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 Bond kaki lai, DRB HICOM bond coming

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gamenoob
post Nov 23 2023, 01:13 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Nov 23 2023, 01:59 AM)
She already advised me to sell sometime ago at around RM99
she told me all her other clients already exited.
i hate selling below cost
also the coupon so high 7.0%
she wouldnt know if i quietly buy from FSM
the DRB Hicom bonds i quietly bought some from FSM

in this Tropicana cheap sale i tried to get from her at below FSM price
she tried and got it but ..
after she put me on videoconference
with the head Investment Advisory & Research ,
prior to taking my signature, i changed my mind at last.

she was just doing her job in case i got burnt she had done her part.
like docs getting informed consent,
telling you all the highest possible risk of injury, dying from this and that
sudah dengar takut sampai boleh lari... sweat.gif
*
Hahaha.... talking about CYA....
contestchris
post Nov 23 2023, 11:43 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Nov 23 2023, 01:59 AM)
She already advised me to sell sometime ago at around RM99
she told me all her other clients already exited.
i hate selling below cost
also the coupon so high 7.0%
she wouldnt know if i quietly buy from FSM
the DRB Hicom bonds i quietly bought some from FSM

in this Tropicana cheap sale i tried to get from her at below FSM price
she tried and got it but ..
after she put me on videoconference
with the head Investment Advisory & Research ,
prior to taking my signature, i changed my mind at last.

she was just doing her job in case i got burnt she had done her part.
like docs getting informed consent,
telling you all the highest possible risk of injury, dying from this and that
sudah dengar takut sampai boleh lari... sweat.gif
*
What specifically did the Head of Investment Advisory and Research tell you about the Tropicana bonds?
zebras
post Nov 24 2023, 08:28 AM

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QUOTE(contestchris @ Nov 23 2023, 11:43 PM)
What specifically did the Head of Investment Advisory and Research tell you about the Tropicana bonds?
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https://www.fsmone.com.my/bonds/bond-resear...idity?src=bonds
TSguy3288
post Nov 25 2023, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(gamenoob @ Nov 23 2023, 01:13 PM)
Hahaha.... talking about CYA....
*
can say she is very responsible lah, she thought risky yet i stubborn.
she kind of getting an informed consent lah...from me before i buy and get burnt..

QUOTE(contestchris @ Nov 23 2023, 11:43 PM)
What specifically did the Head of Investment Advisory and Research tell you about the Tropicana bonds?
*
worst scenario
no call back and no coupon payment
and you cant do anything,
Tropicana just carry on running its business as usual.


contestchris
post Dec 6 2023, 11:23 PM

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Looks like the Tropicana bonds on FSM might be mispriced. Their financial performance in Q3 2023 results improved (pare down debt, redeem Sukuk maturing in FY2023, increased cash holdings, and assets disposal of education subsidiaries completed). Today they just announced W Hotel is being sold for RM270m.
Wedchar2912
post Dec 7 2023, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(contestchris @ Dec 6 2023, 11:23 PM)
Looks like the Tropicana bonds on FSM might be mispriced. Their financial performance in Q3 2023 results improved (pare down debt, redeem Sukuk maturing in FY2023, increased cash holdings, and assets disposal of education subsidiaries completed). Today they just announced W Hotel is being sold for RM270m.
*
really? but many bond investors will say that malaysia's bond market is efficient and liquid... ... blink.gif
TSguy3288
post Dec 7 2023, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(contestchris @ Dec 6 2023, 11:23 PM)
Looks like the Tropicana bonds on FSM might be mispriced. Their financial performance in Q3 2023 results improved (pare down debt, redeem Sukuk maturing in FY2023, increased cash holdings, and assets disposal of education subsidiaries completed). Today they just announced W Hotel is being sold for RM270m.
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if true the outlook should change from negative to neutral, let me ask Pak Sing from CIMB.

QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Dec 7 2023, 01:35 PM)
really? but many bond investors will say that malaysia's bond market is efficient and liquid... ...  blink.gif
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efficient in the sense market moves accordingly.
Outlook negative price drops.

liquid is iF you dont mind the cheap price,
sell people would buy you get your money.
contestchris
post Dec 7 2023, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Dec 7 2023, 02:15 PM)
if true the outlook should change from negative to neutral, let me ask Pak Sing from CIMB.
efficient in the sense market moves accordingly.
Outlook negative price drops.

liquid is iF you dont mind the cheap price,
sell people would buy you get your money.
*
What did Pak Sing reply?

I asked the rating agency, they are not going to issue any revised rating/outlook until their next review early next year.
contestchris
post Dec 7 2023, 04:52 PM

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The 7.00% Perpetual Sukuk price on FSM Bond Express bid has moved up from 92.50 to 93.50, while the ask has increased from 93.50 to 94.50.


contestchris
post Dec 7 2023, 04:53 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Dec 7 2023, 01:35 PM)
really? but many bond investors will say that malaysia's bond market is efficient and liquid... ...  blink.gif
*
Malaysia bond market is inefficient and illiquid. FSM Bond Express has the potential to be lagi inefficient and lagi illiquid.
TSguy3288
post Dec 7 2023, 05:29 PM

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QUOTE(contestchris @ Dec 7 2023, 04:50 PM)
What did Pak Sing reply?

I asked the rating agency, they are not going to issue any revised rating/outlook until their next review early next year.
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contestchris
post Dec 7 2023, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Dec 7 2023, 05:29 PM)

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Thanks. The progress billing and inventory clearing should provide the additional cash proceeds that's missing.

If you look at property developers, almost all have lower cash holdings than short term borrowings. They convert their inventory and locked-in sales to cash progressively.

My understanding is Tropicana rating was being downgraded as their business side wasn't generating enough cash, hence need to dispose assets to plug the gap and also to reduce interest expenses.

If you look at the MARC downgrade in April 2023, things have improved since then. And even then at the point, they merely downgraded to A-.

Anyways there is always an inherent risk. No risk no gain.
TSguy3288
post Dec 7 2023, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(contestchris @ Dec 7 2023, 05:51 PM)
Thanks. The progress billing and inventory clearing should provide the additional cash proceeds that's missing.

If you look at property developers, almost all have lower cash holdings than short term borrowings. They convert their inventory and locked-in sales to cash progressively.

My understanding is Tropicana rating was being downgraded as their business side wasn't generating enough cash, hence need to dispose assets to plug the gap and also to reduce interest expenses.

If you look at the MARC downgrade in April 2023, things have improved since then. And even then at the point, they merely downgraded to A-.

Anyways there is always an inherent risk. No risk no gain.
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looks like you have got good bargain earlier RM92.50 thumbup.gif
boyboycute
post Dec 23 2023, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(contestchris @ Dec 7 2023, 04:53 PM)
Malaysia bond market is inefficient and illiquid. FSM Bond Express has the potential to be lagi inefficient and lagi illiquid.
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Boleh masuk, tak boleh keluar
hedfi
post Dec 23 2023, 05:46 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Dec 7 2023, 09:32 PM)
looks like you have got good bargain earlier RM92.50  thumbup.gif
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What'll happen to their bonds now that Sunway wanna sue them for double dealing on the sale of St Joseph School
contestchris
post Dec 23 2023, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(hedfi @ Dec 23 2023, 05:46 PM)
What'll happen to their bonds now that Sunway wanna sue them for double dealing on the sale of St Joseph School
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It's already sold as per their Q3 report released recently. The legal battle will last years and unlikely to favour Sunway in any capacity.
contestchris
post Jan 28 2024, 01:31 AM

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Two positive news for Tropicana's perpetual sukuk holders.

1) Sale of W Hotel for RM270mil: https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3405904

2) Sale of Marriott Penang for RM165mil https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3417662

This post has been edited by contestchris: Jan 28 2024, 01:32 AM
contestchris
post Jan 31 2024, 01:25 PM

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user posted image

If anybody got bullets, go get this! Mispriced bonds with attractive risk-reward profile. Recently Tropicana has disposed of two investment assets, highly likely these will be redeemed at the call date in Sep 2024.

hedfi
post Jan 31 2024, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(contestchris @ Jan 31 2024, 01:25 PM)
user posted image

If anybody got bullets, go get this! Mispriced bonds with attractive risk-reward profile. Recently Tropicana has disposed of two investment assets, highly likely these will be redeemed at the call date in Sep 2024.
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user posted image
Is this the one you mentioned, don't look attractive wor. Please point me to the right one if this is wrong. Tq
contestchris
post Jan 31 2024, 07:54 PM

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QUOTE(hedfi @ Jan 31 2024, 06:33 PM)
user posted image
Is this the one you mentioned, don't look attractive wor. Please point me to the right one if this is wrong. Tq
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This bond, but small lot. You need to click the toggle.

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