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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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TheDoer
post Feb 23 2011, 10:48 AM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Feb 23 2011, 10:33 AM)
really?
seems like i should hold now?
i am so confused
one hand scared by comment of property up non stop
one hand got ppl say burst.

i hv the history of jumping in to an investment (for example stock)
immediately price plunge, drop drop drop.
rclxub.gif

sorry not history
is Histories.
i guess i never learn...
*
Then you should join now. We are hoping it will drop. biggrin.gif

Nah... just kidding.

I think generally we all agree, if it's for own home, you can go ahead and buy it if you can afford. No matter what the price, it's still your home you don't lose anything.

On the otherhand, if you're thinking of investing, maybe now is not the time. especially on props, that you can see is highly inflated.
hakon
post Feb 23 2011, 02:04 PM

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just a thought... so people say property prices will drop... but the question is when?

let's say 1 year from now there will be a drop... but from now to next year prices continue to go up... then it drops... and the price it drops to is still higher than the price levels now... how? smile.gif

so... don't wait... don't just simply buy buy buy... only buy if it is a good buy!!! kekeke... so many buys...
CKHong
post Feb 23 2011, 02:11 PM

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yep.. problem is we duno when it will drop..
some scare : buy liao.. few more months.. it drop..
some kenot afford to buy.. so no other choice.. wait looh..
Bobby C
post Feb 23 2011, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Feb 22 2011, 01:22 PM)
Like you fren, I also thought we'll have correction starting in 2012. I foresee this correction however will only be applicable to areas or developement where :

1. "New money" areas / development
2. Areas or development where its instrinsic value does not match similar, same locale developments. Lay man terms, OVER PRICED.

My bet is areas like TTDI, BU, DU etc will hardly kena....................  wink.gif
*
Correct, correct, correct. Agree v what you say. Mini bubbles forming esp newly developed area. Hope will not burst but if it did burst, first hit will be the new overprice properties.

It is unbelievable that new development sitting on formal rubbish dump also 'sold out' because of mere news on LRT extension, not even shadow yet but breeze, fire already full blown. Tat's dangerous. Nobody even care to do a search on the developers' background.

Others will will be new development tens of kms away from town but demand higher price than ttdi, bu, blah-blah ...

So layman common sense can answer simple question, not need expert to tell u lah.

Not prophet of doom to predict when's the dooms day coming. But received some wind for someone in the bank in managerial position tat thing might change by yr end.

Some say 2nd wave of Euro crisis.

I think might be after GE when piggie bank running dry, or when all the new development completed and entering the market at the same time. They will feel the strongest resistance. Well, if they can break the resistance level and have the same demand, then ok. All are safe.

Else, many who are waiting in this forum will be happily buying over at a discount, 5%, 10%, 15% ...

In the end, the developers run away will all your current and future cash and end up you become slaves for the banks for the rest of your life all because you don't understand your own needs and wants.


This post has been edited by Bobby C: Feb 23 2011, 03:18 PM
cherroy
post Feb 23 2011, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Feb 23 2011, 09:31 AM)
The funny thing about supply and demand is....

Even if there is ample amount of supply. But the suppliers all agree to raise the prices by leaps and bounds. If it is a necessity the people that requires it will continue to pay the asking price, as far as they can afford.

This is not indictive of the actual market price.

*
It is about people expectation.

When 95% of people expect A item price will be going up, you buy, I buy. You jack up price, I also jack up price, everyone do it, price keep on escalating.

Just like people said, price keep on escalating, not buy now, tomorrow higher.
Tomorrow not buy, after tomorrow higher
So die die also buy.

Mass people expectation is a powerful force.

Only until one day, people get burnt and lose in speculation on the expectation, only then this fever can be slow down.

Developers have nothing to lose, by keep on launching new project, as all risk are with properties buyers side. (when the project is sold out)
Housing or real estate is a strange product.
Whenever we bought a thing, we only paid money when the product is ready to use. Just like buying car, you only paid money when you bought the ready to use car aka completed car.
But house, you need to pay even though the house is 10% completed. Do we see car manufacturers demand 10% or progressive payment when car is 50% completed?

Also, nowadays, developers are more clever in launching project, by adopting 1st phase, 2nd phase, 3rd phase, at the same area, and one common thing I noticed, 1st is always the cheapest, and being sold out quickly, which give good reason to hike on price on 2nd phase.
When similar house on 2nd phase is launched at higher price, it pushed up the 1st phase house. And when 1st phase buyer make good money, it tends to people "greedy", and people will said/see, hey must buy, see how 1st phase buyers make decent profit, which prompt people to buy or rush to the 2nd phase, and so on on 3rd phase.
CKHong
post Feb 23 2011, 04:27 PM

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i saw one properties.. it got 2 block..
stated both block will be completed in same date and time..
but then the developer make it phase 1 and 2
=.=
phase 2 will be more expensive than phase 1 for 20~30k
both also build the same time.. finish the same time..
developer purposely make it 2 phase.. reli muntah darah..
chubbyken
post Feb 23 2011, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Feb 23 2011, 04:27 PM)
i saw one properties.. it got 2 block..
stated both block will be completed in same date and time..
but then the developer make it phase 1 and 2
=.=
phase 2 will be more expensive than phase 1 for 20~30k
both also build the same time.. finish the same time..
developer purposely make it 2 phase.. reli muntah darah..
*
agree.
now i think a lot of profit already grab by developers
investor might not gain so much zor?
Bobby C
post Feb 23 2011, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Feb 23 2011, 04:27 PM)
i saw one properties.. it got 2 block..
stated both block will be completed in same date and time..
but then the developer make it phase 1 and 2
=.=
phase 2 will be more expensive than phase 1 for 20~30k
both also build the same time.. finish the same time..
developer purposely make it 2 phase.. reli muntah darah..
*
That's ok, they did the same 6 yrs ago and way before tat. Early birds catch the worms. Marketing strategy. If u like ah pek see-see-look-look-going-merry-go-round-cannot-make-up-your-mind type then u good on you (no offense lah not referring to anyone here).

Worst they kept all the good units to themselves. Tell you all sold out or booked. If you interested, leave ur name, card, hp no, they will call u when available. Then slowly one by one release, call u so-and-so loan cannot approve lah, now available ... if u interested, quick quick money now or never... telling the same to all. S&P, building layout, official launch only next yr or next next yr type. This type of developers first go tell them go fly kite.

Look straight to our eyes. Just tell us what you are selling on the spot don't hanky panky behind the scene else give u a tight slap on the spot. Better put my hard earn money in many other investments. Don't limit urself to properties around KV. And dont just looking at houses and condos.

This post has been edited by Bobby C: Feb 23 2011, 04:49 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 23 2011, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Feb 23 2011, 04:27 PM)
i saw one properties.. it got 2 block..
stated both block will be completed in same date and time..
but then the developer make it phase 1 and 2
=.=
phase 2 will be more expensive than phase 1 for 20~30k
both also build the same time.. finish the same time..
developer purposely make it 2 phase.. reli muntah darah..
*
Marketing strategy and sales tactics apply to all kinds of products, although I dun like developer to goreng, but this is their rights to do so, dun blame developer, they are not pointing a gun at you to buy their products, willing buyers willing sellers, free mkt.., dun forget, those big guns are all public listed firms, profit oriented is the ultimate goal.

It is nothing wrong with the developer pricing higher and higher for each phase, so long the property worth it, then grasp it, and vice versa just leave it!! Buyer must do some research b4 decide to buy...if not, renting isn't a bad option still while waiting for the price to drop

I hv 2 wishes :-
1. "Hoping" the price drop
2. Increase my earning

I think the later one is within my control, I hv 2 jobs (looking for 3rd part time) (it is quite normal in HK, Taiwan and China now)
mcwong
post Feb 23 2011, 06:00 PM

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well, if developer not sell at higher price, internal staff,lawyer,banker,etc will take advantage to buy them n flip at higher price for investor or us.Sad to say, it's always happen 90% soldout not even pre-launch yet.
SUSUFO-ET
post Feb 23 2011, 06:20 PM

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QUOTE(mcwong @ Feb 23 2011, 06:00 PM)
well, if developer not sell at higher price, internal staff,lawyer,banker,etc will take advantage to buy them n flip at higher price for investor or us.Sad to say, it's always happen 90% soldout not even pre-launch yet.
*
Yr $$ is in yr pocket, why do you want to buy at a higher price.
Name me which projects are fully sold prior the the official launching..I know one Magna Prima One Jalil
Got chance to buylah, not a good excuse
cherroy
post Feb 23 2011, 09:44 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Feb 23 2011, 05:51 PM)
Marketing strategy and sales tactics apply to all kinds of products, although I dun like developer to goreng, but this is their rights to do so, dun blame developer, they are not pointing a gun at you to buy their products, willing buyers willing sellers, free mkt.., dun forget, those big guns are all public listed firms, profit oriented is the ultimate goal.

It is nothing wrong with the developer pricing higher and higher for each phase, so long the property worth it, then grasp it, and vice versa just leave it!! Buyer must do some research b4 decide to buy...if not, renting isn't a bad option still while waiting for the price to drop

*
The purpose of phase 2 is higher than phase 1, is to provide a step ladder for pricing increment.

If you know how valuation of properties being determined, then clearly, phase 1 valuation must match the phase 2 pricing.

For same location, same houses type.

Phase 1 RM 200K
Phase 2 Rm 220K

All people even professional valuer will say, now house here worth Rm220k. icon_idea.gif

Come in launching phase 3 Rm 250K, now phase 1 & 2 worth Rm250k.
Does anyone want to sell phase 1 at below Rm250K when adjacent phase is now sold at Rm250k?
Answer is obvious.

Phase 4, launch at Rm300K, now phase 1,2,3 worht Rm300k, now the market turns hot already, buy a house can earn 50%, in a few years time.

Phase 5, Rm400k, market even hotter now.
When market is hot, developers won't short of buyers coming, and for the same area of land, they can sell higher house price now.

So it is important they split out more phase and smaller quantity to be sold, so that each phase is sold out each time. As long as each phase is sold out, it provides another step ladder to higher pricing.

Above just my view, doesn't necessary must be true.


whiterival
post Feb 23 2011, 10:51 PM

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I heard that property in the range of 500k-800k will continue to march on and if the BUBLE breaks, it wouldn't be affected that much... coz many stil can afford it... unlike the higher ends one (800k and above)...
whycare
post Feb 24 2011, 12:41 AM

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QUOTE(whiterival @ Feb 23 2011, 10:51 PM)
I heard that property in the range of 500k-800k will continue to march on and if the BUBLE breaks, it wouldn't be affected that much... coz many stil can afford it... unlike the higher ends one (800k and above)...
*
I doubt many people can afford property 500k-800k... For most of us, affording property at 300k is still a problem. Many Malaysian are earning just 3k-4k / month. Buying a 300k will cost them 1.5k in monthly repayment, which is almost half of their salary, excluding maintenance and other fees!!!
babybolster
post Feb 24 2011, 02:49 AM

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Im planning to buy a house in KL now, now seeing the normal terrace house also almost Rm500k, a condo its around Rm300k.

will property gonna drop? i dont think so? last 2 years a semi D was about 500-600k. now for a 500k, i think you can buy a terrace house only.

rich people tend to be rich. they play property and the poor ones.. Haihz..

as whycare mentioned. its very hard 2 repayment for a house as in 500k you at least need 3k per mth.
GlobalKL
post Feb 24 2011, 06:46 AM

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Extract from Bernama (22/02/11)

KUALA LUMPUR -- iProperty.com Malaysia, the number one property website in the country, hit an all-time high in traffic with over 750,000 property hunters visiting its property website last month.

When compared with January last year, the website saw a 100 per cent jump in unique visitors, a 57 per cent increase in page-views and an 84 per cent increase in visits.

In a statement Tuesday, the company attributed the growth to iProperty.com Malaysia's recent acquisition of ThinkProperty.com.my, the launch of the brand's local vertical property websites, PropertyGuru.com.my and Home-Guru.com.

This also include the release of innovative products such as the iPhone and iPad real estate search applications and its network of distribution partners.

iProperty.com Malaysia continued to be the favorite channel for real estate agents to advertise their properties.

Between January 2010 and January 2011, over 2,200 new real estate agents signed with the iProperty.com bringing the total to over 5,300 paying agent subscribers, a 74 per cent growth, since last year.

"Our performance in January 2011 not only marks the beginning of a great year, it is also a testament of our commitment to our customers and consumers.

"We have great plans for this year as we work to continuously deliver innovative products, great service and unrivaled property hunting experience. I am confident we will continue to break even more records this year," said Country Manager Timothy Hor.

Source
http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsbusiness.php?id=565409


what does it mean? means a lot of people now go for secondary market instead of new launch as new launch is more expensive nowadays...

so if you plan to buy good subsales property, then act fast before grasp by others.

This post has been edited by GlobalKL: Feb 24 2011, 06:48 AM
whycare
post Feb 24 2011, 08:46 AM

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QUOTE(GlobalKL @ Feb 24 2011, 06:46 AM)

what does it mean? means a lot of people now go for secondary market instead of new launch as new launch is more expensive nowadays...

so if you plan to buy good subsales property, then act fast before grasp by others.
*
According to contractors, developers, agents, worldwide raw material price such as concrete, steel, materials, labour are all going up. There's not going to drop anytime soon.

New launches are not going to be cheap anymore like 2-3 years ago.
sampool
post Feb 24 2011, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(whycare @ Feb 24 2011, 09:46 AM)
According to contractors, developers, agents, worldwide raw material price such as concrete, steel, materials, labour are all going up. There's not going to drop anytime soon.

New launches are not going to be cheap anymore like 2-3 years ago.
*
as i said earlier, whose by in current is who going to marrige soon and these ppl is force to buy, seem no many choice... but, they will getting into financial trouble, by too many expenses,, furniture, marrige expenses, insurance, car loan, petrol, food..., if got children, then again repeat insurance, food, education,..... blah blah......

failure in stock market investment may take 2-5 years to recover, but failure in prop investment/or own-stay will take life-time to pay back. ohmy.gif
property101
post Feb 24 2011, 09:20 AM

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QUOTE(GlobalKL @ Feb 24 2011, 06:46 AM)
what does it mean? means a lot of people now go for secondary market instead of new launch as new launch is more expensive nowadays...

so if you plan to buy good subsales property, then act fast before grasp by others.
for me it simply means more people are interested in property, whether to invest or own stay.
whether they are interested in sub-sales, i'm not sure. but they are definitely checking out the market price (okay...at least the asking price) in the area they are interested.
however to some degree, i do agree with you. i personally find sub-sale market is much more attractive compare to 3 years back. perhaps in the coming years people are not going to be so crazy about snapping up new launches. sub sales will again gain popularity. the increase of new launches might not be sky rocket in the fast rate as previous 2 years
darius30
post Feb 24 2011, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(whycare @ Feb 24 2011, 08:46 AM)
According to contractors, developers, agents, worldwide raw material price such as concrete, steel, materials, labour are all going up. There's not going to drop anytime soon.

New launches are not going to be cheap anymore like 2-3 years ago.
*
And u listening to them ? Good for u then ... rclxms.gif

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