Interesting read:

The Real Risk to the Global Economy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentar...r-smart-2017-11

This post has been edited by Aurora Boreali: Nov 13 2017, 11:17 PM

Thanks for the detailed and lengthy explanation......but to be honest,.....I find it very and hard to find the answers to the below post by puchongnite, even after having read your 2 recent posts
for the 1st post it seems to me that those that are in asset accumulation stage need not need to do anything for "is to have growth. And more importantly, compounded growth. If the growth is always trimmed, there will be no compounding."

is that the answer for those in the accumulation stage in the question by puchongnite?

then in the 2nd post........ "Usually, the allocation is higher on the more conservative fund with lesser risk. Higher risk, smaller portion. And if the funds are in different regions, like Greater China and Asean regions, or different categories, like large cap dividend fund and small-cap fund, their growth cycles won't be in tandem to each other."

does this apply to those in accumulation stage too?

and for this.....
"Above is the reason why I advocate only one fund if you are a newbie. Begin with just one fund. keep it simple.
Get the fund that you think will have the greatest potential in the long term, and invest in it whenever you are feeling rich and have the spareinvestment money to spend.
Throw out of the window, the above diversification nonsense of which fund to top up."

how long should this newbie hold that 1 fund and at what criteria will he be "promoted" so as to be able to venture into another fund?



This post has been edited by MUM: Nov 14 2017, 06:56 AM

those that are interested in this type of things about risks to global economy .....
here are more.....
current threats to the world economy
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=...1.0.bxL73oofEng

Global Titan dropped -2.3% since last Wednesday

Because Ringgit up?

Didn't see other foreign funds drop so much also...

when comes to the estimated return I foresee I will be getting for year 2017, should I look at Bid-to-Bid Annualized Return or Bid-to-Bid Cumulative Return?

Both return % are with any income or dividends reinvested, where can I view the dividends before reinvestment?

Not sure whether you are trolling or pulling my leg... anyway, I'm pleased that you acknowledge that there is no contradiction to my thoughts; as I have tried to be as consistent as possible. When there is no consistency, it means I'm wavering without any concrete opinion.

"... .I find it very and hard to find the answers to the below post by puchongnite,"

If the question is a hyperbolel what-if scenario, why would you try to find a common sense answer to it? First of all, do you understand what the scenario implies? A 20% sector or fund(s) that grew to 60% means it had grown 300%, if the size of the pie (portfolio) remains constant.

There would be many and various reasons to re-balance it, restructure it, trim it, etc etc. There will also be many reasons not to do so.

What you should do... depends on who you are (OMG, I'm repeating myself!). What is your investment objective? What do you think the market will be like in the near future? How old are you? Do you have a stable job with a stable income?

Who you are as an investor... for the sake of easier understanding, the investor is stereotype into 3 categories, the 1st, 2nd and 3rd stage.

For a sector or fund(s) to grow 300% in several years, the investor would be at the 2nd stage on the verge of stepping into the 3rd stage. He wouldn't be in stage 1.

If the investor is at the 1st stage, the acumulation stage of making regular purchses, the portfolio would not go out of whack. The portfolio is kept in shape by the regular purchases.


============

I repeat... for further clarity...

The 3rd stage is where you are selling units and/or the distribution income is pay-out to fund or suplement your retirement.

At the 2nd stage, you are preparing and getting ready for the 3rd stage of getting passive income out of the portfolio.

Depending on what is the current portfolio, the overhaul could be a major or minor adjustment. The agressive growth funds can be restructure to more conservative dividend funds or can also be bond/money-market/income funds. Or can also be both types.

How will you do it? See the previous post, " then it is up to us to value how far we want to chase performance growth, how greedy we want to be, how many years left for us to remedy and correct any shortfalls... etc. etc. Only we ourselves can truly knows what is the right balance that we should have."

============

"...then in the 2nd post........ "Usually, the allocation is higher on the more conservative fund with lesser risk. Higher risk, smaller portion."

Recall back what is core funds and secondary funds. Secondary funds is like play money for short term growth - like buying IDS. How much would you dare to hold? If each core fund is about 10%, for a cautious investor, it would be about 3-5%.

============

"how long should this newbie hold that 1 fund and at what criteria will he be "promoted" so as to be able to venture into another fund?"

Until he/she feels scared and worried! Then add in another fund to hedge the gamble... err, I meant risk.


============

Please bear in mind that the above thoughts and opinions are formed from long term investment objective - to be more precise, to supplement retirement income.

If the investmnent objective is short term, then take short term measures. As said, take the money and run when the winnings is good!

Very often, we have both short term and long term objectives in the portfolio. To be clear on how we should act and take measures, it would helps to separate the portfolio into 2. One for short term, another for long term.

CIMB Global Titan is dropping 2.6...

Should I buy more?

This post has been edited by Tylerlee: Nov 14 2017, 04:49 PM

what's your plan
or flying by the seats of your pants?

hehe - busta-rhyme
work your plan lar and plan your work.

tak kan every time move up/down a bit (yes, 2.6% is "a bit" relative to what i've seen), start second guessing pulak.
maybe that's just me, stressed if constantly second guessing self.

just thinking logically - though one can go "by feel" too, which may make more $, no absolute right/wrong

You can look at annualized return and/or cumulative return, as long as you know what they mean.

You need to also note that the figures did not capture service charge.

Also the figures is assuming a lump sum entry.

In practice, you actual return can be quite different from the annualized return and/or cumulative return. Because you maybe entering at a different point from the chart starting date. You may even have multiple entry points.

Last but not least, dividends have no impact to your return. You can ignore it.

You just need to be aware that temporary it can upset your portfolio numbers. But the order will be restored after about a month or so.

in UT,....it is not like FD where you can foresee what you will be getting....
to see what had been the return of a fund (so far, exclude future)....FSM has a tool for it...goto
FUNDS INFO/FUND RETURNs

Thanks for the reply....then it must just me for I just cannot fully digest all you had tried to said......guess I just don't have the mind to absorb/comprehend for a much higher level thinking....that seems like leading to more questions (soul searching)
thanks again.....sorry to trouble you and having wasted your time. appreciate it.
I was looking for a easy and simple response to puchongnite's post.....for I am sure, i will be faced with that scenario in year end.
anyone got any idea?

still learning... still learning... mercy

Do you meant that you have jumped directly into stage 2 with a lump sum investment on a full blown portfolio of several funds? As I could not see any other way this scenario is possible.

Then over the years, you have let it grown wild without trimming it or repotting it as you like its wild risky adventurous nature. And currently, looking at it with trepidation and fear that it will shrivel and die.

Whether it is a short term or long term investment, and if you have reached the objective, then take appropriate actions as you sees fit.

Time to harvest what you have sown.

==============

BTW The initial post to woonsc was written because I sensed some herd mentalily was forming in this forum. One say rebalancing, then another followed and repeat it without much further thoughts, as if it is some sort of formula that will applies to all situations.

Same with 'diversification'. Suddenly, it's like becoming a popular phrase. Any queries on what to do... diversification is the ready answer.

And lately, it is "managed portfolio".

If popularity is the ready answer regardless of who is asking, who is the investor... then we better conduct a poll.

Which is the popular fund, which managed port has the most subscription, which bond/equity ratio is most common... all your investoment headaches solved!

googled and found these articles from FSM....

This blog did have some almost similar situation as posted by puchongnite....and he shows how he did that.....
Sui Jau’s blog
Rebalanced my portfolio for 2014
https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/resea...SJBlog_20131227

then the rests are from FSM....hope it can provide you with some easy to read and understand materials

Everything You Need to Know about Rebalancing-webcast
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/fsmwe...atSubHeaderId=2

Rebalancing Works For Your Portfolio
Investors hear it often enough that it is important to rebalance one's investment portfolio, but just how effective is rebalancing? Our General Manager delves deeper to find out.
https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/resea...?articleNo=2215

The Nature of the Game – Rebalancing
In order to “play” the game of investing, we need to be “in the game” longer than our fellow peers. Rebalancing is a strategy that can keep you “in the game” for longer.
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...ebalancing-4232

The Importance of Rebalancing A Portfolio
We have been maintaining this mechanically rebalanced portfolio so as to highlight the importance and benefit of rebalancing. In this update, we revisit the basics of rebalancing and remind investors of the importance of rebalancing one’s portfolio.
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...-Portfolio-5374

As The Year Comes To A Close, Consider Rebalancing….December 17, 2010
The rebalancing method has shown that over a long period of time (our back test is over 40 years), a portfolio that used the rebalancing method has outperformed passive buy and hold methods by a quite a large margin. Did it outperform in 2010?
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...Rebalancing-842

End of the Year, It's Time to Rebalance! December 28, 2012
As we come to the end of the year, investors who are reviewing their portfolio might wish to consider rebalancing if they want a disciplined method that works over the long term.
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...lance!-3024

Clearing Your Doubts On Rebalancing
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...?articleNo=1980

Rebalancing: Are You Doing It Right?
FSM look to provide investors with a short guide on portfolio rebalancing and discuss how it helps investors to maximise returns of their portfolios.
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...gust-2017--8679

Mythbusting: Frequent Rebalancing Improves Portfolio Returns
You might have heard this one before: Frequent rebalancing to simultaneously lock in profits and dollar cost average into lower priced assets will provide better returns. We examined the myth and here's what we found.
https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/resea...lio-Returns-566

‘Tis The Time To Be Merry, & To Rebalance!
https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/articl...7-?locale=en_us

What Is Rebalancing?
Rebalancing involves setting a fixed allocation to your portfolio and sticking to it regardless of market movements.
For example, an investor sets an allocation of 30% into US equities, 30% into Asia equities, 30% into Europe equities, and 10% into Japan equities.
Every year, regardless of how markets have performed, the portfolio is rebalanced back to its original asset allocation.
Rebalancing forces investors to take profit from funds that have gone up, and buy into the funds that have gone down.
So, as the market go through their cycle of ups and downs, the method will eventually result in an investor “buying low and selling high”, which is the recipe for a successful portfolio.
This is because no market stays low indefinitely – similarly, no market goes up all the time and never comes down!
https://secure.fundsupermart.com/main/resea...?articleNo=2215

in a nutshell....
"The construction of a portfolio requires one to decide on an asset allocation that is able to achieve one's investment objectives while within the perimeters of one's risk tolerance and investment horizon.
However, in reality, given that financial markets do not move in tandem or in similar fashion, the odds are that an investor's portfolio would deviate from one's original targeted asset allocation.
Rebalancing is a technique that removes emotions from investing and enables investors to ensure that their portfolio maintains its original asset allocation.
With rebalancing, one would be taking profits from the best performers and re-investing the profits into the underperformers. The principle behind rebalancing is simple and straight forward: no single market will be the best performing market forever, nor will any single market be the bottom performing market for eternity.
As the various economies and financial markets undergo their respective cycles, the method of rebalancing will eventually result in one buying assets when they are cheap and selling assets when they have risen in price.
Ultimately, an investor would be buying low and selling high through the simple process of rebalancing, which makes for a successful investor and a portfolio that has historically shown to have delivered stronger returns."
https://secure.fundsupermart.com/fsm/maps/m...lio-rebalancing

This post has been edited by T231H: Dec 25 2017, 10:42 AM

eh why lately so bad one...

macam lost a lot... 4% down to 1.7% wtf is happening

Details? Which fund?

Your own diy port ?

This post has been edited by puchongite: Nov 14 2017, 08:39 PM

I think most funds also in red... Regardless of DIY or Managed Portfolio