I'm in the mood for more analogies and stubborn people-shooting

If this doesn't make u understand, u are hopeless. Really.

Someone bought Maybank shares at RM8.00 somewhere mid-2010.
When Maybank go up to RM9.00 somewhere 2011, his broker tell him he can sell his Maybank shares at RM8.00 each. He asked no further questions.
When Maybank went up to RM10.50 somewhere 2013, his broker still tell him he can sell his Maybank shares at RM8.00 each. He asked no further questions.
Now Maybank is trading at RM7.69. For some reasons he decided to sell now. His broker tell him, "Mr Ram! Lucky for u, u had me as your broker, u still can get back RM8.00 for each Maybank shares u hold!"

"Wow, thank you Mr Con! I've been receiving dividends every year without fail and now I can sell back my shares at cost. You really are a super broker! I love u kuat-kuat!"



Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) comparable to Developed Markets? It's okay for investments in GEMs to be compared to investments in global tech stocks?

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Sep 23 2016, 11:53 AM

Walao. I never kacau you also.
At least good or bad times I am assured the 6% imagine bad for 3-4 years. Apa nak buat. Or repeat of 1998 people all panic left & right all withdraw to cut loss but those with ASX FP cool as cucumber.
Asal ~ +-EPF returns & must be > FDs for stable monthly income cukup la.

Well, I would say it all boils down to your investment horizon.
If it's less than 5 years, ASx makes good sense;
If its more than 10 years, 6% and 10% makes a lot of difference.
(Between 5 and 10 is a grey area.)

Btw, Muslims these days love to talk about syariah compliant. I wonder if the 'assured dividend' of ASx is syariah compliant.

----- deleted due to double posting -----

Sorry mod.



This post has been edited by xuzen: Sep 23 2016, 12:29 PM

India Huat ar!

Tech sector Huat ar!

Even grandma-type Asnita Bond also not bad.

Dasecret RHB Asian Income Fund also not bad eh?

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Sep 23 2016, 12:30 PM

Hopefully some day you realise he's not kacau-ing you but instead putting money in your pocket.... I couldn't be bothered jor, waste saliva

Sounds like broken record - ASB is not syariah compliant, bumis who are non-muslims also can buy
Anyway, dividend is not exactly assured la, just constructive obligation due to past performance and it's the people's expectations. It's quite different from EPF Act minimum 2.5% guaranteed returns
Btw, most people who put in ASM/ASW don't touch their money one, cos fear of once sold difficult to buy back... so we are talking about 20 years horizon instead of <5 in most instances for non-bumis

Err... If Asnita is grandma then RHB Asian Income is aunty lor, semi boring-ish returns
You don't want to try out ponzi 1.0 meh?

Ponzi Ver 1 does not obtain Algozen™ stamp of approval!

Ponzi 2.0 got the seal?

Siapa makan cili, dia lah yang rasa pedas

Seems like that kambing still don't understand. Well, I rest my case

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Sep 23 2016, 01:44 PM

Bro, the key word is "RESERVES".

Complacent people assumes that the reserves will never be drawn til dry.

People who understands finance will understand the Maybank analogy that I've drawn upon. On a worse scale, imagine a company which maintains it's dividends yet it's earnings does not grow or worse still, even distributes dividends on loss-making years.

Things that do not bite u now may come back to bite u in later years. People who chose not to appreciate transparent accounting/reporting and only cares about how much he is paid is akin to people investing in Ponzi schemes.

I think it's obvious by now who is here for the sake of main kacau bump up his post count.

*Ignore*

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Sep 23 2016, 01:52 PM

Ponzi 2.0 is Algozen™ approved!

But then you will sure ask me how come I don't participate into Ponzi 2.0 punya?

Unlike Pokémon's tag line "Gotta catch em all", Algozen™ does not subscribe to "Gotta buy em all".

Xuzen

I think you are being kind to my long, grandpa post eventhough it looks gibberish to you.

Seriously, at least try to read it again... as what I was saying is using IRR as a measuring gauge in another manner - to gauge the past recent history of your portfolio performance.

Just as we can look towards the future in short term as well as long term viewpoint, we can also look into the past performance history in terms of recent history as well as deeper history.

Why do you need to have maths to prove something that is already known? Common sense already tell us that UT funds are volatile. Even if we do nothing to the portfolio, the ROI (and indrectly, the IRR) will move along with the volatility of the portfolio. Of course, there would be added movement whenever we adjust and fiddle with the portfolio by switching from one fund to another, or one category to another.

Look, IRR is just an 'effective rate'. It is for having an apple to apple comparison. For example, banks can have a FD promotion with step up rates from 3.5% to 4.8% on every subsequent 3-months deposits. At the bottom of the brochure, the "effective rate" would be stated too. This "effective rate" is the actual interest rate if the deposit is only withdrawn at the maturity date 12-months later.

So, to compare whether the step-up FD promotion is better than another bank's FD promotion, we just need to compare their "effective rate".

In that previous post, the last part is on doing IRR on the current porfolio without back dating it to Day1 of your investment adventure. I put that into the post because you will eventually need the IRR (or the "effective rate") after monitoring the yearly growth for a few years.

Each year will have a different growth rate - just like in the step-up FD promotion every 3 months. This is the reason to have IRR - to have an "effective rate" to make comparison on the returns of the current portfolio against FD and/or EPF rates.

Lastly, the phrase, I think, you were looking for is not 'creative accounting' - which is lying using numbers. It is 'playing with numbers' - meaning fiddling with several options/scenarios and asking lots of what ifs. For example, what if the bond ratio in the portfolio is adjusted from 45% to 50%, what if equity fund A is increased from 5% to 8%, etc. etc.

"IF" Irr values can be "played" by that,.....then frequent traders "may" have a better performing IRR."

No, IRR cannot be "played" like that, As explained, it is only an "effective rate".

What was being played around is the portfolio - by trading (moving funds in and out by selling and buying them), and switching from one fund to another. How frequent you turn the portfolio around - which can be called "portfolio turnover" as in "inventory turnover" - will definitely affect the returns (which is the ROI, and the IRR too) - for better or for worse.

(You seem to have forgotten the previous posts on that favorite quote from the first Dirty Harry movie. )

can this effective rate be termed similar to annualised returns whereby some funds may have more volatility ratio and expense ratio due to higher fund turnover because of more stocks being "played"?

I repeat for one LAST TIME.

People who don't believe in UTs and swear by their preferred alternative can continue to do so but please do not come here just for the sake of playing Devil's Advocate and bumping up your posts count to appear "pro" in this forum. I've already explained the rationale and ethical stand of why we should not stand by fixed price UTs without understanding fully the implications of reserves - NEVER assume that reserves would not run dry.

If you can't argue constructively in public, means that u are afraid of getting rebutted. Get outa here. I don't profit from FSM or from sale of any UTs from any channels, convincing people to get on board I profit nothing, so don't waste bandwidth here.

yeah i think mine may be slightly more risky, in exchange of less work.

"timing" is hated by many here, but that was what causing your less than satisfied IRR.

inject new capital does not mean IRR will sure go up.
It happens only if new investment brings higher profit,if not IRR may even become worse.

creative accounting is only self cheating. if profit is X , it is X.

Best way is to start anew.
Inject new capital , start new portfolio.
Leave the old poor IRR portfolio separate.

every trade/switch/sell, if lose money, IRR will be down. the more trades the more down.
Even if sit there no trades, the price going down, IRR will also be down.

To get IRR up,must make profit, trading itself wont help, with fees in it will be worse.

cant blame him, sitting there doing nothing also get 6.5% return,
here struggling, cracking over various formulas may get less also.


Ram will ask, u think me stupid meh, if price RM9.00 or RM10.50 you say i can only sell RM8.00??
Poor analogy message you wanna send sure down the drain.

Might as well say, if ASNB make 15% they pay you only 7%, happy?
If ASNB makes 10%, you get only 6.5% happy? Happy i would say.


Yeah, IRR cant be changed unless u can go back in time to change your UT purchase/sell prices.

All right. Let's go. Lai. Was thinking about posting in ASNB thread but what the heck. No exposure. Here max exposure.

1. What's wrong with no transparency?
- They did give a report stating they make a loss/profit. That's not transparent enough? They only don't state their reserves.
- Main point here is you will never rugi despite the fund making a loss as they will honour all withdrawl big or small on the spot. Been there, done that.
- Even if loss but as long as give regular 6.x% returns and can withdraw in full with profits what's the problem? Is your money what. Tell me can Libra asnita do that? Give 6.x% every year without fail?
- Even you can use that when apply for loans/CC from banks. Banks accept screenshot of FSM or not?
- Even if no transparency, how come big shot pump in 6-7 figure (seen with my own eyes at a bank 2 random aunties comes to the bank everyday and pump in 4-5 figure/day)
- If people bother about transparency, how come whenever a new fund is release, lots of people line up and the fund is sold out within a week?
-> Since you like analogy so much:
Whenever apple release a new iphone, people all line up like crazy to buy. Apple don't disclose what hardware they use also. But we all know that when samsung release new phone which beats apple anyday, how come we don't see people lining up to buy? (let's not turn this into apple vs android/samsung)
- How come you see now FD rates down, lots of people trying amanah saham?
- Even if no transparency, how come ordinary people (I see people at the bank) hear the name amanah saham only kena conned into buying their other non-performing fund? (the power of the brand despite no transparency)
- You mentioned about reserves, don't you think Bank Negara will not sound like what happen the last time?

And for the record,
*being honest here = I never even look at post count or stars before now in this forum or any western forum I joined*
- So please explain about why post count is important. If get paid for post count OK la. There's nothing in it for post count!
- Not even like some forum where post count let you see some secret stuff which is worth it.

Your turn.
Now after this, I hope we can put aside out differences and focus on FSM. OK?

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Sep 23 2016, 05:38 PM

U miss the key phrase - "when being told that u can sell for RM8.00 (at cost) and u don't ask further questions"

Fixed price regime is NOT FAIR - people who join the party late after a run of good performance gets to enjoy dividends paid out from accumulated reserves of those who joined earlier.


If u still don't get this, get your brain cracked and I'll fit in an orangutan's for u, maybe it'll work better.

Stop layan irrelevant posts, shall we?

This post has been edited by Pink Spider: Sep 23 2016, 05:42 PM

Yes, the 'effective rate' is the annualised rate. Also the CAGR rate. Same thing.

(Why we are using the term IRR? You will need to know why we have to use the Excel spreadsheet function XIRR to calculate the 'effective rate'.)

It is the returns of your portfolio that is being measured... I don't see how you could link the 'effective rate' to volatility or expense ratio of the fund itself.

The performance of the fund on its own is one thing... which different from your investor's returns since you bought into the fund at different times at various NAV prices.

In other words, you and your friend could be having the same fund, yet each of you is having different returns because you did not buy into the fund at the same time as your friend.

As for 'portfolio turnover', let's say we started a small business with seed capital of 100k. We use the 100k to buy some stocks or inventory. The more times we have inventory turnover, the higher would be the revenue for the year. But this higher turnover and higher revenue do not necessary means higher income or returns. Don't forget that we have to pay to replenish the inventory. And some of the inventory may be damaged or sold at a lost.

What matters at the end of the (financial) year, is the net profit or net returns. Which is the basis of the ROI (and IRR) calculations.

No matter how many times you turnover the inventory, how you sell and buy at what price, you don't need to tell me (or the Excel XIRR function) - since I'm only interested in the net profit to calculate the ROI (and the IRR too, since I already know when we used the seed capital).

(On a side note: this is the reason I used the term 'black box operation' in a previous post... inventory turnover is smilar to portfolio turnover... I only need to know the seed capital and its date, and the portfolio current value to calculate the ROI and IRR. What funds had been switched, how many times it was switch, at what profit or lost, at what NAV prices... the only thing that matters is the current value of the portfolio.)

============

BTW. I think some investors is too impatient... make some changes today, too quick to take stock on how the portfolio is performing the next week... make a purchase today, so happy that it went up the next week, and then thinking whether to take profit or not (and the IRR is in triple digits - true kah?). How lah? You call this 'investment into UT" or "trading UT"?

Many, many times - already mentioned that UT has risk and can be volatile - not like FD or fixed price funds... yet want to demand that the UT fund the investor is holding must give consistent positive growth every year... how lah? Like this, is there proper understanding or not before entering into the UT fund?

I think the current buzzword is 'asset allocation', and everyone is going 'what's the perfect portfolio'. At the same time, asking what is the bond/equity ratio to hold... so gave them some formula like using 100 minus your age. So what happens when a newbie posted his list of funds he is holding... everyone becomes an expert like what funds he should dropped, what funds to add... as for all we know he is 70 yrs-old and not a 22 yrs-old youngsters. Wow, so risky la... 100% into equity when he is actually risking only 1k and having another 300k in fd.

I agree 100% with this statement. I think we can only give general advice in this forum without knowing the investor's background. I think the phrase "buyer beware" applies here. At the end of the day, it is your hard earned money...you have to do the research and bear the risk yourself.

There are only about 5 true sifus in this forum and some of them don't post often. No offence intended but some of the forumers here have only invested in unit trusts for less than 3 years and their "knowledge" are solely from the forum or online material. Some are not even investors in FSM!