These are exciting times we're living in - woohoo!
First time in my life i'm excited over the fear and pessimism surrounding MY, SG, CH & US markets coz semi-prepared mar (i don't think anyone's 100% prepared )

When all else is too iffy to make a decisive judgement-call, IMHO, best is to fly-blind & go back to basics (money management, risk management and asset allocation). Just a thought

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Added on August 23, 2012, 2:52 pmmessage (U've my Yahoo & Skype mar) or PM me lar.
Cannot be that hard to use mar XIRR, UNLESS U only have the HOME EDITION of Excel, which doesn't support XIRR

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 23 2012, 02:53 PM

And yet I am afraid of missing out on bargains.

Greed and fear

Park your cash in FDs/money market/short-dated bond funds, so that u don't lose too much in the meantime

and when hell breaks loose, it's time to go all out

Mr Wong,

I'm 60% equities, 40% cash. Currently adding 5% stock exposure every month.

If I'm into Singapore and China stocks, what's your recommended strategy for next few months?

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Added on August 23, 2012, 3:02 pmYup, am currently putting the cash in a trust a/c that earns 2.5% interest

This post has been edited by Angel On Fire: Aug 23 2012, 03:02 PM

Take a look at the list of bond yield of each countries. Notice that PIGS bond yield goes lower. Is that mean money flowing in to buy their bonds? Interesting...

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/bonds-list-by-country

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Added on August 23, 2012, 3:07 pmI suggest you can observe Wilmar. It's robert kuow's company that invested heavily in China. Btw, i do not hold this stock. Just an opinion no any recommendation to buy

This post has been edited by silentemotion: Aug 23 2012, 03:07 PM

yeah.. the problem is WHEN and HOW DEEP a discount/lelong

God knows

u buy STOCKS instead of funds?
Oi, salah thread, sini FUND Investment Corner

...and how low is really low...
...and do u really have the guts to jump in when everyone else thinks its the end of the (financial) world

Usually need to set a target as to when jumping in to buy stocks e.g. 30% down then buy slight, another 20% then buy more.

In gambling dictionary, that is called Martingale

What if u run out of ammo to buy as it continues to go lower and lower?

Yup. there are many What if conditions. Thats why i more prefer to invest in dy and stable stocks like pbb, nestle, dlady, carlsbg and etc etc. Chances of all these stocks going down 50% are relatively lower compare to other higher risk stocks like knm, time, timecom and etc.

So my strategy usually will be 30%-20%-20%. I will go in more during the final stage of 20%. It's a golden chance to buy if a good stock like dlady fall 50%. This is the chance for you to increase wealth and at the same time, gaining more passive income via dividend.

I forgot to mention, this 30%-20%-20% only applicable to high dividend yield and blue chip stocks. Other than that, i do not recommend unless your v confident on it.

Care to elaborate your 30-20-20?

U mean if it drops 30%, u buy
drop another 20%, u buy
drop another 20%, buy A LOT

???

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Added on August 23, 2012, 3:44 pmHigh DY stocks, drop 20% also rare, 50% is fire sale already

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Aug 23 2012, 03:44 PM

This month 7month of the chinese calender.. ghots break loose already!! Haha..

Set a target price when to go in. Fall 30% then buy some. Another 20% then buy some again. Another 20% then u can buy more. But the stocks like PBB hardly ever can fall for 50% even unless the same 1997 crisis hits again. Remember Pbbank only fell from rm12 to rm8 something during 2008 crisis.

Basically it depends on how well you understand a company's financial condition e.g. how low NPL of a bank stock.

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Added on August 23, 2012, 2:52 pm
message (U've my Yahoo & Skype mar) or PM me lar.
Cannot be that hard to use mar XIRR, UNLESS U only have the HOME EDITION of Excel, which doesn't support XIRR

[/quote]

Hard la.. I make a simple table with dates and value for easy understanding first. But to no avail also..

Ya need to PM or Skype you la. Or yumcha on me then u teach me... haha

Dun forget, high dy or not, it depends on whether how high a company's profit. Higher profit only can distr better dividend. So, during crisis like 2008, lesser dividend is expected. A com that post no profit can still distr dividend, but how long it can sustain?

er.. AngelOnFire (where's my CO2 fire extinguisher ), i'm no Oracle of Ulu Klang wor, thus opinions & POV only ar

60% Equities (i'm assuming a nice mix of normal stocks + REIT stocks + properties) & 40% Cash (no bond funds or gov bonds?)
Just to share - i too am having a similar mix - give or take 3%+/- as the market gyrates
ie. was 40%ish Fixed Income & 60%ish Equities last 2 months
now is 37%ish Fixed Income & 63%ish Equities due to my programmatic/scheduled investments + crazy SG & MY REITs run up.

Opinions / PoV
1. If U do mutual funds/unit trust (i guess that's why U are posting in this thread/topic), better have some of your Fixed Income in bond funds, which can be SWITCHED to equity funds of your choice to rebalance or going into lelong buying.
Reason: Bond funds generally beats FD or 2.5%pa interest.
For your consideration - my sh*ttiest bond fund transaction is giving me about 4%+pa net now (keep in mind, lose 0.25% straight away when moved into bond fund) VS my best bond fund transaction is showing 7%+pa net profit.
BTW, used to show 9%+pa last year and two (ie. 2011 and 2010).

2. Adding 5% stock exposure every month?!
er.. U taking into account your monthly savings boh as a replenishment to your Fixed Income / Cash?
If every month U taruk 5% into Equities.. i'd say U'd totally be out of ammo in 8 months time.
IF SHTF and lelong in month 10 how? U'd be totally lopsided in your Asset Allocation, with no ammo to scoop up the lelong equities.

3. SG Stocks
I'd still suggest going for REITs and Dividend Stocks in SGX coz it's TAX FREE.
The gross DY% U see is the DY% U get
I'm awaiting for things like APB (ran up way too high during the fight to take over), ARA, CEREBOSPAC, SEMBMAR & M1 to be of value to me.
Only holding REITs now in SGX as it was easier to compute VS the normal stocks above where multi-years' ROEs, D/Es, EPSs, etc. had to be hunted down - not easily available vs US markets.

4. China Stocks
No idea on direct China stocks - way too little solid data like multi-years ROE, D/E, EPS, etc unlike US markets
Personally - i'm value cost averaging & dollar cost averaging into PFES for China exposure
+ waiting for Shanghai Index to fall below 1900 before starting my value scooping (2 buckets, waiting - 1 bucket at a time)

5. General Asset Allocation
During choppy and totally unpredictable times, i'd suggest a 35% to 45% Fixed Income asset allocation (not cash only, mixed cash/bonds/bond funds).
This generates $ for us no matter what happens
AND is also a cache of ammo to be drawn on after SHTF.

Personally - my target in current an environment is to keep about 38%+/- in Fixed Income,
as compared to my normal zzz 33% (1/3 of AA),
and to draw down to 27%+/- for lelong equity binging usage.

Why i'm not targeting 50% or 80% in Fixed Income?
I'm assuming:
+1/5 years kaka happens but to what degree, no idea AND inflation is a near sure thing (as compared to the probability of deflation) thus i need something to keep up and beat it
+the major developed economies seemed to be printing/creating money out of thin air to keep things humming along. Not just US - UK, EU, JP too + CH's "easing monetary policies", thus to me having 80% in Fixed Income is akin to committing inflation suicide
+my emergency buffer of 1 year is NOT part of the Asset Allocation, thus i can draw down my Fixed Income portion of AA quite a bit if forced to

Just my personal thoughts yar, no crystal balls nor 100% gospel truths

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Added on August 23, 2012, 4:03 pmheheh - yes i did, in end 2008 / 1st quarter 2009 + endish 2011 and yes, i was called crazy even by some investing friends.
well, qualifying it - didn't JUMP in lar, just moved like about 5% to 15% of investable assets into Equities.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Aug 23 2012, 04:03 PM

Wong Seafood, I thought u said Shanghai CI at <2,000 then u will start firing on all cylinders? Now 1,900?

My FI 70/30 EQ portfolio returning somewhere around 7% per year...still lotsa room for improvement? Am I too conservative in my targeted return?

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Aug 23 2012, 04:05 PM

er.. bro, 2008 fiasco, PBbank fell to $7.50 or less leh.
Nah, not based on my old foggy memory - i actually bought at $7.50

Is it? i look at chartnexus history wor....unless the software data is wrong