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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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novabankinghall
post May 24 2011, 06:25 AM

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even BLR up, your installment amount still the same. Just cost of financing increase (lower margin from investment and longer repayment tenure). There is no "immediate" cash flow impact to you.
lch78
post May 24 2011, 08:34 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ May 23 2011, 06:06 PM)
the statement is contradict.. U trusted this guy said?

"We expect that the region's stable economic outlook and rising household income--factors that have influenced average house prices to date--can sustain the market," S&P credit analyst Naoko Nemoto said.

"We believe that in the event of a downturn, most rated banks around the region have the capacity to absorb potential credit losses with limited impact on overall credit quality."

My is lack of expect/guru (many are goreng kaki too) which is far-signted and foresee the economic down turn.. in USA many economic expect/guru which already foresee wat is happen few years b4 any down-turn, they earn the $$ from economic cycle (it is different from goreng), ppl like rich dad type is needed in malaysia... but so far none.
*
I think this guy is talking of Asia as a whole. I mean I expect the property market here will start to drop back or stagnant a bit after 2-3 years of phenomenal rise and maybe in a range of 2-3% drop on average (I don't expect the mid range priced properties will drop in value). BNM tighter monetary policy and expected economic downturn by end of this year till next will also impact on the overall economy which ultimately will affect property transaction activities.

But I believe the consolidation in property prices will be temporary (<2years) since local market is supported by high demand due to a large young population looking for properties. If the ETP is successful, it will further propel the local property market to greater heights than now when the market has finished the moderation cycle. smile.gif

This post has been edited by lch78: May 24 2011, 10:38 AM
prody
post May 24 2011, 09:35 AM

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Prices of properties in Malaysia have dropped in Q1 2011 vs Q4 2010.
Malaysian house price index dropped from 146.9 to 145.7.
So looks like market reacted very fast to the increase in LTV and BLR.

Malaysian House Price Index Data

Prices of landed in KL are still going up.
Prices of high rise in KL have stagnated already.

AVFAN
post May 24 2011, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ May 24 2011, 09:35 AM)
Prices of properties in Malaysia have dropped in Q1 2011 vs Q4 2010.
Malaysian house price index dropped from 146.9 to 145.7.
So looks like market reacted very fast to the increase in LTV and BLR.

Malaysian House Price Index Data

Prices of landed in KL are still going up.
Prices of high rise in KL have stagnated already.
*

early signs, will take a couple more q's to confirm.
if this kicks in, hard to believe people will cut back on everything but keep buying inflated props.
QUOTE
KUALA LUMPUR, May 24 — The pump price of RON95 petrol could go up by as much as 20 sen next month to RM2.10 per litre as the cost of subsidising the fuel has tripled following unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, AmResearch has said.

The investment research firm estimated Putrajaya is now subsidising at least 90 sen per litre of RON95 versus the intended 30 sen per litre after global crude oil prices surged to US$99 per barrel from US$79 per barrel last year, matching the US$100 per barrel recorded in 2008. But it said the possible hike is still below the RM2.15 level that would have happened if a subsidiy rationalisation programme was carried out and below the actual RM2.80 a litre without any subsidies.

novabankinghall
post May 24 2011, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ May 24 2011, 09:35 AM)
Prices of properties in Malaysia have dropped in Q1 2011 vs Q4 2010.
Malaysian house price index dropped from 146.9 to 145.7.
So looks like market reacted very fast to the increase in LTV and BLR.

Malaysian House Price Index Data

Prices of landed in KL are still going up.
Prices of high rise in KL have stagnated already.
*
just normal fluctuation. study the past trend

SUSNew Klang
post May 24 2011, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ May 24 2011, 10:59 AM)
early signs, will take a couple more q's to confirm.
if this kicks in, hard to believe people will cut back on everything but keep buying inflated props.
*
Yes, now the sellers' asking prices have come down a little and there are now more sellers compared to a few months ago. Most sellers want to cash out now and it is a telling sign. The long term prospect will still be good for non flippers.

prody
post May 24 2011, 11:20 AM

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QUOTE(novabankinghall @ May 24 2011, 11:08 AM)
just normal fluctuation. study the past trend
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Prices tend to go up quarter on quarter.
Looking at the last 5 years, prices have dropped only once quarter on quarter which was at the end of 2008.
So 95% of the time in the past 5 years prices have gone up.




CKHong
post May 24 2011, 11:30 AM

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dam i hate those seller that jacked up alot for subsale..
But i want to thank them as well LOL !
if not how do i able to get a under development condo.. prefer going for that cus i got 3 years to save some $$ for small renovation + washing machine, etc etc..
If get a subsale, need borrow alot from FAMA which i myself dun reli like borrowing too much..
SUSNew Klang
post May 24 2011, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ May 24 2011, 09:35 AM)
Prices of landed in KL are still going up.

*
Agree with you however anticipating the rate of rise to be very slow from now on.
lch78
post May 24 2011, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 24 2011, 12:30 PM)
dam i hate those seller that jacked up alot for subsale..
But i want to thank them as well LOL !
if not how do i able to get a under development condo.. prefer going for that cus i got 3 years to save some $$ for small renovation + washing machine, etc etc..
If get a subsale, need borrow alot from FAMA which i myself dun reli like borrowing too much..
*
FAMA loan interest free?? brows.gif
CKHong
post May 24 2011, 11:56 AM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ May 24 2011, 11:49 AM)
FAMA loan interest free??  brows.gif
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yep.. interest free.. but then paiseh also ma.. borrow from them.. thats why i try to minimize borrowing from them too much.. currently borrow 10k from them so shud be ok..
each month pay RM100.. pay 10 years.. LOL !
if buy subsale at least need borrow from them >70k cus u know la.. seller thought their properties is gold.. they jack up till so high..

This post has been edited by CKHong: May 24 2011, 11:58 AM
nkhong
post May 24 2011, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ May 24 2011, 11:56 AM)
yep.. interest free.. but then paiseh also ma.. borrow from them.. thats why i try to minimize borrowing from them too much.. currently borrow 10k from them so shud be ok..
each month pay RM100.. pay 10 years.. LOL !
if buy subsale at least need borrow from them >70k cus u know la.. seller thought their properties is gold.. they jack up till so high..
*
Good lo got FAMA loan. Some people don't have FAMA loan and they are saving money to buy house and forever cannot catchup with the house price.

You are a good son cause u paiseh to borrow alot from FAMA and planning to pay them back. Some kids take FAMA loan and loan period is inifinity.
kochin
post May 24 2011, 02:25 PM

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last time i also use FAMA loan to secure my 1st property.
no shame in it.
less than 5 years, i fully repay them with 25% interest! smile.gif
blasto
post May 24 2011, 02:36 PM

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guys want to confirm ... yday news said build first then buy.
are this gona happen or in planning ? what's the impact ?
CKHong
post May 24 2011, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(nkhong @ May 24 2011, 02:18 PM)
Good lo got FAMA loan. Some people don't have FAMA loan and they are saving money to buy house and forever cannot catchup with the house price.

You are a good son cause u paiseh to borrow alot from FAMA and planning to pay them back. Some kids take FAMA loan and loan period is inifinity.
*
no lah.. i consider not veli good liao.. i need 10 years to pay back them 10k...
too bad my monthly installment nearly took out most of my money zo.. :'(
then somemore 1 year need to go travel 1 time.. if a good son then they will take off the trip and then faster pay back FAMA..
i think those FAMA that provide loan period infinity.. is bcos their FAMA is very rich gua.. my FAMA is consider normal only.. average.. so somehow i have to pay them back also ger ~

QUOTE(kochin @ May 24 2011, 02:25 PM)
last time i also use FAMA loan to secure my 1st property.
no shame in it.
less than 5 years, i fully repay them with 25% interest! smile.gif
*
saw ur post.. make me more paiseh.. u got pay them interest also T_T

QUOTE(blasto @ May 24 2011, 02:36 PM)
guys want to confirm ... yday news said build first then buy.
are this gona happen or in planning ? what's the impact ?
*
For my guess, i think the property price will be much more higher.. since developer bare the risk..
anyway, its my guess only.. i might be wrong ~
But i dun think it will implement so fast right.. they still need gomen to approve rite~ ?
Somewhere don't know where i read b4, they said price will be higher because (i just type what i saw last time lol)
1. Big + Huge developer will only survive as they implement build then sell, they need to have a lot of cash on hand
2. Small developer all mati
3. Huge developer monopoly all the property [so the price they can quote high or low depending on them] which i think they most probably will quote high price

This post has been edited by CKHong: May 24 2011, 02:43 PM
SUSwankongyew
post May 24 2011, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ May 24 2011, 09:35 AM)
Prices of properties in Malaysia have dropped in Q1 2011 vs Q4 2010.
Malaysian house price index dropped from 146.9 to 145.7.
So looks like market reacted very fast to the increase in LTV and BLR.

Malaysian House Price Index Data

Prices of landed in KL are still going up.
Prices of high rise in KL have stagnated already.
*
What the heck? The data says that condo prices in Penang are dropping. The index is at 2009 levels. I've heard many stories on LYN about empty condos in Penang. Can anyone confirm?
lucerne
post May 24 2011, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ May 24 2011, 08:34 AM)
. If the ETP is successful, it will further propel the local property market to greater heights than now when the market has finished the moderation cycle.  smile.gif
*
i think after mrt blue + circlle line completed, it will drive prop price even higher. it is happenning everywhere in the world. look at the traffic in KL, i think many ppl prefer to live near mrt or take shuttle bus to mrt or park n ride. (like Singapore)
prody
post May 24 2011, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ May 24 2011, 11:38 AM)
Agree with you however anticipating the rate of rise to be very slow from now on.
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I just stated that according to the data landed property in KL was still going up.
I don't expect it to keep going up however.

Looking more closely at the data for terraced houses from KL:
1) prices in central region are a bit lower then in Q4 2010 (160.7 vs 164.8)
2) prices in north region are a bit higher then in Q4 2010 (156.9 vs 155.1)
3) prices in south region are much higher then in Q4 2010 (170.7 vs 152.4)


kochin
post May 24 2011, 03:20 PM

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my version of build then sell:
1. developer take full risk first hand. cannot sell during construction. higher cost of project especially financing cost
2. upon completion, calculate actual cost per unit
3. start selling with price up mechanism
4. once hit break-even point, completely stop selling
5. reanalyse to either sell remaining units at whatsoever price (since oledi break-even mah) or if rental is good mah rent out all the units lor
6. keeping units means recurring profit AND majority votes during AGM for JMB

if the above materialise, might even be worse for property market since we are even more dependant and at the mercy of developers.

not sure about countries that practises build then sell. maybe experts can share how they do it overseas. but overseas practise might not be applicable in m'sia bcos too many corrupted people here??

PS: would be extremely dangerous too if developer starts disposing remaining units at prices below initial buyers price if developers are in need of funding. it could well decide the fate of a development entirely by their decisions. purchasers lose eventually.

This post has been edited by kochin: May 24 2011, 03:22 PM
CKHong
post May 24 2011, 03:22 PM

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agreed.. under table money fly here and there...
haih.. corruption...

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