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 Bond kaki lai, DRB HICOM bond coming

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contestchris
post Nov 20 2023, 11:33 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Oct 3 2023, 01:06 AM)
return too low 4.85%

Better go for tropicana 10.43%
this I bought  from bankers 2019,
the  price drop is tempting..
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I bought some at 93.75 a few weeks back, it's not at 93.50. What's the catch? How come FSM got so much supply of these bonds? Everyday they restock, sometimes multiple times a day. In batches of 100,000 FV.

If they don't exercise call, the couple steps up to 9.0%, then 1% higher each year until a max of 15.0%.

If they default, it has got first lien on 2x security cover.

So why so cheap?

To me unlikely Tropicana will want to miss the call on their first tranche of perps. They still have lots of assets they can dispose of to raise the funds to repay.

This post has been edited by contestchris: Nov 20 2023, 11:35 PM
contestchris
post Nov 21 2023, 05:49 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Nov 21 2023, 05:41 PM)
1)Debts high
2)sales so so only
3)outlook rated as negative
4)call back people think unlikely, no money to redeem.. hmm.gif
5) Panick sellers
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Your take? Did you add more?
contestchris
post Nov 23 2023, 11:43 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Nov 23 2023, 01:59 AM)
She already advised me to sell sometime ago at around RM99
she told me all her other clients already exited.
i hate selling below cost
also the coupon so high 7.0%
she wouldnt know if i quietly buy from FSM
the DRB Hicom bonds i quietly bought some from FSM

in this Tropicana cheap sale i tried to get from her at below FSM price
she tried and got it but ..
after she put me on videoconference
with the head Investment Advisory & Research ,
prior to taking my signature, i changed my mind at last.

she was just doing her job in case i got burnt she had done her part.
like docs getting informed consent,
telling you all the highest possible risk of injury, dying from this and that
sudah dengar takut sampai boleh lari... sweat.gif
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What specifically did the Head of Investment Advisory and Research tell you about the Tropicana bonds?
contestchris
post Dec 6 2023, 11:23 PM

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Looks like the Tropicana bonds on FSM might be mispriced. Their financial performance in Q3 2023 results improved (pare down debt, redeem Sukuk maturing in FY2023, increased cash holdings, and assets disposal of education subsidiaries completed). Today they just announced W Hotel is being sold for RM270m.
contestchris
post Dec 7 2023, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Dec 7 2023, 02:15 PM)
if true the outlook should change from negative to neutral, let me ask Pak Sing from CIMB.
efficient in the sense market moves accordingly.
Outlook negative price drops.

liquid is iF you dont mind the cheap price,
sell people would buy you get your money.
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What did Pak Sing reply?

I asked the rating agency, they are not going to issue any revised rating/outlook until their next review early next year.
contestchris
post Dec 7 2023, 04:52 PM

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The 7.00% Perpetual Sukuk price on FSM Bond Express bid has moved up from 92.50 to 93.50, while the ask has increased from 93.50 to 94.50.


contestchris
post Dec 7 2023, 04:53 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Dec 7 2023, 01:35 PM)
really? but many bond investors will say that malaysia's bond market is efficient and liquid... ...  blink.gif
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Malaysia bond market is inefficient and illiquid. FSM Bond Express has the potential to be lagi inefficient and lagi illiquid.
contestchris
post Dec 7 2023, 05:51 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Dec 7 2023, 05:29 PM)

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Thanks. The progress billing and inventory clearing should provide the additional cash proceeds that's missing.

If you look at property developers, almost all have lower cash holdings than short term borrowings. They convert their inventory and locked-in sales to cash progressively.

My understanding is Tropicana rating was being downgraded as their business side wasn't generating enough cash, hence need to dispose assets to plug the gap and also to reduce interest expenses.

If you look at the MARC downgrade in April 2023, things have improved since then. And even then at the point, they merely downgraded to A-.

Anyways there is always an inherent risk. No risk no gain.
contestchris
post Dec 23 2023, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(hedfi @ Dec 23 2023, 05:46 PM)
What'll happen to their bonds now that Sunway wanna sue them for double dealing on the sale of St Joseph School
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It's already sold as per their Q3 report released recently. The legal battle will last years and unlikely to favour Sunway in any capacity.
contestchris
post Jan 28 2024, 01:31 AM

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Two positive news for Tropicana's perpetual sukuk holders.

1) Sale of W Hotel for RM270mil: https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3405904

2) Sale of Marriott Penang for RM165mil https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3417662

This post has been edited by contestchris: Jan 28 2024, 01:32 AM
contestchris
post Jan 31 2024, 01:25 PM

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user posted image

If anybody got bullets, go get this! Mispriced bonds with attractive risk-reward profile. Recently Tropicana has disposed of two investment assets, highly likely these will be redeemed at the call date in Sep 2024.

contestchris
post Jan 31 2024, 07:54 PM

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QUOTE(hedfi @ Jan 31 2024, 06:33 PM)
user posted image
Is this the one you mentioned, don't look attractive wor. Please point me to the right one if this is wrong. Tq
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This bond, but small lot. You need to click the toggle.
contestchris
post Jan 31 2024, 09:13 PM

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QUOTE(hedfi @ Jan 31 2024, 09:10 PM)
Tq for your reply, means will have buy below 50k right?
Can buy a few lots of say 30k each?
Sorry new to buying bonds from FSM, usually buy from bank with higher fees
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I believe you can buy as much as there's available for sale.
contestchris
post Feb 1 2024, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Feb 1 2024, 10:04 PM)
i bet another 100k.....take the risk lah.
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Well done good sir. Sadly, I don't have bullets, have a holding of RM60k nominal.
contestchris
post Feb 13 2024, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Feb 13 2024, 07:07 PM)
I think you meant bond price going downhill....

Market is pricing increased risk on the bonds. On the callability I guess.
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Nah, it's FSM manipulating the Bond Express prices. It's a very opaque system. I might write in an official complaint to SC about this. Although it doesn't really impact me since I'll hold to whenever it is called.

The yields on the real market have somewhat stablised and even recovered.
contestchris
post Feb 13 2024, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Feb 13 2024, 10:26 PM)
well, the only way to test whether the price is being manipulated (assuming too cheap) is to hit the price and see if they honor the deal. that's how price discovery work.

edit: btw, i don't mean to ask you buy more of the bond. that's not my intention. i am just describing the standard method to check if the price is real.
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As you can see, there are no bonds for sale at 93.5.

They are offering to buy 50k nominal at 92.0. Which is an absurd low price, and despite that, some who are desperate for cash flow still sell out.

When they have inventory, they buy at 92.0 and sell at 93.5. So they're making easy money. But, the price is not reflective of the actual market valuation. They're profiting from the trading fees, platform fees, AND the bid-ask spread.

Actual transaction: https://www.bixmalaysia.com/security-info-p...nformation-tab6

As you can see, other than the two trades at 91.0 on 29th Jan 2024, trades have been stable at around 96.0 - 98.0.

I have a hunch that it is even possible that the 91.0 trades were purchased by FSM on the open market, hence they had quite a bit of inventory to sell at 93.5 over the past couple of weeks on Bond Express.

The Bond Express platform should be like a stock exchange, allow market participants to bid the price, rather than FSM setting the prices via some opaque mechanism.

This post has been edited by contestchris: Feb 13 2024, 11:39 PM
contestchris
post Feb 14 2024, 12:20 AM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Feb 14 2024, 12:08 AM)
This is what illiquidity means, and that bonds are traded in the OTC market. As much as Bond Express is trying to make itself like a exchange, it is not. It is just a platform. The other "platform" the retail banks and buy via your fav RM.

Prices presented as 92.0/93.5 is the bid/offer price on the platform. No transactions at these levels indicate illiquidity, and in some sense, is the market price on this platform. If a investor feel it is good value, then he should just hit the 93.5 price and get his bond. In fact, if this investor have enough money and risk appetite, he can keep on buying the bonds until FSM platform runs out or until the price shifts higher.
Conversely, if a existing investor is desperate and willing to sell his bonds at 92, he should just throw.

The other part is a market structure issue, which maybe you would know.
Similar to Brk-A convertible to Brk-B (and then to -C) but in reverse, would you know if the small lot size can be grouped together to form the standard lot size of 250K rm? I suspect it is not possible and hence this creates a weird dual pricing.
(like you said, there were transaction of 250K rm at 91, which suggested someone can break the standard lot to small lot and try to earn the 2 bucks. It is just a guess and no way to find out except to ask some insider in FSM).

Nonetheless, looking the transactions, even the full lots are traded below par, with 6 months away for the callability. Investors are not fully convinced that the issuer will call back the bonds. I also think this bond don't have cumulative deferral feature. Just my guess.
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There is NO WAY for you to buy at 93.50 at the moment. FSM is not selling at that price.

You can however sell at 92.00. Up to RM50k nominal.

At the moment, FSM is only buying at 92.00 and that's why I say, there is some level of manipulation here.
contestchris
post Feb 20 2024, 01:58 PM

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Pricing has gone up.
contestchris
post Mar 3 2024, 12:10 AM

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QUOTE(guy3288 @ Mar 2 2024, 11:09 PM)
Bank Islam Vice President Wealth guy Ivan said he thinks call back unlikely.
never mind lah as long as next coupon 9% can be paid.
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I find that hard to believe. Tropicana is buying new land with bank financing at 6%. They'd be dumb to not exercise the call option as the interest will br 9%. It will scare existing bond investors and unlikely to be able to issue bonds anytime soon. Will cause a rating downgrade too maybe. I've spoken to MARC and they think it'd be to Tropicana's detriment to not call back.
contestchris
post Mar 3 2024, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Mar 3 2024, 02:53 PM)
no lar... like the name suggested, it is a perp, with a callable feature. The call sits with the issuer.

issuer not calling it is not a bankruptcy event, as it is specifically allowed in the mandate.
This bond have dividend covenant? if got, then maybe not so bad.
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Yes it's part of the feature but it doesn't inspire confidence in the credit capacity of the company, who in their right mind will pay 9% coupon on a perp when they can get long term credit from banks at 6%?

So much bullshit from some people.

Like I said, I spoke with the guys doing the rating of Trooicana sukuk at MARC, they confirmed that not redeeming the bond at the call date is going to be viewed as credit negative.

It's specifically the step up nature of the perp that makes it credit negative to not exercise the redemption.

This post has been edited by contestchris: Mar 3 2024, 03:07 PM

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