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 Venturing into Agriculture & Aquaculture, Co-Ordination & Implementation is KEY

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elmer
post Dec 27 2011, 10:08 AM

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I need input from all the sifus here. I have an offer to take over an existing 8 Acres of fish farm. Farm has been running for 2 yrs and has another 8 years on the lease for the land (still renewable after that). Farm has been rearing mainly Tilapias and a bit of Soon Hock. There are a total of 8 ponds there. Owner is selling the whole business for about RM 300 k and he will give everything lock, stock and barrel including the pumps, generators, and everything that he has built for the farm.

Can anyone tell me if Tilapia still have big demands out there? According to him, the demand is more than supply currently. Also let me know if 300k is fair value to take over his business.
elmer
post Mar 28 2012, 11:02 AM

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My partner and I are looking into venturing into the aquaculture industry. We have identified an 8 acre land that is currently farming red tilapia. We are planning to acquire the farm and take over the existing business. There are currently 8 ponds. 6 big pond which the owner says can rear anything from 20000 - 40000 tilapia and another 2 ponds that we can use to rear fingerlings.

I need to know how profitable this business is and whether its a good venture to get into. Both me and my partner will be managing the farm full time. The running cost of the farm currently is about RM 60k/ mth and 90% of that cost comes from feed (about 1000 bags/ mth). We are hoping to harvest at least 15 tons of fish each month.

My questions are:
1. Is tilapia prices stable? We have an agreement from the feed supplier that if we take the feed from them, they will buy our fish but I'm not too sure if the price is stable.
2. What are the risk when venturing into this business?
3. Is demand for tilapia now more than supply?

I would greatly appreciate any feedbacks from forummers here. Would also be interested to visit existing Tilapia farms out there.

Thanks in advance
elmer
post Mar 29 2012, 05:26 PM

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Thanks for your comments Michael. Basically the middle men takes back the fish live. They will come to collect it with their 3 tonne lorry that is equipped with aerators. Most likely they are supplying to restaurants where they can get a good price for them.

We are trying to understand the risk involved in the business as neither me or my partner has experience in it. This is why I posted in this forum. Infact today I just brought over an experience farmer to the fish farm to gauge to see if the business is viable.

I understand that in any business there will be many risk involved, otherwise everyone would be doing business. There will also be plenty of ways to reduce risk with the right knowledge. Risk that are out of our control will be tough to mitigate but with experience, perhaps we could bring down the cost of production and increase quality.

I foresee that demand will remain high since population growth is certain but it also depends on the number of players that will take up the venture. If the market becomes oversaturated, then prices goes down and most farmers will suffer. The tilapia will be 100% pellet fed and if pellet feed keeps increasing in price each year and the price of fish keeps dropping, I don't see any sense in its economics, unless we become flooded with cheap tilapias from thailand or china.

well I hope to ROI in 1 - 2 years and perhaps do about 20 - 30% profit

QUOTE(Michael J. @ Mar 28 2012, 04:52 PM)
Elmer:

Based on current trends, tilapia prices are stable, but gradually reducing, especially for frozen whole fish. Live fish gets better prices, but are niche markets. The best market are with processed fillets.

There are many risks involved with any kind of aquaculture business. Maybe you should have identified them ahead first. It is good that the feed supplier has guaranteed buyback. Some of the most common risks include:

(i) Disease outbreak - particular concern in high density earthen pond cultures
(ii) Policy risks - Eg. tilapia from China got barred from entering Europe due to antibiotic residues; same concern in Vietnam and Thailand
(iii) Market risk - Although prices are relatively stable, and demand is still comparatively high, there is a real risk of the market being flooded in the near future (<5 years). In such a case, producers with the lowest cost and highest quality will thrive

Demand now is still higher than supply, due to tilapia being a cheap fish compared to other white fish. The same can't be said in the next 5 years. Just look at what happened with salmon prices; it nearly halved after large scale aquaculture took place. But as wild fisheries begin to dwindle, this species will play a more significant role in the market place. A case in point: I went to inspect some markets to gauge the production and demand of cultured fish species a couple weeks back. Cultured siakap, pompano and catfish were piled prominently on the tables, but couldn't find red tilapia. When asked the wholesalers, they said "all sold out".

But why shouldn't it be completely sold out? With prices of marine fishes hitting the high double digits per kg, it is no surprise. I mean, even cultured siakap was being sold at about RM20 per kg wholesale. Catfish sells cheap (African catfish and pangasius sells for low single digits per kg), but their taste and texture really can't replace those of white fish like snapper, pomfret, or bream. Also, cultured catfish tend to be fatty, so less flesh is available per kg compared to lean fish like tilapia.

But really, Elmer, what kind of returns do you hope to get? 20% or more?
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Added on March 29, 2012, 5:33 pmHi Mr. Farmer,

My partner and I definitely do not have hands-on experience in running a fish farm. I'm from the IT background and he is from manufacturing. We both have keen interest in aquaculture but our experience goes as far as rearing ornamental fish. I do not know how else to get hands-on experience in a fish farm unless I go and work in one which I doubt will happen. We plan to attend a few trainings and basically get our hands dirty immediately.

I have closed friends who have experience in aquaculture so they would be able to help out. Moreover, the farm is already being operated by 3 Indons and they basically do everything from changing water to harvesting the fish. The owner of the farm has also agreed to guide us for a couple of weeks to get ourselves familiar in managing the fund.

We have done cashflow projections for 3 years so basically we will know how long our capital can last.

We definitely won't know the real reason the owner is selling the farm but he claims he is retiring.... so can't really say much about that.

QUOTE(MrFarmer @ Mar 28 2012, 09:30 PM)
Hi Elmer,
Looking at your questions, I am wondering if you have any hands-on experience in running a fish farm (or such a big scale). Not trying to "pour cold water", but do consider an exit plan just in case things don't goes according to your plan. It's very easy to "buy into" a venture, but very difficult to exit, especially if it is not doing well.

Am sure you would have work out your budgeting and funding for your project, since you mentioned 60K/ mth = 720K/year. Your rolling capital, mean time to harvest, etc.

Also it might be interesting to verify the reasons for the sale of the farm.
Standard reasons are most probably getting old, retiring, sickness, no children wants to take over, migrating...blah, blah....

Personally, I do not have any experience in agriculture/aquaculture.
Was in Ipoh a few months back, there is this guy that deliver Red Tilapia to Ipoh. Story is that their boss got a permit to rear these fishes at a dam in upper Perak and under their "agreement" certain % is for export and certain % needs to to sold off locally. He is doing the local sales, frozen Tilapia both wholesale & retail.
Good luck. Would sure like to visit your new farm.


Added on March 28, 2012, 9:54 pm
Thanks for your suggestion MJ, unfortunately there is only a small creek at my farm, where I had widen it to a pool at a certain section. There is practically no water current and water level is below the land about 10 to 15 feet (depending on the season).
Wind turbine/ Solar panel is not an option as it's quite costly, need continuous wind current, theft & etc.

I think I may be able to grasp your idea. But then rain collection troughs interfere/compete with sunlight. Hope to have this system working especially during drought season. And mobility.

So far, I am thinking of using a standard 25 liter tank (from discarded herbicide) attach a 4 mm tube to a micro drip. As I had not find out about the flow rate /pressure of the micro drips, rough guess a 25 liter could last for 4 ~ 6 days before refilling. Could use a wheelbarrow or a truck to drive to the pool, refill , then distribute the tanks. Or run the pump, use hose to fill up all tanks. What do you think?
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This post has been edited by elmer: Mar 29 2012, 05:33 PM
elmer
post Mar 30 2012, 03:07 PM

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Hi Michael,

No worries. No hard feelings from me. It was indeed good that you could present your points honestly and objectively so that I know what I am getting into.

My partner and I have been working for the past 8 - 9 years and we left our cushy high paying jobs to work for ourselves. We understand that we won't be able to enjoy high salaries for the first few years but we want to know if this is a business we can build long term and eventually make it big.

That example you provided on the company that is doing Tilapia fillets and are now 100% export oriented is what we want to eventually aim for. I do not want to get into this business if it will just basically put food on the table and nothing more. So really, at the end of the day, there is big potential in the business but its just how big you want to grow it and how well you manage it.

Thanks again for your insights. They really provide me with a great overview of the current trends in the industry.

QUOTE(Michael J. @ Mar 29 2012, 05:57 PM)
Elmer:

My apologies if we sounded a little antagonistic, but we really meant well. Aquaculture, like agriculture, is a sensitive business influenced by many external factors. But again, we're all in this together to learn from each other, so hope there isn't any hard feelings.

If they are collecting live fish, then most likely it is for restaurants or for processing. Since they are a feed company, I'm thinking it could be the latter, as the by product from the fish could be used to produce fish feeds.

I agree with your observation on population growth and demand for cheaper sources of proteins. And I also agree that too many players in the market will lead to sharp price reductions. However, I also believe that there will be a stablizing factor which will keep things in balance.

Just so happens I'm currently doing an analysis of the Malaysian aquaculture industry. Actually, the current prices of tilapia is no secret. Fresh frozen whole tilapia from China sells for around US$1.50, or about RM4.60 a kg. Top grade tilapia flesh from Taiwan (sashimi grade) sells for almost 3 times that figure. This is wholesale price. I believe, there are enough niches for producers to tackle. I know of one particular company producing tilapia, and they have vertically integrated a processing plant near their site. They used to do domestic and regional sale, but now are 100% export oriented, producing tilapia fillets. Latest I heard, their venture was so successful that they are expanding into marine shrimp culture also, with a double digit million ringgit investment. FYI, this company has only been doing this for about 5 years.

From the analysis I've been doing so far, most aquaculture companies are no longer focused on raw material production, i.e. just producing fish. Many are actually merging their businesses with other companies focus on different peripheries of the trade, eg. logistics, feedmill, processing and marketing/distribution. This is the emerging trend in aquaculture businesses. Case in point, Gold Coin (feed producer) recently acquired Sy Aqua, which is a marine shrimp R&D and production unit based in Thailand, and together, they will be going into shrimp aquaculture in a big way. There have been some talk about further expansion within ASEAN too.

However, I'm not too sure if 20-30% is a realistic figure... This 20-30% figure has already factored in amortization of capital items?
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elmer
post Apr 2 2012, 11:31 AM

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Michael:

Thanks for your insights again. You definitely are an expert in this field. We have to probably take small baby steps before moving into value added products as producing those products comes with a big cost. Indeed that is where we want to be headed if that is where the money is. I guess farming tilapia would be a good place to start.

The world population is definitely increasing and people are living longer. I see that the demand will only increase for fresh fish especially when harvesting from the wild will soon be no longer a viable option. Thanks again and wish us luck! I will keep you guys updated on our progress.

QUOTE(Michael J. @ Mar 30 2012, 09:30 PM)
Elmer:

Ah, great then. The desire to pursue after a greater ambition is indeed a good thing.

If your intention is to do value-added products, then yes, the opportunities are great. The demand for value-added products flip-flops between the US and Europe, meaning some years US has over-the-top demand, but then some years (like 2011 and 2012), the demand drops drastically (nearly 14% drop in demand). You may have already known, aquaculture in Malaysia is growing at about 14% a year, but is expected to slow down a little by 2015 to about 9% growth per annum. So for any player who intends to do only what I'd call "raw material production", the competition will be quite stiff. Value-added products have the great benefit of being able to move between markets more easily, have a more stable pricing, and are less prone to legislation threats.

From what I can see, a lot of consumers in the US and Europe are moving away from pricey fish species like sea bass and seaperch, and buying up more pangasius and tilapia. Asia Pacific, on the other hand, seem to be going for higher-valued fish, like barramundi and grouper. But whatever the case is, fish in US and Europe is pricey; in the US, tilapia fillets sell for US$11 per kg (about RM33) retail.

Para:

You are right that RAS requires economies of scale, and that the costs can be high. But it does solve many other issues, like taste, quality, disease control, labor etc. Also, RAS allows you to flip between different cultures quite easily.
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elmer
post Apr 4 2012, 10:49 AM

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Michael,

After much deliberation, we are thinking of cutting down our risk and moving into higher value fish with lower operating cost. We have identified a smaller farm that is now rearing tilapia as well as marble goby. Can I get your opinion on the marketability of marble goby and what sort of risk factors to look out for. The farm will be smaller and opex will be significantly lower. The farm has 3 ponds - 2 big one (half an acre) and one small one (quarter acre). We are thinking to breed live feed (small fish or shrimps) for food source in the smaller pond and grow out the marble goby in floating cages in the bigger ponds so that personal attention can be given to each fish. We realize mortality in marble goby is pretty low so special care needs to be taken to check the fish for disease.

Your thoughts on this will be much appreciated.

QUOTE(Michael J. @ Apr 2 2012, 01:06 PM)
Para:

Yes, you can swith from one culture to another. But I should clarify that by "flip", I mean after a few years of one culture, flip to another. If want to alternate between years, it is more difficult to maintain.

Also, the success of flipping from freshwater to marine culture depends on the availability of acceptable quality, cheap marine salt. My opinion, however, if not to do a full marine culture, but a brackish water culture instead (brackish water is like river mouth water, partly marine, partly freshwater). Species suitable for this sort of culture include many species of bream and porgies, grunts, and some snappers. All these fish have very high wholesale and retail values, are quite disease tolerant, and have strong, ready demand domestically and internationally. The major shortfall is availability of fingerlings (except snappers like Mangrove Jacks). Some, like the grunts (aka gerut) have abundant wildstock, while breams and porgies are less common but still available.

Elmer:

Yes, please do update us from time to time. It would be good to have your inputs.
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