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 Will you think the property market will fall soon?, will the landed property fall in 2024?

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TrialGone
post May 4 2023, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 3 2023, 10:56 AM)
Thank you Eric. We are very lucky today to get your detailed insider’s info here. It helps the reader to understand current situation for property industry and market thumbup.gif
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Errrr.... He only explain why prop may be more expensive due to material and labour which I'm not disputing. But it will does not affect demand and supply which is a totally different thing.

This post has been edited by TrialGone: May 4 2023, 10:00 AM
A.B.D.
post May 4 2023, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(Drian @ May 4 2023, 04:27 AM)
Technically , property did not hedge against inflation in Malaysia from 2015  up to now.
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Property price increase is not linear, and definitely not the same for everywhere and every type. You picked 2015 which is after the super boom due to DIBS so prices have to level out over the following years.
Anyway 2015 until now is at least 84 months worth of rental! In KV that is easily RM 6 figures foregone if one didn’t invest in a well located rental property back in 2015.
A.B.D.
post May 4 2023, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 4 2023, 09:34 AM)
Where and how many are in the prime market? 10%? What about the balance sub prime?
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Life goes on. They can either wait or cut losses, but at least they have a property and gained experience. What does one do after buying paper investments or gold at wrong timing? Don’t they have to take responsibility for their decision?
A.B.D.
post May 4 2023, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(TrialGone @ May 4 2023, 09:57 AM)
Errrr.... He only explain why prop may be more expensive due to material and labour which I'm not disputing. But it will does not affect demand and supply which is a totally different thing.
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MCO time no demand, now got already thumbup.gif
More launches now.
-mystery-
post May 4 2023, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(ericyong @ May 3 2023, 09:41 AM)
It is true that costs have gone up a lot.

In comparison, taking just steel into account - prices per RM1900/ton preCovid, and rose to RM3500/ton in mid2021 before hovering downwards. Today, prices are still around RM3000/ton. And that is just steel - cement, concrete, glass, aluminium have all rose way above preCovid prices.

Labour costs is also another issue. Since the lockdowns and border closures in 2020/21, many foreign workers have gone back and could not come back. Then when they were allowed to come back, the costs had shot up tremendously. An Indonesian coming into Malaysia with permit and visa would cost at least RM5,000 including levy and permits. A Bangladeshi coming in costs as much as RM18k back in 2021, and prices have come down to about RM12-14k now but it is still very expensive compared to before. A carpenter used to earn RM90-110/day preCovid - today averages at least 175-200 already.

Interest rates have gone up too, causing the cost of financing to go up.
That being said, it is undeniable that the cost of construction had gone up a lot. Most of the affordable housing that you see today selling at RM250k for a 1000sqft - those are considered a bargain steal if you can qualify and get the unit because the cost of construction for these type of housing is already RM140-150psf. Taking into account consultancy and professional fees another 10%, local authority fees plus IWK TNB Syabas etc etc another 8-10%, marketing costs of say 4-5%, the cost of development without counting the cost of land is already almost RM200psf. IF the land is in a slightly more prime area, going for RM200psf, based on a plot ratio 1:5, the gross cost per sqft is already RM40 - and with say an efficiency of 80%, the cost would be RM50 already psf for land - making it already RM250psf.

Today, land cost are very much above those figures in prime areas - some are as high as RM400-500psf for areas such as Klang, Seri Kembangan and Selayang, and exceeds RM800-1000psf for areas such as Petaling Jaya. A more middle-cost type of development would cost at least RM300-350psf, and taking similar percentages, cost of such projects would easily be RM480-500psf.
ANYWAYS, property around the world have always been known as the best hedge against inflation. If you have some spare cash, or want to invest, it would be ideal to go into real estate. Kuala Lumpur and Klang Valley has got a peculiar double-whammy dilemma - its highest and most luxury properties are going for RM1800psf averagely, which is USD400psf - making it still the cheapest in the region versus Jakarta, Bangkok and even Phnom Penh. Singapore's highest are way higher. So theres plenty of room to grow. The only thing keeping our properties from going much higher are due to Government initiatives to keep on pushing the affordable housing (especially those with subsidies). If KL's properties were to be more open, I believe our properties would be much high and the market value would be higher.
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thanks fot detail analysis, have you work in construction related field? I don't think most people are equipped with this kind of knowledge

contagiouseddie
post May 4 2023, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 4 2023, 11:22 AM)
MCO time no demand, now got already thumbup.gif
More launches now.
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MCO time was the cheapest in the modern time. Bought the transaction record and can see a differences between RM100K-200K price different for RM1M-2M properties range.
nxtpg
post May 4 2023, 11:32 AM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 4 2023, 09:58 AM)
Property price increase is not linear, and definitely not the same for everywhere and every type. You picked 2015 which is after the super boom due to DIBS so prices have to level out over the following years.
Anyway 2015 until now is at least 84 months worth of rental! In KV that is easily RM 6 figures foregone if one didn’t invest in a well located rental property back in 2015.
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2015 was gst year. i sold my props before gst. buyer afraid price will shoot up. ... the true fact, 8 years after, price dropped a bit n remained stagnant.
A.B.D.
post May 4 2023, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(-mystery- @ May 4 2023, 11:25 AM)
thanks fot detail analysis, have you work in construction related field? I don't think most people are equipped with this kind of knowledge
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He is MD of Crest Builder
whphon
post May 4 2023, 11:35 AM

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is on the process of falling
A.B.D.
post May 4 2023, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(nxtpg @ May 4 2023, 11:32 AM)
2015 was gst year. i sold my props before gst. buyer afraid price will shoot up. ... the true fact, 8 years after, price dropped a bit n remained stagnant.
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Congrats. After selling what you invested in?
icemanfx
post May 4 2023, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 4 2023, 10:18 AM)
Life goes on. They can either wait or cut losses, but at least they have a property and gained experience. What does one do after buying paper investments or gold at wrong timing? Don’t they have to take responsibility for their decision?
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Leverage amplify profit as well as losses. As most bought poorperly with leverage, many are under water.

TrialGone
post May 4 2023, 01:42 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 4 2023, 11:22 AM)
MCO time no demand, now got already thumbup.gif
More launches now.
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..... If u say so. Lol

Like I mentioned before I don't really care if pipu bought not knowing what's the current situation. It in fact just accelerating the downfall. Doesn't matter what I said.

This post has been edited by TrialGone: May 4 2023, 01:45 PM
A.B.D.
post May 4 2023, 02:30 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 4 2023, 12:43 PM)
Leverage amplify profit as well as losses. As most bought poorperly with leverage, many are under water.
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Might be a good move to give it some time as some areas do improve with time.
A.B.D.
post May 4 2023, 03:26 PM

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QUOTE(TrialGone @ May 4 2023, 01:42 PM)
..... If u say so. Lol

Like I mentioned before I don't really care if pipu bought not knowing what's the current situation. It in fact just accelerating  the downfall. Doesn't matter what I said.
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ehh how can i say so? i just trust developers and banks have done the research. they are back to launching more projects now that it's post pandemic and spending multi millions.

you have money in banks and epf or not? if yes, you better pray they don't lose your money in the property and construction industry.

but one thing i agree is that it doesn't matter what you said or i said, our words have no effect on the property market rclxms.gif
clyeoh1980
post May 4 2023, 03:45 PM

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wait till the green coup take over the state government, and see how the property industry will perform. Nowadays, peoples are suffering with daily living expenses, food and daily essential are so expensive. With recent OPR hike, the situation worsen and they had to fork out more money to pay their loan. Lots of peoples are unhappy and fake up with the current administration. i strongly believe that there will many seat win by the green coup in up-coming election. by then, the property industry will be change fundalmentally.

BL98
post May 4 2023, 03:51 PM

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Nop. Waiting for durian falling better.
clyeoh1980
post May 4 2023, 03:54 PM

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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/art...se-prices-drop/
icemanfx
post May 4 2023, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 4 2023, 03:26 PM)
ehh how can i say so? i just trust developers and banks have done the research. they are back to launching more projects now that it's post pandemic and spending multi millions.

you have money in banks and epf or not? if yes, you better pray they don't lose your money in the property and construction industry.

but one thing i agree is that it doesn't matter what you said or i said, our words have no effect on the property market  rclxms.gif
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Most developers bought land with loan or bond, holding land incur loan interest. The longer they hold vacant land, the higher their cost. Hence, developer need to develop. Besides, plc need to show revenue.

QUOTE(clyeoh1980 @ May 4 2023, 03:45 PM)
wait till the green coup take over the state government, and see how the property industry will perform. Nowadays, peoples are suffering with daily living expenses, food and daily essential are so expensive. With recent OPR hike, the situation worsen and they had to fork out more money to pay their loan. Lots of peoples are unhappy and fake up with the current administration. i strongly believe that there will many seat win by the green coup in up-coming election. by then, the property industry will be change fundalmentally.
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Whatever it is, pmx and people will face the economic reality.

QUOTE(BL98 @ May 4 2023, 03:51 PM)
Nop. Waiting for durian falling better.
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If durian tree flowered and have fruits, for certain durian will drop eventually.
clyeoh1980
post May 4 2023, 04:36 PM

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look like the house price index is going up for the past 25 years..so the price eventually will go up only, never come down.
clyeoh1980
post May 4 2023, 04:43 PM

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https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Ma...a/Price-History

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