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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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kurtkob78
post Jan 25 2018, 06:10 AM

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QUOTE(evangelion @ Jan 25 2018, 06:02 AM)
40% drop in 6 months? How do u calculate to form this conclusion.
Thx
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if the auctioned prop have no bidder, it will be re auction the next month and price will be reduced by 10%. u do the math
TSicemanfx
post Jan 25 2018, 07:27 AM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jan 24 2018, 11:08 PM)
Hot property wont be cheap even in lelong market.
Cheap property wont be hot, it is near impossible to flip.

Example below:

No taker again. Almost 50% drop in price now.

Vision Residence @ Puchong South - Cyberjaya
Size: 2485sqft
Date: 29-Jan-18

1st auction Rm1,000,000
2nd auction Rm900,000
3rd auction Rm810,000
4th auction Rm729,000
5th auction Rm657,000
6th auction Rm592,000
7th auction Rm533,000

If you think is possible you buy at 533k and resell back at 800k (still 20% below market price), earning 200k. Then by all means go and try.
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pokolinou
post Jan 25 2018, 08:06 AM

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QUOTE(limfreelance @ Dec 23 2016, 04:35 PM)
im tired of hearing buble buble bubble.
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TSicemanfx
post Jan 25 2018, 08:16 AM

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QUOTE(pokolinou @ Jan 25 2018, 08:06 AM)
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Kv property bubble was in 2011-2014. What you are experiencing currently is the deflation of bubble. If the current market sentiment persists, this deflation will prolong for a few years.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 25 2018, 09:11 AM
evangelion
post Jan 25 2018, 09:11 AM

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QUOTE(kurtkob78 @ Jan 25 2018, 06:10 AM)
if the auctioned prop have no bidder, it will be re auction the next month and price will be reduced by 10%. u do the math
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I thought re-auction period is about 3 months (1 quarter), so 4 quarters in a year is about 40% a years. Correct me if im wrong.
kurtkob78
post Jan 25 2018, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(evangelion @ Jan 25 2018, 09:11 AM)
I thought re-auction period is about 3 months (1 quarter), so 4 quarters in a year is about 40% a years. Correct me if im wrong.
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no, please refer to askar perang posts.
banks want to dispose fast.
TSicemanfx
post Jan 25 2018, 04:14 PM

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Bank Negara today raised its key interest rate for the first time in three and a half years, at a time inflation has crept up and growth is robust.

It hiked its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent.

The central bank said its monetary policy committee "decided to normalise the degree of monetary accommodation" as the economy remains firmly on a steady growth path.

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bank...asis-points-325

Some bbb/uuu previously claimed the amount extra pay on loan repayment on rise of 25 basis points is not enough to pay for a family's wanton mee lunch so is non eventful.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 25 2018, 04:16 PM
Ron2828
post Jan 25 2018, 04:46 PM

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Actually how much is the impact of 0.25% increase?

100k x 0.25% = RM250
RM250/12 =RM20.83 increase per month for every 100k loan

Is it this simple?

WhitE LighteR
post Jan 25 2018, 04:52 PM

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QUOTE(Ron2828 @ Jan 25 2018, 04:46 PM)
Actually how much is the impact of 0.25% increase?

100k x 0.25% = RM250
RM250/12 =RM20.83 increase per month for every 100k loan

Is it this simple?
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Realistically no one has 100k loan.

Let say if a loan is 700k, that is 145.81 extra a month

Or 1749.72 a year.
Mr. Najib Razak
post Jan 25 2018, 05:28 PM

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ok guise
if ada mansion mv 10mil drop to 1mil (auction sale)
inform me yeah

This post has been edited by Mr. Najib Razak: Jan 25 2018, 05:28 PM
AskarPerang
post Jan 26 2018, 03:25 AM

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QUOTE(riezzien @ Jan 20 2018, 08:08 AM)
Im interested if MBTL can get below 400k lol
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Mirage By The Lake@ Cyberjaya

1009sf 2rooms 2bathrooms, Freehold
Market Value RM600K.
Reserve Price RM393K
Date: February 2018

AskarPerang
post Jan 26 2018, 03:29 AM

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QUOTE(evangelion @ Jan 25 2018, 09:11 AM)
I thought re-auction period is about 3 months (1 quarter), so 4 quarters in a year is about 40% a years. Correct me if im wrong.
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Depends on bank. But now most banks doing it monthly. Some banks doing in 2 weeks once. Drop in prices very fast.

Reason is maybe got few other similar size unit of the same project queueing up. Need to dispose. Good example is M City, The Elements, MBTL, Central Residence, Scenaria, M Residence 2.
TSicemanfx
post Jan 27 2018, 12:56 AM

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QUOTE(urbanite @ Jan 26 2018, 06:54 PM)
Nothing new. Some countries in Europe eg Germany, are on this model.

Better to look at how to deliver affordable housing. There is no social safety net in this part of the world. Owning a house can be a form of force savings and a hedge against inflation, for your golden years.
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Scenario 1, A bought a house with $600k loan;
For $600k loan, 30 years loan tenure and 4.45% p.a.
Monthly instalment: $3,022, Total amount paid: $1,088,032; Total interest paid: $488,032.

Scenario 2, B bought a house with $300k loan and invest $1,502 monthly to saving account at 3% p.a.

For $300k loan, 30 years loan tenure and 4.5% p.a.
Monthly instalment: $1,520, Total amount paid: $547,220; Total interest paid: $247,220

For $1,502 monthly saving at 3% p.a., after 30 years saving become $869,229

How could borrowing could be a saving or hedge against inflation?

https://www.citibank.com.my/english/home-lo...-calculator.htm

https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/saving...calculator.aspx

urbanite
post Jan 27 2018, 03:01 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 27 2018, 12:56 AM)
Scenario 1, A bought a house with $600k loan;
For $600k loan, 30 years loan tenure and 4.45% p.a.
Monthly instalment: $3,022, Total amount paid: $1,088,032; Total interest paid: $488,032.

Scenario 2, B bought a house with $300k loan and invest $1,502 monthly to saving account at 3% p.a.

For $300k loan, 30 years loan tenure and 4.5% p.a.
Monthly instalment: $1,520, Total amount paid: $547,220; Total interest paid: $247,220

For $1,502 monthly saving at 3% p.a., after 30 years saving become $869,229

How could borrowing could be a saving or hedge against inflation?

https://www.citibank.com.my/english/home-lo...-calculator.htm

https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/saving...calculator.aspx
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Factor in disposal value of the property and rental expense paid in your modelling

If you rent, you won't have the RM1,5O2 to save
If you buy, you will be able to realize the disposal value eventually

This post has been edited by urbanite: Jan 27 2018, 03:31 AM
TSicemanfx
post Jan 27 2018, 03:45 AM

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QUOTE(urbanite @ Jan 27 2018, 03:01 AM)
Factor in disposal value of the property and rental expense paid in your modelling

If you rent, you won't have the RM1,5O2 to save
If you buy, you will be able to realize the disposal value eventually
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The scenario assumed one buy cheaper (e.g $300k) property instead of $600k.

About half of total loan repayment made is paid for interest, is not a savings. Property price needs to rise continuously to compensate for loan interest paid.

party
post Jan 27 2018, 03:50 AM

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QUOTE(limfreelance @ Dec 23 2016, 04:35 PM)
im tired of hearing buble buble bubble.
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TSicemanfx
post Jan 27 2018, 08:12 AM

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QUOTE(party @ Jan 27 2018, 03:50 AM)

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Kv property bubble was in 2011-2014, were you in hibernation or oblivion in the last few years?

evangelion
post Jan 27 2018, 09:23 AM

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QUOTE(urbanite @ Jan 27 2018, 03:01 AM)
Factor in disposal value of the property and rental expense paid in your modelling

If you rent, you won't have the RM1,5O2 to save
If you buy, you will be able to realize the disposal value eventually
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1) The notion that property bubble can occur is when a large sample of normal households has more than one house, i.e. investment property or properties, which means they no longer require to rent.

2) He could have heavily skew his model to his favor by saying investing in S&P passive fund which has produce 10% compound return for the last 30 years on average. But equally, most people are not comfortable or knowledgeable to invest in this kind of instrument.

3) Disposal value depends heavily on location, economy and market sentiment. I have seen 20 years property with no gain, as well as property which doubled in 8-ish years.
TrialGone
post Jan 27 2018, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(AskarPerang @ Jan 26 2018, 03:25 AM)
Mirage By The Lake@ Cyberjaya

1009sf  2rooms 2bathrooms, Freehold
Market Value RM600K.
Reserve Price RM393K
Date: February 2018
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That pricing may not necessary reflect actual reality. I have seen shops closing in one mall one by one, but owner still insist on maintaining rent. There will still be people/developers out there who rather wait than letting go at smaller profit, but for how long is another thing.
party
post Jan 27 2018, 12:43 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 27 2018, 08:12 AM)
Kv property bubble was in 2011-2014, were you in hibernation or oblivion in the last few years?
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Walao..so fast u uturn...u wan me find back posts in 2014,2015,2016 and 2017 anot mr professors.

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