 years? Are u telling me the prices ure seeing now is the same as the prices 5 years ago? If this is what ure saying then you obviously have no idea about the property market in these areas.

For you info, im a TTDI resident. I bought a condo in 2009 for 471K and its current price is approx 650K. This is based on values of transacted units. Right now the going price for a double storey corner lot with land is approx RM 1 mil in TTDI. Was this the price in 2006?

So please dont tell me that prices here have not appreciated. If ure not sure then call up and ask property agents who specialise in these areas before you say my statement is flawed.

Read the following article which came out in 2008:

Investing for the long term

Remember the property boom days before the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis crippled the Malaysian property industry?

In 1993, quantity surveyor Bruce went shopping for a house and paid RM238,000 for a nicely renovated 2-storey intermediate link house in the Aminuddin area in Kuala Lumpur's Taman Tun Dr Ismail.

"There was another unit two doors away, priced at a cheaper RM220,000 but my family and I hated the way it was renovated. So, we went for the more expensive buy," says Bruce.

Buying the TTDI house was not an easy decision to make for Bruce as he had to first sell at a loss his existing house in Kepong's Taman Bukit Maluri, bought during the property market's peak before it crashed in the mid-1980s recession.

See the following link for an analysis of prices in some prime areas:
http://www.metrohomes.com/appmain/hminfo/i...=NOT/2008/00033


A painful decision then but now, with the benefit of hindsight, it turned out to be a brilliant move. "The capital appreciation of the Kepong house is nowhere near that enjoyed by the TTDI property," says Bruce, who sold the TTDI link house in 1997 for a tidy profit and upgraded to a corner unit down the same road. The current asking prices for 2-storey link houses in the Aminuddin/Burhanuddin areas range from RM590,000 to RM630,000.


Location and timing

Location is an all-important factor in property investment, as with timing, as a house price sampling by Metro Homes for the period between 1993 and May this year would attest to.

An analysis of the survey of selected popular addresses in the Kuala Luumpur-Petaling jaya areas points to the fact that while values of property in preferred locations do succumb to a downturn, they also tend to be more resilient. And once the market improves, these areas not only recover lost ground but also scale new heights.

The sampling shows that the cheapest 2-storey link house in the Aminuddin/Burhanuddin area in TTDI was sold for RM390,000 in 1997. Then the Asian financial crisis hit and values dropped 15% to RM330,000 in 1998 before slipping further to RM320,000 in 1999.

But those who had invested in the property then would be laughing all the way to the bank now. As at May this year, the cheapest 2-storey TTDI house in the Aminuddin/Burhanuddin area changed hands at RM490,000, with the most expensive unit fetching a significantly higher RM600,000.

The value uptrend for TTDI semi-detached and detached houses is more pronounced - those who had invested in these homes during the last downturn would probably have doubled their investment today.

In 1993, the cheapest semidee in the Jalan Zaaba/Leong Yew Koh area in TTDI went for RM280,000. Prices climbed steadily and by 1998, buyers paid anything from RM720,000 to RM950,000 for a unit, down from a high of RM1.18 million the year before. As at May this year, buyers paid RM1.55 million to RM1.85 million, with current asking prices ranging from RM1.35 million to RM1.8 million.

If you had bought a TTDI bungalow back in 1993, your investment would have quadrupled. A unit on Jalan Athinahapan/Taman Zaaba cost as little as RM530,000 to RM620,000 in 1993 but the same type of house was sold for a whopping RM1.4 million to RM1.6 million five years later. In 1999, prices slipped to RM1 million to RM1.5 million, but as at May this year, values had soared to RM2 million to RM2.8 million. Current asking prices range from RM2.2 million to RM2.9 million.

Metro Homes' director See Kok Loong attributes the huge capital appreciation in the semidees and detached homes to extensive renovations done to them over the years. In contrast, there's only so much an owner of an intermediate link home can do to expand or improve it.

As the sampling shows, the uptrend in price values in TTDI is not unique to this township, which is located across the road from the bustling suburban residential and commercial hubs of Bandar Utama and Mutiara Damansara.

Other popular addresses surveyed show the prices of houses in good locations experienced a downturn but then rebounded to reach new highs (see table below).
Overall, the property market enjoyed a boom before the Asian financial crisis. Prices stabilised in 1999, which, believes See, had to do with the move by national asset management company (Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Bhd) to buy up the banks' non-performing loans.

"In 2001, we saw prices rising again. In 2003, prices regained their 1997 peak levels and went beyond. In 2007, they recorded a big jump and this had to do with the real property gains tax waiver," he tells City & Country.


Prices and appreciation rates

Without doubt, prices vary not only from township to township but also from location to location within a township. For instance, the prices of 2-storey link houses in the Aminuddin/Burhanuddin area in TTDI are at a discount to the newer phases of Athinappan and Sulaiman. Likewise in the popular Bangsar enclave, the Terasek sections command a higher pre-mium than the older houses in the township.

The rate of capital appreciation differs too from township to township. According to the sampling, in Kuala Lumpur's Taman OUG, a 2-storey link home bought for RM270,000 or so in 1997 would have only fetched RM320,000, or about 18% more, as at May this year. This is a far cry from, say, Jalan Terasek in Bangsar Baru, where values almost doubled in the same period.

"In Taman OUG, the properties are old and require extensive renovations. There is also less new development in the area to raise the benchmark price," explains See.

So, is it time to buy?

There is no crystal ball but this is See's reading: If the economy were to slide, prices will dip 5% to 10%. But prices will recover quickly in mature areas such as Bandar Utama, which are supported by demand and where the basic infrastructure is already in place.

However, with lower interest rates, prices are unlikely to come down as there will be more demand, which, in turn, will push prices up, says See.

His advice: Buy if you are a long-term investor and if you see something you like. While prices may or may not dip in the near term, you may not be able to buy a home of your choice then. In the long run, prices today will ultimately be cheaper than in the future.


Still buying

While the property markets in several countries have in recent months nosedived and transaction volumes have shrunk conspicuously locally, Lee, a professional in his mid-30s, is unperturbed.

Now staying with his parents in Petaling Jaya's mature SS3 area, Lee started shopping for a home some six months ago, before the US subprime mortgage crisis exploded into a global credit meltdown. But he has not let up on his house hunting. "Now is a good time to buy…" says the enthusiastic investor, who is getting a tad disappointed because prices of properties in good locations with good accessibility seem to be holding up.

"I like SS17 in Subang Jaya for its convenience and accessibility, but the 2-storey link homes there are still going for between RM310,000 and RM350,000…" says Lee, who is familiar with SS17 because he went to Inti College which is located there.
While prospective investors like Lee are hopeful that prices will drop, sellers are not budging... for now.

http://www.metrohomes.com/appmain/hminfo/i...=NOT/2008/00033


This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Apr 8 2011, 02:02 PM
ThanatosSwiftfire
post Apr 8 2011, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 8 2011, 01:51 PM)

TLDR

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it took the 97 crisis to bring prices down by 15%. What makes you think it'll go down further?
cybermaster98
post Apr 8 2011, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(ThanatosSwiftfire @ Apr 8 2011, 03:44 PM)
it took the 97 crisis to bring prices down by 15%. What makes you think it'll go down further?
*
The number of developments and property launches now are much much more compared to 97. Anyway, i expect drop in prices mostly for condo's in non prime areas. Landed properties should remain good. But then again its anybody's guess as to what may happen in the future.
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post Apr 8 2011, 03:54 PM

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how come everything not finalized yet...but the job already start.... hmm.gif

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...-finalised-yet/


Oil price oledi reach US$111......I think GE around the corner.....please prepare ourselves for the coming soon inflation.....

Buy property now??? Noway... sad.gif


HK Lee Ka shing come in to sapu ....commercial property ...... do you thing property will drop??? hmm.gif hmm.gif hmm.gif

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

This post has been edited by 22222222: Apr 8 2011, 06:25 PM
kh8668
post Apr 8 2011, 08:38 PM

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yeah...will drop will drop...maybe 5% - 10%? and up 10% to 30% lagi...before drop 5%..kekekeke
soongkm
post Apr 8 2011, 10:44 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ Apr 8 2011, 03:54 PM)
how come everything not finalized yet...but the job already start.... hmm.gif

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...-finalised-yet/
Oil price oledi reach US$111......I think GE around the corner.....please prepare ourselves for the coming soon inflation.....

Buy property now??? Noway... sad.gif
HK Lee Ka shing come in to sapu ....commercial property ...... do you thing property will drop???  hmm.gif  hmm.gif  hmm.gif

http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html
*
Superman Lee analogy is very simple: RM500 million for 3 shopping centre. of course sapu la. For that price of RM500 million, can buy how many units of priime location condo unit only. Cannot use Superman barometer to judge our day to day RE needs.

kh8668
post Apr 8 2011, 10:49 PM

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tomorrow the edge property forum 2011 topics:

Will housing property prices drop soon?
MRT: Real estate hotspots
Talking shops: Investing in shop units

hehehe....go to listen whether housing property prices frop soon or not?

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