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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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eXTaTine
post Jun 3 2011, 11:21 AM

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Personally, I think some new launches are simply ridiculous, you're better of buying subsale. For those who need a home, please buy something reasonable with your money, don't buy that 300k+ studio for your home as you can probably buy a proper condo for that money. I hope some developers will launch reasonably priced condos but so far, hardly any seems to be doing so....
CKHong
post Jun 3 2011, 11:29 AM

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QUOTE(eXTaTine @ Jun 3 2011, 11:21 AM)
Personally, I think some new launches are simply ridiculous, you're better of buying subsale. For those who need a home, please buy something reasonable with your money, don't buy that 300k+ studio for your home as you can probably buy a proper condo for that money. I hope some developers will launch reasonably priced condos but so far, hardly any seems to be doing so....
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subsale also ridiculous.. seller jacked up so much.. we don't have that initial money .. bank repayment still can tahan..
but i agree that developer purposely jacked up the price because the subsale price is so high..
TheDoer
post Jun 3 2011, 11:51 AM

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QUOTE(property101 @ Jun 2 2011, 07:34 PM)
i see some people who were bullish about property market have given in and bought one?
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Note that, even though we still beleive the market will drop. We have no choice because we need to live somewhere.

With a little help from FAMA. but when the money runs out. whose gonna hold up the pillars of this inflation?
thk38
post Jun 3 2011, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(eXTaTine @ Jun 2 2011, 05:55 PM)
Market is behaving exactly like in the US or worse! This can only end badly....when you see Da Men selling twice the price of surrounding properties around and snapped up, Sunway Velocity 800-900psft, KD offices 700+psft and sold out, its just going to end badly when they realize no1 will rent the units at the prices they are looking for. We got tonnes of people with no cash but taking huge loans and leveraging themselves up as much as they can. People are taking loans up to 80% of gross income! I am very afraid of what will happen inevitably...after the crash...the market will be dead for the next 5-10 years like in 97.
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Apply car loan also only need 10% down-payment.. Others find it hard to make deadline while others kept taking up debt like there is no tomorrow...


Added on June 3, 2011, 12:33 pm
QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 2 2011, 10:57 PM)
but i think in long term the prop price will climb to a new height again eventually.. this is quite true for developing economy/country..
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US is a developed country, wonder why a very nice home only cost them US100,000 (redefined the word affordability, even-thought the cost of raw material are rising...)

We are all tie in global economic so any happen else where in the world, could happen to us too. Tries to be open minded.

This post has been edited by thk38: Jun 3 2011, 12:33 PM
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 12:38 PM

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r we in an early stage, middle stage or latter stage of bubble? only time will tell. those who bet on it & win will get the rewards. those who sit at sideline will hav to battle with inflation

From 2003 to early 2008, the world stood witness to the most striking commodity price boom of the past century. The price of oil, metals, foodstuffs, grains, and other commodities rose sharply, over a sustained period. Not too differently from earlier commodity booms, this one too was associated with strong global growth, but was exceptional in its duration
http://blog.securities.com/2011/05/current...ture-prospects/

which political party want to risk losing election by increasing Federal Funds Rate, anyone recall 1985 recession?
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/long-term-...-rate-1513.html

What Caused the Great Depression of 1929? thanks to the Fed, there was just not enough money in circulation to get the economy going again. Instead of pumping money into the economy, and increasing the money supply, the Fed allowed the money supply to fall 30%.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/grossdomesti..._Depression.htm

all signs point to higher prices. all those companies will pass the cost over to the consumers. the consumers will jus hav to tighten their belt or form their own co. since we're in an economic cycle, the date to watch is yr 2013 coz the next United States presidential election is to be held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012. also the effect won't be felt immediately, it takes time for horse trading laugh.gif

for bolehland, anyone recall wat happen during previous pm era when he take drastic action to increase petrol price & then the elections came. tis time, wat u guys/ gals think wil happen? repeat the same step or to increase after ge smile.gif




SUSUFO-ET
post Jun 3 2011, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(thk38 @ Jun 3 2011, 12:12 PM)
US is a developed country, wonder why a very nice home only cost them US100,000 (redefined the word affordability, even-thought the cost of raw material are rising...)
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simple, developed country (especially North Ameraica, Europe and Australia) maintain good infras even in rural area....
Look at our kampung infra.. doh.gif

sampool
post Jun 3 2011, 02:54 PM

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wave.gif 2012
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 02:56 PM

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imo 2013 la grumble.gif unless those highly experience peak gloomers can give other reasons
all their previous reasons has expired bruce.gif & price of properties DID NOT DROP
TheDoer
post Jun 3 2011, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jun 3 2011, 02:56 PM)
imo 2013 la  grumble.gif unless those highly experience peak gloomers can give other reasons
all their previous reasons has expired  bruce.gif  & price of properties DID NOT DROP
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Which reasons that we gave that has expired?
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 03:19 PM

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hmm... u can read back the old pages by 'onemorething' & supporters
or which reason has not expired?

QUOTE(TheDoer @ Jun 3 2011, 03:14 PM)
Which reasons that we gave that has expired?
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sampool
post Jun 3 2011, 03:21 PM

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go to google seach "2012 economic crash" thousands of related links...
TheDoer
post Jun 3 2011, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jun 3 2011, 03:19 PM)
hmm... u can read back the old pages by 'onemorething' & supporters
or which reason has not expired?
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You are generalizing and making an assumption. Bad thing to do as a wise investor.

Myself, the issues I raised, have not come to pass yet. Which is that the saturation of the number of real home owners (the real source of money), will cause a slowdown and adjustment of the market.

I'm saying, if you keep on blowing, the balloon will pop. You are saying it hasn't, so it will never.
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 03:41 PM

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the bubble wil pop eventualy, but the time has not cum & neither has the signals
those new working class wil hav to work even harder to own props
the slowdown of economy wil happen with higher interest rate

most of the old folks hav cash on standby in bank savings
they'll bailout their kids & relatives
most auction listing r mostly low cost flat or unheard of areas

QUOTE(TheDoer @ Jun 3 2011, 03:25 PM)
You are generalizing and making an assumption.  Bad thing to do as a wise investor.

Myself, the issues I raised, have not come to pass yet.  Which is that the saturation of the number of real home owners (the real source of money), will cause a slowdown and adjustment of the market.

I'm saying, if you keep on blowing, the balloon will pop.  You are saying it hasn't, so it will never.
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eXTaTine
post Jun 3 2011, 03:53 PM

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It could be 2012, 2013, 2014 or 2015. But I don't think we will escape the debt crisis in Malaysia and around the world. But the later the bubble bursts, the more painful it will be. We gotta be prepared for this..
wunderbar
post Jun 3 2011, 04:24 PM

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i think a fundamental thing that most people should keep in mind is

"Buy what you need and can afford 1st, invest only if you have access cash"

i know of people buying a prop just to get rental income, they say its a way of getting a free prop.
this theory is all good and well only IF the tenants are good paymasters and do not leave.

i think as long as people dont get too greedy and over stretch their money, they should all be OK.
lucerne
post Jun 3 2011, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Jun 3 2011, 10:37 AM)
Oh sorry I was referring to after the crash. smile.gif Now property in the US is so attractive even ppl in Malaysia can call it cheap  wink.gif
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depend which area. if big cities then the price is flat eg New York, boston, Washington etc.

http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=215


property101
post Jun 3 2011, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jun 3 2011, 02:56 PM)
imo 2013 la  grumble.gif unless those highly experience peak gloomers can give other reasons
all their previous reasons has expired  bruce.gif  & price of properties DID NOT DROP
*
the good news is everything will revert back to the mean
the bad news is everything will revert back to the mean
WannaGetBuffed
post Jun 3 2011, 05:53 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 3 2011, 05:07 PM)
depend which area. if big cities then the price is flat eg New York, boston, Washington etc.

http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=215
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She's based in Washington DC. Florida looks very attractive, then it proofs I'm correct when I saw the newspaper ad on the 100k condo beside the lake.

So from the chart you can see that,

1. Florida achieved double digit growth from 2001 to 2006, and experience double digit drop from 2007 until now.
2. Washington DC experience double digit growth from 04 - 06, but drop is single digit.

This shows that, location is very important in defending against double digit deficit on the value. So when our turn to come, I wonder if those area in Nilai or Cyberjaya, Kajang will hit that bad.

Imagine Florida Condo is 500,000 USD.

-2 2Q 2007 - 490,000
-6.6 3Q 2007 - 457,660
-10.08 4Q 2007 - 411,894
-15.71 1Q 2008 - 347,185
-21.35 2Q 2008 - 273,061
-22.99 3Q 2008 - 210,284
-25.44 4Q 2008 - 156,788
-22.84 1Q 2009 - 120,978
-17.93 2Q 2009 - 99,286
-13.62 3Q 2009 - 85,763
-8.30 4Q 2009 - 78,645
-6.62 1Q 2010 - 73,439
-6.24 2Q 2010 - 68,856
-6.44 3Q 2010 - 64,422
-6.78 4Q 2010 - 60,054
-9.94 1Q 2011 - 54,085

The 500k Florida property is worth 54k as of 1Q on 2011. Lost almost 90%.



Imagine Washington DC is 500,000 USD.

7.28 2Q 2007 - 536400
5.74 3Q 2007 - 567189.36
3.02 4Q 2007 - 584318.48
-0.85 1Q 2008 - 579351.77
-2.57 2Q 2008 - 564462.43
-5.13 3Q 2008 - 535505.51
-8.32 4Q 2008 - 490951.45
-7.13 1Q 2009 - 455946.61
-8.84 2Q 2009 - 415640.93
-8.95 3Q 2009 - 378441.07
-5.19 4Q 2009 - 358799.98
-5.63 1Q 2010 - 338599.54
-3.96 2Q 2010 - 325191
-3.83 3Q 2010 - 312736.18
-7.08 4Q 2010 - 290594.46
-9.37 1Q 2011 - 263365.76

As of 1st Q, 263k. Lost almost 50%.

This post has been edited by WannaGetBuffed: Jun 3 2011, 05:57 PM
felixmask
post Jun 3 2011, 06:07 PM

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can happen to KV property?
CKHong
post Jun 3 2011, 06:31 PM

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omg.. 490k become 54k T_T

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