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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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TSicemanfx
post Jan 27 2018, 12:51 PM

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QUOTE(party @ Jan 27 2018, 12:43 PM)
Walao..so fast u uturn...u wan me find back posts in 2014,2015,2016 and 2017 anot mr professors.
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By all means.

What BBB/uuu are experiencing currently is deflation of property bubble.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 27 2018, 12:52 PM
TSicemanfx
post Jan 27 2018, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 27 2018, 12:56 AM)
Scenario 1, A bought a house with $600k loan;
For $600k loan, 30 years loan tenure and 4.45% p.a.
Monthly instalment: $3,022, Total amount paid: $1,088,032; Total interest paid: $488,032.

Scenario 2, B bought a house with $300k loan and invest $1,502 monthly to saving account at 3% p.a.

For $300k loan, 30 years loan tenure and 4.5% p.a.
Monthly instalment: $1,520, Total amount paid: $547,220; Total interest paid: $247,220

For $1,502 monthly saving at 3% p.a., after 30 years saving become $869,229

How could borrowing could be a saving or hedge against inflation?

https://www.citibank.com.my/english/home-lo...-calculator.htm

https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/saving...calculator.aspx
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QUOTE(urbanite @ Jan 27 2018, 11:21 AM)
Have you been renting instead of buying, you won’t have anything to sell.

And, after retirement, no income source to pay for rental.
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QUOTE(urbanite @ Jan 27 2018, 11:22 AM)
The other scenario is to use it all for rental
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You don't seem to read or understand the scenario quoted.

Scenario 1, A ended up with a property cost $1,088,032.

Scenario 2, B ended up with a property cost $547,220 and $869,229 cash.

30 years old property especially condo is less desirable or popular in this country, price appreciation is lower than most expected.

TSicemanfx
post Jan 27 2018, 01:39 PM

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QUOTE(aaron1717 @ Jan 27 2018, 11:02 AM)
thats why there are no perfect scenario... just like the scenario u mentioned... the extra cash they have in hand eventually will just spend off elsewhere without any savings left.... to say that one can save money perfectly in voluntarily status without further motivation is also defying human behavior traits... lol
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QUOTE(skincladalien @ Jan 27 2018, 11:07 AM)
agree to this. everyone keep talking about finance planing etc but no one study into human behavior
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Most are blinded by greed, want fast money and reward without working for it. Those without financial discipline are likely to take risk and fall into debt trap.

For reasons, only 3% of adults in this country have over us$100k net worth.

TSicemanfx
post Jan 27 2018, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Jan 27 2018, 01:47 PM)
Nice one. There wont be any positive rental vs installment nowadays as property prices have soared tremendously over these past few years. If one have bought like 7 or 8 years back, they would be enjoying the said positive rental. You can forget it now unless you buy properties at ulu places but then again the rental there wont be high either. Moreover, consumers are spoilt for choice now. This is not Hong Kong or Singapore where land is really limited.

So do you expect the property market to continue to slump this year considering Bank Negara has hiked the interests rates?
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Property market will not only effected by rising bank interest rate in the next few years, liquidity tightening is more damaging.

in order to attract fdi, the gomen may need to reduce corporate tax to match or lower than u.s's 21%. to compensate for reduction in corporate tax revenue, the gomen is likely and easiest to rise gst.

TSicemanfx
post Jan 28 2018, 12:36 AM

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KUALA LUMPUR: Th e Malaysian property market’s performance in 2018 is expected to be similar to its performance in 2017 in terms of transactions, said Valuation and Property Services Department (JPPH) director-general Nordin Daharom at the 11th Malaysian Property Summit today.

Given the positive growth in the country’s GDP and improving market sentiment, Nordin believes that the total transaction volume and value in 2018 will maintain at levels similar to 2017.

https://dbv47yu57n5vf.cloudfront.net/s3fs-p...2580_locked.pdf

Another buyers market ahead

SUScocbum4
post Jan 28 2018, 01:38 AM

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Next year property BBB.
UUU confirm kambing.
History repeat itself.
Poor man please don't jelly later.
TSicemanfx
post Jan 28 2018, 05:00 AM

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QUOTE(cocbum4 @ Jan 28 2018, 01:38 AM)
Next year property BBB.
UUU confirm kambing.
History repeat itself.
Poor man please don't jelly later.
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Have you double down on btc? If not, why not?

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 28 2018, 05:01 AM
SUScocbum4
post Jan 28 2018, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 28 2018, 05:00 AM)
Have you double down on btc? If not, why not?
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Ayam invest anything as long as bankster hate it.
Gun bullet precious metal property collectible Jew name it.
party
post Jan 28 2018, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 28 2018, 05:00 AM)
Have you double down on btc? If not, why not?
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btc value is still 1000% of what previously is but u consider btc as DDD ah?
TSicemanfx
post Jan 28 2018, 04:18 PM

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QUOTE(party @ Jan 28 2018, 03:59 PM)
btc value is still 1000% of what previously is but u consider btc as DDD ah?
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It depends on when one bought it.

If you belong to 1000% school, how much did you buy recently? If not, why not?

QUOTE(cocbum4 @ Jan 28 2018, 03:50 PM)
Ayam invest anything as long as bankster hate it.
Gun bullet precious metal property collectible Jew name it.
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Mean you didn't buy after price dropped from peak and your current holding is under water.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 28 2018, 04:21 PM
SUScocbum4
post Jan 28 2018, 05:26 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 28 2018, 04:18 PM)
It depends on when one bought it.

If you belong to 1000% school, how much did you buy recently? If not, why not?
Mean you didn't buy after price dropped from peak and your current holding is under water.
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Ayam bot at 1700, 3000, 5900 and ayam still buying.
Ayam know what ayam is doing.
And it is doing great so far.
Also ayam got a lot of side income from crypto too.
All thanks to bankster and their dirty jobs.
timo1003
post Jan 28 2018, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(cocbum4 @ Jan 28 2018, 05:26 PM)
Ayam bot at 1700, 3000, 5900 and ayam still buying.
Ayam know what ayam is doing.
And it is doing great so far.
Also ayam got a lot of side income from crypto too.
All thanks to bankster and their dirty jobs.
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Sorry to burst your bubble, if you'd bought at those prices with substantial amounts, you won't be likely to 'boast' here on forums biggrin.gif. And cryptocurrency ain't doing well for the past few weeks. Those who bought within this period (due to media euphoria) are mostly in the loss at the moment. Even cryptocurrency chat groups have gone very 'quiet' lately. brows.gif Why ah? tongue.gif 1 step forward 2 steps backwards
Clement1001
post Jan 28 2018, 06:17 PM

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Market about to take off = buyer wait and see
Market take off = buyer FOMO
Market stagnant = buyer buy in auction ( we are here 2018)
Market drop = auction buyer cut loss
Market about to take off again = buyer wait and see

This post has been edited by Clement1001: Jan 28 2018, 06:17 PM
SUScocbum4
post Jan 28 2018, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(timo1003 @ Jan 28 2018, 05:47 PM)
Sorry to burst your bubble, if you'd bought at those prices with substantial amounts, you won't be likely to 'boast' here on forums biggrin.gif. And cryptocurrency ain't doing well for the past few weeks. Those who bought within this period (due to media euphoria) are mostly in the loss at the moment. Even cryptocurrency chat groups have gone very 'quiet' lately.  brows.gif Why ah? tongue.gif 1 step forward 2 steps backwards
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Ayam don’t have the answer, and ayam don’t think can have the answer anytime, ayam only belip it has something to do with the central bank and regulation, dumping millions worth of contract asset into market, and most of this trades are undisclosed to be public, only the top secret elite has the info. However the buttcoin would still be the great store of value just like any tangible collectibles, and it would always be the great store of value for the richest elite no matter what happen to the economy.
TSicemanfx
post Jan 28 2018, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(Clement1001 @ Jan 28 2018, 06:17 PM)
Market about to take off = buyer wait and see
Market take off = buyer FOMO
Market stagnant = buyer buy in auction ( we are here 2018)
Market drop = auction buyer cut loss
Market about to take off again = buyer wait and see
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Property market is largely cyclical, there are different investment phases for different type of investors.

During bull run, was largely bought by the herd. Vultures will wait until blood is knees deep on the floor before picking.

QUOTE(cocbum4 @ Jan 28 2018, 06:28 PM)
Ayam don’t have the answer, and ayam don’t think can have the answer anytime, ayam only belip it has something to do with the central bank and regulation, dumping millions worth of contract asset into market, and most of this trades are undisclosed to be public, only the top secret elite has the info. However the buttcoin would still be the great store of value just like any tangible collectibles, and it would always be the great store of value for the richest elite no matter what happen to the economy.
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The rich become richer, the poor remain poor and the middle class become the new poor. For reasons, only 3% of adults in the kangkong land have over us$100k net worth.


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 28 2018, 06:58 PM
urbanite
post Jan 28 2018, 09:13 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 27 2018, 01:32 PM)
You don't seem to read or understand the scenario quoted.

Scenario 1, A ended up with a property cost $1,088,032.

Scenario 2, B ended up with a property cost $547,220 and $869,229 cash.

30 years old property especially condo is less desirable or popular in this country, price appreciation is lower than most expected.
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You also don't seem to understand what I am to put through. So just leave it at that.

Happy renting
SUScocbum4
post Jan 29 2018, 11:08 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 28 2018, 06:55 PM)
Property market is largely cyclical, there are different investment phases for different type of investors.

During bull run, was largely bought by the herd. Vultures will wait until blood is knees deep on the floor before picking.
The rich become richer, the poor remain poor and the middle class become the new poor. For reasons, only 3% of adults in the kangkong land have over us$100k net worth.
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Ayam don’t care how many are peasant
Ayam know ayam has money to buy anything ayam rike.
Ayam also know what is the best way to make more and more money, also ayam is become richer everyday, want to become wealthier, follow the master race not follow the peasant. And ayam don’t want to mislead new home buyers, they are good to buy home now, it will be the best decision they made.
Jliew168
post Jan 29 2018, 03:22 PM

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bearbearwong interest going up soon.. Your GVH apa macam
TSicemanfx
post Jan 31 2018, 12:12 PM

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QUOTE(WannaGetBuffed @ Jan 31 2018, 03:06 AM)
20% is 136,600. On top of that i calculate the monthly installment 2000 to be included in like epf where u have a principle then monthly contribution are added into it and end of the year u get dividend and then recompunded.

https://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/c...tcalculator.php

U fill up the numbers inside u will roughly get the interest over the years. Just take your epf figure and try on it and see if the generation is correct.

All factors are already in inclusive of rental and interest to the bank. It's for own stay then change mind to rent. Rental was 55-65% roughly to installment. That is just enough to offset the interest, so in theory I am pumping in 40-45% in monthly before other misc cost.

Rental is not full 100% uptime u should know that. Probably I would say 70% uptime while 30% look for tenant. Interest is 100% uptime so always interest cost will be higher than rental income over the long term.

I got an Excel sheet for all expenses. After minus out everything only profit 20k but after calculate lost opportunity cost is -35k
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QUOTE(Truesmartinvestor @ Jan 31 2018, 10:32 AM)
I think your calculation method is very good. Sure wins are developers, bankers and agents. End investors win only if timing is right. Timing is right only when rental yield is at least 6% and above for investment.

Let me illustrate your scenario in layman term:
683k sold at 800k in 6 years
117k divided by 683k is 17% for 6 years. Per year is 2.8% and this is not using compounding formula. Actual return rate is lower if using compounding formula.

But your mortgage interest rate is at 4.x%. There are other misc costs like taxes, MoT, maintenance etc. 

From this angle, you are losing. Now we add the income from rental or cost of own stay.  If rental yield is 3% assuming best scenario which is about 2k give and take every month.

Your nett yield  is 5.8% - 4.3% = 1.5% !!!!! Not that much but it is good as long as positive, not sure if add in taxes. But this percentage is off your leveraged amount, not your actual invested amount.

Even if off the leverage, the return is not attractive if u compare with other form of investments. That is why Warren Buffett does not invest in property himself. He is a smart guy.

Great if you could share your excel here.
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Invite uuu/bbb to give their opinions.

WannaGetBuffed
post Jan 31 2018, 02:08 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 31 2018, 12:12 PM)
Invite uuu/bbb to give their opinions.
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To be fair, I still have condo units generating positive yield. One of it is more than 10%. But if one goes in today, it will still depend on the entry price, the deposit, the return and it's cost.

I am still purchasing, in fact after selling off those 2, I bought another 2 which I believe will have a better potential to return more than 4%.

Furthermore this time smart already, entry cost is less than 40k so my opportunity cost to be negative is lower and I pump my money somewhere else for a higher return.

Property is not all ddd. Still can buy but super selected and lots of homework. But I believe it's rewarding if done correctly.

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