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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues
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kh8668
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 Apr 7 2011, 12:15 AM
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QUOTE(ThanatosSwiftfire @ Apr 6 2011, 11:29 PM) You are correct in terms of tax computation, but with each subsequent buyer you'll be running up against the law of diminishing return, because the next buyer has to keep in mind 2 things (a) lower LTV (thus his ROI is lower), and (b) a 30% RPGT on his earnings, so it affects whether it's still worth it to buy. The population of buyers out there is a bell curve, and by having RPGT and lower LTV, it shifts the breakeven line higher, thus reducing demand. hopefully reducing the buying/speculation demand....however the first time buyers and upgraders are still there planning for their home. As long as LTV 90% for first/2nd purchase still applicable then should be okay for the market. and one thing, I personally do not expect property price will come down based on historically data of Malaysia property price, also due to inflation. |
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prody
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Apr 7 2011, 10:09 AM
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Looks like loan applications have peaked already even though there have been many launches lately.
This is an indicator that it is more difficult now to sell any unit then a few months back.
Once demand weakens it is quite clear what will happen to prices.
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cybermaster98
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Apr 7 2011, 10:59 AM
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ok
This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Apr 7 2011, 11:30 AM
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belialjo
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Apr 7 2011, 11:20 AM
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New Member
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i believe in order for price drop of 30-50% to happen, there would have to be a pretty big crisis like 97, which will result in recession in the country. and recession will impact all across the board, those that cannot afford to buy a home pre-recession, would they be able to during recession? with the risk of job loss during recession so much higher, even if the prices drop by 50%, i believe it would b a much scarier time than now. how would make it any better to buy a home later?
the other scenario to result in a 50% drop in price is a riot after GE, in which everyone stand to lose from it. hmmm....pretty complicated
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keith_hjinhoh
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Apr 7 2011, 11:56 AM
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QUOTE(belialjo @ Apr 7 2011, 11:20 AM) i believe in order for price drop of 30-50% to happen, there would have to be a pretty big crisis like 97, which will result in recession in the country. and recession will impact all across the board, those that cannot afford to buy a home pre-recession, would they be able to during recession? with the risk of job loss during recession so much higher, even if the prices drop by 50%, i believe it would b a much scarier time than now. how would make it any better to buy a home later? the other scenario to result in a 50% drop in price is a riot after GE, in which everyone stand to lose from it. hmmm....pretty complicated Not for those home buyer that has been saving for all these years to own these unit. I'm preety sure there many cash rich buyer out there. |
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lucerne
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Apr 7 2011, 12:38 PM
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about 50% voted prop will increase 10-20% in the next 3 months. 25%voted price stayed, 25% voted decline. http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/component/p...ang-valley.html |
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SUSUFO-ET
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Apr 7 2011, 12:41 PM
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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 7 2011, 12:38 PM) about 50% voted prop will increase 10-20% in the next 3 months. 25%voted price stayed, 25% voted decline. http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/component/p...ang-valley.htmlit really reflex the mkt sentiment now |
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cybermaster98
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Apr 7 2011, 01:49 PM
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QUOTE(lucerne @ Apr 7 2011, 12:38 PM) about 50% voted prop will increase 10-20% in the next 3 months. 25%voted price stayed, 25% voted decline. http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/component/p...ang-valley.htmlWho were the voters? If people from the property industry or developers then of course the answer will be 'price gonna increase'. Typical! |
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keith_hjinhoh
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Apr 7 2011, 01:58 PM
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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 7 2011, 01:49 PM) Who were the voters? If people from the property industry or developers then of course the answer will be 'price gonna increase'. Typical!  Exactly, none of them were house buyer  But these maybe true for proposed MRT area. This post has been edited by keith_hjinhoh: Apr 7 2011, 01:58 PM |
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TSVeda
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Apr 7 2011, 02:04 PM
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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Apr 7 2011, 01:49 PM) Who were the voters? If people from the property industry or developers then of course the answer will be 'price gonna increase'. Typical! The Edge readers tend to be those financially literate and corporate types ...... otherwise why would they read business news?
Added on April 7, 2011, 2:08 pmChecked the prices of properties in my shortlist again ...... since the last check 2 weeks ago, prices have gone up another RM10k-20k ....... This post has been edited by Veda: Apr 7 2011, 02:09 PM |
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lucerne
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Apr 7 2011, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE(prody @ Apr 7 2011, 10:09 AM) Looks like loan applications have peaked already even though there have been many launches lately. This is an indicator that it is more difficult now to sell any unit then a few months back. Once demand weakens it is quite clear what will happen to prices. new launch usually buyer apply only to one bank (free legal fee from developer etc), for subsales most buyer to shop for the best deal, so buyer will submit as many applications as possible. also there are many mortgage consultants around this few years. which give buyer more choices and to submit more applications. lately when i submit loan application to 3 different banks, to my surprise, my CITOS recorded 3 approved loans ..so i think the recent bank negara report is meaningless. the number of loan applications and approvals did not reflect the facts. i remember those old day when i bought a house i do not have many choice for bank loan. but now ONE property can have 3-5 loan applications or approval. |
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edwardsiow
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Apr 7 2011, 02:11 PM
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Getting Started
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When I looking for doors, kitchenware, bathroom etc, I received news that materials increases 15-20% started from April...So....
This post has been edited by edwardsiow: Apr 7 2011, 02:12 PM
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TSVeda
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Apr 7 2011, 02:21 PM
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QUOTE(godutch @ Apr 6 2011, 09:26 AM) Ya, that's why when people said Malaysia is different because we don't hv subprime, i really doubt it. Maybe the reason why these people said we don't hv subprime is just because our banks are less sophisticated and don't hv a system to differentiate what are prime loans and subprime loans. Out banks don't hv a perfect system when come to giving out loans, that's why some people managed to find loopholes (banks just want to hv a nice "loan growth" rate to push share price higher, and more loans means more income to the banks) and overstretched, heard of someone was managed to take many loans (including cd cards, personal loans and housing loans) from different banks and the housing loans were more than 10X his gross salary. and i don't think this is an isolation case. Do we not hv subprime loans???  You misunderstood subprime liao. Investors are usually not subprime borrowers .... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_lendingQUOTE Professor Harvey S. Rosen of Princeton University explained, "The main thing that innovations in the mortgage market have done over the past 30 years is to let in the excluded: the young, the discriminated-against, the people without a lot of money in the bank to use for a down payment. So, those looking for their first home can be subprime borrowers as well. For exp. those who can't come up with the 10% downpayment,....... investors are not the "excluded" |
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lucerne
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Apr 7 2011, 02:28 PM
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QUOTE(edwardsiow @ Apr 7 2011, 02:11 PM) When I looking for doors, kitchenware, bathroom etc, I received news that materials increases 15-20% started from April...So.... yes, i just bought a bed + matress. the factory said price will up 10% after may 1. so i hv no choice to buy it now (deliver in end apr) even my condo is under renovation. salesman (my fren) advised me to keep all beds in one room first. |
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edwardsiow
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Apr 7 2011, 02:34 PM
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Getting Started
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unless there is economic crisis happens in Malaysia, if not, property and materials cost will always move upward.....
Added on April 7, 2011, 2:39 pmThe 20-30 years old houses around me with the price 280-350K selling like hot cakes...
I just put up my old 2x years old house to sale around 300K, immediately at the same day, a lot of people called in to view the house...
Buying the old properties seems like more worth to invest....in my observation...
This post has been edited by edwardsiow: Apr 7 2011, 02:39 PM
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cleo87
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Apr 7 2011, 02:57 PM
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Getting Started
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QUOTE(edwardsiow @ Apr 7 2011, 02:34 PM) unless there is economic crisis happens in Malaysia, if not, property and materials cost will always move upward.....
Added on April 7, 2011, 2:39 pmThe 20-30 years old houses around me with the price 280-350K selling like hot cakes... I just put up my old 2x years old house to sale around 300K, immediately at the same day, a lot of people called in to view the house... Buying the old properties seems like more worth to invest....in my observation... but old house can come with problems... old things need maintenance... plus nowadays people like gated community or service apartments. its the convenience and security |
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wwwcomment
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Apr 7 2011, 02:57 PM
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Getting Started
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QUOTE(Veda @ Apr 7 2011, 02:04 PM) in my shortlist again ...... since the last check 2 weeks ago, prices have gone up another RM10k-20k ....... wah 2 weeks up 20k one year up 500k loh what are you wating for? fast fast grab laa maybe borrow from loan shark also worth it  |
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TSVeda
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Apr 7 2011, 03:01 PM
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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Apr 7 2011, 02:57 PM) wah 2 weeks up 20k one year up 500k loh what are you wating for? fast fast grab laa maybe borrow from loan shark also worth it I'm already vested there  |
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wwwcomment
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Apr 7 2011, 03:05 PM
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Getting Started
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QUOTE(Veda @ Apr 7 2011, 03:01 PM) I'm already vested there good job!  i suggest you invest few more units there befoer it is too late  |
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TSVeda
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Apr 7 2011, 03:14 PM
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If I could get a suitable unit at the right price, why not?  |
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