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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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AVFAN
post May 24 2011, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ May 24 2011, 03:20 PM)
my version of build then sell:
1. developer take full risk first hand. cannot sell during construction. higher cost of project especially financing cost
2. upon completion, calculate actual cost per unit
3. start selling with price up mechanism
4. once hit break-even point, completely stop selling
5. reanalyse to either sell remaining units at whatsoever price (since oledi break-even mah) or if rental is good mah rent out all the units lor
6. keeping units means recurring profit AND majority votes during AGM for JMB

if the above materialise, might even be worse for property market since we are even more dependant and at the mercy of developers.

not sure about countries that practises build then sell. maybe experts can share how they do it overseas. but overseas practise might not be applicable in m'sia bcos too many corrupted people here??

PS: would be extremely dangerous too if developer starts disposing remaining units at prices below initial buyers price if developers are in need of funding. it could well decide the fate of a development entirely by their decisions. purchasers lose eventually.
*
you missed the big one - crony dev and main cont will be kicked out due to lack of cash to be in biz. this can't happen in bolehland!!
developed countries do bts. only developing countries do stb - a matter of cash, i.e. buyers actually fund the construction.
antal
post May 24 2011, 07:17 PM

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I think the jury is still out as far as house prices is concerned. With food and fuel prices going up and the west gov inflating their way out of their mess, I think prop price may stagnate if there is a double dip other wise its going up maybe not at the high rate we see lately. dropping may be at some locations. Soon I think Malaysians will start thinking (local) ie people will really start prioritizing their daily commute situation coz its just going to get too expensive. I am predicting RM3 for ron 95 soon enough coz the gov just dont have the money for all the various reasons

This post has been edited by antal: May 24 2011, 07:18 PM
CKHong
post May 25 2011, 12:47 AM

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RM3 for RON95 will impact alot.. ahhhhhhhhhh
i hope we don't have to pay for RM3
as we're petrol importer...
what happen to those money gained by PETRONAS as for now the fuel per barrel is so expensive.. masuk poket kah.. keep on burdening rakyat... damit
Bobby C
post May 25 2011, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 25 2011, 12:47 AM)
RM3 for RON95 will impact alot.. ahhhhhhhhhh
i hope we don't have to pay for RM3
as we're petrol importer...
what happen to those money gained by PETRONAS as for now the fuel per barrel is so expensive.. masuk poket kah.. keep on burdening rakyat... damit
*
By right, petrol should follow market rate. We are producing oil doesn't mean we are free to abuse cheap petrol cause this natural resource does not reproduce, you can't plant it like fruits. Matter of time we will run out of oil.

Younger generations now get to taste sins of past generation. Stupid policies implemented in the 80' still carry out today screwing the entire nation.

Discovery of crude oil in the 70' ---> production of Potong, Twin Tower, highways, Putrajaya, KLIA etc etc.

Some of these projects are good of course. But a lot of them were over built, wastage, should have done in stages. Not yet mentioned inflated exploded budget.

Cheap oil ---> Potong cannot export ----> encourge local to buy more, cannot raise oil else cannot sell ---> forget about public transportation ---> buy more Potong ----> choke up the roads/highways ----> no choice Potong cannot export locals pls buy buy ----> built more highways for Potong ----> oh sh8T ----> oil high Usd100 ----> we are running out of oil cum Potong cannot sell cum highway jam out cum public transportation in sorry state, continue talk kok for yrs everything in wonderland blah blah

You get what I mean?

The other day spoke to a retired uncle in his fifties. He too saying we are screwed, many unaware who started this. Mentioned who else but the legendary dr. Those who live thru the 60', 70' era will able to see the rapid changes in the 80'

Yup, many think this old man is great. Don't forget with oil money you can do wonder. See how Dubai transform for nothing, a dessert to a wonderland. But story never end yet. How is Dubai now? Just bare empty buildings.

With oil money, any leaders with some intellegent can do wonders.

Question:- can the leader use the oil money to development the nation and the people who can self sustain with or without the oil money in the future. Obviously not. Instead, giving freebies and tongkats so politicians can stay in power as long as they can. In turn, going into self destruction mode. Many unaware how much damages to the mindset, policies and future of the country cause by a leader in the 80'.

Certainly NO thks to this Tun.

This post has been edited by Bobby C: May 25 2011, 10:46 AM
Iceman74
post May 25 2011, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ May 25 2011, 10:43 AM)
By right, petrol should follow market rate. We are producing oil doesn't mean we are free to abuse cheap petrol cause this natural resource does not reproduce, you can't plant it like fruits. Matter of time we will run out of oil.

Younger generations now get to taste sins of past generation. Stupid policies implemented in the 80' still carry out today screwing the entire nation.

Discovery of crude oil in the 70' ---> production of Potong, Twin Tower, highways, Putrajaya, KLIA etc etc.

Some of these projects are good of course. But a lot of them were over built, wastage, should have done in stages. Not yet mentioned inflated exploded budget.

Cheap oil ---> Potong cannot export ----> encourge local to buy more, cannot raise oil else cannot sell ---> forget about public transportation ---> buy more Potong ----> choke up the roads/highways ----> no choice Potong cannot export locals pls buy buy ----> built more highways for Potong ----> oh sh8T ----> oil high Usd100 ----> we are running out of oil cum Potong cannot sell cum highway jam out cum public transportation in sorry state, continue talk kok for yrs everything in wonderland blah blah

You get what I mean?

The other day spoke to a retired uncle in his fifties. He too saying we are screwed, many unaware who started this. Mentioned who else but the legendary dr. Those who live thru the 60', 70' era will able to see the rapid changes in the 80'

Yup, many think this old man is great. Don't forget with oil money you can do wonder. See how Dubai transform for nothing, a dessert to a wonderland. But story never end yet. How is Dubai now? Just bare empty buildings.

With oil money, any leaders with some intellegent can do wonders.

Question:- can the leader use the oil money to development the nation and the people who can self sustain with or without the oil money in the future. Obviously not. Instead, giving freebies and tongkats so politicians can stay in power as long as they can. In turn, going into self destruction mode. Many unaware how much damages to the mindset, policies and future of the country cause by a leader in the 80'.

Certainly NO thks to this Tun.
*
well said thumbup.gif

problem now, can our politicians have the willpower overcome these long overdue problems b4 too late or they just swipe under the carpet again doh.gif
AVFAN
post May 25 2011, 11:07 AM

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petrones accounts secret, only availble to pm.
maybe one day, we'll all get to see it.
estimated rm1 trillion during all these years.
it's up to anyone to judge.
next sick man of asia?
call it curse of the black stuff?
lucerne
post May 25 2011, 11:24 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ May 25 2011, 11:07 AM)
petrones accounts secret, only availble to pm.
maybe one day, we'll all get to see it.
estimated rm1 trillion during all these years.
it's up to anyone to judge.
next sick man of asia?
call it curse of the black stuff?
*
i heard petronas never sell directly to the market , all thru cronies. imagine how much money u made if u r given sales right/middle man commissions to china?? this is all buta $. (so long u support xxxx), that is why the pyramid never fall.
antal
post May 25 2011, 12:29 PM

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The real current market price for Petrol is around RM5 +-, so I think the gov ppl should get their act together to work out a more equitable solution to the subsidy issue. My point of contention is why should the ppl who are rich, can afford BMW, Merc, etc be entitled to subsidized petrol??

Perhaps (just a tot) they should charge full market rate and the individual can claim back if qualify.

also like in germany, the tax is included in the petrol so nobody pay road tax and no toll. This way the more u use the more u pay and can cut off all the leakage by highway concession co.
property101
post May 25 2011, 12:53 PM

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at this time (prior to GE), the G is talking about cutting subsidy and hinting higher inflation would take place, it shows how desperate G is unable to bear the cost of subsidy.

obviously there would be even less sweets after GE, i wonder what would happen then
CKHong
post May 25 2011, 01:28 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ May 25 2011, 10:43 AM)
By right, petrol should follow market rate. We are producing oil doesn't mean we are free to abuse cheap petrol cause this natural resource does not reproduce, you can't plant it like fruits. Matter of time we will run out of oil.

Younger generations now get to taste sins of past generation. Stupid policies implemented in the 80' still carry out today screwing the entire nation.

Discovery of crude oil in the 70' ---> production of Potong, Twin Tower, highways, Putrajaya, KLIA etc etc.

Some of these projects are good of course. But a lot of them were over built, wastage, should have done in stages. Not yet mentioned inflated exploded budget.

Cheap oil ---> Potong cannot export ----> encourge local to buy more, cannot raise oil else cannot sell ---> forget about public transportation ---> buy more Potong ----> choke up the roads/highways ----> no choice Potong cannot export locals pls buy buy ----> built more highways for Potong ----> oh sh8T ----> oil high Usd100 ----> we are running out of oil cum Potong cannot sell cum highway jam out cum public transportation in sorry state, continue talk kok for yrs everything in wonderland blah blah

You get what I mean?

The other day spoke to a retired uncle in his fifties. He too saying we are screwed, many unaware who started this. Mentioned who else but the legendary dr. Those who live thru the 60', 70' era will able to see the rapid changes in the 80'

Yup, many think this old man is great. Don't forget with oil money you can do wonder. See how Dubai transform for nothing, a dessert to a wonderland. But story never end yet. How is Dubai now? Just bare empty buildings.

With oil money, any leaders with some intellegent can do wonders.

Question:- can the leader use the oil money to development the nation and the people who can self sustain with or without the oil money in the future. Obviously not. Instead, giving freebies and tongkats so politicians can stay in power as long as they can. In turn, going into self destruction mode. Many unaware how much damages to the mindset, policies and future of the country cause by a leader in the 80'.

Certainly NO thks to this Tun.
*
I agree.. hmm.. ok la.. RON95 go for market price then...
If really take out all the subsidy, i hope no more toll.
sampool
post May 25 2011, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(property101 @ May 25 2011, 01:53 PM)
at this time (prior to GE), the G is talking about cutting subsidy and hinting higher inflation would take place, it shows how desperate G is unable to bear the cost of subsidy.

obviously there would be even less sweets after GE, i wonder what would happen then
*
next yrs even worse... ppl may need to sell their extra houses for cash if their rental not attractive/unable to cover 50% of their installment... then prop market will no be stable + over supply issue suddenly come into the picture...
CKHong
post May 25 2011, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ May 25 2011, 02:57 PM)
next yrs even worse... ppl may need to sell their extra houses for cash if their rental not attractive/unable to cover 50% of their installment... then prop market will no be stable + over supply issue suddenly come into the picture...
*
Yeah.. agreed.. over supply.. i wonder how many unit is under developtment.. at least got 20k++ for condo around klang valley alone
kh8668
post May 25 2011, 03:20 PM

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share with you all

http://www.cidb.gov.my/v6/files/pub/Bahagian1Feb2011.pdf

tigana
post May 25 2011, 03:43 PM

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i believe the chance to have a world class public transport system has been wasted. The LRT , monorail system isgood. The bus system just cannot work. I tried to take a bus from Kelana Jaya to Puchong last year. Waited more than 1 hour. According to the "timetable" there should have been 2 or 3 buses. When I asked the guy at the small bus station, he said I "missed" the bus. In the end I took a taxi. What a joke.
cherroy
post May 25 2011, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(antal @ May 25 2011, 12:29 PM)
The real current market price for Petrol is around RM5 +-, so I think the gov ppl should get their act together to work out a more equitable solution to the subsidy issue. My point of contention is why should the ppl who are rich, can afford BMW, Merc, etc be entitled to subsidized petrol??


*
Yes, you have a valid point, but
do not spread false info. smile.gif

Existing non-subsidy diesel is around Rm2.70~2.80/lit.
It is same with petrol, non subsidy petrol price is around Rm2.80/lit

Ron 97 is already near non-subsidy price indicator.


Added on May 25, 2011, 3:51 pm
QUOTE(CKHong @ May 25 2011, 12:47 AM)
RM3 for RON95 will impact alot.. ahhhhhhhhhh
i hope we don't have to pay for RM3
as we're petrol importer...
what happen to those money gained by PETRONAS as for now the fuel per barrel is so expensive.. masuk poket kah.. keep on burdening rakyat... damit
*
Current real market price (non-subsidised) is RM2.70~2.80.

My company got buy industrial diesel, which is non-subsidised, price fluctuate every week. From Rm1.80 when global crisis on its height, to now around Rm2.70.

This post has been edited by cherroy: May 25 2011, 03:51 PM
SUSwankongyew
post May 25 2011, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ May 25 2011, 03:43 PM)
i believe the chance to have a world class public transport system has been wasted. The LRT , monorail system isgood. The bus system just cannot work. I tried to take a bus from Kelana Jaya to Puchong last year. Waited more than 1 hour. According to the "timetable" there should have been 2 or 3 buses. When I asked the guy at the small bus station, he said I "missed" the bus. In the end I took a taxi. What a joke.
*
You can't build a reliable bus system that earns money mostly from fares. That just forces bus operators to maximize their income by sticking to the most heavy volume routes only and to wait for the maximum number of passengers before moving. This also encourages drivers to be creative about their route to make more money. Instead, you need a subsidy system that rewards bus drivers for being reliable. You need a timetable such that the bus should appear at each stop on the indicated route at a specific time. You'd need some electronics to monitor all this but the idea is that bus drivers get rewarded for sticking to the schedule as closely as possible.

You probably can't build an efficient public transport system based on usage fees alone. You always need a subsidy from car users. The trade-off is that buses use the road infrastructure more efficiently so it's justifiable to tax car users more heavily on road / petrol taxes and the like to fund public transport.
cherroy
post May 25 2011, 04:26 PM

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When you have traffic jam around the bus route, it is impossible for anyone to implement a timing and efficiency bus system.

You cannot possible solve traffic jam if our car new sales keep on climbing, from previously 50K per month, now >60k per month.

The better solution is getting good LRT, MRT system, that get rid of car around the town.
22222222
post May 25 2011, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ May 25 2011, 02:57 PM)
next yrs even worse... ppl may need to sell their extra houses for cash if their rental not attractive/unable to cover 50% of their installment... then prop market will no be stable + over supply issue suddenly come into the picture...
*
No need wait for next year, in fact some investors (My friend & my friend friend biggrin.gif ) already start to sell early of this year......they are foresee that property transaction will be slow & stagnant + minor adjustment for upcoming year....they dun want their money tied with property for couple of year till another hike of the price, they cash out the money to invest another tools in the market. drool.gif

Next year will be a "big pool" of sellers to sell their unit, I hope you are the winner among of them.

Jz 2 cents for my friend, i jz help them to draft the comments.... tongue.gif
kh8668
post May 25 2011, 04:33 PM

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QUOTE(22222222 @ May 25 2011, 04:31 PM)
No need wait for next year, in fact some investors (My friend  & my friend friend biggrin.gif ) already start to sell early of this year......they are foresee that property transaction will be slow & stagnant + minor adjustment for upcoming year....they dun want their money tied with property for couple of year till another hike of the price, they cash out the money to invest another tools in the market. drool.gif

Next year will be a "big pool" of sellers to sell their unit, I hope you are the winner among of them.

Jz 2 cents for my friend, i jz help them to draft the comments....  tongue.gif
*
so price is going to drop? hmm.gif
sampool
post May 25 2011, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ May 25 2011, 05:33 PM)
so price is going to drop?  hmm.gif
*
we cannot said the prop price is drop/crash.. but is rather the economic slow down and bring down the prop price indirectly.. tongue.gif

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