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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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PeterChai288
post Jun 3 2011, 07:00 PM

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Sometime we need to justify the quality of the product n its location.try imagine our high rise drop fr 500k to 100k meanwhile the construction material is cost more than it selling price.sound illogical rite.just like u purchase a new bmw 5 series with 50k.if this case happen, can i say proton is foc liao.then low cost house will cost nothing.u judge it...
firee818
post Jun 3 2011, 08:45 PM

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We have talked over 100 pages, but properties still surge as high as it could... sad.gif
sampool
post Jun 3 2011, 10:06 PM

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http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/world-new...ert_536549.html

Not a latest news, but still useful.
Onemorething
post Jun 3 2011, 10:16 PM

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QUOTE(firee818 @ Jun 3 2011, 08:45 PM)
We have talked over 100 pages, but properties still surge as high as it could... sad.gif
*
Yes until the Greater Fools run out, there another sucker to be had!
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 3 2011, 10:20 PM

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if u had bought instead of whining during version1. u can even be a flipper now & sell for profit doh.gif
however u prefer Greater Fool theory & upset coz suckers make monies from their properties tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Jun 4 2011, 02:25 AM

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from another forum:

QUOTE
Extract an articles from The Edge dated 23/5/11 by Azam Aris, titled : No end yet to rising house prices

-- many developers and investors in the market dun think bubble burst will happen soon. They believes prices to rise further. Maybe we need to reminded of the work of economic historians Hyman Minsky - who wrote Can it Happen Again ? And Charles Kindleberger, author of Manias, Panics and Crashes : A History of Financial Crisis.

Brad Jones, an investment strategist with Deutsche Bank says the framework created by Kindleberger and Minsky defines financial market bubbles as occurring in seven cycles :

1) displacement ( birth of a boom )
2) expansion ( growth of the boom )
3) easy credit ( fuels asset price inflation )
4) euphoria ( over optimism and over confidence )
5) insider profit taking ( liquidation of position by lead investors )
6) panic ( chaos as investors try to sell but are hindered by illiquidity and leverage )
7) revulsion ( investors stop participating in the market )

All major financial market bubbles in 20th and 21st centuries have followed this seven cycles of this framework according to Jones. "Notably today, it appears some Asian assets are in the third (stocks) and fourth (property, credit, loan and small cap) stages of the cycles , Jones says --


it is obvious there are those who believe we'll be in 3-4 for a long time while others believe we're into 5 already. some might even say maresia is so special that such cycles don't apply! one thing for sure - by the time we see 6, we can close this thread. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 4 2011, 02:43 AM
sampool
post Jun 4 2011, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jun 4 2011, 03:25 AM)
from another forum:
it is obvious there are those who believe we'll be in 3-4 for a long time while others believe we're into 5 already. some might even say maresia is so special that such cycles don't apply! one thing for sure - by the time we see 6, we can close this thread. tongue.gif
*
i agreed. but the 4 --> 5 ---> 6 can just happen within few months time... economic cycle changing fast and very fast now. Just prepared...


wave.gif 2012

This post has been edited by sampool: Jun 4 2011, 09:53 AM
lucerne
post Jun 4 2011, 10:06 AM

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just advocate prop will drop will u sell your prop now?

i have a fren in sg who sold thier condo in prime clementi area (near mrt) 2 years ago and rent temporary, hoping in 2-3 years time they can buy at lower price now regreted. The prop they sold earlier hv appreciated i think 50%..
sampool
post Jun 4 2011, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 4 2011, 11:06 AM)
just advocate prop will drop will u sell your prop now? 

i have a fren in sg who sold thier condo in prime clementi area (near mrt) 2 years ago and rent temporary, hoping in 2-3 years time they can buy at lower price now regreted. The prop they sold earlier hv appreciated i think 50%..
*
yes.. ur frenz is pity.. he/she never study b4 jump in/out.. wat to do.. this is life. If everyone think the same, there are no richman and poorman in this world lioa loh..

i m 88, in the 1st place... y? he/she wanted to sell.. either in financial problem or others thing else (dun like the place so much). Logically nobody will do that as it is only for own stay...



wave.gif 2012

This post has been edited by sampool: Jun 4 2011, 10:22 AM
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 4 2011, 10:19 AM

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I say we r in stage 3
coz the federal reserve r stil cautious

obviously some of u take delight & veli hapi when other central bankers increase their int rate eg.bolehland, kangarooland & etc
however, their dreams of properties price dropping did not cum true, hahaha

furthermore, the majority of forumers r not in euphoria mode ( over optimism and over confidence )
we can see so much complains abt price of everything increase except their salary

& who is the azzhole who says 'some might even say maresia is so special that such cycles don't apply!' which forumer was it?
also when reach stage 6. tis topic can still go on
u need to learn & teach ur cucu some skills nod.gif
at tat time, we see which area more resilient & did our bankers learn anything from 1997 asia crisis with their lending standard/ npl doh.gif

if reach stage 7, its time to buy wink.gif
u wil know coz, u had been thru the 2008 crisis & knew where u made the mistake & miss the opportunity
SmallPotato2011
post Jun 4 2011, 10:22 AM

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Hi guys, want to ask one question..... Kindly share share your point of view...

Yeah, recently BBB mode and many property price is up.... For those like us who bought property sure happy... As we are in the boat... Just wondering, if keep up-ing....

What is going on to our next generation? They may not afford to buy property further that time..... Chammm...... blink.gif Unless we can keep some for them... But then how's about "next next generation" leh???? Or may be I think too much jor? wink.gif
sampool
post Jun 4 2011, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(SmallPotato2011 @ Jun 4 2011, 11:22 AM)
Hi guys, want to ask one question..... Kindly share share your point of view...

Yeah, recently BBB mode and many property price is up.... For those like us who bought property sure happy... As we are in the boat... Just wondering, if keep up-ing....

What is going on to our next generation? They may not afford to buy property further that time..... Chammm......  blink.gif  Unless we can keep some for them... But then how's about "next next generation" leh???? Or may be I think too much jor?  wink.gif
*
sorry to say that human life span is not long (max 100 yrs)... after pass away.. the next next generation can stay in their grand grand father house.. but need to so some renovation loh...

Or.. as them study economic cycles... there are many ways..


Or.. camping.



wave.gif 2012
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 4 2011, 10:35 AM

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its all about demand & supply
since many r old timers, they dun wan sell their prime location prop
so those buyers up the price, but still few sellers
no choice lo, buy the newer prop

if u wan to know wat is euphoria ie over optimism and over confidence
ask ur parents abt 1991-1995 klse. ask them, were there any non blue chip share price above RM50 or 100 nod.gif
ths world is never fair, but at least u got something to giv ur cucu coz u r not renting
if u had bought more prop, u can alwiz help them out by renting to those new graduates or students brows.gif

unless u think bolehland fdi is fantastic & the whole world investing here, then might as well buy the super high end & target those pasar shakehead.gif
lucerne
post Jun 4 2011, 10:37 AM

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QUOTE(sulifeisgreat @ Jun 4 2011, 10:19 AM)
furthermore, the majority of forumers r not in euphoria mode ( over optimism and over confidence )
we can see so much complains abt price of everything increase except their salary
agreed most are investors, and most of them jsut want to headge against inflation (for long term) or want to make some passive incomes. Asian esp Chinese will always consider/calculate carefully their affordabilities and most do not stretch too far. Those over leverage (minority) will force to sell thier holding (they may not lose $ coz they made enough $ last few years, can cover their loss). These firesales will benefit those investors i mentioned earlier. (majority) , and price will stabilized after sometimes.
lch78
post Jun 4 2011, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 1 2011, 03:58 PM)
actually the bubble in yrs 2008 is started in 2006.. just the country close here and there.. until banking sector banktrupt on ppl realize...

bubble the next.. is forming maybe more earlier...
*
Our financial system is conservative. Even when the sub-prime crisis hit US back then, how much it had really affected local market? Of course it affected the economy overall but in the prop market, I don't see much effect back then. No cheap sales then and it rebounded swiftly and strongly until now. smile.gif


QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 4 2011, 11:06 AM)
just advocate prop will drop will u sell your prop now? 

i have a fren in sg who sold thier condo in prime clementi area (near mrt) 2 years ago and rent temporary, hoping in 2-3 years time they can buy at lower price now regreted. The prop they sold earlier hv appreciated i think 50%..
*
Nope. Won't do that unless I really need the money for emergency.

Your friend shud have invested the profits elsewhere (for eg stock market) to generate more returns. laugh.gif


QUOTE(SmallPotato2011 @ Jun 4 2011, 11:22 AM)
Hi guys, want to ask one question..... Kindly share share your point of view...

Yeah, recently BBB mode and many property price is up.... For those like us who bought property sure happy... As we are in the boat... Just wondering, if keep up-ing....

What is going on to our next generation? They may not afford to buy property further that time..... Chammm......  blink.gif  Unless we can keep some for them... But then how's about "next next generation" leh???? Or may be I think too much jor?  wink.gif
*
You think too much jor... laugh.gif

sampool
post Jun 4 2011, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ Jun 4 2011, 11:44 AM)
Our financial system is conservative. Even when the sub-prime crisis hit US back then, how much it had really affected local market? Of course it affected the economy overall but in the prop market, I don't see much effect back then. No cheap sales then and it rebounded swiftly and strongly until now.  smile.gif
Nope. Won't do that unless I really need the money for emergency.

Your friend shud have invested the profits elsewhere (for eg stock market) to generate more returns.  laugh.gif

You think too much jor...  laugh.gif
*
I hope u r right! Just prepared for good or bad.. nothing wrong. biggrin.gif




wave.gif 2012
lucerne
post Jun 4 2011, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ Jun 4 2011, 10:44 AM)
Your friend shud have invested the profits elsewhere (for eg stock market) to generate more returns.  laugh.gif
but the stock market has been flat for the last 2 years. stock rebound in mid 2009 then after become flat til now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESTI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

thk38
post Jun 4 2011, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jun 4 2011, 02:25 AM)
from another forum:
it is obvious there are those who believe we'll be in 3-4 for a long time while others believe we're into 5 already. some might even say maresia is so special that such cycles don't apply! one thing for sure - by the time we see 6, we can close this thread. tongue.gif
*
Actually, the bubble should have already pop since 2008.. But the FED kept supporting the US financial system preventing it from collapse by pumping more printed money to the world (not just US) market.

That's why there is a surge in asset/commodity price over the year (as long as FED kept printing, world will kept absorbing until the liquidity is greater than the global GDP, which is happening now) US 13 trillion of debt alone already reaching its GDP limit. Recent QE1, QE2 does not really contribute to US productivity (it alone does not solve the US unemployment problem, and US housing market problem), in fact it only help the greedy/risk taker (TOO BIG TOO FAIL) bank bet on the world economic to fuel their hunger in $$$$$ Therefore put the global financial market in risk of sudden collapse (so the next step who will FED ask to rescue the global market)

Put our mind together, do u reckon our economic can sustain without foreign capital inflow. The reason why some of us are not very convince about the pricing of the property cause the price cannot justify the standard of living in our country. Of course it will be good to have property price increase over the year, but does it meant affordability and does it provide a good rental yield.


Added on June 4, 2011, 11:39 am
QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jun 4 2011, 02:25 AM)
from another forum:
it is obvious there are those who believe we'll be in 3-4 for a long time while others believe we're into 5 already. some might even say maresia is so special that such cycles don't apply! one thing for sure - by the time we see 6, we can close this thread. tongue.gif
*
Actually, the bubble should have already pop since 2008.. But the FED kept supporting the US financial system preventing it from collapse by pumping more printed money to the world (not just US) market.

That's why there is a surge in asset/commodity price over the year (as long as FED kept printing, world will kept absorbing until the liquidity is greater than the global GDP, which is happening now) US 13 trillion of debt alone already reaching its GDP limit. Recent QE1, QE2 does not really contribute to US productivity (it alone does not solve the US unemployment problem, and US housing market problem), in fact it only help the greedy/risk taker (TOO BIG TOO FAIL) bank bet on the world economic to fuel their hunger in $$$$$ Those put the global financial market in risk of sudden collapse (so the next step who will FED ask to rescue the global market)

Put our mind together, do u reckon our economic can sustain without foreign capital inflow. The reason why some of us are not very convince about the pricing of the property cause the price cannot justify the standard of living in our country. Of course it will be good to have property price increase over the year, but does it meant affordability and does it provide a good rental yield.

This post has been edited by thk38: Jun 4 2011, 11:41 AM
sulifeisgreat
post Jun 4 2011, 11:47 AM

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yes & wat we can see once we take the time to observe its much faster than waiting for the lagging official reports
the poor wil alwiz remain poor, the rich wil alwiz set the bar higher while the poor need to catch up
everytime the poor gets near to their target, price suddenly increase & they need to catch up again to the target
u can ask ur nenek, last time in their era, can they really buy wat they want or they need to make sacrifice

QUOTE(lucerne @ Jun 4 2011, 10:37 AM)
agreed most are investors, and most of them jsut want to headge against inflation (for long term) or want to make some passive incomes.  Asian esp Chinese will always consider/calculate carefully their affordabilities and most do not stretch too far. Those over leverage (minority) will force to sell thier holding (they may not lose $ coz they made enough $ last few years, can cover their loss). These firesales will benefit those investors i mentioned earlier.  (majority) , and price will stabilized after sometimes.
*
abt stock market, here not the right place for detail discussion tongue.gif
economy, investment & finance is difficult to understand even though they r interelated
if not financial savvy, stick to etf/ unit trust. if savvy, go for individual shares

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=G13.SI&t=2y
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=S51.SI&t=2y
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=S59.SI&t=2y
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=U96.SI&t=2y
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=F99.SI&t=2y


PeterChai288
post Jun 4 2011, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(SmallPotato2011 @ Jun 4 2011, 10:22 AM)
Hi guys, want to ask one question..... Kindly share share your point of view...

Yeah, recently BBB mode and many property price is up.... For those like us who bought property sure happy... As we are in the boat... Just wondering, if keep up-ing....

What is going on to our next generation? They may not afford to buy property further that time..... Chammm......  blink.gif  Unless we can keep some for them... But then how's about "next next generation" leh???? Or may be I think too much jor?  wink.gif
*
It is good u r having long n wider outlook.so in order to save ur grand grand children,buy few properties n pass to them later on to pay the installment.so this way u still can purchase the prop at current price without worry the price appreciation in the future.Like this u can make sure ur few generation also have roof on top of them. rclxm9.gif

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