Yup. there are many What if conditions. Thats why i more prefer to invest in dy and stable stocks like pbb, nestle, dlady, carlsbg and etc etc. Chances of all these stocks going down 50% are relatively lower compare to other higher risk stocks like knm, time, timecom and etc.

So my strategy usually will be 30%-20%-20%. I will go in more during the final stage of 20%. It's a golden chance to buy if a good stock like dlady fall 50%. This is the chance for you to increase wealth and at the same time, gaining more passive income via dividend.

I forgot to mention, this 30%-20%-20% only applicable to high dividend yield and blue chip stocks. Other than that, i do not recommend unless your v confident on it.

Care to elaborate your 30-20-20?

U mean if it drops 30%, u buy
drop another 20%, u buy
drop another 20%, buy A LOT

???

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Added on August 23, 2012, 3:44 pmHigh DY stocks, drop 20% also rare, 50% is fire sale already

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Aug 23 2012, 03:44 PM

This month 7month of the chinese calender.. ghots break loose already!! Haha..

Set a target price when to go in. Fall 30% then buy some. Another 20% then buy some again. Another 20% then u can buy more. But the stocks like PBB hardly ever can fall for 50% even unless the same 1997 crisis hits again. Remember Pbbank only fell from rm12 to rm8 something during 2008 crisis.

Basically it depends on how well you understand a company's financial condition e.g. how low NPL of a bank stock.

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Added on August 23, 2012, 2:52 pm
message (U've my Yahoo & Skype mar) or PM me lar.
Cannot be that hard to use mar XIRR, UNLESS U only have the HOME EDITION of Excel, which doesn't support XIRR

[/quote]

Hard la.. I make a simple table with dates and value for easy understanding first. But to no avail also..

Ya need to PM or Skype you la. Or yumcha on me then u teach me... haha

Dun forget, high dy or not, it depends on whether how high a company's profit. Higher profit only can distr better dividend. So, during crisis like 2008, lesser dividend is expected. A com that post no profit can still distr dividend, but how long it can sustain?

er.. AngelOnFire (where's my CO2 fire extinguisher ), i'm no Oracle of Ulu Klang wor, thus opinions & POV only ar

60% Equities (i'm assuming a nice mix of normal stocks + REIT stocks + properties) & 40% Cash (no bond funds or gov bonds?)
Just to share - i too am having a similar mix - give or take 3%+/- as the market gyrates
ie. was 40%ish Fixed Income & 60%ish Equities last 2 months
now is 37%ish Fixed Income & 63%ish Equities due to my programmatic/scheduled investments + crazy SG & MY REITs run up.

Opinions / PoV
1. If U do mutual funds/unit trust (i guess that's why U are posting in this thread/topic), better have some of your Fixed Income in bond funds, which can be SWITCHED to equity funds of your choice to rebalance or going into lelong buying.
Reason: Bond funds generally beats FD or 2.5%pa interest.
For your consideration - my sh*ttiest bond fund transaction is giving me about 4%+pa net now (keep in mind, lose 0.25% straight away when moved into bond fund) VS my best bond fund transaction is showing 7%+pa net profit.
BTW, used to show 9%+pa last year and two (ie. 2011 and 2010).

2. Adding 5% stock exposure every month?!
er.. U taking into account your monthly savings boh as a replenishment to your Fixed Income / Cash?
If every month U taruk 5% into Equities.. i'd say U'd totally be out of ammo in 8 months time.
IF SHTF and lelong in month 10 how? U'd be totally lopsided in your Asset Allocation, with no ammo to scoop up the lelong equities.

3. SG Stocks
I'd still suggest going for REITs and Dividend Stocks in SGX coz it's TAX FREE.
The gross DY% U see is the DY% U get
I'm awaiting for things like APB (ran up way too high during the fight to take over), ARA, CEREBOSPAC, SEMBMAR & M1 to be of value to me.
Only holding REITs now in SGX as it was easier to compute VS the normal stocks above where multi-years' ROEs, D/Es, EPSs, etc. had to be hunted down - not easily available vs US markets.

4. China Stocks
No idea on direct China stocks - way too little solid data like multi-years ROE, D/E, EPS, etc unlike US markets
Personally - i'm value cost averaging & dollar cost averaging into PFES for China exposure
+ waiting for Shanghai Index to fall below 1900 before starting my value scooping (2 buckets, waiting - 1 bucket at a time)

5. General Asset Allocation
During choppy and totally unpredictable times, i'd suggest a 35% to 45% Fixed Income asset allocation (not cash only, mixed cash/bonds/bond funds).
This generates $ for us no matter what happens
AND is also a cache of ammo to be drawn on after SHTF.

Personally - my target in current an environment is to keep about 38%+/- in Fixed Income,
as compared to my normal zzz 33% (1/3 of AA),
and to draw down to 27%+/- for lelong equity binging usage.

Why i'm not targeting 50% or 80% in Fixed Income?
I'm assuming:
+1/5 years kaka happens but to what degree, no idea AND inflation is a near sure thing (as compared to the probability of deflation) thus i need something to keep up and beat it
+the major developed economies seemed to be printing/creating money out of thin air to keep things humming along. Not just US - UK, EU, JP too + CH's "easing monetary policies", thus to me having 80% in Fixed Income is akin to committing inflation suicide
+my emergency buffer of 1 year is NOT part of the Asset Allocation, thus i can draw down my Fixed Income portion of AA quite a bit if forced to

Just my personal thoughts yar, no crystal balls nor 100% gospel truths

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Added on August 23, 2012, 4:03 pmheheh - yes i did, in end 2008 / 1st quarter 2009 + endish 2011 and yes, i was called crazy even by some investing friends.
well, qualifying it - didn't JUMP in lar, just moved like about 5% to 15% of investable assets into Equities.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 23 2012, 04:03 PM

Wong Seafood, I thought u said Shanghai CI at <2,000 then u will start firing on all cylinders? Now 1,900?

My FI 70/30 EQ portfolio returning somewhere around 7% per year...still lotsa room for improvement? Am I too conservative in my targeted return?

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Aug 23 2012, 04:05 PM

er.. bro, 2008 fiasco, PBbank fell to $7.50 or less leh.
Nah, not based on my old foggy memory - i actually bought at $7.50

Is it? i look at chartnexus history wor....unless the software data is wrong

Wei.. mana i said fire ALL CYLINDERS ar? Start "biting" or getting in yes lar, crazy meh ALL CYLINDERS heheh

Perhaps better clarifications:
My "sure buy in / use up at least 80% of my cache for China" is 1,800 and less .
My "yummy.." is at 1,900
My "ooo backside start itching" is less than 2000

Aiya, old unker like that wan lar - got several levels of wants / aims / goals, just like my net worth goals and my investable assets goals

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Added on August 23, 2012, 4:19 pmAhh.. ChartNexus? U set it for "adjust price for rights issue and stuff"?
FYI - PBBank had some "X for Y shares held" shot out to existing holders somewhere between 2009 and 2011 (sorry ar - memory's a bit old & fuzzy )

Based on my buy/sell - i had PBBank executed:
10/03/2009 Bought $7.500
26/09/2011 Sold $11.780 (trailing stop loss hit during EU fear shake-up)
14.28% (of my cost) net dividend received

Holy cow.. 70(FI) / 30(Eq) and still generating 7%pa?!
Must be your AmDynamic Bond fund pulling up the socks cow cow leh

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 23 2012, 04:23 PM

Your right. Pbbank somehow in 2009 giving out bonus issue. I dunno also pbbank did hit RM7.50 in 2009. Probably it's one of the lowest price too. I still hold pbbank since 2009 mid till now. Plan to buy more in future. But 1st thing need to increase ammo.

AmDynamic Bond and Hwang Select Income Fund the strongest performers
OSK-UOB Emerging Markets Bond also playing its part

Aiya, such a simple function - make sure yr Excel is NOT the basic or home edition, ie. need to be MS Office Standard or Professional edition, then Skype or YM me lar.
Accumulate goodwill until hit bah kut teh or subway bread, then i withdraw

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 23 2012, 06:33 PM

Regret not keeping detailed investment & withdrawal data...now if I wanna do a systematic ROI calculation, kena dig my FSM e-mails and input the data one by one

Worth the trouble or not leh

Currently I only maintain simple (Value - Cost) / Cost calculation for individual funds...

Knowing U (numbers person), U'd do it
To get detailed per transaction's return (each transaction), total fund's returns (each fund) AND total investments' returns (which i think U have now).

(Value - Cost) / years aint too accurate one U've been running several years. Trust me - been there & hit by that before.
CAGR or compounded pa. is the holy grail mar right? Comparable to "no risk" FD rates & even mortgage rates (eg. to pay off mortgage or invest).

Me - i just have the first two only, and can't compute the total coz i keep pumping $ into my "investable assets", screwing up my "total" tracking

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 23 2012, 06:42 PM

A whole day's off time would be gone doing this...wait til I got the luxury of time and fresh mind

*korek my Hotmail FSM folder*

aiya.. for you bak kut teh or subway I also willing la.. haha

I am having hard time to know what is my Microsoft version. I know I am using 2007.. which I am still blur on the new buttons and tabs layout. I know earlier version I can easily check my version under the help tab.. but now I cannot find it. Damx...

Great...my FSM Purchase Order e-mails from earlier than year 2011 were deleted

Don't know if it's the same but in Excel 2010, the version can be access via FILE > HELP

PS: Going from Excel 2003 to 2007/2010 is a big shock since the layout is totally different. My recommendation is to google for where the buttons are located. It saved me a lot of time in the early stages until I got familiar with the layout.

This post has been edited by Dias: Aug 23 2012, 10:15 PM