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 Will you think the property market will fall soon?, will the landed property fall in 2024?

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TSjrshow
post May 3 2023, 10:47 AM

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QUOTE(ericyong @ May 3 2023, 09:41 AM)
It is true that costs have gone up a lot.

In comparison, taking just steel into account - prices per RM1900/ton preCovid, and rose to RM3500/ton in mid2021 before hovering downwards. Today, prices are still around RM3000/ton. And that is just steel - cement, concrete, glass, aluminium have all rose way above preCovid prices.

Labour costs is also another issue. Since the lockdowns and border closures in 2020/21, many foreign workers have gone back and could not come back. Then when they were allowed to come back, the costs had shot up tremendously. An Indonesian coming into Malaysia with permit and visa would cost at least RM5,000 including levy and permits. A Bangladeshi coming in costs as much as RM18k back in 2021, and prices have come down to about RM12-14k now but it is still very expensive compared to before. A carpenter used to earn RM90-110/day preCovid - today averages at least 175-200 already.

Interest rates have gone up too, causing the cost of financing to go up.
That being said, it is undeniable that the cost of construction had gone up a lot. Most of the affordable housing that you see today selling at RM250k for a 1000sqft - those are considered a bargain steal if you can qualify and get the unit because the cost of construction for these type of housing is already RM140-150psf. Taking into account consultancy and professional fees another 10%, local authority fees plus IWK TNB Syabas etc etc another 8-10%, marketing costs of say 4-5%, the cost of development without counting the cost of land is already almost RM200psf. IF the land is in a slightly more prime area, going for RM200psf, based on a plot ratio 1:5, the gross cost per sqft is already RM40 - and with say an efficiency of 80%, the cost would be RM50 already psf for land - making it already RM250psf.

Today, land cost are very much above those figures in prime areas - some are as high as RM400-500psf for areas such as Klang, Seri Kembangan and Selayang, and exceeds RM800-1000psf for areas such as Petaling Jaya. A more middle-cost type of development would cost at least RM300-350psf, and taking similar percentages, cost of such projects would easily be RM480-500psf.
ANYWAYS, property around the world have always been known as the best hedge against inflation. If you have some spare cash, or want to invest, it would be ideal to go into real estate. Kuala Lumpur and Klang Valley has got a peculiar double-whammy dilemma - its highest and most luxury properties are going for RM1800psf averagely, which is USD400psf - making it still the cheapest in the region versus Jakarta, Bangkok and even Phnom Penh. Singapore's highest are way higher. So theres plenty of room to grow. The only thing keeping our properties from going much higher are due to Government initiatives to keep on pushing the affordable housing (especially those with subsidies). If KL's properties were to be more open, I believe our properties would be much high and the market value would be higher.
*
thanks for this detial update, but the problem is..come back to the table, is the demand in market still have?does the buyer affortable? ya...market can up what ever they like,but got buyer can afford?

A.B.D.
post May 3 2023, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(ericyong @ May 3 2023, 09:41 AM)
It is true that costs have gone up a lot.

In comparison, taking just steel into account - prices per RM1900/ton preCovid, and rose to RM3500/ton in mid2021 before hovering downwards. Today, prices are still around RM3000/ton. And that is just steel - cement, concrete, glass, aluminium have all rose way above preCovid prices.

Labour costs is also another issue. Since the lockdowns and border closures in 2020/21, many foreign workers have gone back and could not come back. Then when they were allowed to come back, the costs had shot up tremendously. An Indonesian coming into Malaysia with permit and visa would cost at least RM5,000 including levy and permits. A Bangladeshi coming in costs as much as RM18k back in 2021, and prices have come down to about RM12-14k now but it is still very expensive compared to before. A carpenter used to earn RM90-110/day preCovid - today averages at least 175-200 already.

Interest rates have gone up too, causing the cost of financing to go up.
That being said, it is undeniable that the cost of construction had gone up a lot. Most of the affordable housing that you see today selling at RM250k for a 1000sqft - those are considered a bargain steal if you can qualify and get the unit because the cost of construction for these type of housing is already RM140-150psf. Taking into account consultancy and professional fees another 10%, local authority fees plus IWK TNB Syabas etc etc another 8-10%, marketing costs of say 4-5%, the cost of development without counting the cost of land is already almost RM200psf. IF the land is in a slightly more prime area, going for RM200psf, based on a plot ratio 1:5, the gross cost per sqft is already RM40 - and with say an efficiency of 80%, the cost would be RM50 already psf for land - making it already RM250psf.

Today, land cost are very much above those figures in prime areas - some are as high as RM400-500psf for areas such as Klang, Seri Kembangan and Selayang, and exceeds RM800-1000psf for areas such as Petaling Jaya. A more middle-cost type of development would cost at least RM300-350psf, and taking similar percentages, cost of such projects would easily be RM480-500psf.
ANYWAYS, property around the world have always been known as the best hedge against inflation. If you have some spare cash, or want to invest, it would be ideal to go into real estate. Kuala Lumpur and Klang Valley has got a peculiar double-whammy dilemma - its highest and most luxury properties are going for RM1800psf averagely, which is USD400psf - making it still the cheapest in the region versus Jakarta, Bangkok and even Phnom Penh. Singapore's highest are way higher. So theres plenty of room to grow. The only thing keeping our properties from going much higher are due to Government initiatives to keep on pushing the affordable housing (especially those with subsidies). If KL's properties were to be more open, I believe our properties would be much high and the market value would be higher.
*
Thank you Eric. We are very lucky today to get your detailed insider’s info here. It helps the reader to understand current situation for property industry and market thumbup.gif
kidmad
post May 3 2023, 02:16 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 3 2023, 10:56 AM)
Thank you Eric. We are very lucky today to get your detailed insider’s info here. It helps the reader to understand current situation for property industry and market thumbup.gif
*
aiyah the nay sayer won't listen la... else the property bubble burst thread won't last until v20. Say all they want if property in crisis. same goes to their job, their ability to put food on the table.
TSjrshow
post May 3 2023, 03:54 PM

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OPR naik alr...we shall c the property price goes harder and run down
icemanfx
post May 3 2023, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(ericyong @ May 3 2023, 09:41 AM)
It is true that costs have gone up a lot.

In comparison, taking just steel into account - prices per RM1900/ton preCovid, and rose to RM3500/ton in mid2021 before hovering downwards. Today, prices are still around RM3000/ton. And that is just steel - cement, concrete, glass, aluminium have all rose way above preCovid prices.

Labour costs is also another issue. Since the lockdowns and border closures in 2020/21, many foreign workers have gone back and could not come back. Then when they were allowed to come back, the costs had shot up tremendously. An Indonesian coming into Malaysia with permit and visa would cost at least RM5,000 including levy and permits. A Bangladeshi coming in costs as much as RM18k back in 2021, and prices have come down to about RM12-14k now but it is still very expensive compared to before. A carpenter used to earn RM90-110/day preCovid - today averages at least 175-200 already.

Interest rates have gone up too, causing the cost of financing to go up.
That being said, it is undeniable that the cost of construction had gone up a lot. Most of the affordable housing that you see today selling at RM250k for a 1000sqft - those are considered a bargain steal if you can qualify and get the unit because the cost of construction for these type of housing is already RM140-150psf. Taking into account consultancy and professional fees another 10%, local authority fees plus IWK TNB Syabas etc etc another 8-10%, marketing costs of say 4-5%, the cost of development without counting the cost of land is already almost RM200psf. IF the land is in a slightly more prime area, going for RM200psf, based on a plot ratio 1:5, the gross cost per sqft is already RM40 - and with say an efficiency of 80%, the cost would be RM50 already psf for land - making it already RM250psf.

Today, land cost are very much above those figures in prime areas - some are as high as RM400-500psf for areas such as Klang, Seri Kembangan and Selayang, and exceeds RM800-1000psf for areas such as Petaling Jaya. A more middle-cost type of development would cost at least RM300-350psf, and taking similar percentages, cost of such projects would easily be RM480-500psf.
ANYWAYS, property around the world have always been known as the best hedge against inflation. If you have some spare cash, or want to invest, it would be ideal to go into real estate. Kuala Lumpur and Klang Valley has got a peculiar double-whammy dilemma - its highest and most luxury properties are going for RM1800psf averagely, which is USD400psf - making it still the cheapest in the region versus Jakarta, Bangkok and even Phnom Penh. Singapore's highest are way higher. So theres plenty of room to grow. The only thing keeping our properties from going much higher are due to Government initiatives to keep on pushing the affordable housing (especially those with subsidies). If KL's properties were to be more open, I believe our properties would be much high and the market value would be higher.
*
Construction cost rise only impact newly launch or under construction units but not completed units. subsale poorperly is many times more than new launch. instead of buying overpriced new launch, buyers could choose from subsale.

until number of overhang is reduced substantially, poorperly price will stay suppressed. have price no market is syok sendiri price.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 3 2023, 04:54 PM
icemanfx
post May 3 2023, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(jrshow @ May 3 2023, 03:54 PM)
OPR naik alr...we shall c the property price goes harder and run down
*
To most home owner/borrower, 0.25% interest rate rise is less than a family brunch on sunday, is none issue.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 3 2023, 04:55 PM
TSjrshow
post May 3 2023, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 3 2023, 04:46 PM)
To most home owner/borrower, 0.25% interest rate rise is less than a family brunch on sunday, is none issue.
*
hrmm...if in this case r u signing the 0.25% is no issue right?if in this case if goverment up 0.25 to 3.25%? mcm mana?enough ma..?not enough naikagain to 3.50%..
icemanfx
post May 3 2023, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(jrshow @ May 3 2023, 04:57 PM)
hrmm...if in this case r u signing the 0.25% is no issue right?if in this case if goverment up 0.25 to 3.25%? mcm mana?enough ma..?not enough naikagain to 3.50%..
*
Most borrower could easily compromise on or find substitute for sunday brunch at kenny hill cafe/bistro. given number of kenny hill cafe/bistro opened recently and the crowd during weekend and holiday, consumers spending is unlikely to reduce significantly by 0.5% rate rise.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 3 2023, 05:02 PM
icemanfx
post May 3 2023, 09:04 PM

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According to people in the trade; some commie poorperly were transacted recently at 20 to 30% lower than previously valued.

A.B.D.
post May 3 2023, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(jrshow @ May 3 2023, 03:54 PM)
OPR naik alr...we shall c the property price goes harder and run down
*
You monitor your target area and tell us la if drop after this
A.B.D.
post May 3 2023, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 3 2023, 09:04 PM)
According to people in the trade; some commie poorperly were transacted recently at 20 to 30% lower than previously valued.
*
After society experienced working, shopping and doing other transactions online during the long MCO, the threat from online to brick and mortar has become clearer and stronger. This makes the previous asking prices for commercial seem unrealistic now.
Residential is not threatened the same way as people can’t live online, and many main road facing residential has been getting approval for business, making it even worse for strictly commercial properties.
icemanfx
post May 3 2023, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 3 2023, 09:59 PM)
After society experienced working, shopping and doing other transactions online during the long MCO, the threat from online to brick and mortar has become clearer and stronger. This makes the previous asking prices for commercial seem unrealistic now.
Residential is not threatened the same way as people can’t live online, and many main road facing residential has been getting approval for business, making it even worse for strictly commercial properties.
*
Residential overhang couldn't be ignored.
kidmad
post May 3 2023, 11:54 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 3 2023, 09:04 PM)
According to people in the trade; some commie poorperly were transacted recently at 20 to 30% lower than previously valued.
*
yes it is. in 2019 i bought a unit at RM330k... now it's priced at RM280k only.
2nd Jan 2023 i bought another unit at around 670k transacted lower prior to 2019 at around 850k - 900k.

that's the thing right in any kind of investment at least for me property is part of my investment portfolio there will be win/lose. no point if it's all talk and you do not know how to value the prospective appreciation value for any form of investment. I've been collecting dividend from REITS/blue-chip stocks since 2017 boom 1 pandemic it was flat across 30% lost. So what's yr point of view?

when times are good you don't buy when times are BAD you shouldn't be investing in one at all. if the property market fall we are talking about you and others will be losing job. KLSE index will be way lower than to be hovering around 1500 points. so when property market drop so? will you buy? Such thread will just continue on and i'll be here saying the same thing again in 2030, 2040 till the day i have multiple fully paid property milking from renters.
icemanfx
post May 4 2023, 12:05 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ May 3 2023, 11:54 PM)
yes it is. in 2019 i bought a unit at RM330k... now it's priced at RM280k only.
2nd Jan 2023 i bought another unit at around 670k transacted lower prior to 2019 at around 850k - 900k.

that's the thing right in any kind of investment at least for me property is part of my investment portfolio there will be win/lose. no point if it's all talk and you do not know how to value the prospective appreciation value for any form of investment. I've been collecting dividend from REITS/blue-chip stocks since 2017 boom 1 pandemic it was flat across 30% lost. So what's yr point of view?

when times are good you don't buy when times are BAD you shouldn't be investing in one at all. if the property market fall we are talking about you and others will be losing job. KLSE index will be way lower than to be hovering around 1500 points. so when property market drop so? will you buy? Such thread will just continue on and i'll be here saying the same thing again in 2030, 2040 till the day i have multiple fully paid property milking from renters.
*
If you know me long enough, may know i advocate buy when blood is knee deep on the floor. you should also know, i don't share what i bought or buy, but would voice what should not to buy.

poorperly is not the only investment option available.

kidmad
post May 4 2023, 12:14 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 4 2023, 12:05 AM)
If you know me long enough, may know i advocate buy when blood is knee deep on the floor. you should also know, i don't share what i bought or buy, but would voice what should not to buy.

poorperly is not the only investment option available.
*
that's shit talk in 11 years right? not sharing your investment what you buy/bought just sharing shit load of negative view. What's your ill intention then? Meanwhile i'm sharing everything i've ever invested in my 13 years journey since 2010. I've gain some, i've lost some. Since 2010 6 property purchased, sold 3. made some money out of 2 while 1 was selling at break even. Those who had gone through debates with me since 2010 would even know which are the units i purchased at what price and sold at what price.

again i'm repeating this when blood is knee deep on the floor. you are on the floor. you won't have chance to buy any shit anymore.
icemanfx
post May 4 2023, 12:37 AM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ May 4 2023, 12:14 AM)
that's shit talk in 11 years right? not sharing your investment what you buy/bought just sharing shit load of negative view. What's your ill intention then? Meanwhile i'm sharing everything i've ever invested in my 13 years journey since 2010. I've gain some, i've lost some. Since 2010 6 property purchased, sold 3. made some money out of 2 while 1 was selling at break even. Those who had gone through debates with me since 2010 would even know which are the units i purchased at what price and sold at what price.

again i'm repeating this when blood is knee deep on the floor. you are on the floor. you won't have chance to buy any shit anymore.
*
My posting objective is to stop ignorant to fall into bbb/uuu trap.

as said numerous times, poorperly is not the only investment option available.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 4 2023, 01:01 AM
Drian
post May 4 2023, 04:27 AM

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QUOTE(ericyong @ May 3 2023, 09:41 AM)
It is true that costs have gone up a lot.

In comparison, taking just steel into account - prices per RM1900/ton preCovid, and rose to RM3500/ton in mid2021 before hovering downwards. Today, prices are still around RM3000/ton. And that is just steel - cement, concrete, glass, aluminium have all rose way above preCovid prices.

Labour costs is also another issue. Since the lockdowns and border closures in 2020/21, many foreign workers have gone back and could not come back. Then when they were allowed to come back, the costs had shot up tremendously. An Indonesian coming into Malaysia with permit and visa would cost at least RM5,000 including levy and permits. A Bangladeshi coming in costs as much as RM18k back in 2021, and prices have come down to about RM12-14k now but it is still very expensive compared to before. A carpenter used to earn RM90-110/day preCovid - today averages at least 175-200 already.

Interest rates have gone up too, causing the cost of financing to go up.
That being said, it is undeniable that the cost of construction had gone up a lot. Most of the affordable housing that you see today selling at RM250k for a 1000sqft - those are considered a bargain steal if you can qualify and get the unit because the cost of construction for these type of housing is already RM140-150psf. Taking into account consultancy and professional fees another 10%, local authority fees plus IWK TNB Syabas etc etc another 8-10%, marketing costs of say 4-5%, the cost of development without counting the cost of land is already almost RM200psf. IF the land is in a slightly more prime area, going for RM200psf, based on a plot ratio 1:5, the gross cost per sqft is already RM40 - and with say an efficiency of 80%, the cost would be RM50 already psf for land - making it already RM250psf.

Today, land cost are very much above those figures in prime areas - some are as high as RM400-500psf for areas such as Klang, Seri Kembangan and Selayang, and exceeds RM800-1000psf for areas such as Petaling Jaya. A more middle-cost type of development would cost at least RM300-350psf, and taking similar percentages, cost of such projects would easily be RM480-500psf.
ANYWAYS, property around the world have always been known as the best hedge against inflation. If you have some spare cash, or want to invest, it would be ideal to go into real estate. Kuala Lumpur and Klang Valley has got a peculiar double-whammy dilemma - its highest and most luxury properties are going for RM1800psf averagely, which is USD400psf - making it still the cheapest in the region versus Jakarta, Bangkok and even Phnom Penh. Singapore's highest are way higher. So theres plenty of room to grow. The only thing keeping our properties from going much higher are due to Government initiatives to keep on pushing the affordable housing (especially those with subsidies). If KL's properties were to be more open, I believe our properties would be much high and the market value would be higher.
*
Technically , property did not hedge against inflation in Malaysia from 2015 up to now.
A.B.D.
post May 4 2023, 09:13 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 3 2023, 10:10 PM)
Residential overhang couldn't be ignored.
*
This is about location, supply and pricing. Most people are not involved and oblivious to it. It certainly can’t crash the prime market. And government has been helping with HOC that kept extending. The people involved are lucky to get help and I would say this government action is unfairly good for property market in general.
icemanfx
post May 4 2023, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 4 2023, 09:13 AM)
This is about location, supply and pricing. Most people are not involved and oblivious to it. It certainly can’t crash the prime market. And government has been helping with HOC that kept extending. The people involved are lucky to get help and I would say this government action is unfairly good for property market in general.
*
Where and how many are in the prime market? 10%? What about the balance sub prime?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: May 4 2023, 09:48 AM
TrialGone
post May 4 2023, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 3 2023, 04:46 PM)
To most home owner/borrower, 0.25% interest rate rise is less than a family brunch on sunday, is none issue.
*
Errrr.... It doesn't depend on opr directly. It depends on bank interest rate that's adjusted based on opr. And it's not mere 0.25%.

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