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 USD/MYR v4

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cherroy
post Dec 5 2016, 09:57 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 5 2016, 07:25 PM)
2 option :

1. Buying shares in foreign currency with high dividend yield counters and bank instruments
2. Buying shares in RM with high dividend yield counters (including export counters) and bank instruments

In the past 1.5 years, in RM terms, #1 gives me ~23% return. #2 only ~6%

Definitely #1 is a better hedge against inflation and preserving purchasing power
*
I have more mixed result between the 2, with time frame of 7-10 years.

1. Some foreign denominated asset still making a loss or at par only. (even after converting to weak RM). While some indeed magnificent gain.
2. Definitely more than 6% pa within this time frame.

Fundamentally, the most important is the underlying asset that able to protect the purchasing power.
Bought wrong foreign shares in foreign currencies, result can be worst as well. eg. airline stocks, O&G stocks etc.

There are plenty of avenue to hedge a weak RM, not necessary must through foreign share with foreign currencies.
There are also local feeder funds that feed into overseas fund/asset, they also gain from weak RM similar to (1), just in a indirect way.



AVFAN
post Dec 5 2016, 10:07 PM

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new relevant reads:

QUOTE
Foreign selling widened to RM780.5 mil last week, says MIDF Research
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/f...s-midf-research

M’sian October exports seen falling again
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...-falling-again/

TOMEI-R
post Dec 5 2016, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Dec 5 2016, 07:18 PM)
Too bad confidence building does not belong to BNM alone. In fact the large part is not in their control. They can only fire fight, like now.

We need a total disaster and melt down, only then we can re-build the confidence from ground up.

With the current economic structure, I don't think we have any chance

I don't know whether I can see it in my life time or not. I hope I can witness the history
*
Are u trying to say we need another 1997 econmic crisis? Well I dont think its going to happen. But it would be disastrous if it were to happen again for all. Question is how prepared we are in the event if it really do come?
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 06:41 AM

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Good morning all,

RM stayed against USD this morning.

RM weakened slightly against the AUD this morning.

RM weakened HEAVILY against the SGD this morning. Look at the curve :-
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGDMYR%3DX&t=1d

BUT..........the AUD WEAKENED against the SGD this morning !!!!!!!!
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AUDS...DSGD=X;range=1d

There is some very logical interpretation from the above,...
SUSthe99percent1
post Dec 6 2016, 06:52 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 5 2016, 08:49 PM)
i have a real example.

in jan 2015, i bought some SGD with RM.

rate at that time was, on my record, 2.6765.

if i want RM today, i will get, on my broker data today, rate of 3.0885.

no interest, but 15% net over 2 years in RM terms.

ok or not? biggrin.gif

*
Dont be silly, you are not gaining much at all. With ringgit depreciation means other things will rise, namely inflation, housing prices and general cost of living..
CKKwan
post Dec 6 2016, 06:56 AM

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QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 6 2016, 06:52 AM)
Dont be silly, you are not gaining much at all. With ringgit depreciation means other things will rise, namely inflation, housing prices and general cost of living..
*
If you can win the inflation, you have already won.
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 07:19 AM

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QUOTE(CKKwan @ Dec 6 2016, 06:56 AM)
If you can win the inflation, you have already won.
*
Yes, it will be a good step,.. and if bro AV can get : 15% net over 2 years in RM terms,.. I think can cover the normal inflation, staying in the city.

However,... comparing against an earlier method quoted by another forummer who recommended investing in Msian export counters to hedge against inflation,.. then cannot meet normal inflation if staying in the city.


cherroy
post Dec 6 2016, 07:51 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 07:19 AM)
Yes, it will be a good step,.. and if bro AV can get : 15% net over 2 years in RM terms,.. I think can cover the normal inflation, staying in the city.

However,... comparing against an earlier method quoted by another forummer who recommended investing in Msian export counters to hedge against inflation,.. then cannot meet normal inflation if staying in the city.
*
The exporter share price rise more than 30% over the last 2~3 year time frame

Ok, I get the logic message is
people invested in local exporter in RM that gain 30% in RM cannot cover inflation,
while the 15% gain in RM by converting to SGD can cover. biggrin.gif

Whatever RM is bad, invested in gold in RM also cannot cover inflation.
Everything must convert.... bruce.gif biggrin.gif

The 15% gain, the net gain is 9%, as there is a yield spread of 3.5% pa. of RM
Same with exporter share price, gain, net gain achieved is 23% due to opportunity yield.


Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 08:08 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 07:51 AM)
The exporter share price rise more than 30% over the last 2~3 year time frame

Ok, I get the logic message is
people invested in local exporter in RM that gain 30% in RM cannot cover inflation,
while the 15% gain in RM by converting to SGD can cover.  biggrin.gif

Whatever RM is bad, invested in gold in RM also cannot cover inflation.
Everything must convert.... bruce.gif  biggrin.gif

The 15% gain, the net gain is 9%, as there is a yield spread of 3.5% pa. of RM
Same with exporter share price, gain, net gain achieved is 23% due to opportunity yield.
*
Well, since you replied me and are willingly doing so,.. okay-lar,.. biggrin.gif

People who convert into the SGD should not be laying their funds in cash only, as you assumed earlier, come on, bro....

At least now we have a figure. With a figure of an exporter share rice rising over 30% in the last two or three years can easily be beaten with SG REITs and instruments,.... biggrin.gif,.... but it's good if an Msian exporter share can oerform like that. If you wish to be helpful, please tell us the counter.

Of course, must convert,.. if don't convert, how to spend in Msia ?? biggrin.gif Unless one intends to spend overseas, and perhaps intend to enjoy a life overseas in future, or for the children to study overseas, of course, must convert back to use in MY. That is the whole point of this discussion, right ?

Who asked yu to change at the money-changer ? biggrin.gif biggrin.gif One of the skills involved in investing overseas si also to know :-

1) All the most effective mechanisms to convert your funds in and out.

On top of taxation in the different countries, which I have talked about earlier,....

Tell me : why would you not want to diversify your currency holdings into other currencies if you are already earning the RM in this country ? Tell me without saying that we should, but the way I did it earlier was an allegation,... smile.gif
prophetjul
post Dec 6 2016, 08:37 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Dec 6 2016, 07:51 AM)
The exporter share price rise more than 30% over the last 2~3 year time frame

Ok, I get the logic message is
people invested in local exporter in RM that gain 30% in RM cannot cover inflation,
while the 15% gain in RM by converting to SGD can cover.  biggrin.gif

Whatever RM is bad, invested in gold in RM also cannot cover inflation.
Everything must convert.... bruce.gif  biggrin.gif

The 15% gain, the net gain is 9%, as there is a yield spread of 3.5% pa. of RM
Same with exporter share price, gain, net gain achieved is 23% due to opportunity yield.
*
Well........gold was MYR1150 in 2002

It's MYR5400 now.........................
Ramjade
post Dec 6 2016, 09:23 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 08:08 AM)
Who asked yu to change at the money-changer ?  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif  One of the skills involved in investing overseas si also to know :-

1) All the most effective mechanisms to convert your funds in and out.
*
Please share your effective "mechanism". notworthy.gif I thought money changer is the cheapest? hmm.gif
Avangelice
post Dec 6 2016, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 6 2016, 09:23 AM)
Please share your effective "mechanism". notworthy.gif I thought money changer is the cheapest?  hmm.gif
*
yes good question. or maybe he is saying buy straight in a foreign fund but wouldn't conversion be based on bank rates and we all know bank rates are expensive
AVFAN
post Dec 6 2016, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 6 2016, 06:52 AM)
Dont be silly, you are not gaining much at all. With ringgit depreciation means other things will rise, namely inflation, housing prices and general cost of living..
*
QUOTE(CKKwan @ Dec 6 2016, 06:56 AM)
If you can win the inflation, you have already won.
*
both excellent comments! biggrin.gif

some think achieving 15% over 2 years or 7.5% pa is silly.

some think that is a winner.

due to very varied expectations, experience and risks taking.

the fact that the FD thread is now v14 and is one of the most popular threads in LYN say something, doesn't it?

and currently, 4% pa attracts a lot of people, incl me!


i oversimplified the real example case when i said "15% over 2 years".

the money wasn't kept under the pillow. i don't keep cash idle, nobody should.

it was put in sgreits, earned another 11% in dividends in 2 years, no cap gains.

so, total was 26% in 2 years or 13% pa.

now, that's certainly ok, no?! tongue.gif


essence of the story - those who took action to protect their life savings with major fx denominated but low-mid risks methods in the last few years achieved good results.

question is will it continue? that, with this 2 yr old thread into v4, u hv to make yr own mind or come back here only to read in a couple of years.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Dec 6 2016, 09:49 AM
Ramjade
post Dec 6 2016, 09:45 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 6 2016, 09:44 AM)
yes good question. or maybe he is saying buy straight in a foreign fund but wouldn't conversion be based on bank rates and we all know bank rates are expensive
*
Actually I found a rather cheap way to move funds. Bitcoins. But it all depends on BTC/USD movement.
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 09:50 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 6 2016, 09:23 AM)
Please share your effective "mechanism". notworthy.gif I thought money changer is the cheapest?  hmm.gif
*
Yes,... bro, onshore, money-changer is the cheapest,... thumbsup.gif you have to think of ways on how to convert out using the cheapest way, and then reconvert back if you needed the funds in RM, again using the cheapest way without the institution eating too many pips.
Ramjade
post Dec 6 2016, 09:53 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 09:50 AM)
Yes,... bro, onshore, money-changer is the cheapest,... :thumbsup: you have to think of ways on how to convert out using the cheapest way, and then reconvert back if you needed the funds in RM, again using the cheapest way without the institution eating too many pips.
*
Yes. We know that (money changer being the cheapest). The question is what other "ways" are consider cheap?
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(Avangelice @ Dec 6 2016, 09:44 AM)
yes good question. or maybe he is saying buy straight in a foreign fund but wouldn't conversion be based on bank rates and we all know bank rates are expensive
*
hmm.gif.. how to answer,... pls tell me a scenario that you would like to use in order to invest, eg,... you wish to invest in an SG fund inside Sgp,... etc,... or what,.. and I will tell you how I would do it,.. smile.gif
Hansel
post Dec 6 2016, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Dec 6 2016, 09:53 AM)
Yes. We know that (money changer being the cheapest). The question is what other "ways" are consider cheap?
*
Bro,... I like your spirit,.. thumbsup.gif step-by-step,...
Ramjade
post Dec 6 2016, 09:57 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 09:55 AM)
hmm.gif.. how to answer,... pls tell me a scenario that you would like to use in order to invest, eg,... you wish to invest in an SG fund inside Sgp,... etc,... or what,.. and I will tell you how I would do it,..  smile.gif
*
I want to know the cheapest way to transfer money out other than money changer for someone who have no priority banking (even if I have the money, I won't go for priority banking as it waste my resources)

From my research,
(i) money-changer
(ii) bitcoins

QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 09:57 AM)
Bro,... I like your spirit,.. :thumbsup: step-by-step,...
*
Need planning. Cannot just jump in.

This post has been edited by Ramjade: Dec 6 2016, 10:00 AM
Avangelice
post Dec 6 2016, 09:59 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Dec 6 2016, 09:55 AM)
hmm.gif.. how to answer,... pls tell me a scenario that you would like to use in order to invest, eg,... you wish to invest in an SG fund inside Sgp,... etc,... or what,.. and I will tell you how I would do it,..  smile.gif
*
good question. one that I actually wanted to do.

say I open up a fundsupermart account in Singapore so I can have access to SG REIT.

option 1
I am able to open a bank account in ocbc Singapore that ties into my fsm SG account (very impossible now a days to open a bank account) so I go through money exchangers in Malaysia to switch myr to SG

option 2
i open a maybank foreign account do I convert through the bank?

option 3
Telegraphic transfer

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