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 Will you think the property market will fall soon?, will the landed property fall in 2024?

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clyeoh1980
post May 4 2023, 04:50 PM

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https://napic.jpph.gov.my/portal/web/guest/...1&fileURI=22518

https://napic.jpph.gov.my/portal/web/guest/...1&fileURI=22501

This post has been edited by clyeoh1980: May 4 2023, 04:52 PM


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Attached File  4.Price_RentalIndexH12022.pdf ( 3.17mb ) Number of downloads: 62
A.B.D.
post May 4 2023, 05:12 PM

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thanks clyeoh1980, that's a lot of recent data
TrialGone
post May 4 2023, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 4 2023, 03:26 PM)
ehh how can i say so? i just trust developers and banks have done the research. they are back to launching more projects now that it's post pandemic and spending multi millions.

you have money in banks and epf or not? if yes, you better pray they don't lose your money in the property and construction industry.

but one thing i agree is that it doesn't matter what you said or i said, our words have no effect on the property market  rclxms.gif
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....... The whole point is not to trust developers and banks blindly, yet here we are. Hey let's pretend banking crisis now in amurica and China is a just a fleeting dream.

Man, so many flippers, prop agent and developers lurking here. /k is really popular haha.

This post has been edited by TrialGone: May 4 2023, 05:23 PM
icemanfx
post May 4 2023, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(clyeoh1980 @ May 4 2023, 04:43 PM)
Amazingly, house prices in Malaysia are still below pre-Asian Crisis 1997 levels, in inflation-adjusted terms, despite the recent housing boom.

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Ma...a/Price-History

ChAOoz
post May 4 2023, 10:53 PM

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QUOTE(jojolicia @ May 3 2023, 10:11 AM)
You are eric yong?
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Should be crestbuilder/mbam eric yong then based on his replies.
sjteh
post May 4 2023, 10:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 4 2023, 05:31 PM)
Amazingly, house prices in Malaysia are still below pre-Asian Crisis 1997 levels, in inflation-adjusted terms, despite the recent housing boom.

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Ma...a/Price-History
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Believe only HK & Msia did not join the few years back global real estate price hike bandwagon
ChAOoz
post May 4 2023, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(Drian @ May 4 2023, 04:27 AM)
Technically , property did not hedge against inflation in Malaysia from 2015  up to now.
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Due to wage growth issues.

Majority of populations did not upskill, country as a whole we did not move up the value chain, so housing affordability is still a constraint for upward price movement.

Whereas others like thailand, vietnam, indonesia and singapore is climbing the production value chain at a faster paced than us relatively, so there is real income growth.
SUSSihambodoh
post May 4 2023, 11:02 PM

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Ploperty flippers will face reckoning soon. 15 years of non stop printing allowed them to party for so long. Now there's no more moratorium or EPF withdrawals to help them stay afloat.

For those who say material labor cost up, how can ploperty price go down? Just look at US. When nobody buys, the market doesn't give a fuck if your cost has increased. You sell cheap or gulung tikar.
Chrono-Trigger
post May 4 2023, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(Sihambodoh @ May 4 2023, 11:02 PM)
Ploperty flippers will face reckoning soon. 15 years of non stop printing allowed them to party for so long. Now there's no more moratorium or EPF withdrawals to help them stay afloat.

For those who say material labor cost up, how can ploperty price go down? Just look at US. When nobody buys, the market doesn't give a fuck if your cost has increased. You sell cheap or gulung tikar.
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too big to fail, banks profit, etc all linked to properties like a lot....

no way government will let it fail, worst case scenario, allow foreigners to buy
thickface
post May 5 2023, 12:56 AM

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QUOTE(Sihambodoh @ May 4 2023, 11:02 PM)
Ploperty flippers will face reckoning soon. 15 years of non stop printing allowed them to party for so long. Now there's no more moratorium or EPF withdrawals to help them stay afloat.

For those who say material labor cost up, how can ploperty price go down? Just look at US. When nobody buys, the market doesn't give a fuck if your cost has increased. You sell cheap or gulung tikar.
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You do know that if the property price drops like what you mentioned, we are all in deep crap because it defines the country stabilization. It means your money has no value or basically useless, only able to use it in this country.

Prior to that happening, like what some people mentioned, other methods to ensure money flow keeps coming in.

This can go on and on. I believe market is good for those who survey hard and smart. Don't buy overpriced things. At the end of the day, property is either an investment or a place you stay in (emotional attachment). If investment, sure got profit or loss. If emotional attachment, just buy ni.
SUSSihambodoh
post May 5 2023, 03:45 AM

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QUOTE(thickface @ May 5 2023, 12:56 AM)
You do know that if the property price drops like what you mentioned, we are all in deep crap because it defines the country stabilization. It means your money has no value or basically useless, only able to use it in this country.

Prior to that happening, like what some people mentioned, other methods to ensure money flow keeps coming in.

This can go on and on. I believe market is good for those who survey hard and smart. Don't buy overpriced things. At the end of the day, property is either an investment or a place you stay in (emotional attachment). If investment, sure got profit or loss. If emotional attachment, just buy ni.
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When there is a major recession, most will be affected but not all. Also, it doesn't have to drop like 90%. Even I don't want this country to be like Sri Lanka. But in a major recession it can drop 30% to 50%. Again using US as reference, during the GFC, properties dropped as much as 50%. Right now, even before an official recession, luxury homes have already dropped 30% while commercial real estate CRE some have dropped as much as 80%.

I really don't understand why Malaysians are so confident of our property market like our economy is so strong. Even China is struggling in their property market.

The stupidest comment I always here is labour and material price increase. Like people must buy property and can't rent. Rental market is hot now, any guesses why?
kidmad
post May 5 2023, 07:35 AM

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QUOTE(Sihambodoh @ May 4 2023, 11:02 PM)
Ploperty flippers will face reckoning soon. 15 years of non stop printing allowed them to party for so long. Now there's no more moratorium or EPF withdrawals to help them stay afloat.

For those who say material labor cost up, how can ploperty price go down? Just look at US. When nobody buys, the market doesn't give a fuck if your cost has increased. You sell cheap or gulung tikar.
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It shows you weren't aware on what's going on in states. California and New York property went crazy, making an average joe can no longer afford a property there. They went kuku in 2018 where a studio unit alone had hikes of more than > 200k USD. A small studio would easily cost 700k USD and above. So a small studio rental cost ppl approx 2.5k USD in NYC. That's on a lower side.

The way I look at it with all their recent feds hike that's what they are asking for. Ppl started defaulting loans, rental cost has to be increased further. No way repayment can be cheap. Of course ppl will stop buying. That's because no one can afford it! Malaysia got such hike meh? Also malaysia property during 2020 pandemic it did took a hit.. 30% drop in value for most cases. U did not know?
kidmad
post May 5 2023, 07:38 AM

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QUOTE(Sihambodoh @ May 5 2023, 03:45 AM)
When there is a major recession, most will be affected but not all. Also, it doesn't have to drop like 90%. Even I don't want this country to be like Sri Lanka. But in a major recession it can drop 30% to 50%. Again using US as reference, during the GFC, properties dropped as much as 50%. Right now, even before an official recession, luxury homes have already dropped 30% while commercial real estate CRE some have dropped as much as 80%.

I really don't understand why Malaysians are so confident of our property market like our economy is so strong. Even China is struggling in their property market.

The stupidest comment I always here is labour and material price increase. Like people must buy property and can't rent. Rental market is hot now, any guesses why?
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In 2020 crisis it affects all. No one was spared. During pandemic with all those mco going on... U can't even go viewing or execute a prop purchase.

Also if it's purely economic crisis, it impacts all what are you talking man.. Have not learn enough from Sri Lanka? Or any of those African nation? Please go study what happens to a country where such economic crisis happens. Just look at sri Lanka as a case study.. Buying property when times are bad? U must be kidding me.
TrialGone
post May 5 2023, 08:48 AM

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QUOTE(thickface @ May 5 2023, 12:56 AM)
You do know that if the property price drops like what you mentioned, we are all in deep crap because it defines the country stabilization. It means your money has no value or basically useless, only able to use it in this country.

Prior to that happening, like what some people mentioned, other methods to ensure money flow keeps coming in.

This can go on and on. I believe market is good for those who survey hard and smart. Don't buy overpriced things. At the end of the day, property is either an investment or a place you stay in (emotional attachment). If investment, sure got profit or loss. If emotional attachment, just buy ni.
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If price keeps go up, its the same thing. It can only "drop" if high.

Funny thing is there are still prop owner that thinking of selling prop at >200% markup price lol.

This post has been edited by TrialGone: May 5 2023, 08:48 AM
nxtpg
post May 5 2023, 09:17 AM

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QUOTE(Sihambodoh @ May 5 2023, 03:45 AM)
When there is a major recession, most will be affected but not all. Also, it doesn't have to drop like 90%. Even I don't want this country to be like Sri Lanka. But in a major recession it can drop 30% to 50%. Again using US as reference, during the GFC, properties dropped as much as 50%. Right now, even before an official recession, luxury homes have already dropped 30% while commercial real estate CRE some have dropped as much as 80%.

I really don't understand why Malaysians are so confident of our property market like our economy is so strong. Even China is struggling in their property market.

The stupidest comment I always here is labour and material price increase. Like people must buy property and can't rent. Rental market is hot now, any guesses why?
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i atopped buying for investment since 2015. only buy to stay for location and can reno to own taste. even then, planning to sell of at some loss now as want to move to another area and bigger unit. why sell? prop getting old, maintenance fees, price stgnant and dropped a bit from 2017 and i dont see price going up in next 10 yrs. money kept in epf also will generate returns compared to losses on this property
Chrono-Trigger
post May 5 2023, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(nxtpg @ May 5 2023, 09:17 AM)
i atopped buying for investment since 2015. only buy to stay for location and can reno to own taste. even then, planning to sell of at some  loss now as want to move to another area and bigger unit. why sell? prop getting old, maintenance fees, price stgnant and dropped a bit from 2017 and i dont see price going up in next 10 yrs. money kept in epf also will generate returns compared to losses on this property
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yes buy to stay only.

I think the property problem was due to extra loose monetary policy and low OPR in the last 10-20 years, a lot of money went into property.
icemanfx
post May 5 2023, 12:09 PM

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QUOTE(Chrono-Trigger @ May 4 2023, 11:46 PM)
too big to fail, banks profit, etc all linked to properties  like a lot....

no way government will let it fail, worst case scenario, allow foreigners to buy
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banks are too big to fail but not retailers. if banks npl is at elevated level, gomen could offload banks' npl to toxic asset management company like danaharta. not that they have not done this before.

QUOTE(thickface @ May 5 2023, 12:56 AM)
You do know that if the property price drops like what you mentioned, we are all in deep crap because it defines the country stabilization. It means your money has no value or basically useless, only able to use it in this country.

Prior to that happening, like what some people mentioned, other methods to ensure money flow keeps coming in.

This can go on and on. I believe market is good for those who survey hard and smart. Don't buy overpriced things. At the end of the day, property is either an investment or a place you stay in (emotional attachment). If investment, sure got profit or loss. If emotional attachment, just buy ni.
*
Those bought poorperly post 2014 are likely under water; only those overstretched are likely in financial distress. market sentiment may be poor but life goes on like 1997 afc.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 5 2023, 12:42 PM
ericyong
post May 5 2023, 12:33 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 3 2023, 04:05 PM)
Construction cost rise only impact newly launch or under construction units but not completed units. subsale poorperly is many times more than new launch. instead of buying overpriced new launch, buyers could choose from subsale.

until number of overhang is reduced substantially, poorperly price will stay suppressed. have price no market is syok sendiri price.
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it is true. There are many subsale properties out there which could be selling below launch/market price; this is mostly due to auctions and owners cutting loss at a steep. There are some pretty good choice too - just that subsales wise subject to stricter valuations etc when come to loan... for new launch, the end financing are already capped from developer side, so loans are generally 'easier' to get and valuations are better too.
ericyong
post May 5 2023, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(TrialGone @ May 4 2023, 09:57 AM)
Errrr.... He only explain why prop may be more expensive due to material and labour which I'm not disputing. But it will does not affect demand and supply which is a totally different thing.
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supply and demand are rather subjective - factors to consider include price range, location etc...

but in general, i would say in areas such as Klang - supply is still considered limited versus the high demands.


In PJ, supply is aplenty, but demands are also very high.

In areas such as setapak/wangsa maju area, plenty of supply - but you'll see mostly in the affordable range, and demands are still doing okay; just that people have more time to look at more choices...


If you're looking at higher end ones... demand is rather limited for high rise high end, but landed ones are still in big demand....



n different areas, different demands... if u read an OVERALL Malaysia or Klang Valley report, the overhang situation would be many.

But going into details... you'll find that those real affordable government-restricted ones, those 250k... those who wants it for investment, overqualified. those who really want it for own stay own use, qualify but cant afford... then you have the middle-range, those 450-550k.... demand are very strong, but choices also plenty. many interesting marketing gimmicks too - cash back, rebates, free reno, free ID etc etc...


one thing though, with interest rates going up, yields are not holding up as well... so rental returns could take awhile.
TrialGone
post May 5 2023, 01:28 PM

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QUOTE(ericyong @ May 5 2023, 12:43 PM)
supply and demand are rather subjective - factors to consider include price range, location etc...

but in general, i would say in areas such as Klang - supply is still considered limited versus the high demands.
In PJ, supply is aplenty, but demands are also very high.

In areas such as setapak/wangsa maju area, plenty of supply - but you'll see mostly in the affordable range, and demands are still doing okay; just that people have more time to look at more choices...
If you're looking at higher end ones... demand is rather limited for high rise high end, but landed ones are still in big demand....
n different areas, different demands... if u read an OVERALL Malaysia or Klang Valley report, the overhang situation would be many.

But going into details... you'll find that those real affordable government-restricted ones, those 250k... those who wants it for investment, overqualified. those who really want it for own stay own use, qualify but cant afford... then you have the middle-range, those 450-550k.... demand are very strong, but choices also plenty. many interesting marketing gimmicks too - cash back, rebates, free reno, free ID etc etc...
one thing though, with interest rates going up, yields are not holding up as well... so rental returns could take awhile.
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It does not matter if ur prop worth rm2mil if nobody renting or buy it. That's what I mean. So higher price is useless if u don't get profit out of it.

This post has been edited by TrialGone: May 5 2023, 01:29 PM

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