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TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(Suicidal Guy @ Oct 31 2020, 02:04 PM)
Hi @Boon3

Thanks for asking and thanks for your input.

user posted image
user posted image

On 20th, 15 min chart already showing warning signal. 15min chart making new low with increased volume. Daily close shows bottoming tail but volume is still not alarming. Usually there will be a rebound. So a trader would monitor 15min chart the next day to see if there is a rebound, and see if the rebound is weak or strong (consider to keep if rebound is strong). On 21st the next day, it is making new lows again with higher volume consecutively with no rebound. That would be the signal to exit. Daily chart shows increase in volume. If not monitoring the price on that day itself, the next day on 22nd would be the chance to exit.

Also, the the subsequent rebound seen on daily chart from 26th onward is with low volume showing that it is weak. That would be the second chance to exit.

Most of the time, a stock with public interest have a rebound after a big sell off. That is the chance to exit if things are not right.
*
Hope you understand why Titan is such a blacklist stock.


TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 03:37 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Sep 25 2020, 09:23 AM)
Note to ownself.... buybacks + ESOS + ED disposal of shares...

Some of the recent ESOS exercised was highlighted post #3122
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


as can be seen the big ones, the ESOS issued at an extremely cheap prices.... below 1.70.....
So following days showed one of the Eexcutive Director, Lim Cheng Guan, disposed 380,000 shares!

and yesterday, it was announced the very same ED, Lim Cheng Guan, exercised some 300,000 shares (no price was disclosed but you can bet the exercise price was extremely cheap!)

Ahem!!!

That was some fast profit by disposing the shares and then exercise back some very cheaply priced ESOS!!

See.... that's fine. Fine by all means. Everyone does it in the corporate world. They get rewarded with cheap ESOS as a reward for the years of hardwork...

but ..... when this is done when the company is actively doing buybacks.... it gets muddied very fast and all sort of accusations will be made....

see why I had said when the company does massive buybacks, it's gotta to be dead certain that none of these shit is going on!

and yeah... huge chunk of convertible bonds were converted to shares during this period too (check the conversion price? tongue.gif ... so nice the buyback had pushed the stock price so high! )....  shakehead.gif
But.... like they say.... the rising share price means all these matters not!

LOL! Share price going up... see nothing, know nothing, do nothing.  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
*
OMG.

Kathy finally picked up on this issue but I wished she had done more homework and she would realise when Lim had also sold the previous month, the company was also actively buying back its own shares.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-...hares-sale-june

QUOTE
Top Glove’s latest filing with Bursa Malaysia shows that its executive director Lim Cheong Guan sold 200,000 shares at RM8.79 on Monday (Oct 26), and 30,000 shares at RM8.98 on the following day.


And then this part...

QUOTE
While Top Glove’s director was selling shares, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) was doing the opposite. The provident fund has bought an additional 51.35 million shares, raising its stake in Top Glove to 5.67% as at Oct 27, compared with 5.05% as at Sept 21.
What is so conflicting is that the big boss sits on the EPF board. A real conflict of interest when EPF is actively buying Top Glove shares.

This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 31 2020, 03:39 PM
TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 04:09 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 31 2020, 03:37 PM)
What is so conflicting is that the big boss sits on the EPF board. A real conflict of interest when EPF is actively buying Top Glove shares.
Posted this b4....

QUOTE
But anyway... for this EPF and TG .... I am so disappointed to read EPF buying up shares in TG.

This is a huge NO NO!

It's a situation created because the boss sits on EPF board, which means the conflict of interest issue arises! (this was mentioned casually b4 see post #3024 )

Everything is searchable in the net... really. tongue.gif

Search the phrase 'epf board conflict of interest'

https://newmalaysiatimes.com/2018/12/04/naj...ct-of-interest/

This part... The MSWG released a Message From CEO in the Weekly Newsletter dated November 16, 2018 ( http://www.mswg.org.my/newsletters/mswg-we...er-2018-english )

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


* and of course ... TG related https://newmalaysiatimes.com/2018/11/13/rm8...intees-company/ ***

It is a conflict of interest when directors of Public Listed Companies (PLCs) sit on boards (or committees) of institutional investors, who in turn have shareholdings in the said PLC, from which that director comes from.

That's the issue..... this is simply unacceptable in the investment community, where the conflict of interest is such a huge no-no...


And then the timing of the acquisition ....

Again I am stressing the point... when a listed company do buyback, they need to be absolutely sure nothing coincides with the buybacks....
And here we have TG doing huge buybacks...
and then the conflicts.... large ESOS stake are granted listing during this time, huge chunks of TG convertible bonds are converted into ordinary shares during this period... both which carries a significant low cost, which means ESOS shares or the bond shares could be sold for a nice chunk of profit .... and then you have one of the Executive Director selling 350,000 shares (which is not a lot but the value is more than the 2 million!) ... and now ... coincides with EPF buying TG shares???
and remember the buyback on the 11th Sep, which clearly drove the stock so much higher....

so much conflict...... how la?

IF ..... someone stands up.... and accuses TG of blatantly propping up the shares  ..... do you think the accusation is valid?
abcn1n
post Oct 31 2020, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 29 2020, 02:27 PM)
Update SUNREIT :

DPU For FY 2020 = 7.33 sens

SUNREIT Yield : 0.733/ 1.43 = 5.12%
Current eFD promo rate : 2.30 %
Current 10 Yrs MGS yield : 2.63 %

Latest QR result:

user posted image
DPU drop-> REIT price drop. The golden rule.

Let says one invested in SUNREIT during 19th May 2020 ,with price 1.55, one will currently now sitting at loss -9.2% 8% typo

Some of the highlight in the latest QR :

user posted image

user posted image

user posted image

Borrowing increased too, for the acquisition of Sunway Pinnacle  :

user posted image

user posted image

With current climate of prolonged global low interest rate environment, REIT will be the place for those yield chasing pension funds / institutional funds. Take a look at the largest 30 shareholders of REIT, mostly are those fund houses. A few % in yield different means almost nothing to individual investor, but for large institutional fund houses, we're talking about millions, or hundred of thousands perhaps?

user posted image

user posted image

However as an individual investor, the bet, or should i say investment strategy still remains, is to bet on its recovery. Here are some questions to ask ourself before investing in sunreit.

- Why SUNREIT?
- What is my expectation out of SUNREIT?
- How do I react if the price of SUNREIT drop further?
- Can the properties of SUNREIT earn me more DPU for years to come?
- When will be the recovery?
- What if it never recover?

icon_question.gif
*
Am currrently holding Sunreit at a loss. Will continue to hold it as one day the pandemic will be over, then price will rise back, hopefully to at least my BE price. Meanwhile collect dividend.

Most important question to ask is : Will pandemic be over. Answer is yes. Whether Sunreit can manage /grow its DPU will depend on how good its management is.


TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(abcn1n @ Oct 31 2020, 04:12 PM)
Am currrently holding Sunreit at a loss. Will continue to hold it as one day the pandemic will be over, then price will rise back, hopefully to at least my BE price. Meanwhile collect dividend.

Most important question to ask is : Will pandemic be over. Answer is yes. Whether Sunreit can manage /grow its DPU will depend on how good its management is.
*
Have you consider the risk in your strategy for Sunreit?

Ok... here's my 3 sen input....

1. Meanwhile collect dividend....

Dividend has been changed from quarterly to semi annually.

And the dividends has shrunk a lot....


user posted image

See how drastic the decline in dividend payout?
Last payout was only 0.9 sen.
And it's only be paid twice a year. Instead of 4 times.

So you have to asked yourself, is the current and the future DPU be enough?
isn't it like small change?
will the dpu cover the drop in share price?

Yes the share price will drop.
You do realise that it is proven that once the DPU declines, the share price will fall.

So adding both together, the big risk question is... how much the dividend can compensate for the drop in share price?

2. Here is the chart.

The chart will be needed. Yeah... one can argue that since it's REITS, them blardy charts is redundant.

But in terms of risk ...... shouldn't ask yourself, how low the stock might fall?
yes, you need to consider the worst case scenario .... so that you can answer the question, how much dividend can compensate the drop in share price?

this is the chart...

user posted image

what do I see?

1. The beautiful long term trend had been clearly broken since March 2020.

* think of the reasoning and logic behind the fall. The MCO was activated. It's a pandemic. What will be the worst hit sectors? Travel, retail and entertainment related. With MCO, the malls will be badly hit. With the pandemic, the travel industry is dead. The hotel industry will be hammered *

2. the bias of the stock is clearly to the downside.....

3. What do I see?

I see acres of real estate in the chart on the downside!!!

ie if the fall continues... it could get real ugly.

Have you consider the risk of the stock falling to 1.30 or even 1 buck in the near future?


**** ah.... not saying it will fall that low. But this is your risk assessment. You got to ask yourself... if it's ok to see the stock fall so low and collect ultra low dividend in the process? ****


This is what I will consider if I am holding Sunreit.



and yeah... I am a trader and I could be very wrong in my thought process.



abcn1n
post Oct 31 2020, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 31 2020, 06:15 PM)
Have you consider the risk in your strategy for Sunreit?

Ok... here's my 3 sen input....

1. Meanwhile collect dividend....

Dividend has been changed from quarterly to semi annually.

And the dividends has shrunk a lot....


user posted image

See how drastic the decline in dividend payout?
Last payout was only 0.9 sen.
And it's only be paid twice a year. Instead of 4 times.

So you have to asked yourself, is the current and the future DPU be enough?
isn't it like small change?
will the dpu cover the drop in share price?

Yes the share price will drop.
You do realise that it is proven that once the DPU declines, the share price will fall.

So adding both together, the big risk question is... how much the dividend can compensate for the drop in share price?

2.  Here is the chart.

The chart will be needed. Yeah... one can argue that since it's REITS, them blardy charts is redundant.

But in terms of risk ...... shouldn't ask yourself, how low the stock might fall?
yes, you need to consider the worst case scenario .... so that you can answer the question, how much dividend can compensate the drop in share price?

this is the chart...

user posted image

what do I see?

1. The beautiful long term trend had been clearly broken since March 2020.

* think of the reasoning and logic behind the fall. The MCO was activated. It's a pandemic. What will be the worst hit sectors? Travel, retail and entertainment related. With MCO, the malls will be badly hit. With the pandemic, the travel industry is dead. The hotel industry will be hammered *

2. the bias of the stock is clearly to the downside.....

3. What do I see? 

I see acres of real estate in the chart on the downside!!!

ie if the fall continues... it could get real ugly.

Have you consider the risk of the stock falling to 1.30 or even 1 buck in the near future?
**** ah.... not saying it will fall that low. But this is your risk assessment.  You got to ask yourself... if it's ok to see the stock fall so low and collect ultra low dividend in the process? ****
This is what I will consider if I am holding Sunreit.
and yeah...  I am a trader and I could be very wrong in my thought process.
*
Thanks for sharing your view. My view below:

Dividend is certainly pathetic currently. But I do expect it to pick up once the pandemic is over. If it doesn't pick up, then the management is doing a lousy job. Then I will have to reconsider my investment as fundamentally something has changed (ie management's ability not good anymore). When dividend picks up, pandemic over, then the share price which has dropped will rise up again. So basically the 'real loss' is the lower dividend during this time period. Unless of course, I am able to find better investments during this period (but that nobody knows)

If I were to sell it now, I will lose between 10-15%. And I have to find another alternative trade for the $. Now, if I haven't bought yet but thinking of buying---well, of course I wouldn't be interested. Just looking at the graph, already no interest.

The big worry is if there is a 'market recession' (economically, the world is in recession but because of huge liquidity, money printing and ultra low interest rate, market doesn't reflect it), then the price may not return back to my BE point ever or take too long a period to do so.

This post has been edited by abcn1n: Oct 31 2020, 06:52 PM
TSBoon3
post Oct 31 2020, 07:04 PM

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Heard about suggestions that with the mega profit, TopGun will be out hunting for asset.

Well, if that's the case, perhaps one should review what transpired will the Aspion glove purchase.

Let me reproduce what I had written... post #2252

QUOTE
Just recently, there's that Aspion scandal...

So TopGun bought Aspion gloves (they do surgical gloves) from Adventa. Price was 1.3 billion.

After the acquisition, TopGun announced the shocker. They claimed that the inventory, plant and machinery was overstated. In short, TopGun overpaid by 640million.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-...rgical%20gloves.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/turk...-buyers-remorse

so many issues/questions on how a company like TopGun can overpay by so much.

for example ... frm Dali:  http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2018/0...cquisition.html

Quote:
QUOTE
Who were the advisors for Top Glove?
What actually did they advised?
Who did the due diligence?
Was it a limited due diligence, if so, there should be clawback, e.g. staggered payments till full due diligence is done.
Why was full sum paid prior to a full due diligence?
Was it too rushed?
If so, why the rush?
Where was the board's view in the scheme of things?
Were the advisors well versed with billion ringgit acquisitions?
Where was the due diligence?
Who were the accountants for the private company beforehand?
How did they not qualify the financials before?
1.3 billion ACQUISTION hor... directors all tidur meh? Did they overpay? Or did Adventa cheated by overstating the accounts? rolleyes.gif shakehead.gif

So they then sued Adventa for 715 million.
Logical mah...

And apparently Adventa counter sued.... lol... what drama..

What happened next was even mind blowing for me... both parties, TopGun and Adventa settled....

but the amount settled was only 245 million.

Macam mana ni?

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-...pute-settlement

The math somehow doesn't sound right to me... over pay by 640 million. Sued for 715 million. Settle for 245 million.
End of the drama, TopGun still overpayed by a whopping 395 million!!!!

TopGun board of directors all ok with it meh?
Press like theEdge had called it Turkey of the year... and TopGun settled for so little?
... and yeah... got conspiracy rumours lo.....

and they were other comments ... such as ...

https://newmalaysiatimes.com/2020/02/19/top...m-shareholders/

See? Company like TopGun got its multi million issue....
Think about it.... what if Top Gun made another 'Aspion' purchase?


squarepilot
post Nov 1 2020, 10:18 AM

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Premium Reits biggrin.gif
user posted image

Industrial Reits smile.gif
user posted image

The not so good ones console.gif
user posted image
AVFAN
post Nov 1 2020, 10:42 AM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Nov 1 2020, 10:18 AM)
Premium Reits biggrin.gif

Industrial Reits smile.gif

The not so good ones console.gif

*
that's the truth... this reit observation is pretty much the same all over the world.

industrial, logistics, data centers doing well.

retail malls, commercial offices, v poor.... some will likely close shop like some hotels.

until the pandemic change course, trend will remain.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 1 2020, 10:49 AM
squarepilot
post Nov 1 2020, 11:40 AM

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Ok. this looks interesting. testing support level

user posted image
TSBoon3
post Nov 1 2020, 01:22 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Nov 1 2020, 10:18 AM)
Premium Reits biggrin.gif
user posted image
rolleyes.gif

Anyway, let's look at your premium reit, IGBReit.

*** Smurfs do correct me if possible ***

This is IGBReit (your premium Reit) ....

user posted image

Those buying above rm2 since last year... they are now 'losing' money (despite getting their dividends).


user posted image

IGBReit closed on Friday at 1.67... it's recent high was 1.90.

If it's premium, why is there sign that it looks like IGBReit could break down lower?

rolleyes.gif


Now the point we are highlighting is that lower DPU will lead to lower share price.

IGB Reit share is going lower.... so is reflecting the fact that DPU is going lower?


user posted image

user posted image


How?

See how the lower DPU is sending your PREMIUM reit lower?

rolleyes.gif rolleyes.gif rolleyes.gif
squarepilot
post Nov 1 2020, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 1 2020, 01:22 PM)
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «
It's now always rain and storm in IGB reits. when Covid issues is resolved, it will go back to it's glorious day nod.gif
well unless they inject mid valley JB into IGB reits, that will create another different story

so.. assuming we as trader, we look at support.

what support does IGB Reits have
psychological support - checked
share price is at support level

fanboy support - checked
Do you think uncle aunty, UT fund and their mother (IGBB) reduce stake in IGB? yes but not much

On the reason why i do support elderly opinion of investing in Reits
- FD gives much lower returns than Reits
- Reits have income payout policy
- Reits are inflation best friend

then comes to trading Reits, advisable? good to go?
No rclxs0.gif

but if you ask me where do i put my spare money for retirement? keep in it bank? No. Reits is a better option
trade my retirement money in growth stocks? No. It's too risky until i master some of sure win technique in trading

but that's just me. I was once a very passive investor (buy KLCI Component stocks). but i'm venturing into mid to long term trading. and while i'm learning it. might as well park some money in Reits?
TSBoon3
post Nov 1 2020, 04:56 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Nov 1 2020, 03:06 PM)
It's now always rain and storm in IGB reits. when Covid issues is resolved, it will go back to it's glorious day nod.gif
well unless they inject mid valley JB into IGB reits, that will create another different story

so.. assuming we as trader, we look at support.

what support does IGB Reits have
psychological support - checked
share price is at support level

fanboy support - checked
Do you think uncle aunty, UT fund and their mother (IGBB) reduce stake in IGB? yes but not much

On the reason why i do support elderly opinion of investing in Reits
- FD gives much lower returns than Reits
- Reits have income payout policy
- Reits are inflation best friend

then comes to trading Reits, advisable? good to go?
No rclxs0.gif

but if you ask me where do i put my spare money for retirement? keep in it bank? No. Reits is a better option
trade my retirement money in growth stocks? No. It's too risky until i master some of sure win technique in trading

but that's just me. I was once a very passive investor (buy KLCI Component stocks). but i'm venturing into mid to long term trading. and while i'm learning it. might as well park some money in Reits?
*
Okay....

your main reason(s) to buy is ....

1. C19 will be resolved..... one day. (what if the one day is far longer than you expected? time is the enemy of a struggling biz too)
2. it pays more than FD. ( LOL! ... EPF pays more. tongue.gif .... but what's the use cause DPU is declining... and as long as it declines .. the stock will get hammered)

well...... you already stated your strong opinion on it ..... all I can and will say..... is best luck.

Mark this post down.... Bookmark it .....

comeback next year... same time..... see if the decision to buy around 1.67 (1.60 la) is a wise move or not...

thumbsup.gif




squarepilot
post Nov 1 2020, 05:17 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 1 2020, 04:56 PM)
Okay....

your main reason(s) to buy is ....

1. C19 will be resolved..... one day.  (what if the one day is far longer than you expected? time is the enemy of a struggling biz too)
2. it pays more than FD. ( LOL! ... EPF pays more. tongue.gif .... but what's the use cause DPU is declining... and as long as it declines .. the stock will get hammered)

well...... you already stated your strong opinion on it ..... all I can and will say..... is best luck.

Mark this post down.... Bookmark it .....

comeback next year... same time..... see if the decision to buy around 1.67 (1.60 la) is a wise move or not...

thumbsup.gif
*
laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

1 year too short for this kind of investment. if you ask me, 3-5 years is about right. Reits are slow...

1 year time frame, do trading better lah biggrin.gif
Me too also starting something on trading... pick up some skill first

i'm not sure whether it's just me or many who do like this too

If i have 100k of cash equivalent asset. I will segregate only 30% max on trading, while 70% is on more stable investment like FD, Reits, Infra.

i can't comprehend on how would one put 100% into trading without considering safety factor
TSBoon3
post Nov 1 2020, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(squarepilot @ Nov 1 2020, 05:17 PM)
laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif

1 year too short for this kind of investment. if you ask me, 3-5 years is about right. Reits are slow...

1 year time frame, do trading better lah biggrin.gif
Me too also starting something on trading... pick up some skill first

i'm not sure whether it's just me or many who do like this too

If i have 100k of cash equivalent asset. I will segregate only 30% max on trading, while 70% is on more stable investment like FD, Reits, Infra.

i can't comprehend on how would one put 100% into trading without considering safety factor
*
One year to assess your current reasoning la. doh.gif

Or if you want, you can come back 5 years later.


If right, good lo.
If wrong.. these 5 years.. cannot claim back 1. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Nov 1 2020, 06:46 PM
Smurfs
post Nov 1 2020, 06:54 PM

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Just becareful of "endowment effect"..

Sometime traders/ investor are not aware of this "endowment effect" is actually steering their thoughts unconsciously...
squarepilot
post Nov 2 2020, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 1 2020, 06:44 PM)
One year to assess your current reasoning la. doh.gif

Or if you want, you can come back 5 years later.
If right, good lo.
If wrong.. these 5 years.. cannot claim back 1. laugh.gif
*
hardly go burst i guess? biggrin.gif
diversification is the key word i guess for investment
i would predict another downward trend of MYR
besides Reits, any other method to hedge on?

user posted image

user posted image

This post has been edited by squarepilot: Nov 2 2020, 12:01 AM
TSBoon3
post Nov 2 2020, 08:19 AM

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QUOTE(Smurfs @ Nov 1 2020, 06:54 PM)
Just becareful of "endowment effect"..

Sometime traders/ investor are not aware of this "endowment effect" is actually steering their thoughts unconsciously...
*
Good one!!

thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by Boon3: Nov 2 2020, 08:19 AM
TSBoon3
post Nov 2 2020, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 28 2020, 09:11 AM)
The gogo super tech stocks of 2000 is roaring again ...... some 20 years later ....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif

user posted image

user posted image
*
here we go .... again....

user posted image


spring onion
post Nov 2 2020, 07:54 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 2 2020, 03:49 PM)
here we go .... again....

user posted image
*
Wow. More than 100% gain in 6 month

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