Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 BWC

views
     
abcn1n
post Oct 7 2020, 02:31 AM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,379 posts

Joined: Sep 2017
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2020, 04:34 PM)
Really got to say I certainly do not agree with your opinion. UWC now down ... err .... close to 3%?

First down day after 3 strong up days, which saw UWC moved up from 5.63 on 30 Sep.....

This is normal profit taking dude....
anyway... that's my opinion... and if you insist UWC investor base is weak... so be it. Your right of opinion.  icon_rolleyes.gif





*
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 6 2020, 04:46 PM)
... and by the way, did you do a shareholder analysis?

1. What is the free float?

2. Share base of UWC?

3. Rough percentage of shares traded daily (on average)
UWC investor base is weak?  rolleyes.gif
*
QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Oct 6 2020, 04:59 PM)
Founder / Owner is having more than 70%+ in total. There are a few associates inside as well.

The free float is low, last round when trying to clear my position, the sell gap is up to 0.2X, and that was during when the price was 3.X range, or maybe that was a period of panic. idk.

Overall the one active inside there are nibbling at the stock. If you got enough capital / shares, you could really do some damage there.

I trade this one since IPO, and i still feel they are weak, i could really see big capital getting wipe off if i'm not careful on entry.
*
Don't frighten me leh. I'm in this stock. Recently, I just bought again as I saw the price was going to go up. However, this afternoon, it dropped (as with most stocks) due to M 6pm covid speech.


abcn1n
post Oct 31 2020, 04:12 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,379 posts

Joined: Sep 2017
QUOTE(Smurfs @ Oct 29 2020, 02:27 PM)
Update SUNREIT :

DPU For FY 2020 = 7.33 sens

SUNREIT Yield : 0.733/ 1.43 = 5.12%
Current eFD promo rate : 2.30 %
Current 10 Yrs MGS yield : 2.63 %

Latest QR result:

user posted image
DPU drop-> REIT price drop. The golden rule.

Let says one invested in SUNREIT during 19th May 2020 ,with price 1.55, one will currently now sitting at loss -9.2% 8% typo

Some of the highlight in the latest QR :

user posted image

user posted image

user posted image

Borrowing increased too, for the acquisition of Sunway Pinnacle  :

user posted image

user posted image

With current climate of prolonged global low interest rate environment, REIT will be the place for those yield chasing pension funds / institutional funds. Take a look at the largest 30 shareholders of REIT, mostly are those fund houses. A few % in yield different means almost nothing to individual investor, but for large institutional fund houses, we're talking about millions, or hundred of thousands perhaps?

user posted image

user posted image

However as an individual investor, the bet, or should i say investment strategy still remains, is to bet on its recovery. Here are some questions to ask ourself before investing in sunreit.

- Why SUNREIT?
- What is my expectation out of SUNREIT?
- How do I react if the price of SUNREIT drop further?
- Can the properties of SUNREIT earn me more DPU for years to come?
- When will be the recovery?
- What if it never recover?

icon_question.gif
*
Am currrently holding Sunreit at a loss. Will continue to hold it as one day the pandemic will be over, then price will rise back, hopefully to at least my BE price. Meanwhile collect dividend.

Most important question to ask is : Will pandemic be over. Answer is yes. Whether Sunreit can manage /grow its DPU will depend on how good its management is.


abcn1n
post Oct 31 2020, 06:50 PM

Look at all my stars!!
*******
Senior Member
2,379 posts

Joined: Sep 2017
QUOTE(Boon3 @ Oct 31 2020, 06:15 PM)
Have you consider the risk in your strategy for Sunreit?

Ok... here's my 3 sen input....

1. Meanwhile collect dividend....

Dividend has been changed from quarterly to semi annually.

And the dividends has shrunk a lot....


user posted image

See how drastic the decline in dividend payout?
Last payout was only 0.9 sen.
And it's only be paid twice a year. Instead of 4 times.

So you have to asked yourself, is the current and the future DPU be enough?
isn't it like small change?
will the dpu cover the drop in share price?

Yes the share price will drop.
You do realise that it is proven that once the DPU declines, the share price will fall.

So adding both together, the big risk question is... how much the dividend can compensate for the drop in share price?

2.  Here is the chart.

The chart will be needed. Yeah... one can argue that since it's REITS, them blardy charts is redundant.

But in terms of risk ...... shouldn't ask yourself, how low the stock might fall?
yes, you need to consider the worst case scenario .... so that you can answer the question, how much dividend can compensate the drop in share price?

this is the chart...

user posted image

what do I see?

1. The beautiful long term trend had been clearly broken since March 2020.

* think of the reasoning and logic behind the fall. The MCO was activated. It's a pandemic. What will be the worst hit sectors? Travel, retail and entertainment related. With MCO, the malls will be badly hit. With the pandemic, the travel industry is dead. The hotel industry will be hammered *

2. the bias of the stock is clearly to the downside.....

3. What do I see? 

I see acres of real estate in the chart on the downside!!!

ie if the fall continues... it could get real ugly.

Have you consider the risk of the stock falling to 1.30 or even 1 buck in the near future?
**** ah.... not saying it will fall that low. But this is your risk assessment.  You got to ask yourself... if it's ok to see the stock fall so low and collect ultra low dividend in the process? ****
This is what I will consider if I am holding Sunreit.
and yeah...  I am a trader and I could be very wrong in my thought process.
*
Thanks for sharing your view. My view below:

Dividend is certainly pathetic currently. But I do expect it to pick up once the pandemic is over. If it doesn't pick up, then the management is doing a lousy job. Then I will have to reconsider my investment as fundamentally something has changed (ie management's ability not good anymore). When dividend picks up, pandemic over, then the share price which has dropped will rise up again. So basically the 'real loss' is the lower dividend during this time period. Unless of course, I am able to find better investments during this period (but that nobody knows)

If I were to sell it now, I will lose between 10-15%. And I have to find another alternative trade for the $. Now, if I haven't bought yet but thinking of buying---well, of course I wouldn't be interested. Just looking at the graph, already no interest.

The big worry is if there is a 'market recession' (economically, the world is in recession but because of huge liquidity, money printing and ultra low interest rate, market doesn't reflect it), then the price may not return back to my BE point ever or take too long a period to do so.

This post has been edited by abcn1n: Oct 31 2020, 06:52 PM

 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
0.1980sec    0.25    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 27th November 2025 - 08:02 PM