Thanks for your comments Michael. Basically the middle men takes back the fish live. They will come to collect it with their 3 tonne lorry that is equipped with aerators. Most likely they are supplying to restaurants where they can get a good price for them.
We are trying to understand the risk involved in the business as neither me or my partner has experience in it. This is why I posted in this forum. Infact today I just brought over an experience farmer to the fish farm to gauge to see if the business is viable.
I understand that in any business there will be many risk involved, otherwise everyone would be doing business. There will also be plenty of ways to reduce risk with the right knowledge. Risk that are out of our control will be tough to mitigate but with experience, perhaps we could bring down the cost of production and increase quality.
I foresee that demand will remain high since population growth is certain but it also depends on the number of players that will take up the venture. If the market becomes oversaturated, then prices goes down and most farmers will suffer. The tilapia will be 100% pellet fed and if pellet feed keeps increasing in price each year and the price of fish keeps dropping, I don't see any sense in its economics, unless we become flooded with cheap tilapias from thailand or china.
well I hope to ROI in 1 - 2 years and perhaps do about 20 - 30% profit
QUOTE(Michael J. @ Mar 28 2012, 04:52 PM)
Elmer:
Based on current trends, tilapia prices are stable, but gradually reducing, especially for frozen whole fish. Live fish gets better prices, but are niche markets. The best market are with processed fillets.
There are many risks involved with any kind of aquaculture business. Maybe you should have identified them ahead first. It is good that the feed supplier has guaranteed buyback. Some of the most common risks include:
(i) Disease outbreak - particular concern in high density earthen pond cultures
(ii) Policy risks - Eg. tilapia from China got barred from entering Europe due to antibiotic residues; same concern in Vietnam and Thailand
(iii) Market risk - Although prices are relatively stable, and demand is still comparatively high, there is a real risk of the market being flooded in the near future (<5 years). In such a case, producers with the lowest cost and highest quality will thrive
Demand now is still higher than supply, due to tilapia being a cheap fish compared to other white fish. The same can't be said in the next 5 years. Just look at what happened with salmon prices; it nearly halved after large scale aquaculture took place. But as wild fisheries begin to dwindle, this species will play a more significant role in the market place. A case in point: I went to inspect some markets to gauge the production and demand of cultured fish species a couple weeks back. Cultured siakap, pompano and catfish were piled prominently on the tables, but couldn't find red tilapia. When asked the wholesalers, they said "all sold out".
But why shouldn't it be completely sold out? With prices of marine fishes hitting the high double digits per kg, it is no surprise. I mean, even cultured siakap was being sold at about RM20 per kg wholesale. Catfish sells cheap (African catfish and pangasius sells for low single digits per kg), but their taste and texture really can't replace those of white fish like snapper, pomfret, or bream. Also, cultured catfish tend to be fatty, so less flesh is available per kg compared to lean fish like tilapia.
But really, Elmer, what kind of returns do you hope to get? 20% or more?
Added on March 29, 2012, 5:33 pmHi Mr. Farmer,
My partner and I definitely do not have hands-on experience in running a fish farm. I'm from the IT background and he is from manufacturing. We both have keen interest in aquaculture but our experience goes as far as rearing ornamental fish. I do not know how else to get hands-on experience in a fish farm unless I go and work in one which I doubt will happen. We plan to attend a few trainings and basically get our hands dirty immediately.
I have closed friends who have experience in aquaculture so they would be able to help out. Moreover, the farm is already being operated by 3 Indons and they basically do everything from changing water to harvesting the fish. The owner of the farm has also agreed to guide us for a couple of weeks to get ourselves familiar in managing the fund.
We have done cashflow projections for 3 years so basically we will know how long our capital can last.
We definitely won't know the real reason the owner is selling the farm but he claims he is retiring.... so can't really say much about that.
QUOTE(MrFarmer @ Mar 28 2012, 09:30 PM)
Hi Elmer,
Looking at your questions, I am wondering if you have any hands-on experience in running a fish farm (or such a big scale). Not trying to "pour cold water", but do consider an exit plan just in case things don't goes according to your plan. It's very easy to "buy into" a venture, but very difficult to exit, especially if it is not doing well.
Am sure you would have work out your budgeting and funding for your project, since you mentioned 60K/ mth = 720K/year. Your rolling capital, mean time to harvest, etc.
Also it might be interesting to verify the reasons for the sale of the farm.
Standard reasons are most probably getting old, retiring, sickness, no children wants to take over, migrating...blah, blah....
Personally, I do not have any experience in agriculture/aquaculture.
Was in Ipoh a few months back, there is this guy that deliver Red Tilapia to Ipoh. Story is that their boss got a permit to rear these fishes at a dam in upper Perak and under their "agreement" certain % is for export and certain % needs to to sold off locally. He is doing the local sales, frozen Tilapia both wholesale & retail.
Good luck. Would sure like to visit your new farm.
Added on March 28, 2012, 9:54 pmThanks for your suggestion MJ, unfortunately there is only a small creek at my farm, where I had widen it to a pool at a certain section. There is practically no water current and water level is below the land about 10 to 15 feet (depending on the season).
Wind turbine/ Solar panel is not an option as it's quite costly, need continuous wind current, theft & etc.
I think I may be able to grasp your idea. But then rain collection troughs interfere/compete with sunlight. Hope to have this system working especially during drought season. And mobility.
So far, I am thinking of using a standard 25 liter tank (from discarded herbicide) attach a 4 mm tube to a micro drip. As I had not find out about the flow rate /pressure of the micro drips, rough guess a 25 liter could last for 4 ~ 6 days before refilling. Could use a wheelbarrow or a truck to drive to the pool, refill , then distribute the tanks. Or run the pump, use hose to fill up all tanks. What do you think?
This post has been edited by elmer: Mar 29 2012, 05:33 PM